The $2000 Riddle

[Artemaria]

Saw this auction on the 'Bay

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&rd=1&item=320244714175&ssPageName=STRK:MEWA:IT&ih=011

 

And it caused me to think - a good amount - about our little hobby.

 

As noted in the auction, the seller's grandfather bought the page for $2,000 (I'm taking this at face value, but it could be a marketing ploy). The page is over 50 years old and involves a character that I never heard of, but which apparently enjoyed some popularity in his day, but was written off in 1949.

 

The $2000 Riddle (so named because that's what the grandfather allegedly paid for the page, but not what the son got back) is whether every single page, which seems so valuable to us collectors today, will follow this trend? Will each page lose 90% of its value because the characters that we enjoy so much and these rare pages that we chase so ferverently will be meaningless to future generations?

 

One possible response is that comics have changed tremendously over the years. Before comics were just entertainment in and of themselves, but now they are a breeding grounds for multi-million dollar entertainment franchises. So, for example, it is unlikely that this will happen to Spiderman because, now that Marvel is in the movie business, Spiderman will always be around.

 

And, I agree with this, I really do.

 

But what if this is wrong?

 

And what about the next big thing?

 

Just as Spiderman either replaced (or is in the process of replacing) Superman as the world's most cognizable superhero, isn't it possible that someone will create yet another hero that will make us forget all about Spidey (this is ignoring the OMD storyline, where we are supposed to forget all about the last two decades of Spidey anyway).

 

Another consideration is whether comics will continue to exist as a medium. There are already significant strides to move to fully digital comics. Since printing costs are now a considerable portion of the expense of comics, and an alternative and much much cheaper distribution medium exists (i.e.: the internet) what is the guarantee that comics - in their current form - will survive another generation?

 

And if comics go, will there be any interest in demand in original comic art? Will there be an interest or demand in the relics of a former art form? Will comics survive if they are just another option of entertainment on the ever expanding internet?

 

I'm looking forward to the group's thoughts on the $2000 riddle.

 

Thanks.

 

- A

[Spider-Variant]

You bring up some interesting discussion points. First, let me say right up front I do not believe anyone ever paid $2000 dollars for this piece. To imply one's grandfather bought this long ago for $2000 dollars I find a bit too much of a stretch. (Ok, I only glanced at the auction. I assume this was the claim). Hell, to even imply one's grandfather bought it today for that much is beyond my gullibility (is that a word).

 

But the points of your thread bear merit regardless of the authenticity of the auction.

 

I don't see the value lowering to the extent that 90% is gone. There are too many interested parties. Even if comics ceased to exist, I still think that values would at least hold their own.

 

Of course, I've been wrong about a lot of things.

 

Good thread. Let's hear what the more OA savvy crowd says.

[comix4fun]

The seller is lying or totally clueless

 

Here is a link to where his "Grandfather" bought it.

 

http://comics.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=818&Lot_No=4197&src=pr#Photo

 

 

That is a Heritage Auction sticker in the ebay auction.

 

He bought the page for $115 in 2005 and got $224 today with a snake oil salesman line.

 

C

[comix4fun]

Oh and even if I did not find the heritage information there is zero chance this would have cost more than $2 in 1949 much less $2000.

 

To translate $2000 into today's value.

 

In 1949 it took the average American 9 months to make $2000

 

In 1949 $2000 was 30% more than the cost of a new car.

 

In 1949 $2000 would give you a 25% downpayment on a new house.

 

So no chance that story was true regardless.

 

C

[Mighty Hal]

Thanks, comix4fun, for the detective work. Instead of losing 90% of his investment, this seller realized a greater than 90% profit (if you discount shipping costs and the Heritage cut) -- with the help of a "riddle".

 

Like Artemaria, I've also wondered about the long-term prospects of our hobby. We've all seen how prices take a jump for a "hot" property and we've all seen prices nosedive when the property cools off. (Says a guy that owns a Liefeld X-Force DPS.)

 

That's a month-to-month thing, or a year-to-year thing, but it's not a long-term issue. Prices for OA have gotten so hot that there may be a correction in the future but I don't think we'll see a major price dump.

 

If comic books went away, I think trade paperbacks would remain in print. Even if TPs went away, the stories and their digital images will remain. As long as the stories and artwork can attract an audience, there will be people that want to own the original artwork. People like Artemaria and me.

