FF Price Surge....what will the Guide say?

[lou_fine]

That number sounds low to me too. Some people out there aren't selling their books anytime soon so there is no reason to use CGC. I think it's more like 10% graded, if that.

 

Personally, I disagree. For high grade, unrestored, 1961-1963 Marvels that have a legitimate shot at 9.0 or better, I would say at least 40-50% have been submitted already.

 

From 1964-1965, the percentage is probably around 25%, and from 1966-1969 (the peak of the late Silver Age glut), I would say its closer to 15%.

 

 

I strongly disagree with you on your inflated percentage estimates. Probably the majority of the high grades owned by the forum members have been graded by CGC. But there are a LOT of long-time collectors out there with substantial collections out there who are not paying any attention to the daily speculative swings in the CGC market. They are long-term collectors and as such, have no need to slab their books. I agree that your percentages would apply to the books held by short-term speculators.

 

Peersonally, I have a bunch of high-grade GA books which would blow away some of the current graded copies showing up on the CGC census report. Why in the world would I want to have them graded since I have no intention of selling them. I know lots of other collectors in the same boat since I haven't seen their high-grade copies in the census yet. The same also applies to the Silver-Age which was even more heavily collected.

[Aman619]

Overstreet helps keep the market from crashing by always slowly increasing prices. Because they always increase, and trail the market, he never has to LOWER a price. If he jumped up one year or three years in a row, and THEN had to lower the price in a bad market year, that would signal a weakness in the market and potentially a ripple effect leading to a (whimper) CRASH!

 

Because Overstreet has consistently maintained his pricing routines to trail the market, we have a perfect track record of increase after increase. And it doesnt affect real transaction prices since the concept of multiples of guide is so well entrenched. Also, because the Guide will keep increasing the price year after year, it takes the risk and sting out of paying over guide because you can be assured he will catch up sooner or later to what you paid.

[joe_collector]

Because Overstreet has consistently maintained his pricing routines to trail the market, we have a perfect track record of increase after increase.

 

Exactly, and that would all be fine and dandy, if its title was Overstreet Comic Book Fairy Tales.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Probably the majority of the high grades owned by the forum members have been graded by CGC. But there are a LOT of long-time collectors out there with substantial collections out there who are not paying any attention to the daily speculative swings in the CGC market. They are long-term collectors and as such, have no need to slab their books. I agree that your percentages would apply to the books held by short-term speculators.

 

I don't doubt this, but in my personal experience, once some of those "long-time" collectors start submitting those "NM" books they bought years ago, they'll start getting back F/VFs, VFs, and books with previously undisclosed restoration. I've seen it happen to one of those long time collectors when I still lived in LA, and needless to say, he wasn't thrilled.

 

I don't doubt that Silver Age Marvels especially have had a long and devoted following of high grade collectors, and that many of those books lie neatly tucked away in a dark closet or safe-deposit box. I just find it hard to believe (based on 15 years of collecting experience) that there are hoards of 9.0 or better raw books from the late 50s, early 60s still out there.

 

 

 

[Foolkiller]

Actually, I think there's more DC collectors out there with unslabbed books than Marvel collectors... I've already personally seen three collections where the owners have informed me they don't intend on slabbing until they sell. Those collections contain some of the most pristine books I've ever seen, and I'm thinking of one collection in particular. He used to bring his "under copy" into the store for his wall when he would upgrade, and those were nice solid VF+ or VF/NM books. The Marvels he had in his collection were also spectacular books... and his reasoning for not slabbing was basically for him right now, it's a waste of money, until he sells.

 

The other two collections will probably remain unslabbed until sold by their respective estates as both individuals have sizeable incomes and don't need money... I'm sure if CGC is still around (I hope they are) in 30 years, then the books might be slabbed by their heirs for resale.

 

But I've noticed this trend of non slabbing more with DC collectors than Marvel guys, who tend to want to get everything slabbed.

 

Again, what makes me nervous is the number of collections I've seen with high grade unslabbed books in what I would call a very small and limited experience in the hobby... and if I've seen that many collections of nice high grade books... I can only imagine what the numbers are nationally. But that's why the old motto should be adhered to, buy what you like.

[fantastic_four]

Because Overstreet has consistently maintained his pricing routines to trail the market, we have a perfect track record of increase after increase. And it doesnt affect real transaction prices since the concept of multiples of guide is so well entrenched. Also, because the Guide will keep increasing the price year after year, it takes the risk and sting out of paying over guide because you can be assured he will catch up sooner or later to what you paid.

