CBS MarketWatch: Collectibles Are "The Stupid Investment Of The Week"

[Bronty]

Videogames have been mined far less than comics, kind of like comics were in the 1970's where no one but collectors knew comics were worth anything so you could pick up golden age at book merchants/flea markets for pennies. Almost no one has a clue that the old boxed 2600 game thats incredibly rare is worth more than a few bucks.

 

SO true... I ran across a video store inventory a few months back. Everything was priced at $60, whether it was worth $20 or $200...

[Bronty]

I doubt today's gamers are going to be so nostalgic as to want MOC unopened videogame cartridges, at least not in any great quantity. IMHO.

 

Gene

 

While the amount of future growth is up for debate, I would argue prospects are good. But the key point is that it's not going to take much growth to fuel price increases. Some NES titles have zero, one, or two known sealed copies. Only takes three collectors in that scenario, and there are certainly more than that already. You wouldn't believe the magnitude of price increases on rare sealed games in the past 12 months alone..

[Bronty]

Heres a listing of fufilled auctions of 2600 games from several years back.

 

http://www.geocities.com/vvge2001/RarityLists/auction.txt

 

 

 

Interesting. And that list looks outdated as I saw an eli's ladder ($251 on this list) sell for $1002 on Ebay. However, I'm not by ANY means an expert on 2600, I just make that one observation.

 

And if you think $1002 is big cake, the gold nintendo world championship cart (only 26 copies in any condition) just sold for a cool $5K

 

Not bad for a collectible that's a little less than 15 years old, huh? X-Force #1 doesn't really compare

[delekkerste]

A huge part of collecting is about nostalgia. Nostalgia is all about future shock. The rapid change of the environment around us makes us remember fondly the obsolete things from our childhood. The pace of technology is only increasing daily. I see there being more people drawn to collecting, not less.

 

While the amount of future growth is up for debate, I would argue prospects are good. But the key point is that it's not going to take much growth to fuel price increases.

 

Personally, I don't think people will feel the need to own the original data bits in sealed original packaging...I think they will become nostalgic for the *games*, meaning they will download them for free off the 'Net to play on emulators or the gamemakers will repackage them to play on new consoles.

 

What you envision may develop into a small market, and if not too many people jump into it, money might be able to be made. However, I think most of the current buying is in speculation of this becoming the next big thing...I can see maybe a crazy fad period like Beanie Babies where fortunes are made and lost, but if we're talking about 10 or more years from now, I highly, highly doubt this is going to be the next big sustainable thing.

 

Nostalgia will never die, but in the digital age, I believe it will not necessarily be manifested in collecting old relics.

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

1. Collectables go in cycles. Like the stock market, you buy when they are low and sell when they are high (if that is where your interests are).

 

That implies regular periodicity and does not account for secular declines, which I believe the comic book hobby is in (as are cards, stamps and coins). Not saying they are going away anytime soon, but I doubt any of them will be as popular as they were in the 20th century.

 

 

5. Anything with historical significance (as my friends civil war items) will always be in demand, but will only increase in value as its history becomes more obscure.

 

Hugely disagree. The more time that passes, the more new history is created, dividing the attention of potential collectors.

 

 

What I didn't know was how much they would go for (though positive more than $5 a piece). In 2000 discovered Ebay and sold every one I had for $300 or more. Poor investment? I think not. I bet many real estate and stock players would like to claim such a percentage on their investments in such a short period of time.

 

First of all, no one is arguing that collectibles were a good buy in the 1980s and some of the 1990s (depending on the collectible). The question is how they will perform going forward, and I have laid out a case that maybe it's not going to be so good.

 

Secondly, while you made a nice percentage return on those Transformers back then, it only amounted to around $1770. I would much rather have bought Microsoft or Manhattan real estate back in 1992 and made a veritable fortune. Yes, it would have taken more than a $30 investment, but then again, for most people, $30 is not really an investment. Most people probably have more than $30 to invest and they could probably make more absolute dollars directing their research and analysis into potential investments with a bigger dollar payoff.