 

So I don't worry too much about our OA losing a great deal of value. Instead, I'm concerned that the ever-hotter prices may lead to an increase in forgeries...and that would truly hurt our hobby.

[Artemaria]

Well, gentlemen, you bring up some excellent points. And the detective work certainly illuminates that this this particular story was not entirely accurate.

 

However, -- thinking long term, and to me at least - the proposition remains the same, and I'm not sure that time (think decades) will necessarily help the hobby.

 

As a short term example, I've heard a story about someone who paid 40K for the entire first issue of X-Force 1. Which, at the time was one of the hottest books around. However, it may not be worth quite that much today.

 

I'm sad to see anyone lose money on a hobby they love, but it is an accelerated version of the $2000 riddle. If no one cares about X-Force today, there is no demand. If no one cares about Spiderman tomorrow, there is no demand. If no one cares about comics tomorrow, there will be no demand.

 

If there is no demand, then prices respond.

 

While it is impossible to predict what will happen to an entire industry, there are a great many more things competing for a young individual's attention today than there ever were before in any low point in comics history. Video games, internet, etc. And even considering the milestones made in today's printing techniques, most of the other draws are still far more visually interesting and immediately engaging than comics.

 

Considering these potential factors, it is not unthinkable, and indeed certainly possible that there may be a $2000 Riddle effect at play on OA prices at some point in the future.

 

- A

[comix4fun]

 

As a short term example, I've heard a story about someone who paid 40K for the entire first issue of X-Force 1. Which, at the time was one of the hottest books around. However, it may not be worth quite that much today.

 

 

 

While I see you point about the possibilities...the same buyer also bought the complete artwork to Jim Lee's X-men #1 at the same auction for a similiar price and what that book is worth made the purchase of the 2 books a gigantic financial plus in his favor on the balance sheet.

 

C

[thehumantorch]

I often wonder just how many ebay sellers are lying and how many are stretching the truth.

[Nexus]

Everything you suggest has validity, and it's something I've thought about as well. Ultimately, though, none of it really matters to me. I buy art mainly for nostalgia. I don't count on getting my money back out of it. That's not why I got it in the first place. If you're talking decades from now, even if the art has no value, I'm reasonably sure I'll be glad I enjoyed the art and the hobby during my lifetime.

 

Nobody wants to lose money. I understand that. At the same time, I just got a piece that I paid a "stupid" amount of money on. I'm not sure there's anyone else who would pay as much. But, every time I look at it, the amount I spent is the last thing that comes to mind. That would be true of my favorite pieces. That would be true, actually, of just about every piece I own. Having said that, every piece I own falls within my budget and I was comfortable spending that amount. I didn't take out a second mortgage so I could add a Frazetta oil painting to my collection. Or a KILLING JOKE page, for that matter

 

If the person who bought X-FORCE #1 did so as an investment...well, then, he's probably screwed. If he got it simply because he wanted it, then he paid a price that made sense to him.

 

This hobby is expensive. I don't blame anyone who is concerned about potential declining values. At some point, when that becomes a big enough worry, it's probably time to choose another hobby. People drop out of the hobby all the time...it's how most art re-enters the marketplace.

 

Anyone got any nice Neal Adams art they want to dump ahead of the impending crash?

[mrpunch0]

I often wonder just how many ebay sellers are lying and how many are stretching the truth.

 

Only about 90% of them.

[jjonahjameson1]

If no one cares about X-Force today, there is no demand. If no one cares about Spiderman tomorrow, there is no demand. If no one cares about comics tomorrow, there will be no demand.

 

If there is no demand, then prices respond.

 

- A

 

I'm not terribly eloquent in text, so please bear with me as I try to get my point across...

 

To be honest with you, I'm much more concerned about the impact of supply on prices in the upcoming decades. I am in my mid-30s, roughly the same age as many collectors on this message board, and I only started collecting in 2001.

 

There are many folks that started their collections in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s that have amassed extensive stock of prime artwork, mediocre artwork, artwork by specific artists, etc. For the most part, they are a generation older than me, and they must be thinking about putting their kids through University or perhaps their own retirement. When you get to that stage in your life, original artwork becomes expendible...its just ink on paper after all and I can sell it to pay for my kids' tuition or buy me a shiny Winnebego to tour the country as a retirement gift for me and the missus in our golden years.

 

What really scares me is not the lack of demand you cited so often in your post, rather its the forthcoming abundance of supply and its impact to prices.

