Silver Age Comic Book Prices Rise 14.2%

[TheShadowKnows]

Hi Gang,

 

It's been a long while since the last update. I hope this was worth waiting for. Please have a look and let me know what you think.

 

CycleGirl

 

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Silver Age Comic Book Price Index 18-Month Performance

 

 

The values of key Silver Age comic books have steadily risen since the beginning of the decade. I've created the SCPI (Silver Age Comic Price Index) to give serious collectors a more accurate view of the state of the market.

 

From January 2007 through July 2008, the SCPI has risen from 1410 to 1611. This represents a 14.2% increase over 18 months.

 

By design, the starting value of the SCPI in 2002 was exactly 1000. Therefore, the July 2008 value of 1611 represents a total increase of 61% in key Silver Age comic book values over the last six and a half years.

 

Returning again to the graph of the last 18 month period. The SCPI rose 12.6% from January through December 2007 and has only risen about 1.5% during the first half of 2008. While 2007 was a very strong year for the SCPI, 2008 is sluggish so far. This is may be due to the weak economy. It may also be due to a lack of movies for the "Big 3" Marvel titles in 2008.

 

For the complete article please see comicpriceindex

 

 

 

Rhonda,

Long time no post.Hope you are well.

Dennis

[Subliminal]

ASM1, FF1 and TOS39 are still there twice each....

 

Yeah, and it's a good way of comparing how the difference of grade affects them. (thumbs u

 

I agree. I like to see them track the same book in both a high and a mid grade and keys ,semi-keys and an average comic.

The more ways you analyze the market the better.

It would also be nice if they could track raw grade sales too from dealers/graders that are known and consistent to see if their results mirror slabbed books.

 

 

 

[PLOD-migration]

 

That's one Krazy Kat!

 

I'm not him.

 

Luxxcorp.

[DrWatson]

 

That's one Krazy Kat!

 

I'm not him.

 

Luxxcorp.

aka King of Batch.

[CycleGirl]

 

So is inflation calculated into your numbers or not?

 

The index is not adjusted for inflation.

 

Example:

..a book trades for $100 in 2002.

..In 2008 the book is trading for an average price of $150.

..This is reported as an increase of +50% in value.

 

I have to keep it simple.

[CycleGirl]

Awesome work, Rhonda. It made for some very interesting reading.

 

Thanks, Casey!

[CycleGirl]

Hi CG , I second what FT says.

 

Hi gaz!

 

 

[CycleGirl]

Rhonda,

Long time no post.Hope you are well.

Dennis

 

Hi Dennis,

 

Had a terrible bout of pneumonia in May. Then in June I was getting ready for an early-July tennis tournament. Now for some reason I'm thinking about funny books again.

 

I actually thought about selling my collection for a while.

[kc120us]

[Thegoldenage]

 

So is inflation calculated into your numbers or not?

 

The index is not adjusted for inflation.

 

Example:

..a book trades for $100 in 2002.

..In 2008 the book is trading for an average price of $150.

..This is reported as an increase of +50% in value.

 

I have to keep it simple.

 

Keeping it simple is understandable. However not calculating the cost of inflation makes your numbers worthless. Maybe someone here on the boards can figure it and give the correct percentages?

[CycleGirl]

 

So is inflation calculated into your numbers or not?

 

The index is not adjusted for inflation.

 

Example:

..a book trades for $100 in 2002.

..In 2008 the book is trading for an average price of $150.

..This is reported as an increase of +50% in value.

 

I have to keep it simple.

 

Keeping it simple is understandable. However not calculating the cost of inflation makes your numbers worthless. Maybe someone here on the boards can figure it and give the correct percentages?

 

While I agree that inflation does reduce real investment return I disagree with your assertion that the reporting of the number in constant dollar terms makes the index "worthless."

 

Return on investment on assets is normally reported in constant dollar terms. I don't know of any major investment index that subtracts inflation. For example, the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, NYSE, etc. When you get interest on your bank account, corporate or treasury bond (except a TIPS) the interest is based on the initial investment. The interest is not normally adjusted for inflation. Also, your mortgage interest is not adjusted for inflation. Similarly, real estate capital gains are always calculated in constant dollars, never adjusting for inflation.

