OT Poll: At what level will the stock market bottom?

[dekeuk]

 

Since my comment about wanting to buy high grade comics at 1996 prices (like the stock market) seems to have drawn a lot of attention, let's try an OT poll.

 

The S&P 500 index peaked around 1550 in October 2007.

 

Currently it is at 678 (the same level as in 1996)

 

Simple question:

 

At what level will the S&P 500 index "bottom"?

 

 

[Fedoraman]

Don't know about the S&P but I figure the Dow will bottom out at about 5000 personally.

[dekeuk]

Don't know about the S&P but I figure the Dow will bottom out at about 5000 personally.

 

DOW is a useless number. They game that number all the time.

 

It is only 30 companies, so there is not enough diversification. And as soon as one of it's 30 companies gets in trouble, it gets kicked out of the index and replaced by a "stronger" company.

 

I don't know why the talking heads on the nightly news always report the DOW and the Nasdaq numbers. And ignore the only one which really counts, which is the S&P 500 index.

 

 

 

 

[500Club]

Don't know about the S&P but I figure the Dow will bottom out at about 5000 personally.

 

DOW is a useless number. They game that number all the time.

 

It is only 30 companies, so there is not enough diversification. And as soon as one of it's 30 companies gets in trouble, it gets kicked out of the index and replaced by a "stronger" company.

 

I don't know why the talking heads on the nightly news always report the DOW and the Nasdaq numbers. And ignore the only one which really counts, which is the S&P 500 index.

 

 

 

 

DOW is especially handicapped lately, with the automakers and financial laggards.

[SuperBird]

I already started planning for S&P 200

 

http://www.xcolony.com/

[ft88]

They are all just indicies that are useful tools and oversimplification of what a "market" is.

 

Why not the Wilshire 5000 which is even bigger than the SP500? Why not mix in bonds, commodities, and real estate while you are at it.

 

Regardless, the index is just a communication tool and the Dow wins that marketing contest, hands down. It has its weaknesses, I'll grant.

[the blob]

all i know is that i was too heavily weighted toward the S&P 500 in my 401K. uhg. on the bright side, I haven't made a 401K contribution since April 2004.

 

 

[dekeuk]

 

so far the one person that voted for "678 (it's all upwards from here)" is correct

 

3 straight days of rallies

 

happy days are here again ....... so buy a slab from me over in the sales forum

 

[VintageComics]

We'll be back down in no time. How does a country that is broke and so far into debt they will NEVER pay it back manage to crawl out of that hole?

[ft88]

Print enough money and we can have a stock market rally. I won't mean much of anything if the market doubles but inflation goes up 4 fold.

[FlComicFan]

after GM files bankruptcy

[dekeuk]

How does a country that is broke and so far into debt they will NEVER pay it back manage to crawl out of that hole?

 

 

Step 1 - declare the "US dollar" to be a dead currency that has no value

 

Step 2 - declare all US dollar denominated debt to be invalid

 

Step 3 - issue a new currency, maybe something called the "US Peso"

 

Step 4 - start over again from scratch

 

Step 5 - remind foreign debt holders that the US mlitary is bigger than their military

 

 

And just like magic ........ no more debt

 

 

 

 

[thehumantorch]

How does a country that is broke and so far into debt they will NEVER pay it back manage to crawl out of that hole?

 

 

Step 1 - declare the "US dollar" to be a dead currency that has no value

 

Step 2 - declare all US dollar denominated debt to be invalid

 

Step 3 - issue a new currency, maybe something called the "US Peso"

 

Step 4 - start over again from scratch

 

Step 5 - remind foreign debt holders that the US mlitary is bigger than their military

 

 

And just like magic ........ no more debt

 

Good luck buying the resources you need at that point

 

[Dale Roberts]

I think we have seen the bottom, or very near to it. I would suspect we might test it again, maybe more than once.

[Dale Roberts]

We'll be back down in no time. How does a country that is broke and so far into debt they will NEVER pay it back manage to crawl out of that hole?

 

I think we should start taxing the krap out of Canadians.....

[MR.COMICBOOK]

I find that the value of houses will fall much lower then the stockmarket.

The average price of a house in Detroit is $18,000 dollars,not $180,000.

I expect houses values to continue to plummet across America.

we are just at the beginning of the housing bubble bursting.I see houses going back to 1996 prices as well.

[dekeuk]

How does a country that is broke and so far into debt they will NEVER pay it back manage to crawl out of that hole?

 

 

Step 1 - declare the "US dollar" to be a dead currency that has no value

 

Step 2 - declare all US dollar denominated debt to be invalid

 

Step 3 - issue a new currency, maybe something called the "US Peso"

 

Step 4 - start over again from scratch

 

Step 5 - remind foreign debt holders that the US mlitary is bigger than their military

 

 

And just like magic ........ no more debt

 

Good luck buying the resources you need at that point

 

 

The German currency was declared dead and invalid after WWI as I recall, after a bout with hyper inflation in the 1920's

 

The same thing could happen in the USA.

 

Just run the printing presses and print those dollar bills (which they are already doing).

 

Use those freshly printed dollars to pay off all foreign debt (which is denominated in US dollars).

 

When hyper inflation sets in, you get rid of the currency and replace it (just like Germany did). It's been done before ........

 

 

 

 

[delekkerste]

Guys,

 

There's a lot of misinformation out there about "printing money" and the phantom menace of a (hyper)inflation threat. The fact is, money supply is expanding, true, but the velocity of money is crashing and credit is absolutely imploding. Furthermore, the loss in household wealth is much, much greater than the amount of money that is being pumped into the system. Can somebody please explain to me how we are supposed to get inflation anytime soon under these conditions?

 

Here's Merrill Lynch's take:

 

How we get any sustained inflation is totally beyond us

 

In addition to credit contraction, asset deflation, profit compression and employment destruction, we are also in a vicious inventory reduction phase in the manufacturing sector. If our forecast is correct, this would then suggest that the capacity utilization rate in manufacturing will make a new all-time low of 66.6% from 68% in January. The employment data also tell us that there is a very high probability that wages and salaries deflated -0.3% in February as well. How we end up getting any sustained inflation pressure, or backup in bond yields for that matter, as the economy moves further and further away from any semblance of “full employment” in either the labor or product market, is totally beyond us.

 

Putting the reflation-deflation debate into perspective

 

Yes, the Fed’s balance sheet and the balance sheet of the federal government are expanding at record rates. But these reflationary efforts should be seen as a partial antidote, not a panacea, to the deflationary effects brought on from the unprecedented contraction in the largest balance sheet on the planet: The $55 trillion US household balance sheet. Based on what house prices and equity valuation have been doing this quarter, we are likely in for a total loss of household net worth approximating $7 trillion this quarter alone, which would bring the cumulative decline in consumer wealth to $20 trillion. This wealth loss exceeds the combined expansion of the Fed’s and government balance sheet by a factor of ten. That should put the reflation-deflation debate into perspective.

[VintageComics]

 

Gene from what I see the US is trying to turn the big ship with a rudder. Once they get it pointed in the direction they want it to go, will they THEN have to worry about over compensating (ie. Inflation)?

 

R.

 

 

[SammyAdams-migration]

I already started planning for S&P 200

 

http://www.xcolony.com/

 

smart lad.