 

So do you agree with Timely's concern that GPA and ComicSheet reporting more realistic numbers will have a negative impact on the market?

[sfilosa]

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Because Overstreet has consistently maintained his pricing routines to trail the market, we have a perfect track record of increase after increase. And it doesnt affect real transaction prices since the concept of multiples of guide is so well entrenched. Also, because the Guide will keep increasing the price year after year, it takes the risk and sting out of paying over guide because you can be assured he will catch up sooner or later to what you paid.

 

 

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So do you agree with Timely's concern that GPA and ComicSheet reporting more realistic numbers will have a negative impact on the market?

 

 

I believe there will be less deviation from the average sale price as more and more people use GPAnalysis and other current comic book market tools.

 

A perfect example was when gman said nice FF #12 in CGC 8.0 on ComicLink. Originally, $2K didn't seem so far fetch since a CGC 9.4 was selling in the high teens lately. Yet, once GPAnalysis was used, it was realized that $2K was a very high price.

 

 

[garthgantu]

As long as I have collected high grade comics, there have been multiples. From the "big" books of the 80s (TMNT # 1, ASM # 129, Hulk # 181, X-Men # 94, etc.), to the run-up of Silver Age in the late 80s/early 90s, to the big rush on golden age in the early/mid 90s, to the current CGC market. As long as I wanted to be picky, and demand the best, there was a dealer who would be happy to accomodate my requests with multples of Guide for asking prices.

 

Oh, I have no doubt that dealers have been *asking* for over-guide prices for decades. Whether they've been selling at those prices, I question. Sure, there are exceptions, but for the most part, over-guide prices being paid for any but a small handful of key books is a recent phenomenon, IMO.

 

I'm sure we all can recall seeing true HG books on walls in comic shops that were listed at over guide... and seeing them again on our next visit to the same shop...and the next visit...

[garthgantu]

So unless we're holding up Chuckie R. as our shining example, yes, I'd say that as a commonplace pricing scheme, multiples of guide is a very recent phenomenon.

 

Who said the Mile High collection is the only one to command multiples of guide? Is that what you're arguing--it's the only one?

 

FF, I didn't state this well - what I meant was that Chuck R. is one of the few dealers who seems to ask over-guide prices for everything, in every condition, and has for decades. Didn't mean to suggest that the Church collection is the only pedigree commanding multiples.

[garthgantu]

The Guide should change to report the multiples paid, or it should drop the pricing on NM altogether to stop misleading the people who don't realize how rare vintage high grade is so they stop making bad decisions regarding those books. Original owners selling too cheaply is one scenario, claims adjusters undervaluing books is another, and smaller shops and con dealers selling too cheaply is yet another.

 

FF, if the tables were turned, you'd be demanding completed/signed insurance claim forms detailing such "undervaluing" by insurers, along with hard data proving that original owners and smaller shops and con dealers are selling too cheaply. Just remember I didn't ask for this data, next time we're having an 'argument'

[garthgantu]

On the subject of % of high grade GA and SA books that have been slabbed, I think the number is still very small. CGC has recently stated they've slabbed over 500,000 comics. That to me seems like a very small number, given the hundreds of millions of comics printed annually back in much of the 1940s and early '50s. Even if only one tenth of 1% of all the books printed in 1940 are in VF or better today, and 'only' 100 million were printed that year, that would be 100,000 high grade comics from 1940 alone.

 

I'm sure someone on these boards has the rough numbers for books printed per year back in the day...? Help me out here before FF sics the data police on me!

[Aman619]

Because Overstreet has consistently maintained his pricing routines to trail the market, we have a perfect track record of increase after increase. And it doesnt affect real transaction prices since the concept of multiples of guide is so well entrenched. Also, because the Guide will keep increasing the price year after year, it takes the risk and sting out of paying over guide because you can be assured he will catch up sooner or later to what you paid.

 

So do you agree with Timely's concern that GPA and ComicSheet reporting more realistic numbers will have a negative impact on the market?

 

Do you mean 'negative' as a way of saying that their accurate prices would start a crash? I think that to the extent that their price collecting is universal, then they perform a valuable service. When we buy dont we all want to know just what 'market price' is for a particular book? They are just providing the endless and tedious research that most of us arent willing or able to do for ourselves (I know that YOU manage it, but I cant) So they only give us the info.. we decide what to buy and for how much based on that info.