 

Gene

[joe_collector]

This is an insightful comment. Some game systems are TOO early/primitive to really be collectible, in my opinion. Atari is somewhat collectible, but I see the NES (the original Nintendo, just before the Super Nintendo or SNES that Joe is referring to) as the Marvel Silver Age of video games, so to speak.

 

Okay, I'm an insufficiently_thoughtful_person.

 

I meant the NES (for obvious reasons) and I even get these two terms mixed up while searching on EBay. And to all my detractors who like to jump on my "mistakes" please note that I am collecting some Genesis titles, which came in between the NES and SNES.

 

So to correct my earlier statement:

 

The original NES was the start of the video game boom, no question there, and that's where I'd start for collecting/investment purposes.

[drbanner]

And to all my detractors who like to jump on my "mistakes" please note that I am collecting some Genesis titles, which came in between the NES and SNES.

 

So to correct my earlier statement:

 

The original NES was the start of the video game boom, no question there, and that's where I'd start for collecting/investment purposes.

 

Baaaaaa!!!!

 

[fantastic_four]

Personally, I don't think people will feel the need to own the original data bits in sealed original packaging...I think they will become nostalgic for the *games*, meaning they will download them for free off the 'Net to play on emulators or the gamemakers will repackage them to play on new consoles.

 

I've been playing video games for a LOT longer than I've been collecting comics and I agree. A comic book is a physical product, but the physical aspect of video games is a necessary by-product. I've downloaded all the emulators and all my favorite games for Atari 2600/5200, ColecoVision, NES, SNES, and Genesis, but I don't know why I'd want to buy the physical cartridges themselves.

 

The game package market will also be affected by certificate technology and higher bandwidths as they make the downloading of games via the Internet more viable; eventually games won't even be distributed by cartridge or disc anymore. But who knows, this could make the cartridge and disc market even MORE viable for a limited time span. It's just as easy to make the same generalistically sweeping argument for how Flash animations via the web should kill the comic book market.

[fantastic_four]

That implies regular periodicity and does not account for secular declines, which I believe the comic book hobby is in (as are cards, stamps and coins). Not saying they are going away anytime soon, but I doubt any of them will be as popular as they were in the 20th century.

 

Don't expect you to know the answer to this question for all four hobbies, but when did the decline begin for cards, stamps, comics, and coins, and what caused it? What caused you to group them all together--do you see technology (JPEGs, e-mail, CGI, and credit cards) as the primary purpose for the decline?

[scottish]

 

That implies regular periodicity and does not account for secular declines, which I believe the comic book hobby is in (as are cards, stamps and coins). Not saying they are going away anytime soon, but I doubt any of them will be as popular as they were in the 20th century.

 

I'm curious about this statement as well. I have no clue as to the market in regard to cards and stamps (even coins for that matter), but I would believe that coins with gold, platinum or silver would retain some value as those metals are a finite resource and perceived to be of actual monetary value.

[Bronty]

Personally, I don't think people will feel the need to own the original data bits in sealed original packaging...I think they will become nostalgic for the *games*, meaning they will download them for free off the 'Net to play on emulators or the gamemakers will repackage them to play on new consoles.

 

Well, since neither of us can disprove the other we're going around in circles somewhat but I have to say I disagree. Sure, *most* people will be happy with emulators. But what about that 1 out of every 20 or 50 or 100 that wants to collect? You have to remember the size of the video game market - it's HUGE. More kids play video games today than there ever were kids reading comics. 1% of millions is a hell of a lot.

 

Allow me to relate a quick anecdote which I think is very telling. I went to a comic con as a dealer once and put a copy of the original metroid out on my table with a sign saying "I buy video games" or something. Everybody under 25 had a nostalgia-related epileptic fit and wanted to know how much I was selling it for. I'm serious, you would not BELIEVE the expressions on the faces of some of these people. They were all 18-25 and sleepwalking around the con looking bored and the metroid lit up their faces, no joke. One kid that wanted to buy it couldn't have been a day over 12. (It wasn't for sale, and I wouldn't have the heart to tell his mother the price anyway). Everyone over 25 passed by it like it wasn't there and looked at the comics.

