Economic Hardship in a Deflation and OA

[comix4fun]

I guess that explains why there's no more Aston Martin name plate in your sig

 

Mock me now, believe me later.

 

 

That line reminds me of someone...I can't quite place it...

[KreeSkrull99]

Who wants to be the *spoon* seen buying $40K Ditko pages and bragging about it on ComicArt-L and CAF in this tough economy rife with envy and class warfare rhetoric?

 

Like I keep saying - even those who have money will not be as keen to spend it when times are tough, either for optical, financial and/or psychological reasons.

 

 

Avoid Lamborghinis, Loud Logos Amid Financial Blues

 

2008-10-08 04:01:00.150 GMT

 

By Cotten Timberlake

 

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- In-your-face luxury is suddenly very passe.

 

Ostentatious taste and conspicuous consumption will make way for conservative looks and ``stealth wealth'' in the wake of the worldwide financial crisis, said Milton Pedraza, chief executive officer of the Luxury Institute in New York.

 

``Nobody wants to be the luxury pinata,'' Pedraza said in an interview yesterday after a global sell-off sent markets reeling from Europe to Asia. ``Who wants to be the focus of attention on greedy spending in a tremendous crisis?''

 

Luxury consumers will still covet extraordinary things, but they'll spend less and won't let everyone know what they're consuming, Pedraza said. That may be especially true for members of the financial industry, he said.

 

``If you made your money on Wall Street, you are going to be an unpopular guest,'' Pedraza said. ``You clearly need to be discreet, far more than those who made their money in, for example, technology. Even Donald Trump is going to be a little more subdued.''

 

Bloomberg News asked Pedraza to identify the dos and don'ts of luxury consumption during a financial meltdown. His firm surveys the wealthy regularly and sells data to clients including major luxury-goods makers.

 

Living in ``a huge McMansion'' is out, and buying a ``classic Colonial'' is in, Pedraza said. Owning the biggest yacht is out, and choosing an environmentally friendly model is in, he said.

 

``I don't think you'll want to show up in your orange Lamborghini,'' Pedraza said. `You might want to bring your navy blue BMW instead.''

 

Fewer Insignias

 

Oversize watches are no-nos, he said, while classic timepieces are de rigueur. Likewise, forget $10,000 mobile phones and buy an iPhone instead.

 

Insignia mania will subside as the wealthy get frugal, Pedraza predicted. That should benefit brands like Hermes, Bottega Veneta, Salvatore Ferragamo, Patek Philippe and Vacheron Constantin, he said.

 

``Logo-free is optimal,'' Pedraza said. ``Logo-subdued is the next-best alternative.''

 

Men's fashions will undergo a noticeable change, he forecast.

 

``The `I'm-rich-but-casual' look is out, and the `I'm- credible-and-conservative' suit and tie are in,'' Pedraza said.

 

``You don't want to be the most casual-looking guy in the room with a custom shirt and chinos.''

 

The tie will make a big comeback, he predicted, with men favoring slender styles with sedate patterns over solid bright- colored ties with big knots.

 

Loafers Out, Wingtips In

 

In the current environment, bold, multicolored shirts with French cuffs and bejeweled cuff links are ``tacky,'' Pedraza said.

 

Loafers -- in particular, rubber-studded driving shoes -- now seem ``flimsy'' and streamlined wingtips are the better, more substantial choice, he said.

 

Pedraza also said more men will start carrying attache cases as a symbol of gravitas. As for the bigger picture, the luxury expert sees a gender shift.

 

``Women are in as CEOs and board members, men are out,''

Pedraza said. ``Men have lost a lot of credibility.''

 

For Related News:

Top arts and lifestyle stories: MUSE Luxury goods stories: NI LUX Retailing and fashion stories: TNI RET CLO

 

--Editors: Rick Warner, Yvette Ferreol.

 

Is it me, or does this editorial seem to be in bad taste?

 

I mean, who gives a rats about a few posers trying to be fashionable by "downplaying" their wealth

 

Those with a classic sense of style would not need to alter their style to fit the latest fad , especially a fad based upon the "logic" espoused in this article

 

The bad taste of the article is only further compounded by the very tough economic times themselves

 

Who cares about the fashion of the Izod super loser anyways

 

pure nonsense

[sborock]

Well, this is a pretty good read so far.

