2004 Comic Book Crash

[Smokinghawk]

What's up with this 2004 Comic Book Crash?!?! Can anyone elaborate on this?

 

It was SUPPOSED to be in 2004, but Marvel had to postpone the crash because Kevin Smith couldn't finish his part of the problem on time.

 

[drice6900]

A crash will occur. Who knows when? My guess-sooner than later. YOu won't see it coming. Once you recognize the crash, books will only be sold at substantial discounts. The industry will undergo a long period of supply overhanging the market which might take decades to work off. The bigger problem would be if an economic downturn in the economy leads to a "crash of financial assets". Then you might find yourself in need of money during an illiquid period. That's my view but I'm not as smart as some of the other posters.

 

 

JC?

[jduran1]

Key pre-modern comic books in investment grade will always go up. Temporary Price decreases (light crashes) mostly occur in modern age books that are hyped up. There is so much demand and very little supply in most key gold, silver and bronze books. When this flips we have a problem. All major key comics have been graded with some exceptions. Three things drive speculators in our comic market. CGC 9.8 's to 10.0s Greed and panic. When they panic and sell you buy. When they get greedy you sell. I am waiting for for the panic so I can buy what I need.

[BestOf7-migration]

And if not 2005, then 2006, for sure! Or maybe 2007 or 2008. But it's definitely going to happen and if I keep guessing long enough the cyclical nature of markets will eventually prove me right, and that's what's important dammit

 

What FF said

[Thegoldenage]

I have to agree. With a few exceptions the market appears to be slowing. What I can't understand is why everyone is so afraid of a market slowdown. Every other collectibles market has had downturns at one point or another, and all have come back. So what if the market slows down for a while? It did in the mid-80's and again in the late 90's (about the time Sotheby's and Christies bailed out of the comic book auction biz) . Each time, the market came back better than before. I don't see a crash in prices. I think there are too many money boys out there who will continue to spend their bucks on high end books. Just don't follow their lead, and you won't get burned.

 

BTW: I heard that there are only two golden age dealers at the Vegas Con? Anyone know if it's true? That would be pretty scary.

[seank]

Crash?

 

 

 

[jduran1]

Vegas is new., It will take a while to build up support. Dealers are tired from the San Diego Con. (That was incredibly successful) Also the internet is more cost effective is selling and displaying your wares versus dealers attending mulitple cons. Remember what I said, if people panic that will be great. I can then finish my collection of x-men.all star and house of secrets. In the panic of 29 my father bought 800 acres of resort lake and land for 800 bucks. It is valued at over 45 million today

[ross]

What's up with this 2004 Comic Book Crash?!?! Can anyone elaborate on this?

 

 

 

 

 

[fantastic_four]

With a few exceptions the market appears to be slowing. What I can't understand is why everyone is so afraid of a market slowdown. Every other collectibles market has had downturns at one point or another, and all have come back. So what if the market slows down for a while? It did in the mid-80's and again in the late 90's (about the time Sotheby's and Christies bailed out of the comic book auction biz) . Each time, the market came back better than before. I don't see a crash in prices. I think there are too many money boys out there who will continue to spend their bucks on high end books. Just don't follow their lead, and you won't get burned.

 

You're wrong!!! The next crash will be the big one. When it hits, you, the big money boys, and all the wannabes in this forum will lose your shirts. I won't use the cliched "I told you so" taunt, but you can bet your sweet arse I'll throw a lot of gloating implicit comments your way to say "you should have listened!!"

 

It's so hard being a prophet of doom...you should all be thanking me, yet all I get is scorn and disdain. BLASPHEMERS!!! But...despite everyone's mocking my inevitable truths...I shall continue steadfast in the obvious importance of my cause.

 

[dam60]

Key pre-modern comic books in investment grade will always go up. Temporary Price decreases (light crashes) mostly occur in modern age books that are hyped up. There is so much demand and very little supply in most key gold, silver and bronze books. When this flips we have a problem. All major key comics have been graded with some exceptions. Three things drive speculators in our comic market. CGC 9.8 's to 10.0s Greed and panic. When they panic and sell you buy. When they get greedy you sell. I am waiting for for the panic so I can buy what I need.

 

Here's just some food for thought: everyone remember Polaroid? That was one hot stock / company about 30 years ago and now it's bankrupt. Heck, ever hear of Kodak? They are havin some major issues right now as they attempt to dominate the digital pictures arena. My whole point is nothing is certain. trends and tastes change and markets are unquestionably effected. I believe that comics have little to no "long term" potential solely because kids today just don't collect comics. I would love for someone to prove me wrong, but I won't hold my breath waiting.