 

When people say that the stock market returns 8% per year, this is not an inflation-adjusted number. If you buy an investment grade bond from Coca-Cola at 6%, you don't get an inflation adjustment. When your bank pays you 3.25% on your money market, they don't give you an inflation adjustment on top of that.

 

When comparing comic books to other assets that appreciate in value, such as your house, a stock, or a treasury note, the index is reported in the most convenient form to make the comparison.

 

CycleGirl

 

 

[tth2]

 

So is inflation calculated into your numbers or not?

 

The index is not adjusted for inflation.

 

Example:

..a book trades for $100 in 2002.

..In 2008 the book is trading for an average price of $150.

..This is reported as an increase of +50% in value.

 

I have to keep it simple.

 

Keeping it simple is understandable. However not calculating the cost of inflation makes your numbers worthless. Maybe someone here on the boards can figure it and give the correct percentages?

 

While I agree that inflation does reduce real investment return I disagree with your assertion that the reporting of the number in constant dollar terms makes the index "worthless."

 

Return on investment on assets is normally reported in constant dollar terms. I don't know of any major investment index that subtracts inflation. For example, the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, NYSE, etc. When you get interest on your bank account, corporate or treasury bond (except a TIPS) the interest is based on the initial investment. The interest is not normally adjusted for inflation. Also, your mortgage interest is not adjusted for inflation. Similarly, real estate capital gains are always calculated in constant dollars, never adjusting for inflation.

 

When people say that the stock market returns 8% per year, this is not an inflation-adjusted number. If you buy an investment grade bond from Coca-Cola at 6%, you don't get an inflation adjustment. When your bank pays you 3.25% on your money market, they don't give you an inflation adjustment on top of that.

 

When comparing comic books to other assets that appreciate in value, such as your house, a stock, or a treasury note, the index is reported in the most convenient form to make the comparison.

 

CycleGirl

 

Totally agree.

 

If anyone looking at the index wants to adjust for inflation, just back out the inflation rate from the index's rate of appreciation to calculate the real return.

[bronze_rules]

 

So is inflation calculated into your numbers or not?

 

The index is not adjusted for inflation.

 

Example:

..a book trades for $100 in 2002.

..In 2008 the book is trading for an average price of $150.

..This is reported as an increase of +50% in value.

 

I have to keep it simple.

 

Keeping it simple is understandable. However not calculating the cost of inflation makes your numbers worthless. Maybe someone here on the boards can figure it and give the correct percentages?

 

While I agree that inflation does reduce real investment return I disagree with your assertion that the reporting of the number in constant dollar terms makes the index "worthless."

 

Return on investment on assets is normally reported in constant dollar terms. I don't know of any major investment index that subtracts inflation. For example, the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, NYSE, etc. When you get interest on your bank account, corporate or treasury bond (except a TIPS) the interest is based on the initial investment. The interest is not normally adjusted for inflation. Also, your mortgage interest is not adjusted for inflation. Similarly, real estate capital gains are always calculated in constant dollars, never adjusting for inflation.

 

When people say that the stock market returns 8% per year, this is not an inflation-adjusted number. If you buy an investment grade bond from Coca-Cola at 6%, you don't get an inflation adjustment. When your bank pays you 3.25% on your money market, they don't give you an inflation adjustment on top of that.

 

When comparing comic books to other assets that appreciate in value, such as your house, a stock, or a treasury note, the index is reported in the most convenient form to make the comparison.

 

CycleGirl

 

 

Great reply. It is a simple matter to adjust for inflation (subtract gain of CPIs over that period); but for what?

What index or instrument is reported with an inflation adjustment as a standard

reporting basis (particularly stocks).

 

While it might be useful, it is not the accepted practice by any financial or economic entity. It is far more useful for relative comparison to other investments, to look at the returns in nominal terms.

 

PS. Inflation was 19.19% over the index lifetime, so real return

was 61.1% - 19.19% ~ 41.9%

[gaz973]

 

So is inflation calculated into your numbers or not?

 

The index is not adjusted for inflation.

 

Example:

..a book trades for $100 in 2002.

..In 2008 the book is trading for an average price of $150.

..This is reported as an increase of +50% in value.

