Buy only what you love now more then ever!

[BleekerBob]

Fellow collectors if you haven't realized the US and now global economy is going down the toilet and fast. If you buy something that you don't absolutely love and have to own you will end up wanting to sell it and losing money. So before you decide to pull the trigger ask yourself " is this THE PIECE I have to own ". If its not that piece don't buy it! All I've been hearing about is fellow collectors wanting to sell art and cant find a buyer for anywhere near the price they paid. Often people buy whats availible and not what they cant live without. The bubble is going to pop my friends I can already see it happening. This is the time to sac money under your mattress not plowing it into over priced OA. Just a little advice for the new collectors out there.

[comix4fun]

Fellow collectors if you haven't realized the US and now global economy is going down the toilet and fast. If you buy something that you don't absolutely love and have to own you will end up wanting to sell it and losing money. So before you decide to pull the trigger ask yourself " is this THE PIECE I have to own ". If its not that piece don't buy it! All I've been hearing about is fellow collectors wanting to sell art and cant find a buyer for anywhere near the price they paid. Often people buy whats availible and not what they cant live without. The bubble is going to pop my friends I can already see it happening. This is the time to sac money under your mattress not plowing it into over priced OA. Just a little advice for the new collectors out there.

 

 

That's odd. I have experienced the polar opposite. I have been selling pieces that I have not even put up for sale and certainly not at a loss.

I can see people having a hard time selling middling or mediocre pieces but that has been true for a decade not just now. The premium stuff continues to move with little or no effort.

 

Just my

 

C

[BleekerBob]

Agree the cream of the crop will always be easy to sell everything else good luck!

[KreeSkrull99]

Agree the cream of the crop will always be easy to sell everything else good luck!

 

Yes

[delekkerste]

I totally agree with you - the financial/economic situation is even worse than people realize. We could have $20 TRILLION of credit taken out of the financial system by the time this is over ($2 trillion in writedowns @ 10-to-1 leverage). I doubt ANY asset is going to survive this unscathed - not even "the cream of the crop".

 

I wholeheartedly disagree, though, with the notion that the best of the best can't stagnate or even decline in value - we saw the very best fine art pieces absolutely plummet in value between 1990 and 1996. I am talking the best of the best stuff falling 40% or more under a similar set of circumstances (recession, banking crisis, credit crunch, bubble prices, foreigners pulling back after their economies went in the tank too) and we are talking about objects with much greater reach, which are almost universally admired and of great historical importance. If the very best, one-of-a-kind Van Goghs, Monets, Renoirs, Picassos, etc. can fall in value under the right set of challenging circumstances, are Kirby, Romita, Ditko, etc. really as bulletproof as people think?

 

I think your assessment about the OA market is correct. Look at the dearth of big-ticket Art Days and buying announcements here and on ComicArt-L of late. I am hearing about big $ deals that have stalled or been cancelled. I have either spoken to, or have heard of, in just the past couple of weeks, several of the biggest BSDs in the comic and OA hobbies cutting back, thinking of selling or already letting some stuff loose from their personal collections. Heck, somebody just outed Geppi's financial problems in a thread in Comics General (stories of which have been flying around fast and furious of late).

 

As I said in another thread - if you're a BSD and you've just taken a big hit in the market, you're thinking about the money you just lost, not the money you still have. Most people who have never had a lot of money don't realize this - they only see what could be bought with the large amount of money that remains. The truth is, human nature is what it is, whether you're living in the lap of luxury or been dealt a bad hand by life. The wealthy have been hit just as hard, perhaps even harder since they own the bulk of the assets that are plummeting in value and are often leveraged, in this financial downturn and there is no shortage of media stories about them selling off fine art, boats and property and cutting back on things just like everybody else.

 

I think that the Scoop article that just came out about vintage collectibles holding strong amidst this economic chaos was highly self-serving. I don't think it's entirely incorrect, but I think it's very backward looking and unlikely to hold up a year or two from now.

 

It's never been a bad idea to "buy what you love", and it's never been more true than now. If you're looking to invest your cash, there is no shortage of assets that are now priced at 2003-2005 levels (some even back to the 1990s) - why would you pay crazy 2011 prices on OA (i.e., "krazy" money assuming the market will eventually catch up)? I think people have become painfully aware of reality in just the past month and that psychology has massively shifted from even the summer. I think things like the Scoop article are actively trying to shore up collector confidence to prevent a panic, but if this downturn and debt-deflation lasts into 2010-11 (or even beyond) as I expect, it's only a matter of time before a lot of people cut back and/or hit the eject button. Counter-cyclical investments only work when there is still liquidity in the system, not when the wealth just evaporates and $20 trillion of credit disappears.