 

If prices started getting soft in a hurry I COULD see how accurate timely reporting of a falling price trend could accellerate on itself with GPA info in a way that Overstreet's prices never could (being yearly). So maybe GPA is a part of the signs of the apocalypse to come!

[Timely]

 

I strongly disagree with you on your inflated percentage estimates. Probably the majority of the high grades owned by the forum members have been graded by CGC. But there are a LOT of long-time collectors out there with substantial collections out there who are not paying any attention to the daily speculative swings in the CGC market. They are long-term collectors and as such, have no need to slab their books. I agree that your percentages would apply to the books held by short-term speculators.

 

Peersonally, I have a bunch of high-grade GA books which would blow away some of the current graded copies showing up on the CGC census report. Why in the world would I want to have them graded since I have no intention of selling them. I know lots of other collectors in the same boat since I haven't seen their high-grade copies in the census yet. The same also applies to the Silver-Age which was even more heavily collected.

 

I have to disagree here. I know a collector who has a full Marvel run in 9.4 to 10.0. He found the collection in a trunk just a few miles away from where the Mile High collection was discovered. He said every book is flawless with bone White pages, with the exeception of the AF #15, which was the book on top that got damaged by the trunk's lock, but it's still a VF with White pages. All his books are ungraded and would surely be a pedigree unto itself! I think he paid $10,000 for the set back in 1982-1985.

 

Timely

[murph0]

Let us know when he actually gets them graded. I've seen far too many people who say they have NM books only to turn out that they're VF's

 

Brian

[lou_fine]

 

I strongly disagree with you on your inflated percentage estimates. Probably the majority of the high grades owned by the forum members have been graded by CGC. But there are a LOT of long-time collectors out there with substantial collections out there who are not paying any attention to the daily speculative swings in the CGC market. They are long-term collectors and as such, have no need to slab their books. I agree that your percentages would apply to the books held by short-term speculators.

 

I have to disagree here. I know a collector who has a full Marvel run in 9.4 to 10.0. He found the collection in a trunk just a few miles away from where the Mile High collection was discovered. He said every book is flawless with bone White pages, with the exeception of the AF #15, which was the book on top that got damaged by the trunk's lock, but it's still a VF with White pages. All his books are ungraded and would surely be a pedigree unto itself! I think he paid $10,000 for the set back in 1982-1985.

 

Timely

 

Timely;

 

I believe that you are AGREEING with my point of view that there are still lots of high grade SA books out there wainting to be slabbed rather than disagreeing with my point of view.

[lou_fine]

As long as I have collected high grade comics, there have been multiples. From the "big" books of the 80s (TMNT # 1, ASM # 129, Hulk # 181, X-Men # 94, etc.), to the run-up of Silver Age in the late 80s/early 90s, to the big rush on golden age in the early/mid 90s, to the current CGC market. As long as I wanted to be picky, and demand the best, there was a dealer who would be happy to accomodate my requests with multples of Guide for asking prices.

 

Oh, I have no doubt that dealers have been *asking* for over-guide prices for decades. Whether they've been selling at those prices, I question. Sure, there are exceptions, but for the most part, over-guide prices being paid for any but a small handful of key books is a recent phenomenon, IMO.

 

I'm sure we all can recall seeing true HG books on walls in comic shops that were listed at over guide... and seeing them again on our next visit to the same shop...and the next visit...

 

Garth;

 

I have to strongly disagree with you here. GA books with key characters, key artists, classic covers, etc. have always been selling for over guide in high grade long before the introduction of CGC. I remember having to pay over guide for most of my GA books back in the late 80's and early 90's during a supposedly down market period.

 

It should also be noted that DEALERS were offering me multiples of guide for a lot of my GA books back in the mid 90's long before CGC. Whenever I am down in SD, they still come up and offer me multiples of guide for some of my GA books.

 

I do believe that CGC has have an impact on price multiples on the more recent books which nobody would have imagine paying so much for relative to cover price back in the old days. IMHO

[joe_collector]

I remember having to pay over guide for most of my GA books back in the late 80's and early 90's during a supposedly down market period.

 

What planet were you living on then?

 

1988-1993 was the period where prices rose the most (yes, even more than CGC), and marked the transition from "1st issue speculation" to the current "first apprearances/key issues madness" environment we have now.

