FF Price Surge....what will the Guide say?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

For those of us on these boards who love our high grade FFs, I want to hear some predictions for what the 2004 Overstreet Guide may have to say about the last 12 months of price hikes. Granted, we know the value increases tend to be conservative, sometimes unrealistically so, but regardless, can we expect to see the same steady growth or a surge more in line with the actual market, in the newest edition?

 

Other questions of note:

 

1). Will certain issues "seperate" themselves from the issue groupings that haven't been revised in what seems like forever. For example, FF # 14-19 have for years been grouped together at the same basic price level, but anyone who has been studying sales can attest to the fact that # 15 & # 16 have clealry seperated themselves this past year. What other candidates stand out in your mind?

 

2). Will the Bronze Age books finally get the respect they deserve? $18 for a NM # 129....know where I can get one (or eight)?

 

That's all.

 

[joe_collector]

Slow and steady is the Overstreet way, and I don't see that changing. After all OS is mainly a dealer "buy for 30% of Guide" publication, not a real price guide.

[uclapeterg]

39 for the longest time wasn't separated from 31-40. Is it now? I can't remember.

 

I actually think 25 and 26 are priced a little too high.

 

I agree with you about 15 and 16. 14 and 18 were difficult for me to find too, though.

 

I think 4 and 5 are still priced too low.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see all 20-35 cent Fantastic Four issues to double in three years (especially the keys).

[fantastic_four]

Like Joe says, it won't change much; this year has been no different to me than the last few since I started collecting FF.

 

Overstreet should stop pricing books above the 9.0 level; they can't keep up with it. Technology-based services like GPAnalysis are the best way to go on the top-end stuff. If an insurance claims adjuster used Overstreet to price my almost-impossible-to-find 9.2 and up books, I'd have a freakin' conniption.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

this year has been no different to me than the last few since I started collecting FF.

 

Really? Then put your FF # 52 up for sale (the "special" one)...you may make back what you put into it.

 

Seriously, certain issues have really surged. Here's a good example:

 

FF 15 CGC 8.5

 

How many non-key Marvels with off-White pages go for 1.33x NM Guide in VF+? Not too darn many. There are a handful of other issues that I can think of that have consistently broken every standard multiple. # 39 was a good example...9.0s were fetching double Guide on ebay all year long. I just wonder if the Guide is going to highlight these strong performers and set them apart.

 

 

 

[sfilosa]

Overstreet should stop pricing books above the 9.0 level; they can't keep up with it.

 

 

When did you figure that out?

 

I remember collecting 25 years ago and most high-grade books went for over guide. So Overstreet has been consistent (consistently wrong that is), for over 25 years.

 

 

 

 

[garthgantu]

Ah, but Sfilosa, consistency can make up for a lot of things. At least the OS Guide has erred in the same "direction" every year. As FF will likely point out, Overstreet has always taken the 'slow and steady' path, in order to not have to adjust values downward after pumping them too high.

 

I still like the OS Guide, and will continue to buy it every year. I bear in mind that prices for books in VF/NM 9.0 and better are often well under the present "market prices," but it's far better than nothing - or Wizard.

[sfilosa]

Ah, but Sfilosa, consistency can make up for a lot of things. At least the OS Guide has erred in the same "direction" every year. As FF will likely point out, Overstreet has always taken the 'slow and steady' path, in order to not have to adjust values downward after pumping them too high.

 

I still like the OS Guide, and will continue to buy it every year. I bear in mind that prices for books in VF/NM 9.0 and better are often well under the present "market prices," but it's far better than nothing - or Wizard.

 

 

I buy it every year also.

[minutekev@50]

Ah, but Sfilosa, consistency can make up for a lot of things. At least the OS Guide has erred in the same "direction" every year. As FF will likely point out, Overstreet has always taken the 'slow and steady' path, in order to not have to adjust values downward after pumping them too high.

 

I still like the OS Guide, and will continue to buy it every year. I bear in mind that prices for books in VF/NM 9.0 and better are often well under the present "market prices," but it's far better than nothing - or Wizard.

 

 

I buy it every year also.

 

I just bought one from House.

[joe_collector]

Ah, but Sfilosa, consistency can make up for a lot of things. At least the OS Guide has erred in the same "direction" every year. As FF will likely point out, Overstreet has always taken the 'slow and steady' path, in order to not have to adjust values downward after pumping them too high.

 

Sure, but that doesn't make it a valid Price Guide, but more like a "What Bob Overstreet Thinks Comic Book Prices Should Be" Guide.

 

Although neither are close, Wizard is actually closer to real market prices on hot books than OS, but their failing is fewer Silver and Bronze listings, and too much Modern drek.

[garthgantu]

Exactly. To say that Wizard is closer on the modern stuff is like saying "well, we took out an entire village of innocent civilians, but we think we got a couple of the enemy, too." Who cares if they're close on the modern stuff? The modern stuff is a total crapshoot anyway. It's just as likely that Wizard's loony modern prices are *driving* that part of the market than that they are a reflection of it.