[spider9698]

Gene

Another insight post. You have a great perspective on things. A true barometer will be upcoming Heritage/ComicLink/ProfilesInHistory sales/auctions for the remainder of the year. If sellers don't adjust their "reserves" we may see a higher than normal percentage of unsold lots.

S

 

[Artemaria]

It's never been a bad idea to "buy what you love", and it's never been more true than now.

 

Truer words words have never been spoken.

 

- A

[Monster's Coll]

I've been collecting comics and comic art - along with American illustration art, vintage toys, sports cards, movie posters and various other vintage collectibles since about 1985. I have seen everything you could possibly imagine when it comes to the collectibles field. Good and Bad.

 

While there are many valid points made here, it's a little disconcerting seeing speculation on the future (even immediate future) of comic art values without at least a little historic fact that can be directly applied to what is being discussed. Attempting to apply standard investment principles to a totally 'outside of the box investment' like comic art, is IMHO, an innaccurate way to assess future values.

 

The facts as I have seen them through my own experiences (so take this information just as that - others may have seen differently) are as follows:

 

Every single time that there has been 'blood in the streets', irregardless of the cause - I have ONLY seen a spike in values, generally speaking (as there are always exceptions). Since I have been involved, prices have steadily increased across the board for 'quality' art. This does not apply to the 'next hot-model'. You know which artists i'm referring to. Especially today, with artist's values being manipulated by the artists and reps - buyers are almost asking to take a loss - so, definitely make sure you buy what you like when it comes to those pieces! Almost everything (as far as collectibles) vintage and of quality has increased in value not matter what time of the year, what day of the week, what economic event was taking place - in my experience.

 

I have only seen an increase in requests from people attempting to buy things I own since last year. The offers continue to rise, the interest continues to grow. Including today.

 

I have been looking to buy virtually anything of 'quality' since about 1991 when I started dealing in order to try and further my collection; since that time, I have Only experienced prices and competition Growing. While there have always been times when pieces could be bought at a 'perceived' deal, there has never been a 'sell-off' like we have seen with stocks just this week and many times over the last 20 years and before. Never. I'll say that again - Never.

 

I have read what people have posted and thought it might be helpful to put a little perspective on this, since I have felt nothing and have been referred to as a BSD in the past. I am constantly buying. Well, I wish I was... I've bought very little since I haven't seen Any dumping going on - at all. -Please sell me some art-

 

To sum this all up - and I know this has been stated before - when standard investment avenues turn bearish, collectibles(in general - Blue Chips even more so) see a spike in values. This is all I have ever seen in the now 23 years of daily interaction in collectibles - and not just comic art.

 

Oh, and as soon as someone wholesales me a piece of art, i'll be sure to post about it. I may never post again.

[delekkerste]

Ken, with all due respect, art/collectibles prices have never been this high, both in absolute terms and relative to both incomes and other asset prices. Also, none of us have ever lived through an economic downturn of both this type (deflationary, not inflationary) and magnitude.

 

We have seen so many unprecedented things happen in the past few years (first on the upside, now on the downside) that to say things can "never" happen or are contrary to the experience of the last 25-30 years just isn't a very strong argument anymore. Home prices had *never* declined nationally since the 1930s. Oops, that one went out the window quickly. Lehman Brothers had *always* bounced back from every economic crisis. Whoops, that one didn't work out so well either! We had an "unprecedented" parabolic rise in prices - why would it be surprising to see the largest correction the hobby has ever seen as well?

 

I also disagree strongly that comic books/art are some esoteric, out of the box asset that can't be compared to anything and have some mystical ability to stop price declines faster than you can scream "Eric Roberts!" I don't recall the profs at Wharton and NYU telling me that comic books were a risk-free asset! Anyway, you could make the same comparisons with fine art and that didn't stop a 50+% crash from happening in the Artprice index from 1990 to 1996. By the way, that index, for now, has peaked as of the January 2008 reading, though it is not down by much...yet.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that past performance is no guarantee of future results - "unprecedented" can cut both ways.

 

Regards,

Gene

[Monster's Coll]

Gene,

 

I did not make a single statement of fact in reference to what can, may, or will happen. I certainly didn't say that prices going down can 'never' happen.

