Do low census numbers truly indicate scarcity or simply low popularity/interest?

[alecholland]

Has CGC been in business long enough now that census numbers may truly reflect the rarity of certain books/titles? Or, are some titles simply so unpopular that people don't bother to send those books in to be graded? I believe there is some of both, but I'm interested in getting some current opinions from board members, specifically with regard to GA and early SA books.

[DrWatson]

Low census numbers mean low submissions. It is not necessarily an indicator of scarcity. There could be thousands of raw books out there.

[Sal]

Low census numbers mean low submissions. It is not necessarily an indicator of scarcity. There could be thousands of raw books out there.

 

That's exactly what I was going to post.

[capt_comics]

But probably not with GA and early SA - I would suspect by now this would indicate scarcity in regards to most of these issues.

 

Certainly on anything worth $100 or more

 

 

[Mr. Zipper]

I think the census is a reliable indicator of scarcity in books over a certain price threshhold. What that threshhold is, I have no idea. But, it makes sense to me that value of book, moreso than age, is what drives submissions and is the number one factor in the submission decision-making process.

[DrWatson]

But probably not with GA and early SA - I would suspect by now this would indicate scarcity in regards to most of these issues.

 

I would disagree with that. Who knows how many book are sitting in private collections that may never be slabbed. Maybe a little in regards to GA, but certainly not SA.

[Mr. Zipper]

But probably not with GA and early SA - I would suspect by now this would indicate scarcity in regards to most of these issues.

 

There are thousands of different GA and SA books with no or few submissions. They may not be rare at all. Just might be the books are almost worthless, so why spend $$ getting it slabbed?

[cd4ever]

I think the low census numbers = scarcity for keys.

Non-keys, it just indicates lack of interest in submitting.

[capt_comics]

There certainly may be more SA sitting in private collections, but I still think as regards to late 50s and early 60s books there is some correlation to numbers in the census and scarcity, generally speaking.

 

[sckao]

 

I think it's partly a chicken and egg syndrome unless you're submitting for a personal collection.

 

1) Some people submit only for books that have a history of high prices

 

2) Some people will NOT submit unless there are specific holes in a run of books which would indicate that there is a market for that book (which does NOT have a price history.)

 

An example of this would be Vintage Magnuses 2-4 which were not in the census in 9.8 but which are pursued by any number of Valiant Pre-Unity collectors.

 

So if you're dealing in slabs, you're taking a chance on slabbing a book if there is no perceived "desire" for it and no price history.

 

The CGC registry is actually a big driving force for slab pricing.

 

 

[brasseye]

Well it's a fair assumption to say the bulk of the high grades are in in pretty much accounted for. But even in recent years collections have turned up that break the mold.

The Hollywood Hills collection had 3 deep in some prime SA Marvel issues, all 9.0-9.6, and all predominantly white pages. And on a book by book basis would make the Curator, and Pacific Coast books, look like grandma's thumbed TV guide from 1983.

[capt_comics]

Well as regards non superhero books ... sure

 

I'm sure there are 1950s Dells that are very plentiful, as we all know, but who is going to send these in.

 

 

[GACollectibles]

I also think there is a substanntial group of GA collectors who have no interest in slabbing.

[capt_comics]

I also think there is a substanntial group of GA collectors who have no interest in slabbing.

 

I would agree

 

 

[evilsly]

the census is most use at showing comics that are a lot more common than would be expected

 

FF 48, Hulk 181 etc

 

of course the pricing of these issues shows that people don't pay too much attention to the census.

 

 

[alecholland]

Low census numbers mean low submissions. It is not necessarily an indicator of scarcity. There could be thousands of raw books out there.

 

That's exactly my thinking too, but often times I will see an auction/sale that uses statements like "only 3 copies in the census!" and "hard to find" in what appears to be an effort to help sell their book. In my mind it may just be that no one cares about having their copy of [insert non-key, relatively common, unpopular title of book] graded.

 

Part of what prompted my question is that it would seem some people use the census as a gauge to determine scarcity, but I'm not sure that it is a reliable gauge. At least not yet.

[brasseye]

Part of what prompted my question is that it would seem some people use the census as a gauge to determine scarcity, but I'm not sure that it is a reliable gauge. At least not yet.

 

At high grade, that would be YES.

Ever taken a look at CGC 9.4/9.6/9.8 GA, SA, BA book, then had a look at the book you picked up from the LCS last week and read. Two very differnent looking books.

[cd4ever]

Low census numbers mean low submissions. It is not necessarily an indicator of scarcity. There could be thousands of raw books out there.

 

That's exactly my thinking too, but often times I will see an auction/sale that uses statements like "only 3 copies in the census!" and "hard to find" in what appears to be an effort to help sell their book. In my mind it may just be that no one cares about having their copy of Incredible Hulk 181 graded.

 

Part of what prompted my question is that it would seem some people use the census as a gauge to determine scarcity, but I'm not sure that it is a reliable gauge. At least not yet.

 

Fixed that for ya.

[DrWatson]

Low census numbers mean low submissions. It is not necessarily an indicator of scarcity. There could be thousands of raw books out there.

 

That's exactly my thinking too, but often times I will see an auction/sale that uses statements like "only 3 copies in the census!" and "hard to find" in what appears to be an effort to help sell their book. In my mind it may just be that no one cares about having their copy of [insert non-key, relatively common, unpopular title of book] graded.

 

Part of what prompted my question is that it would seem some people use the census as a gauge to determine scarcity, but I'm not sure that it is a reliable gauge. At least not yet.

The census is a good tool in determining scarcity in grade for submitted books, but not the scarcity of a book in general. People who use that in advertising are just trying to make a bigger buck.

 

We have been talking about Uncanny X-Men 212 9.8 with white pages lately. The book isn't rare by any stretch of the imagination, but given the numbers that have been slabbed, I would say that it is scarce in grade because out of the 432 books graded, only 4% are 9.8s.

[worldsbestcomics]

The CGC registry is actually a big driving force for slab pricing.

 

I think this is particularly true for copper and modern books. I have seen a number of books take a big jump in demand immediately after they were added to the Registry.

 

It also shows up in books that are scarce in 9.8 and where there are a lot of collectors with registered runs. Shin mentioned the Vintage Magnus 2-4 and there are several other non-key pre-Unity Valiants that sell at premium prices.

 

One area where I am seeing it some now is Wolverine. All these books are fairly common but a few are scarce in 9.8 and sell for $50+. The first 9.8 copy of Wolverine 35 will sell for over $200 so check your longboxes gentlemen.

[ and PM me if you find one]