 

Lest we forgot, most of the artists during comics' infancy are into their 90s' or have passed on. However, the second and third generation artists are not necessarily spring chickens either. Many have substantial amounts of their own work in their possession and surely that will also add to the supply of pages available on the market once they decide to part with them. What will this do to page prices?

[Artemaria]

Y -

 

Your point is very well taken, not only is demand a concern, but supply is also a great concern. Although I just got into this hobby a year and a half ago, I've heard stories about large collection dumps and what they did to prices - one that comes to mind involves a large influx of Jack Kirby pieces into the market.

 

But at the heart of my question is not merely the issue of economic supply and demand, it's irrelevancy.

 

I love comics. And I always will. It is that love for the medium and the characters that drives me to buy a particular piece. It also appears to drive the majority of "value" in todays OA market, as pages with high nostalgia value regularly cost much much more than pages that are arguably artistically superior, but don't have the same nostalgic pull to the same economically sound readers who are well into their earning cycles.

 

But I'm not sure that the trend will continue with a new generation of readers. Or people with interest generally in comics characters other than what is in the movies.

 

Thus, if there are no more people like me coming down the pipeline, will the OA become irrelevant?

 

And therefore, less valuable?

 

- A

 

[comix4fun]

Y -

 

Your point is very well taken, not only is demand a concern, but supply is also a great concern. Although I just got into this hobby a year and a half ago, I've heard stories about large collection dumps and what they did to prices - one that comes to mind involves a large influx of Jack Kirby pieces into the market.

 

It flattened the market for about 5 years....but we are talking about a massive amount of artwork all sold in a short time period....and after that 5 year period prices rose again...and are now exploding.

 

It showed that the sudden increase in supply of quality artwork will slow the absorption rate into the collecting community but that work will get absorbed, and once it does we see what we have seen in the last 24-36 months in the Kirby market.

 

 

 

Thus, if there are no more people like me coming down the pipeline, will the OA become irrelevant?

 

And therefore, less valuable?

 

- A

 

We have a long way to go before that happens. I have seen more people, of a professional high income brackett, enter this hobby in the last 18 months than I did in the entire 5 years before it.

 

I am talking about Doctors, Lawyers, Brokers, CPA's, etc etc with high levels of income entering the hobby at the $5k per piece (and up) level immediately. They are buying from nostalgia initially but, like most of us, expand their appreciation to fine pieces of art regardless of personal attachment.

 

Comic Original Art is in it's infancy as being recognized as a serious artform. Comics have been called the "American Artform" and if you go back as little as 10 years you would find gorgeous pieces from key silver age books going for pennies...the last decade has begun to awaken the world to how wonderful this area of art is and can be. From that standpoint, the respect standpoint, we stand more at the beginning than at the end.

 

If you are talking about the generation after this one you may be right, but we are a good 20-30 years our before we really feel that impact.

 

C

[Artemaria]

C -

 

The arguments you make are notable, but I wouldn't mistake a current height in popularity of the concept of heroes as a long term move towards legitimacy of OA as an art form.

 

Certainly, you are familiar with the term "jumping the shark," which is a shorthand phrase of noting that many popular culture entertainment phenomenons (which includes comics) will peak in their popularity just before they have a precipitous fall in popularity. The term "jumping the shark" comes from the Happy Days episode when the Fonz literally water ski-jumped over a shark in one of the episodes, which apparently marked the beginning of the end of the show's popularity. Even, though, at the time, Happy Days was the highest rated show on TV.

 

As for the entry of high income professionals into the hobby, while that is an interesting statistic (as unscientific as your poll may have been), there was a similar phenomenon in the animation cell market in the early 1990s. It seemed as if everyone was buying an animation cell for 2K -20K each. They were in doctors offices and lawyers offices and were everywhere.

 

There were galleries devoted exclusively to animation cells. There were museum exhibits. There were specials, documentaries, etc. about the phenomenon of their popularity. And then it ended. If I understand correctly most of those people who bought those animation cells likely will not recover most of the money they spent.

 

And it is not 30-50 years later. This was 10 years ago.

 

Please don't mistake me for saying the sky is falling, etc. Because that is not what I'm saying. But there is precedent for the thoughts that I've been having and I'm trying to solicit all views on the subject.

 

Just some things to think about.

 

Thanks again for your great comments.