 

What I did say, since I apparantly was not clear, is that they have never plummetted(IE: large market correction) in the past, irregardless of circumstance. I will add that, I 'believe' that will remain the case.

 

That being said, I disagree as to history not being a 'very strong argument' anymore. It has been all the way up to today and until History proves it wrong, it will remain that way - even if you disagree.

 

You again are trying to draw a comparison between a 'standard investment correction' IE: home prices - Lehman Bros to a 'comic art market correction'. Which was the entire point of my first post.

 

I remember when the dot-coms crashed and the Dow and Nasdaq both plummetted. People freaked out(I even know some) and sold their assests at losses. Up until this latest 'crisis', they had recovered, no? The Dow was at an all time high of 14K less than 1 year ago. At the same time, we saw the unheard of growth in collectibles that you state in your post.

 

As for your art analogy, last I checked the art market which you refer to has broken records and is stronger than the forecasts made in Jan. Correct me if i'm wrong? Of course, there are exceptions, as I stated before, but in general, all I read about the Sothebys and Christies auctions were a very healthy market - in the face of as you say, unprecedented financial turmoil.

 

Not sure why you bring up Eric. I've never sold him a piece, so he is not part of any market data I used to make my statements above. While he is certainly a driving force in certain segments, his purchasing or for that matter, non-purchases do not make the market - IMHO.

 

I also never stated comics or art were a risk free asset. I stated that, in my experience, there has been no decline in prices and only increase in demand. Also, there IS a 'mystical' (to use your word) ability to these things - IMHO... collectibles are like drugs to many and require a fix (see Felix's ADD comments), which is just one of many mystical aspects, but the most important in Nostalgia. Which I can tell you don't lend much credence to, which I understand... but, in my experience, nostalgia is the #1 reason people pay almost 'any' price they can afford to get that specific 1-of-a-kind item they want. This point can not be overstated and the the single most important reason why standard investment priniciples can not be applied to collectibles (especially 1-of-a-kind) - IMHO.

 

I hope I clarified things.

 

[Nexus]

The collector BleekerBob describes is EXACTLY the ADD-type I referred to earlier. The collector who *must* have something at all costs, always overpaying, where collecting becomes all about the thrill-of-the-hunt. That he finds himself in a predicament now where he can't get 50% of what he paid...well, maybe he paid 2X too much to begin with??

 

The simple advice of "buy what you love AND can afford" has always been sound. Whether it's $100 for a con sketch or $80K for a McFarlane Spidey cover...if it's not money you can afford to lose, then it wasn't a smart buy. There are those who overpaid with the expectation that the market would eventually bail them out. Bad planning.

 

Speaking of which...I don't think there EVER was (or ever will be) a time when $60K for a Jim Lee X-MEN cover or $80K for a McFarlane Spidey cover would be considered a good buy. Sure, if you're among the tiny handful of BSD's to whom that amount is a trifle, no big deal. For the vast majority of us, it will always be

[Monster's Coll]

Felix,

 

I agree with your statement about the ADD collector potentially losing $ because of the lack of control. But, is that always the case with ADD collectors? I don't think so. I have known ADD collectors that when they have paid too much, realize they are going to have to hold on to that item for some time(how long, who know's?) before they can get their $ out, or see a profit. Which goes to further my point - it's all about time. If you freak out and 'dump' things on the market in bulk, sure there will be a lessening of values. A major market correction long term(people will lose faith in values and the market will stagnate), I think not.

 

The ONLY instance I can even remotely think of that can be looked at as a major amount of art (not even dumped) put on the market at one time, in which there was a 'softening' of price was Tony Christopher's collection and we ALL see what has happening in the 8(?) years since. The History of that collection speaks for itself. All the 'market correction' threads took place on the L(go back and check the archives) and guess what? Yep, the market corrected itself by making Kirby art the most valuable of any artist-across the board-, on average. Only thing I regret was not buying EVERYTHING I could get my hands on. Argh...

 

I WISH someone would dump a big chunk of Byrne or Miller or McFarlane or.... on the market so I can buy everything at the new 'corrected' price and sit on it until history repeats itself and I make a KILLING. That would be fun!

 

I can honestly say, that will Never happen. That's right, I said it! (Anyone see the new Chris Rock special?)