 

Here is where I am at the moment:

 

I have not bought a piece of OA for myself in about six weeks. I am working for myself for the 1st time in almost 10 years, I need to focus on my business, not my collection. I have, however, spent quite a bit of $ on the Hero Initiative Hulk #1 books. I beleive these to be true variants (only about 150 made), a cool mix of collectible comic and OA, and the $ goes to a great cause (no, I do not "write it off"). I am also into the FS and SI covers, having a great time meeting the artists and seeing what they come up with. Rachel, my daughter, enjoys them as well, so it's a "daddy/daughter" thing as well.

 

I have some pieces that people have not seen yet. I have been busy, so I have not listed anything new in the OA section or my CAF as of late. I also no longer work at CGC and do not have a scanner big enough for OA at home.

 

I have sold one or two pieces this month for over what I paid during the year, but I think I got them for a great price at the time.

 

I get lots of offers for art I do not want to sell. Turned down a $20K offer for my Miller cover. If I needed the $ I would have taken the offer in a split second, but I will probably never get a Miller cover again, so being a collector, it is hard to let go of. I will probably look back at this decision a kick myself for being stupid.

 

I just finished my Overstreet Market Report and, while I said that things seem strong right now, I warned about collectibles in a very bad economy, stating that you can't house or feed your family with them. "Buy what you love and can afored", my usual war cry, was stated in the report.

 

I just got in a collection of books and OA and want to keep 2 pieces, (One really cool "grail" piece, at least to me; The Washington Monument splash page from Y:The Last Man.), but as a business person, I think I might let go of everything. That does show that the economy is affecting me a bit, but also, once again, I am starting a new business and should just buy and sell at the begining.

 

I once told a super rich client of NGC that I always worry about the prices of my collection and collectibles in general. His words were "As long as the millionaires keep becoming billionaires, don't worry. The good stuff will always be liquid". I would love to speak to him now and see if he still has $ and feels the same way. That would be very interesting to see.

 

I will never know the future or be as smart about the economy as many others here. I just know: Don't put all your eggs in one basket and be responsible. Other than that, I have nothing else to say except......

 

LONG LIVE COMIC BOOKS & OA!

 

 

[comix4fun]

I just got in a collection of books and OA and want to keep 2 pieces, (One really cool "grail" piece, at least to me; The Washington Monument splash page from Y:The Last Man.), but as a business person, I think I might let go of everything.

 

 

 

Steve, when you get the art sorted out I would love to see what you are selling from it.... (thumbs u

 

C

[NelsonAI]

OT:

Steve

I didn't realize you left CGC. Best of luck in your new venture.

Cheers!

N

 

[the blob]

yeah, but seriously, living artists whose work sells in the millions, that's just absurd right there. if they aren't about to croak there could be thousands of paintings in the pipeline.

[the blob]

delek --

 

enough doom and gloom. you doom and gloomers are unpatriotic!

 

on an unrelated note....

 

my insufficiently_thoughtful_person mother-in-law asks me incredulously "what, you wouldn't take an all cash offer on your house equal to the amount of your mortgage????" (I'm translating this from crazy oldladyese, she wouldn't phrase it like that) -- and I look at my wife and shake my head...no you stupid old B*itch, I would not sell my house for the amount of the mortgage and lose $400K in the process and not have a place to live, why the would I do that you insufficiently_thoughtful_person?

 

no matter what i tell this old biddy about how we had no plans to move (I have 7 bedrooms...space will never be a concern) and are fine with our mortgage payment, so it doesn't really matter what prices are like now, and that I'm not going to pull my hair out over my 401K because there are 20 more years before I will even touch the darn thing...she just keeps on screaming about the end of the world, cash in the mattress, gold, the homeless investment bankers and so on.

 

of course, most people are stupid like her so they probably will drag the world down into a 50 year depression and I guess I'll be the stupid one then.

[Mephisto]

 

 

of course, most people are stupid like her so they probably will drag the world down into a 50 year depression and I guess I'll be the stupid one then.