 

So while the OS Guide remains stolidly anchored in the past, it's a past I care about And I do think that over the years, the OS Guide's approach has proved to be the right one - conservative and a tad "behind the times" (especially in the past few years), but at least it's a reasonable reflection of general pricing. Remember, we're a bit insulated from the 'average' collector, whose boxes contain far more mid-grade and low-grade copies than NM copies.

[fantastic_four]

this year has been no different to me than the last few since I started collecting FF.

 

Really? Then put your FF # 52 up for sale (the "special" one)...you may make back what you put into it.

 

Seriously, certain issues have really surged. Here's a good example:

 

FF 15 CGC 8.5

 

How many non-key Marvels with off-White pages go for 1.33x NM Guide in VF+? Not too darn many. There are a handful of other issues that I can think of that have consistently broken every standard multiple. # 39 was a good example...9.0s were fetching double Guide on ebay all year long. I just wonder if the Guide is going to highlight these strong performers and set them apart.

 

The harder to find 8.0 to 9.0 FFs were going for near or over Overstreet NM prices since CGC started. My FF 52 was representative of only one thing--the seller didn't realize how high the multiples are on 9.6s. Do I think Overstreet is off? Oh, absolutely. Is he more off this year than the last few? No, I paid over double Overstreet NM for my CGC 9.0 copies of #17 and #18 last year just like people are doing this year.

[fantastic_four]

I still like the OS Guide, and will continue to buy it every year. I bear in mind that prices for books in VF/NM 9.0 and better are often well under the present "market prices," but it's far better than nothing - or Wizard.

 

I shared your same viewpoint until I started a practice which takes very little time and is far, far superior to Overstreet or even GPA--I save completed auction web pages to my hard disk for the titles I collect. It's an incredibly rich resource that possibly gives me more information than any other collector has at their fingertips, and it only takes like 2-4 seconds to save an auction to disk. I've got final prices, dates, scans, and for ebay auctions, the username of the person who bought the item. I've used that a bunch of times to my benefit.

 

However, since I only save select data on around 5-6 titles, I still need Overstreet and GPA for all the others I sometimes venture out into. After becoming used to my own collected auction data, I now find GPA to be far more useful than Overstreet.

[joe_collector]

After becoming used to my own collected auction data, I now find GPA to be far more useful than Overstreet.

 

I totally agree, and while I'm no rah-rah fan of GPA, it is far, far, far, far superior to watching Bob type in "10% increase" into his database and then wait 2 hours for the updates.

 

At some point he has to stop taking money for free and get some real-world data, a la GPA.

[HooDeeDoo]

It's gonna be the same old same old.

 

I love it when they raise prices on NM books that don't even EXIST in Near Mint. But the price still goes up every year.

 

Remember, there's a reason it's called a "guide".

[joe_collector]

I love it when they raise prices on NM books that don't even EXIST in Near Mint. But the price still goes up every year.

 

Just like magic.... using wonderous sales numbers taken from the Land of Fairies!

[lou_fine]

Exactly. To say that Wizard is closer on the modern stuff is like saying "well, we took out an entire village of innocent civilians, but we think we got a couple of the enemy, too." Who cares if they're close on the modern stuff? The modern stuff is a total crapshoot anyway. It's just as likely that Wizard's loony modern prices are *driving* that part of the market than that they are a reflection of it.

 

JC;

 

I am going to have to agree with Garth here. Wizard is basically useless as a price guide. I believe that Wizard since their inception in 1990 have always attempted to be the trendsetter when it comes to HOT MODERN books. I strongly believe this part of the market follows Wizard and sometimes even lag the Wizard price guide.

 

Bottom-line: Hyping hot new books and getting the market to tag along behind your rising prices helps to ensure big sales for your magazine!

[joe_collector]

I am going to have to agree with Garth here. Wizard is basically useless as a price guide.

 

Choosing between Wizard and OS for current pricing is like picking death by electrocution or lethal injection. One may be slightly better, but neither is preferable.

 

What I like about Wizard is that they at least try and join 2003, while OS updates are something anyone could do with a calculator.

 

Example: When Daredevil was hot (pre-movie hype) Wizard listed it as such, and even had a few Miller issues in their hotlist. Regardless of their motives, DD issues doubled or tripled in value during that zany period, and Wizard reported on it, and priced their issues up.

 

That reflected the current market, regardless of whether Wizard had to lower prices later on. OS takes the "slow and steady" route to ensure fewer ups and downs, which yields nothing approaching a real-world price.

 

At least Wizard tries. They may fail, but it's better than upping Gold by 12%, Silver by 10% and Bronze by 8% for next year's OS prices.

[lou_fine]

Actually, just took a quick flip through my copy of OS and found something that is overvalued in the guide. Namely, the back issues of the old Overstreet price guides.

 

Do you guys thing I can get anything close to $1,700 for my NM+ copy of the first white cover OS guide? Only way is if CGC gives it an 9.6 or 9.8, I guess. Just glad I didn't have to pay very much for it.

[ArnoldTBlumberg]

Aww, I love you guys .

 

Arnold