 

You know I agree that there are some kooo-kooo prices being paid for some things, but for others... I think they are deals if you can even get the shot to buy them. Chalk me up for someone that wishes he had the chance to drop the most $ ever paid(unheard of $) for a piece of bronze art (at the time, and might still be) when the GS #1 cover was sold. I think it would sell for double the price paid, right now, yes, I mean today - at least. Then again, who know's? Maybe no one will care about the 'New X-Men' in a few months when the world's economy implodes and we are all trying to trade comic art for food.

[westform]

I'd much rather have the GS xmen 1 cover than food.... I could lose a few pounds anyway. By the way, I agree with your posts and you have saved me the effort and arguement of having to post, thanks... and I think I speak for everyone regarding that.

 

Felix,

 

I agree with your statement about the ADD collector potentially losing $ because of the lack of control. But, is that always the case with ADD collectors? I don't think so. I have known ADD collectors that when they have paid too much, realize they are going to have to hold on to that item for some time(how long, who know's?) before they can get their $ out, or see a profit. Which goes to further my point - it's all about time. If you freak out and 'dump' things on the market in bulk, sure their will be a lessening of values. A major market correction long term(people will lose faith in values and the market will stagnate), I think not.

 

The ONLY instance I can even remotely think of that can be looked at as a major amount of art (not even dumped) put on the market at one time, in which there was a 'softening' of price was Tony Christopher's collection and we ALL see what has happening in the 8(?) years since. The History of that collection speaks for itself. All the 'market correction' threads took place on the L(go back and check the archives) and guess what? Yep, the market corrected itself by making Kirby art the most valuable of any artist-across the board-, on average. Only thing I regret was not buying EVERYTHING I could get my hands on. Argh...

 

I WISH someone would dump a big chunk of Byrne or Miller or McFarlane or.... on the market so I can buy everything at the new 'corrected' price and sit on it until history repeats itself and I make a KILLING. That would be fun!

 

I can honestly say, that will Never happen. That's right, I said it! (Anyone see the new Chris Rock special?)

 

You know I agree that there are some kooo-kooo prices being paid for some things, but for others... I think they are deals if you can even get the shot to buy them. Chalk me up for someone that wishes he had the chance to drop the most $ ever paid(unheard of $) for a piece of bronze art (at the time, and might still be) when the GS #1 cover was sold. I think it would sell for double the price paid, right now, yes, I mean today - at least. Then again, who know's? Maybe no one will care about the 'New X-Men' in a few months when the world's economy implodes and we are all trying to trade comic art for food.

[J.Sid]

2 months ago, the economy was very similar to the way it is now: not good. I remember logging into Heritage one day, seeing literally dozens of great Crumb pages in their upcoming auction, and thinking to myself "Fantastic! The economy is shaky, and now some fool is flooding the market with his vintage Crumb pages. Here is my chance to steal one on the cheap."

 

Uh.....right. I don't know if anyone paid attention to the results of the August 08 Heritage auction, but let's just say I didn't land myself a Crumb page.

 

In hindsight, I SHOULD have stretched (a lot) and won one. The people who got them are not likely to need lunch money anytime soon, and any/all future vintage great Crumb artwork for sale will certainly not be priced for lower than it sold for in August of 2008.

 

There will always be a home you can buy, there will always be a share of Google if you want one. When that page you want is gone though, it could be gone for good.

[Mac Man]

Sorry for the totally newbish question but what's a BSD?

 

Also, this is a great post. I know it's centered on Comic Art, but for those of us who are comic collectors, I'd (like to) think it carries over to funny books as well. Very informative stuff.

 

Here's a question though: if this stuff does take a drop in value, wouldn't a collector just want to continue sitting on their collection? I mean, my IRAs have dropped a touch in value (not much as they're pretty conservative accounts to begin with), but in theory, 10-20 years from now they should be back up. Wouldn't the same hold true for the art? I guess that's where the buy what you like comes into play since you'd need to hold on to it for a long period of time so you might as well like what you're looking at

 

But am I correct in this thinking?

[NelsonAI]

BSD is an abbreviation commonly used in financial services. The boards won't allow you to use the term. If you can't figure it out, PM me.

 

Cheers!

N

 

 

 

[Mac Man]

Someone filled me in--thanks guys!

[The Troll King]

unrelated sort of...

 

I sold Star Wars toys to Eric Roberts years ago when I dealt in vintage toys.

 

Also, home prices aren't falling everywhere. I've stated before about this. They are falling only where they were already over inflated. Texas is still as strong as ever but then again, we were never over inflated.