 

I have to keep it simple.

 

Keeping it simple is understandable. However not calculating the cost of inflation makes your numbers worthless. Maybe someone here on the boards can figure it and give the correct percentages?

 

While I agree that inflation does reduce real investment return I disagree with your assertion that the reporting of the number in constant dollar terms makes the index "worthless."

 

Return on investment on assets is normally reported in constant dollar terms. I don't know of any major investment index that subtracts inflation. For example, the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, NYSE, etc. When you get interest on your bank account, corporate or treasury bond (except a TIPS) the interest is based on the initial investment. The interest is not normally adjusted for inflation. Also, your mortgage interest is not adjusted for inflation. Similarly, real estate capital gains are always calculated in constant dollars, never adjusting for inflation.

 

When people say that the stock market returns 8% per year, this is not an inflation-adjusted number. If you buy an investment grade bond from Coca-Cola at 6%, you don't get an inflation adjustment. When your bank pays you 3.25% on your money market, they don't give you an inflation adjustment on top of that.

 

When comparing comic books to other assets that appreciate in value, such as your house, a stock, or a treasury note, the index is reported in the most convenient form to make the comparison.

 

CycleGirl

 

Totally agree.

 

If anyone looking at the index wants to adjust for inflation, just back out the inflation rate from the index's rate of appreciation to calculate the real return.

 

CG isn't exactly getting paid for her efforts. If anyone wants an inflation adjustment, they can do it themselves.

[Aman619]

does any one think inflation even has a part to play in the data here? I dont.

[jimjum12]

Is there any breakdown by grades and slabbed vs. raw?

 

 

Yes, there are 32 books included in the index. The books were selected to cover a broad range of values and grades.

 

 

I've only used CGC graded books in the index because these are the only books for which a consistent grade/price relationship can be established.

 

For more information see the SCPI FAQ and What comics are included in the Comic Price Index?

 

Hope this helps.

 

CycleGirl

 

 

 

 

One other factor you may wish to explore is a comparison between early SA (1956-1964) VS. late SA (1965-1970) as the dynamics of these two sub groups vary significantly. If this type of thing interests you..as it seems to...you may consider creating FOUR indexes...2 early and 2 late SA for Marvel and D.C separately.THAT would be EXTREMELY interesting.GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[llll-migration]

Well, I thought about it and if you wanted to have one index that covered SA comics in general, (and not just the keys) you may as well throw darts at lists of comics from different genres. Or some other system of generating random SA comic books.

 

Y'know, a random walk down into the SA. ("A Random Walk Down Wall Street")

 

Not too random, though. If a comic doesn't "feel" right: if it obviously way off the mean, then there should be a veto option.

 

Genres would be weighted according to number of comics published.

The genres with more issues would be more represented in the index.

 

Or simply include Overstreet's top sellers per genre.

 

I'm no statistician but this seems like a lot of selfless work.

 

:banana:Kudos, CycleGirl.

 

BTW, doesn't Metro have some sort of table that proves GA keys out-perform the stock market?

[TheShadowKnows]

I think the graph is just fine,There is always a hater in the house.I appreciate the work you put into the graph.

Dennis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[lou_fine]

BTW, doesn't Metro have some sort of table that proves GA keys out-perform the stock market?

 

Oh yes, you must be referring to the Metropolis Index here.

 

Last seen in the 2005 OS price guide. Basically 30 handpicked blue chip comics from the GA through to the BA which was then stacked up against the 10-year record of the Dow 30 Index.

 

Once again, the index was biased as it was very heavily DC and Marvel focus with just the keys books being mesaured. Either way, the 10-year results came out to be an average annual return of 13.04% for the Metropolis Index and 13.09% for the Dow Index (assuming reinvestment of dividends).

 

Of course, there's always the issue of liquidity favoring the Dow and the issue of fun and enjoyment favoring the Metro index.

[tth2]

Also, the Metro Index is based solely on OS Guide, which may or may not have any connection with reality. Certainly if you take into account the multiples to Guide that books in CGC 9.4 or Top of Census go for, then appreciation for a 9.4 and/or Top of Census set of the Metro Index books would be significantly higher than the OS appreciation rate.