FF Price Surge....what will the Guide say?

[fantastic_four]

Aww, I love you guys .

 

Aren't we a bunch of sweethearts?!?!?!

 

If Steve Geppi does end up buying that Action #1 NM 9.4 comic for a million bucks, but then somebody steals it from him or it gets burned up in a fire...do you think he would send an insurance claims adjuster a copy of the Overstreet guide to help them put a replacement value on it? If not, then why does the Guide list the prices it does for high grade, rare vintage comics?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Aww, I love you guys

 

You know, the Guide isn't totally without value. Its always a laugh to read the ads that you guys accept for publication that clearly haven't been edited, or even composed, by someone with at least a 9th grade education.

 

 

In all fairness though, the quality of the ads in the last five years has increased dramatically. Very slick, very professional (mostly). Now, if only the pricing data would approach reality.

[fantastic_four]

Now, if only the pricing data would approach reality.

 

It's decent at the 9.0 level and below, but for Golden Age and Silver Age, it hasn't been right at the 9.4 level for as long as I've been back in the hobby...and from everything I've heard about the multiples paid over the last few decades, it really hasn't been right since the 1970s when file copies and pedigree copies started to emerge as desirable.

 

The easiest way to correct the problem is to drop the 9.4 column, because I seriously am concerned about 9.2 or better vintage comics which get lost being valuated by claims adjusters at far less than they're worth.

[garthgantu]

A few points:

 

- Wizard has a distinct advantage in that it comes out 12x as frequently as the OS Guide, right?

 

- Wizard is basically fiction from cover to cover; at least the OS Guide has some factual data!!

 

- Has the Kelly Blue Book ever been spot on? Will a used car dealer - or even a new car dealership where you're trading in a used car - ever offered someone the "Blue Book" value? Not in my experience.

 

I would be the first to agree that the OS Guide isn't perfect. But it's basically comprehensive in terms of titles and does a solid job year after year. Consistency counts for something in my view, even if in this case the OS Guide is consistently a bit behind in reflecting the latest pricing shifts. It would be nice if the OS was slightly more realistic in terms of dropping prices on previously overvalued books (they do this on occasion), but when you only have one chance per year to nail the prices of what, 500,000 individual issues, in multiple grades, you can't expect to be totally accurate.

 

I do agree that the OS Guide should somehow tap into the more timely sales data represented by eBay and the auction houses, and should try to more accurately reflect real-world NM 9.4 and above prices... but how? If they suddenly upped the prices on all GA through BA books in NM 9.4 by 200%, would that be a good thing?

[garthgantu]

 

The easiest way to correct the problem is to drop the 9.4 column, because I seriously am concerned about 9.2 or better vintage comics which get lost being valuated by claims adjusters at far less than they're worth.

 

I don't know that this 'corrects the problem'... it just means you have even less data at the high end. For many of us, this isn't such a problem, as we have other resources at our disposal to value such books...

 

As for using the OS guide for an insurance claim, why would you? Use GPA and/or Heritage records. If the insurance adjustor insisted on using the OS guide, you could point to the fact that it doesn't include prices for books over NM 9.4 as one good reason not to do so...?

[Aman619]

I do agree that the OS Guide should somehow tap into the more timely sales data represented by eBay and the auction houses, and should try to more accurately reflect real-world NM 9.4 and above prices... but how? If they suddenly upped the prices on all GA through BA books in NM 9.4 by 200%, would that be a good thing?

 

remember prices were updated every month? that was too much. Better to come out once a year (maybe twice) and to but GPAnalysis or some other outfit already set up to collect up-to-the-minute sales and pricing data.

 

SOmehow I dont see Gemstone ever creating their own system at thispooint...

[fantastic_four]

I don't know that this 'corrects the problem'...

 

Yes it does--leave the highly variable prices up to market experts, just like Overstreet has always done for books above the NM level. If the Overstreet guide didn't list inaccurate prices on books above 9.0, then if you present a novice such as a claims adjuster with a list of books above 9.0, he's not able to use it for your books and he's forced to do what he should be doing already--going to a knowledgable dealer, like a Fishler, Wilson, Storms, Roter, etc.

 

You've ultimately got no control over how a claims adjuster values your books unless you want to go to court...Overstreet is widely accepted and if they hear a dealer saying your lost Spidey #1 CGC 9.4 is worth $50K, and they see Overstreet saying it's worth $28K, which number do you think they'll choose to go with?

[sfilosa]

Yes it does--leave the highly variable prices up to market experts, just like Overstreet has always done for books above the NM level. If the Overstreet guide didn't list inaccurate prices on books above 9.0, then if you present a novice such as a claims adjuster with a list of books above 9.0, he's not able to use it for your books and he's forced to do what he should be doing already--going to a knowledgable dealer, like a Fishler, Wilson, Storms, Roter, etc.