 

- A

 

 

[comix4fun]

That all makes sense and I can appreciate the caution, but I can't compare OA to animation cels.....

 

...not when animation cels had their version of the "Hunt Brothers" (from the Silver market) bidding on and bidding up everything in sight. When animation cels came up for auction nothing was hidden that certain high profile (and insanely wealthy) bidders would bid whatever it took to buy these cels.

 

It became clear in short order that these auctions could be "run up" and in the end it would cost these bidders significantly more than the previous street value of the peice with little danger to the person running up the value.

 

Certain bidder's used proxies to bid at auction for them...and they weren't shy. They would walk to the front of the room when a cel that their client wanted was offered and they would stand there with their bidding card held up without lowering it. A signal that they would get the piece no matter the number. It did not scare people away, it made them run the price up on the piece.

 

We saw cells going for 10 and 20 times their value immedialely. There was no gradual rise it was a spike. When the main couple of buyers of cels had their fill and had found the pieces they wanted they stopped buying and stopped bidding and that was when the market on those pieces crashed.

 

And yes my poll may be unscientific, but I have spent the better part of the last 15-20 years getting to know the larger collectors in the hobby and the most of the dealers are friends of mine as well, and I have bought and sold hundreds of pieces personally, and the from my own experience and the experience of friends who are collectors and dealers the topic of the "new money" is a constant among pretty much all of us.

 

I wish it were a more controlled study, that would help.

 

I worry about fast rising prices of artwork, but we seem to have a "all boats rise with the tide" mentality in this hobby. When Kirby spikes....Ditko looks inexpensive....when Ditko spikes that Wally Wood is a steal....etc etc and so on until the ebb and flow spreads across quality pieces in the hobby.

 

 

C

[Monkeyman]

I think that we can safely say that over long periods of time all pop culture goes by the boards. I don't have any idea what people were doing for entertainment 100 years. I know that pulps were popular in the 20s and 30s, but most people have forgotten about them now. The only ones that are worth a lot are those with characters still popular today (i.e. Tarzan & Conan) and those are the only ones that interest me. Same with movie paraphenalia, who's going to remember the old stars 50 or 100 years from now? They will probably only remember a few names like Charlie Chaplin and Erol Flynn and items related to them will retain some value.

 

The last comic reading generation were kids in the 80s and they are now in their 30s. That gives the hobby another 30-40 years. Maybe today's kids will latch onto it through the movies they watch, but no one knows for sure. I think that the big names like Spider-man, Superman and Batman will still be know and collectible (although maybe not at today's prices) in the future, but will ealry Ant-man appearances still sell for 100s of dollars?

 

If you want to make money you need to invest in what is popular but cheap today that future generations will decide to collect. If you are buying comic related stuff I'd say you need to make your money and get out in the next 20 years.

 

Mike

 

 

[Artemaria]

C -

 

You continue to make excellent points and I find myself agreeing with many of them.

 

Please do not misunderstand my post to imply anything negative about your statements regarding new collectors, as I find all of your comments informative and very helpful.

 

But with respect to shill bidding in animation cells being a cause of their downfall, that causes me even greater concern. Wasn't there an ASM page that went for 44K recently, after which there were many many posts on comicart-l wondering about shill bidding?

 

I also find myself agreeing with certain of the other posters that I remain in the hobby because I enjoy it so darn much, but have the nagging suspicion that a generation from now, if even that long, today's prices may not remain attaintable.

 

- A

[westform]

Personally, I think none of us has a crystal ball. I'd say buy and collect or sell according to your comfort level. Comic art while it is sort of a pseudo hobby collectible investment thingie, is also for me anyway mostly about nostalgia and cool things to look at... hey, almost like art!

 

Anyway, I see the longterm prospects as bright especially considering how the vast increases in price continue to have very little effect on how much supply there is. There are numerous reasons for this but it remains a fact, most collectors can't find enough good stuff to buy.

 

For myself, as my collection grows in value, I've taken some profits over the last year or so, but continue to buy pieces I like as well. I don't see the collection going anytime soon, and don't ignore the fact that many plan on leaving art to their kids. MIne already have collections of their own.

 

If the future of comic art worries you, then sell. If not, buy or hold. Don't look for answers or consensus,... you won't find any. DF

[jjonahjameson1]

That all makes sense and I can appreciate the caution, but I can't compare OA to animation cels.....