 

In fact, right now I am casually working on a timeline exploring the development of visual medium alternatives (i.e. movies, tv, personal computer, cable, video games, tivo) with the proportionate decline in the popularity of comics. Think about that. I'm not saying that the intellectual property (the characters) are any less popular and I would say that about 95 out of 100 people in the USA know who Superman/Batman/Spider-man are but I would also say that maybe 5 out of 100 people can name even 1 of those characters first appearances.

 

DAM

[Aman619]

Key pre-modern comic books in investment grade will always go up. Temporary Price decreases (light crashes) mostly occur in modern age books that are hyped up. There is so much demand and very little supply in most key gold, silver and bronze books. When this flips we have a problem. All major key comics have been graded with some exceptions. Three things drive speculators in our comic market. CGC 9.8 's to 10.0s Greed and panic. When they panic and sell you buy. When they get greedy you sell. I am waiting for for the panic so I can buy what I need.

 

Here's just some food for thought: everyone remember Polaroid? That was one hot stock / company about 30 years ago and now it's bankrupt. Heck, ever hear of Kodak? They are havin some major issues right now as they attempt to dominate the digital pictures arena. My whole point is nothing is certain. trends and tastes change and markets are unquestionably effected. I believe that comics have little to no "long term" potential solely because kids today just don't collect comics. I would love for someone to prove me wrong, but I won't hold my breath waiting.

 

In fact, right now I am casually working on a timeline exploring the development of visual medium alternatives (i.e. movies, tv, personal computer, cable, video games, tivo) with the proportionate decline in the popularity of comics. Think about that. I'm not saying that the intellectual property (the characters) are any less popular and I would say that about 95 out of 100 people in the USA know who Superman/Batman/Spider-man are but I would also say that maybe 5 out of 100 people can name even 1 of those characters first appearances.

 

DAM

 

you make good points (if a little off target in speaking of individual companies that have failed. Thats like saying comics are doomed because only two top companies remain viable) But you completely lose me with your last point.

 

If all else fails, the first appearances of Superman, Batman, and Spidey will be worth hundreds of $1000s in high grade condition...to nearly any collectibles/antique collector who understands and appreciates Americana. Even the same people you describe who may not know the particular issue numbers...

 

 

[Zanarkand]

Economics 101:

 

A market "downturn" occurs when when usually unrelated economic activity steals resources away from the market in question. It does not refer to prices so much as volume. Downturns can be waited out.

 

A "correction" occurs when speculative boneheads drive certain commodity prices sky high, then non-boneheads who should know better jump on, seeing a quick way to make a buck, the some dumb jerk months down the road is left holding the hot potato when nobody is left who is willing to pay more than he did.

 

A "crash" is when a market factor goes completely out of whack. The market factor could be inflation, supply/demand, unemployment, or interest rates, just to name a few. Back in the 90s, our pals at the major comic publishing houses created a supply/demand crash with their multiple-chromium-special edition-million print run nonsense and almost put themselves out of business. Certain titles/issues can experience inflation crashes, but I do not believe it applies to the comic book market in general.

 

What we're headed for, if anything, is a high end market correction of substantial magnitude. People who deal mostly or exclusively in high dollar, high grade books have already, to a certain degree, reached the point where they're basically just selling back and forth to each other. The higher the prices go, the less new blood can afford to join that game.

 

However, the market will not correct in general. Collectors being who we are, we will always want something, and therefore dealers will always be able to profit from something. As people like me basically surrender the idea of ever owning HDHGs, our comic dollars focus elsewhere.

[12c_Comic]

I can only speak for myself but if you buy for the right reason, 1) as a collector you buy because you like the story,characters,and art.2) It is a piece of "history" in terms of how characters dressed,talked,and their surrounding ie:local or global events ie: wars,disasters and others.If it does crash then the true collectors will still be around and from the ashes there will be a resurgence once again.As with everything there are ups and down,what we are experiencing is the "Golden days of Comicbook Collecting" with the fuel of the internet beening the main reason in my view....Food for though.

 

[seank]

As a buyer of mid-grade gold, I'm not worried about a market crash. And any correction in the market is to my advantage! We worry and [!@#%^&^] about a crash on this board, but then we also snicker and laugh at the chumps who pay $19,000 for a HG Hulk 181. What's it going to be? Sit back and pay reasonable prices for books we enjoy or fret and worry that our "investments" are going to fade into nothing?

 

My hobby dollars go to comics.

 

My investment dollars go into stocks, bonds, and mutual funds that generally pay dividends. The dividents get reinvested into more stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. That's like free money. Comics don't do that.