 

You've ultimately got no control over how a claims adjuster values your books unless you want to go to court...Overstreet is widely accepted and if they hear a dealer saying your lost Spidey #1 CGC 9.4 is worth $50K, and they see Overstreet saying it's worth $28K, which number do you think they'll choose to go with?

 

I really don't think that the Overstreet Guide was started (and continued for the past 33 years), for the sole purpose of valuing books incase of theft or damage. It was created to reflect a POINT IN TIME value of comic books in various conditions. They have said from the beginning, that many other factors other than the book and condition factor into a books value (including current demand, geography, etc.).

 

That said, is the Overstreet guide meant to PROTECT comic values (by the slow and steady growth method), or are they suppose to REFLECT comic values (and move prices up and down according to actual sales data).?

 

Maybe Bob Overstreet is really Alan Greenspan.

 

[Timely]

Name one guy in this entire hobby that could have done a better job than Overstreet? He is a freakin genius...always keeping upward momentum and pressure on the value of the books. That's why books sell for mulitples of guide.

 

Here's an example...

 

ASM #14 guides for $2800 in NM 9.4. We all know that CGC 9.4's are selling for about $8-9000, about 3 times guide. What if next year Bob takes the advice of people saying; "Price the books at what they REALLY sell for", and Bob lists the ASM #14 for $8500 in NM. Do you really think the book will still be selling for 3 times guide ($26,500)? Of course not. The book will still sell for $8-9000. So if all the copies sell that year for $8-9000, there is no upward movement in price... and the book stays at $8500 in the next years guide. This will happen again the following year and the next and the next. With no upward momentum the books will fall flat and no increases will ever be had (as the sales will always be AT GUIDE). Overstreet understands these BASIC principals of supply and demand.

 

People who critisize Overstreet's pricing technique have no clue about this, and should really be praising OS for making their collections have the value that they currently enjoy!

 

Timely

[joe_collector]

People who critisize Overstreet's pricing technique have no clue about this, and should really be praising OS for making their collections have the value that they currently enjoy!

 

That's pretty specious logic, as we all know the deal. Bob is artifically determining prices, and basically pumping in an annual "10% increase" into his database, regardless of what the real-world price actually is.

 

If you think that paying someone to pluck numbers out of mid-air is fine, then that's your right, but I prefer to know the truth, rather than listening to fairy tales.

[Aces]

I agree with FF.

Drop the NM94 column on pre-1975 books.

It's useless!

 

I mean:

 

ASM 50:

 

9.0 = $497.00 ($500)

9.4 = $650.00

 

You mean to tell me if I saw a CGC 9.0 (Blue-OW/W) go on eBay for $500 and the next day a CGC 9.4 (Blue-OW/W) was listed I could/would win it in a week for $150 more!?

 

 

In my dreams...

 

The OS pricing structure is linear.

Very Good is 2x Good

Fine is 3x Good and so forth.

This is OK until you hit 9.0/9.2.

Things get wacky then on pre-1975 books.

Just have 5 columns.

Pre 1975:

G VG F VF VF-NM

Post 1975:

G VG F VF NM

[fantastic_four]

I really don't think that the Overstreet Guide was started (and continued for the past 33 years), for the sole purpose of valuing books incase of theft or damage.

 

We know, still, the point about valuation by people who don't watch the market closely still applies. I should probably be thanking Overstreet--I wouldn't be able to buy the really nice 9.4 to 9.8 books for guide NM prices with a standard haggle-bump downwards by 10% to 20% from small, local dealers if it wasn't for the Guide misleading them.

 

 

It was created to reflect a POINT IN TIME value of comic books in various conditions. They have said from the beginning, that many other factors other than the book and condition factor into a books value (including current demand, geography, etc.).

 

What point in time are the current Marvel Silver Age 9.4 prices reflecting--1995? And where in the country are they selling for those prices--I WANT TO GO THERE!

 

He can still be Greenspan by reporting up to 9.0 and not past it.

[sfilosa]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

People who critisize Overstreet's pricing technique have no clue about this, and should really be praising OS for making their collections have the value that they currently enjoy!

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

That's pretty specious logic, as we all know the deal. Bob is artifically determining prices, and basically pumping in an annual "10% increase" into his database, regardless of what the real-world price actually is.

 

If you think that paying someone to pluck numbers out of mid-air is fine, then that's your right, but I prefer to know the truth, rather than listening to fairy tales.

 

 

Third time I agree with Joe (Ouch!!!).

 

I'm a CPA. What Overstreet is doing by not actually reflecting real sales data, is cooking the books. This would be illegal, if a company did this to their financial reports.

 

Yes, O/S is understating high grade book values so that he can continue to adjust them up every year, but look at it from an UNIFORMED PERSON'S POINT OF VIEW.

 

I person who knows nothing about comic books bring a bunch of NM Silver Age books to a dealer. The dealer shows the person the guide and says I will buy the books for close to guide price (maybe even guide price). The seller feels this is a very good price, BASED ON THE GUIDE.