 

...not when animation cels had their version of the "Hunt Brothers" (from the Silver market) bidding on and bidding up everything in sight. When animation cels came up for auction nothing was hidden that certain high profile (and insanely wealthy) bidders would bid whatever it took to buy these cels.

 

It became clear in short order that these auctions could be "run up" and in the end it would cost these bidders significantly more than the previous street value of the peice with little danger to the person running up the value.

 

Certain bidder's used proxies to bid at auction for them...and they weren't shy. They would walk to the front of the room when a cel that their client wanted was offered and they would stand there with their bidding card held up without lowering it. A signal that they would get the piece no matter the number. It did not scare people away, it made them run the price up on the piece.

 

We saw cells going for 10 and 20 times their value immedialely. There was no gradual rise it was a spike. When the main couple of buyers of cels had their fill and had found the pieces they wanted they stopped buying and stopped bidding and that was when the market on those pieces crashed.

 

And yes my poll may be unscientific, but I have spent the better part of the last 15-20 years getting to know the larger collectors in the hobby and the most of the dealers are friends of mine as well, and I have bought and sold hundreds of pieces personally, and the from my own experience and the experience of friends who are collectors and dealers the topic of the "new money" is a constant among pretty much all of us.

 

I wish it were a more controlled study, that would help.

 

I worry about fast rising prices of artwork, but we seem to have a "all boats rise with the tide" mentality in this hobby. When Kirby spikes....Ditko looks inexpensive....when Ditko spikes that Wally Wood is a steal....etc etc and so on until the ebb and flow spreads across quality pieces in the hobby.

 

 

C

 

Right-O!

 

However, please keep in mind that the two largest comicbook (and comic art) demographics are 1) Baby Boomers, and 2) offspring of baby boomers.

 

Thus, the glut of Kirby originals was purchased and reside in the collections of boomers and Gen Xers because Kirby means something to us. Will Kirby mean something to the next generation of collectors - your children? Perhaps, but certainly nowhere near the level of current interest.

 

Thus, if interest in Kirby wanes (and it will), then Ditko, Heck et al will follow.

 

Oh sure, we as caring guardians of artwork can will the pages to our children but will they really care enough to hold onto the pages as keepsakes? I suspect most will not so supply will again stream into the marketplace via the offspring of the two largest comicart collecting demographics: Boomers and Gen Xers and guess what??? Today's generation of readers and collectors is a fraction of Gen Xers, and their children will be a fraction and so on and so forth.

 

Anyone remember Barnaby? A brilliant strip from the 1940s with a short run. Highly prized during its heyday, now all but forgotten. I suspect the same will happen with Calvin and Hobbes two generations from now.

 

With regard to Dan's comment about this being a nostalgia driven hobby and buying what you like...yes, I agree. However, I believe your conclusion is incorrect.

 

Ultimate Spiderman has consistently been one of the most popular titles within the last 10 years and Bagley and Bendis' run had a run of over 100 issues on USM. Perhaps today's kids will see their work as their generations Lee/Kirby collaboration and pursue this artwork for nostalgia reasons. How many of today's kids will actually spend the time and money to go back to the 1st 100 issues of FF or ASM if the character is completely different than the one they grew up with? If it is all about nostalgia, then I won't be holding my breath that Kirby and Ditko will maintain their prices in the future.

[Nexus]

In the short few years I've been involved in OA collecting, I, too, have seen lots of "new" people enter the hobby. The thing is, though...they're all around my age! It would make sense since we've all reached that period in our lives where nostalgia hits us and we have some extra spending money. That would explain the spike in demand and prices for certain material. Looking down the road, there will be an inevitable sell-off for many when retirement age is reached. At that time, there's going to be a glut of available material. Unfortunately, for all the reasons already stated, there will probably not be corresponding demand.

 

Having said that, I believe some things will always be sought after and do have museum potential. Like early SA Marvel or works by giants like Frank Miller, Alan Moore, etc.. But pieces whose values are driven by generational nostalgia? No. I love JON SABLE and NEXUS from my early days of comics collecting, but titles like those just get more obscure with each passing year. "Hot" artists like Todd McFarlane, Jim Lee, Dale Keown (sorry, Yoram!) and the like? There will always be other hot artists to replace them. Unless an artist is involved with a landmark work, the demand will fade. Hell, I'll argue that in 20 years, Dave Gibbons' (who's never been considered a "hot" artist) WATCHMEN art will be more valued than McFarlane's Spidey art.