 

As far as the packaging goes - that has a strong appeal in any field. Why do people buy sealed toys they can't play with, encapsulated comics they can't read, trading cards (all you can do is look at them - yay) etc etc etc... I think saying the packaging has no appeal is pretty close minded.

 

Hell, I bet this pic will bring back strong memories for some of you

 

 

 

[blazingbob]

relic?

 

Hey, what exactly defines a relic these days?

 

Being 43 I take offense to that comment

 

[Bronty]

Being 43 is the definition of being a relic

 

Just kidding, my time at that age will come Hell, I bought a skateboard type shirt the other day so that I dress 18 instead of 28 once in a while

[Illiterati-migration]

 

Hell, I bet this pic will bring back strong memories for some of you

 

 

 

That picture is giving me a chubby. Does that mean I'm a video game collector now?

[THE_BEYONDER]

Being 43 is the definition of being a relic

 

Just kidding, my time at that age will come Hell, I bought a skateboard type shirt the other day so that I dress 18 instead of 28 once in a while

 

What " skateboard type shirt " did you buy?

[joe_collector]

Okay, now am I the only one who wants a back cover scan?

[COI]

Personally, I don't think people will feel the need to own the original data bits in sealed original packaging...I think they will become nostalgic for the *games*, meaning they will download them for free off the 'Net to play on emulators or the gamemakers will repackage them to play on new consoles.

 

Like I mentioned in my above post, I had a NES system, but I never got to have many games. A lot of my Nostalgia IS tied up more in the packaging itself, than the actual games. Seeing the sealed games in toy stores, but never getting any was a regular part of my childhood. So when Bronty shows me sealed games of his, I get that rush of nostalgia, which has nothing to do with the gameplay itself. I suspect thatthere will be a number of others in my boat. And when you add to the fact that sealed games are much more collectible(thrill of the hunt, etc..) I think there is definite potential for growth.

[scottish]

I lean more to the actual game side. I didn't really get into NES and such. I was always a coin-op guy so MAME has me set!

 

Almost every coin-op game ever made and I can play 'em all! At least the ones where I own the actual ROM.

[delekkerste]

So when Bronty shows me sealed games of his, I get that rush of nostalgia, which has nothing to do with the gameplay itself. I suspect thatthere will be a number of others in my boat. And when you add to the fact that sealed games are much more collectible(thrill of the hunt, etc..) I think there is definite potential for growth.

 

I would argue that you get this feeling and the nostalgic desire to acquire mint-condition sealed videogame cartridges because you already have a collector mentality. On the other hand, the average kid today has shown a clear preference for interactive activites like surfing the Web and playing videogames. Those that do collect things often assemble collections of things like CDs and DVDs, where it is the digital content, not the condition that matters. I highly doubt that people in mass quantities, with little or no exposure to collecting condition-sensitive nostalgia items before, will suddenly feel like paying big money for obsolete cartridges in their original packaging that they will have to make an effort to preserve.

 

Maybe enough people will be interested to start a niche hobby and maybe the speculators will come in and create another Beanie Baby sensation for a while, but I will be shocked if this catches on in a big, meaningful, sustainable way. I mean, are we going to see chains of specialty shops selling antique/obsolete videogames? An Overstreet Videogame Pricing Guide that sells enough copies to get published every year? Videogame conventions where the emphasis is on buying old cartridges preserved in mint condition as opposed to playing games and looking at upcoming releases?

 

I know there's a lot of smart people on this Board who seem to think so, but I'm going to stick to my guns and declare that there has been a cultural paradigm shift away from collecting condition-sensitive artifacts. We live in a digital, disposable, interactive age...the collecting habits of the next generation won't be what we've all grown up with.

 

Gene

[joe_collector]

I agree that the conditions necessary for a long-term, slow-moving market like comics will simply never exist again. There are too many speculators looking to jump on the next wave, technology is progressing at a fever pitch, and the online world means that any price spikes will be reported in real-time.

 

But just because sealed videogames will not have the SAME type of market and supporting industries (like OS), does not mean they will not be inherently collectible by the current generation.