 

Of course most people are stupid why else would Bush have been voted in TWICE.

 

 

[tth2]

of course, most people are stupid like her so they probably will drag the world down into a 50 year depression and I guess I'll be the stupid one then.

Nah, people like her are the ones who sell at the bottom of the market. There's a reason why there's a lot of truth to the expression the poor get poorer and the rich get richer.

[tth2]

The November Heritage auction will certainly be an interesting test, because there is some great stuff in there, thus creating a true test. Perhaps a bit surprisingly, sellers haven't been hesitant to continue to put good stuff out there out of fear that prices may have softened (although they may be protecting themselves with humongous reserves).

 

By the time of the auction, the impact of the recent financial crises will have been more fully digested, so it will be interesting to see what kinds of prices the big ticket pieces are able to achieve.

[delekkerste]

The November Heritage auction will certainly be an interesting test, because there is some great stuff in there, thus creating a true test. Perhaps a bit surprisingly, sellers haven't been hesitant to continue to put good stuff out there out of fear that prices may have softened (although they may be protecting themselves with humongous reserves).

 

By the time of the auction, the impact of the recent financial crises will have been more fully digested, so it will be interesting to see what kinds of prices the big ticket pieces are able to achieve.

 

I think we already know how the auction will go. Some lots will still go for krazy money, and the True Believers will point to those healthy/record sales as proof positive that everything is 100% A-OK fine. Other prices will be soft and the % of unsold lots may well be higher than we've seen, but all data points other than the healthy/record sales will be summarily ignored, or dismissed as irrelevant.

 

In any case, the November auction will just be one data point. It would be unreasonable and unrealistic for a single sale to show a sudden and dramatic trend reversal. It will take some time, especially after the duration and magnitude of the prior bull market. Just look at NYC real estate - 2 years after the nationwide top, the data still indicate a healthy market even though peeling back the layers of the onion show anything but (nobody I know thinks their apartment is still worth what it was six months ago). It'll be interesting to see how things go over the next year as we slide into a true recession, which may affect the average collector more than the financial crisis has to date.

[the blob]

Just look at NYC real estate - 2 years after the nationwide top, the data still indicate a healthy market even though peeling back the layers of the onion show anything but (nobody I know thinks their apartment is still worth what it was six months ago).

******************************

 

the inability to get a frigging mortgage even if you have money in the bank, a solid income and great credit probably has more to do with that than anything

 

of course, 10,000 wall street lay offs ain't gonnah help....

 

the data i read on NYC shows 5-20% drops, depending on the hood. honestly, going back to 2004 levels would not be the worst thing in the world because 2006 prices were unhealthy --- too many people strangled by too high housing costs. obviously i won't be thrilled, having bought in 2006, but such is life, I also sold in 2006 at those levels --- it's a wash. of course, whilst the RE market was healthy here....and had a solid 12-14 or so years of steady gains, there wasn't as much crazy speculation going on and the subprime insanity tended to happen in a few areas. it took that long for some new construction to finally start picking up and even then the # of new units scheduled to be completed in the next year or so, if I remember correctly, is less than half the number of new units that were hitting the market in Miami when that bubble burst (and Miami is what, 1/6 - 1/4 the size?).

 

this town actually needs some more housing. I have friends paying $3800 a month to live in a modest 2 bedroom apartment in mitchell lama housing (a form of subsidized housing here) that is being converted to "market" rents. and it's not particularly nice mitchell lama, it looks like a frigging project. Friends across the street from them are paying $4500 for a modest 2 bedroom in non-converted projects housing.

 

maybe the new Goldman Sachs bank will need to hire some new bank tellers to help pick up some of those who have been laid off?

[the blob]

of course, most people are stupid like her so they probably will drag the world down into a 50 year depression and I guess I'll be the stupid one then.

 

Nah, people like her are the ones who sell at the bottom of the market. There's a reason why there's a lot of truth to the expression the poor get poorer and the rich get richer.

*************

 

she does, however, make a fantastic meat loaf and even better mashed potatoes.