 

 

[clobberintime]

Don't believe there will ever be real Crash as has been predicted and bemoaned since this forum was created. Wasn't that the first thread on here? Maybe JC wasn't on board yet. Anyway the stuff I collect is high grade silver/bronze and a little golden age - and I haven't seen a big slide in anything I pay attention to. Just the normal fluctuations - and things have definitely been up lately. Anyone see that group of FFs friday night? It was a blood bath! No keys but very good prices for the seller - more than 4x guide for 9.4s in the 40s and 50s. And there is a lot of good stuff on ebay and elsewhere right now that is bringing very good prices. Every once in a while you run into a deal but most prices on the stuff I chase is at or above where I think the price should be. But - the books that have dozens of copies in 9.2 and above are waning in price as it should be. When you see the same book over and over in super high grade, you begin to realize the cgc multiples should not apply as it is not that rare. Also I think like someone else said, we are starting to see the end of the top collectors snatching all the good stuff - after 3+ years of cgc, the Brulatos and Geppis have it all already in 9.4+. sO THAT brings stuff down to the next tier of collectors/investors/specs and that could result in some price decreases. I don't think that is a crash or slump but a correction of prices that were too high to start with and out of touch with reality - those early 9.4 and up prices were all established by folks who have way more money than they obviously know what to do with. The question now is - will the more frugal segment of collectors/buyers maintain those prices? I think if big ticket stuff sits around for a while with the big sellers, they will adjust prices or make deals to move inventory eventually. I stilll think that prices on the ultra high grade and big ticket cgc books have yet to be firmly established - cgc is only 3 years old - and it is best to stick to some price equation that resembles OverStreet. I think now tht the crazy money guys are filtering out of the equation, prices may become more firmly set over the next 3 years. But I also think that for most bronze keys and pretty much any silver, prices for cgc 9.0 up will be higher than Overstreet.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Anyone see that group of FFs friday night? It was a blood bath!

 

Yeah, no kidding. I gave up on bidding on a number of books because they were well outside of my price range with many hours left to go. Its tough being a high grade collector on a budget.

 

Personally, I can't wait for the market to crash so I don't have to pay multiples for high grade stuff. Bring on the Panic Selling!

[comicartfan]

I think Clobbertime has some good points...as to some others. I think that people have this mentality that because something was "HOT" for a period of time, that when it loses it's flavor of the month that the market is doomed. Let's take the DD fiasco. This is a perfect example of the trend that makes people say the market is crashing. Daredevil 158 CGC 9.4 was selling around 200 bucks long before the movie came around. The hype starts and the book takes off. I saw that book sell for 450.00 in 9.4 ! - crazy prices.....Ok, the movie comes out, it's not as popular or as good as X MEN 2 or Spider-man....the book values slide more towards the $150.00 mark....a small drop and yet the feeling runs rampant that the market is crashing, Bronze books are dropping like lead ballons and we should all sell while we can. - Now, there wasn't a problem with the value of the book prior to the movie hype...so why because it returned to baseline that it's all of a sudden a bad investment ? - There also an unspoken rule that books only sell for what the last one on EBay went for...like the recent DD 159 that sold for $99.00 - Now, that was a fluke. Anyone that doesn't realize that is not someone who should be involved in comics. -

 

I also think that the point brought up by CT that CGC is only 3 years old and there is still too much ungraded stuff out there that needs to be graded before "true value" can be established. When I graded my GL 76 , it came back a 9.4...which at the time there were none in that grade.- Boom goes the price ! - well, 6 months later there are 3 more copies....well, there goes the trend downward. I saw the book sell for as much as 2500.00 ...and as little as 1500....so that's a $1000 differance....Should I sell my copy now ?? or did i miss the "prime time".?

I think that more time needs to pass, there needs to be an oppurtunity for a 9.6 to surface ...is there is one out there....then the value can be fixed...give or take.....

 

I also want to remind people that dealers aren't going to all of sudden drop the prices on their inventory simply because there are all these discussions on here regarding a crash...and I would love for some of the seasoned dealers who have been around 20+ years to throw in an opinion regarding the trends over the past few years. Remember that these guys have seen all the highs of the late 80s-early 90s and the crash of the mid 90s...and they're still here....

 

besides, we are all waiting for the prices to drop so we can fill in holes in our collections.....which will only drive the prices back up....

[Aman619]

When I graded my GL 76 , it came back a 9.4...which at the time there were none in that grade.- Boom goes the price ! - well, 6 months later there are 3 more copies....well, there goes the trend downward. I saw the book sell for as much as 2500.00 ...and as little as 1500....so that's a $1000 differance....Should I sell my copy now ?? or did i miss the "prime time".?

 

umm, if you wanted to get $2500 for it - - yeah, you did.

 

I think that more time needs to pass, there needs to be an oppurtunity for a 9.6 to surface ...is there is one out there....then the value can be fixed...give or take.....