 

Well as we know, those books are worth MULTIPLES of guide.

 

There "lies" the problem!!!!

[fantastic_four]

People who critisize Overstreet's pricing technique have no clue about this, and should really be praising OS for making their collections have the value that they currently enjoy!

 

I've only been back in collecting 3 years. I've heard your "rant" voiced by others about a dozen times since then, but what you're talking about didn't really sink in for me until he added the 9.0 column last year and left the 9.4 column prices pretty much where they were at the prior year with only the standard modest percentage bump.

 

So how do you think the conservative yearly increases will compare over the next decade against the services reporting actual sales (GPA, Standard Catalog of Comics, comicsheet)

[uclapeterg]

[garthgantu]

You've ultimately got no control over how a claims adjuster values your books unless you want to go to court...Overstreet is widely accepted and if they hear a dealer saying your lost Spidey #1 CGC 9.4 is worth $50K, and they see Overstreet saying it's worth $28K, which number do you think they'll choose to go with?

 

But FF, this works both ways...if the claims adjuster "lowballs" me on the NM 9.4 Iron Man #1 or whatever, by 'only' paying me the OS Guide 9.4 price, I can live with that... as long as he also pays me the OS price for each of my Youngblood #1s, and my mid-grade GA and SA Archies, etc...The only people who feel the OS Guide is totally out of whack and nigh unto worthless would seem to be the people focused only on high grade. If everything you own is CGC NM- 9.2 and above, then you may have a problem with your claims adjuster if they just go by the OS Guide. In that instance, I'm guessing you'd be deep-pocketed enough to take the matter to court and bring in a couple of experts like BlazingBob to back up your contention that the NM+ 9.6 books in your collection should be valued at some multiple of guide.

[garthgantu]

A couple more quick points:

 

Maybe some of my 'defensiveness' about the OS Guide is rooted in nostalgia... I don't think I'd have gotten seriously into collecting comics without it. (Reading comics, yes, collecting, no.) As a 10-year old, the OS Guide was one of my first indications that a) comics could have significant value years after they were printed; b) there was a whole community of other people who felt as strongly about comic books as I did.

 

To the extent that the OS Guide enables shady dealers to rip off people with pristine copies of SA and BA comics, it also equips many of those people with at least some general sense of what their comics may be worth.

 

If the OS Guide started using GPA to place values on NM 9.4 and above, it would cause some serious havoc. I can just see the ads now: "this ASM #1 went up 300% in the past year alone! It's a can't-miss investment opportunity!" Further, GPA doesn't really have the data to provide pricing for all comics; in fact, it's only really able to reflect the latest values of maybe 10% of the comics printed between 1938 and 1978, I'd estimate. Do you want little "????"s in the column for 9.4 value for everything else?

 

I'm not saying the OS Guide is perfect as-is, but I'm still waiting for a solution to the problem...no one's really come up with one other than "remove some of the existing data and throw your hands up in surrender." That's not a solution, IMO.

Besides, when the crash comes, some of your old OS Guides will be right AGAIN...! Kinda like a broken clock... So you'll save money by being able to use the 1995 edition in 2005

[sfilosa]

I'm not saying the OS Guide is perfect as-is, but I'm still waiting for a solution to the problem...no one's really come up with one other than "remove some of the existing data and throw your hands up in surrender." That's not a solution, IMO.

Besides, when the crash comes, some of your old OS Guides will be right AGAIN...! Kinda like a broken clock... So you'll save money by being able to use the 1995 edition in 2005

 

 

I love the guide also. I use to love looking at the covers in the Annual Guide, going back to the late 70's, which was before the Gerber books came out.

 

My solution has nothing to do with not showing NM (9.4). But, what would be wrong with at least trying to get those numbers a little bit more accurate. Most Silver-Age Marvel issues before 1968 (when the new title started) go for 3-4 times Overstreet Guide in CGC NM.

 

Read that one more time. A CGC NM (9.4) sells for 3-4 times the O/S Guide NM value!!!!

 

That's WAY TO FAR OFF.

 

 

[blowout]

Read that one more time. A CGC NM (9.4) sells for 3-4 times the O/S Guide NM value!!!!

 

True, but what does the OS guide have to do with CGC graded books and the extra premiums they recieve?

[sfilosa]

Read that one more time. A CGC NM (9.4) sells for 3-4 times the O/S Guide NM value!!!!

 

True, but what does the OS guide have to do with CGC graded books and the extra premiums they recieve?

 

EVERYTHING!!!

 

The premium a book receives by being CGC graded is actually only two things.

 

1) That the book is really a NM

2) That the book is unrestored

 

Which is, EXACTLY what Overstreet's guide is suppose to reflect in it's values.

 

 

What you are implying is that Overstreet's NM value is really guide price for a book that might or might not really be NM, and might or might not be unrestored.