[Sharkey]

The November Heritage auction will certainly be an interesting test, because there is some great stuff in there, thus creating a true test. Perhaps a bit surprisingly, sellers haven't been hesitant to continue to put good stuff out there out of fear that prices may have softened (although they may be protecting themselves with humongous reserves).

 

By the time of the auction, the impact of the recent financial crises will have been more fully digested, so it will be interesting to see what kinds of prices the big ticket pieces are able to achieve.

 

I think we already know how the auction will go. Some lots will still go for krazy money, and the True Believers will point to those healthy/record sales as proof positive that everything is 100% A-OK fine. Other prices will be soft and the % of unsold lots may well be higher than we've seen, but all data points other than the healthy/record sales will be summarily ignored, or dismissed as irrelevant.

 

The Heritage Auction has quite a bit of Kirby and Kirby/Sinnott FF in it. I'm already wondering if there is TOO much in the auction and will result in the pages not reaching their potential -- or the potential they could have reached if they had been released a couple pages at a time. I really don't think there are that many collectors out there who will be willing to pony up $10k to $15k for each of those pages, yet they're all darned nice. Since I have no idea what the reserves are, it's hard to make any pre-auction estimate as to whether they will actually sell or not. When you look at what the pages from ASM 31 sold for when Mastronet auctioned the whole issue at once, I have to expect the Heritage Kirby pages to go lower than expected because there are so many at once.

 

In addition, ComicLink is having an auction that starts Oct 30 and has some very interesting pieces in the preview so far. Great FF 55 page in that one.

 

Too much stuff at one time? I guess we'll have to wait and see.

 

I agree with you Gene that we are just entering the true recession -- wait till the retail sales for the holidays come up way short and the tax receipts are dismal -- California won't be the only state begging for money.

 

Yesterday's stock rally doesn't mean there's no recession or that everything's coming up roses. But what it does indicate is that the people who have money are ready to buy back in when things drop low enough, and that there was some optimism after a two-day respite from the uncertainty we saw last week.

 

The Question is: Do people have money to buy comic art with and are they willing to spend it?

[the blob]

The Heritage Auction has quite a bit of Kirby and Kirby/Sinnott FF in it. I'm already wondering if there is TOO much in the auction and will result in the pages not reaching their potential -- or the potential they could have reached if they had been released a couple pages at a time.

****************************************

 

wouldn't a real auctioneer try to convince some of the sellers to cut back on their offerings for this very reason? a bad looking auction could depress the market further.

[spider9698]

I agree but many items may have been consigned MONTHS ago when things were not so bleak. The question is whether reserves will be adjusted accordingly.

 

[Artemaria]

The Question is: Do people have money to buy comic art with and are they willing to spend it?

 

This comment begs the "wealth effect" question, which is not only whether people have the money, but even if they do, will they want to spend it on OA?

 

In an environment where the stock market can lose 20% in a week and then gain 11% in one day, November is now an eternity away.

 

However, until the uncertainty subsides, it may not be safe to assume that - come November - that people will either have the discretionary income, or, even if they do, will decide to spend it on OA at that time.

 

As with prior auctions, as ealier posts in this thread have noted, one thing that will certainly happen (and has happened in the past on these boards) is that the results of the upcoming auctions will be subject to some spin depending on the perspective of the person writing the posts.

 

Best regards.

 

- A

[spider9698]

VERY true about the spin doctors.

[tth2]

The Question is: Do people have money to buy comic art with and are they willing to spend it?

 

This comment begs the "wealth effect" question, which is not only whether people have the money, but even if they do, will they want to spend it on OA?

 

In an environment where the stock market can lose 20% in a week and then gain 11% in one day, November is now an eternity away.

 

However, until the uncertainty subsides, it may not be safe to assume that - come November - that people will either have the discretionary income, or, even if they do, will decide to spend it on OA at that time.

In a world where people are still spending over $3300 for a CGC 9.4 Jimmy Olsen #53 and almost $1800 for a CGC 9.4 Jimmy Olsen #57, in a weekly Heritage auction, there is not a doubt in my mind that people are still willing to spend crazy amounts of money on comic-related collectibles.

[dem1138]

I've been selling some Marvel Keys over the last few months and can attest that people are definitely still buying and are paying above GPA.