 

The time to compare would be 1980-86 and 1995-97 or so, if you're talking about "down times" for back issues.

[fantastic_four]

FF, if the tables were turned, you'd be demanding completed/signed insurance claim forms detailing such "undervaluing" by insurers, along with hard data proving that original owners and smaller shops and con dealers are selling too cheaply. Just remember I didn't ask for this data, next time we're having an 'argument'

 

Don't do me this "favor," because it's not one--I take pride in remaining objective and basing my thinking upon research and collecting data. If you're interested in doing research yourself to support your own points, I'll pull data for you--it's all out there to be had and what I haven't written down I'll go back and find again. I can give you the name and address of every comic book shop in my state, and the names of dozens of local convention dealers who NEVER charge multiples. I've been to over 40 shops in Virginia and about a dozen in Maryland, and I VERY rarely see multiples charged...and when they're selling books they haven't pre-priced...pulling out the Overstreet is standard practice. This does not surprise me one bit anymore, because the reason they're not up on the ultra-high-grade market for uncommon books seems painfully obvious--it's because they're uncommon! Local dealers rarely see them. With regards to original owner sales, I got some of my data from Matt Nelson's CBM article, and other bits of it from conversations...but if you're truly interested...I can point you towards the numbers. Some original buyers won't give them out, but others have, and since I might be assisting Matt Nelson with his pedigree book, it might prove to be an interesting analysis to see the known prices paid to owners on pedigrees. I can give you data, and what I don't have I'll collect for you within reason--I can't imagine you've seen data to the contrary and am extremely interested in hearing your alternative experiences.

 

With regards to claims adjusters, your request isn't at all unreasonable there either. My only experience thus far is calling two different ones in my area to ask how they'd value a comic book collection. I got two different answers--one said he would use a price guide, and the other said he would call a dealer. But if he called a dealer in my area, I can almost guarantee you what he'd get--quotes from Overstreet, if not a direct reference for the adjuster to go buy it himself, because they almost all use it. Which makes sense...Overstreet is a great resource for everything except high grade, vintage comics.

 

With regards to insurance, I need to get it from that collectibles insurance company...I seem to recall that they call dealers who you've bought books from to verify you do buy more expensive stuff...however, I'd be able to trust the homeowner's insurance more if Overstreet would value the books more accurately.

[cvttrdr1-migration]

i love the responses to my last post this thread so let me add another. Lets look at FF 1-50. You want a HG collection,we all do. for arguements sake,lets say they all had exactly 5 issues slabbed at 9.2 or better.Would we even be here having this discussion? These are collectibles,a passion. Supply will,to a certain point,increase demand. Sure its nice to own the highest graded issue of any of the 1-50,but if it was totally impossible to complete a HG collection,would you keep trying? Are 148 FF 48's above 9 too many? Looking at the prices,i'd say theres still plenty of demand so the answer is no.Is anyone out there trying to complete a HG run of Strange Tales 1-99? I don't think so,at least not in the terms we discuss HG on this board. In that case,a run of 6.0 would look pretty good.So,slab away,get those HG protected,up the population because its only going to help drive prices higher. Any of the posters here attend conventions in NYC? i'd be pleased to meet people and discuss our mutual passion.

[garthgantu]

FF: Never mind all that... just point me to the smaller shops and con dealers who are selling too cheaply; I want to place an order or two...

 

Seriously: I don't doubt that some high grade key books have been selling for multiples of guide for many years - we know that the Church collection was an early example of this. But in general, I tend to believe that the vast majority of comics, even high grade books and including many keys, have sold for around guide until the past few years. If they sold for somewhat more than guide, maybe that's why the numbers keep going up in the OS Guide.

 

With the exception of a handful of pedigreed collections, the vast majority of books sold in say, 1982 or 1988 or 1992 or 1998 sold for around guide, in most grades. This is a gross generalization, but only intended to support the point that the OS Guide has traditionally been "in the ballpark." Yes, there were surely always people who felt the OS Guide was behind the times, and some of those people put their money where their mouths were and paid over guide in 1988 for NM books from the GA, SA and maybe even some BA. But it this wasn't the prevailing behavior of buyers and sellers, at least to my recollection.

 

I believe this all started with your contention that the OS Guide should have seen the latest 'wave' of over-guide prices coming years ago. I still contend that very few people saw this trend coming...many of those who would claim now to have seen it coming five years ago are simply rewriting history to suit their present circumstances.