 

..and now you have to pray a 9.6 never surfaces! because it will fix the price of your no longer "one of x in the highest grade" copies to one of the second best grade. I agree with most of what you said..but think you draw the wrong conclusions.As more and more HG copies come out and get graded, it swells the census and makes buyers realize that the comics are more common in each HG than was thought a few years ago. And this has brought prices down...and will continue to do so.

 

Its the word CRASH that is used for different meanings that confuses the (endless) argument here. I think it was originally used to refer to the rapid devaluation of HG CGC graded comics after the initial frenzy that resulted in 10x to 40x Guide prices. The crash would be just like the Tech/Nasdaq selloff and take EVERYTHING down with the overpriced garbage. (As in "What goes up fast must come down - - FAST!) Well. some modern comics HAVE crashed already, but by and large, it hasnt brought down the rest to this point.

 

CRASH is also used to describe the end of comics collecting as we know it...leading to a near-total devaluation of all collectible comics. When there are no more readers, there can be, ipso facto, no more collectors. I think 905 here agree with this statement, but disagree on just how soon it will occur.

 

yknow, I dont know why Im typing all this (again). We've been over this. I just wanted to tell you the first parts w/o [!@#%^&^] you off. There was some crazy money being spent on books that for one reason or another seemed like they were scarce and hot enough to warrant it at the time. Much of that has passed. When the census shows ONLY ONE in 9.4, it will goose higher prices. Trouble is, that situation (for a key book) is rarer and rarer as times goes by in CGC land.

[blazingbob]

I think people are missing a couple of thing.

 

First, the 1st one, the highest grade. We all know that EGO and the kid with the 1st one on the block gets the "bragging" rights. Since a majority of us are "MEN", I'll leave those of you watching "Queer eye for the straight guy" out of this, we like to boast about having the best of something.

 

A high price is publicly seen. For example, I sold one of the 1st Hulk #181 9.4's for $700. Got all kinds of [!@#%^&^] from dealers and collectors. Well, Hulk #181's started getting slabbed and Steve Borock will confirm that at a table of dealers, myself included we argued that Hulk #181 wouldn't sell for over $1000. Quite frankly $1000 was laughed at.

 

As more got slabbed and the "word" spread people started sending them in. Prices kept going, 9.4's were now common, 9.6's were the hot book. Suddenly the 9.8 and 9.9 popped out.

 

Second Example.

Amazing Fantasy #15 9.4. Showcase Dan and I sold the Diamond run for $86,000. "We" had a price tag of $100,000 on the book at the San Diego show. Again, laughing and "sure it will sell for that". Well it sold and shortly thereafter one sells for $80,000. Shortly thereafter the Ebay whale comes along and pays over 6 digits, has financial issues and dumps the book on the market. Oh my god, it sells for $86,000 and later reappears on another site for $150,000. Crash or opportunity?

 

Supply vs Demand?

Obviously Hulk #181 is "available", is FF #1 in 9.0 or better available at the same rate. Where are those "available" DC keys? Where are those Action #1's in high grade? How about Superman #1? Why have I sent out over 100 emails asking for keys and not been offered one? I'm not a lowballer by any means but I can tell you that these 1962-1963 "common" books aren't as available as you think.

 

Lastly, everybody thinks they know the "ceiling", same with the stock market you want to brag that I got the "most". Apply a little "greed" in there and anything seems possible. However by looking back 3-5 years you have to put in "perspective" what the book would have sold for if CGC wasn't around and is my profit "reasonable". Just like all you collectors writing me email using the term "fair offer".

[drbanner]

If your comic-book collecting world revolves around buying CGC 9.4 and up post-1975 comics (Miller DD's, Byrne X-men, Wolverine MS, Spawn, McFarlane Spideys, etc.,.) then your comic-book collecting world crashed in the summer of 2002, and has steadily declined since then. This is the market that Joe and Gene specialize in and follow closely, so their comic-book collecting world has indeed crashed, and they're prognostications are correct. But the good news is that now's a great time to buy these books!

 

If your comic-book collecting world revolves around buying CGC 9.4 and up silver thru 1975 books, then prices have come down since the initial spikes, but the market has not crashed. Many 9.4 and up silver age books haven't decreased at all, and I'm not really sure how much the early 70's Marvel/DC keys like MTU 1, Defenders 1, Conan 1, etc.,. have fallen, but I'd guess they're off the highs of late '01/early '02.

 

I don't believe there's been much, if any, of a price decrease in pre-1960 CGC 9.4 and up books.

 

As there was never really a premium on any sub-9.0 CGC books, that market remains flat as it has for really, the last 5-6-7+(?) years for mid and low-grade books.

 

Finally, here's a great graphic to illustrate what's happened to the late silver-bronze/modern market (using hard data, not conjectures or qualitative arguments), hopefully comicsheet will update it soon - The Comic Sheet CGC eBay Auction Indexes.

 

Any more questions?