Is the Overstreet outdated when it comes to pricing???

[RockMyAmadeus]

I'm not trying to disprove your documentation on books that have sold below guide. However, as a counterpoint I'd like to see some data on books that do sell on ebay for guide or above guide.

 

It doesn't exist. If it does, by all means, please post some examples.

 

Honestly, when I researched the GA Batman prices, there wasn't a single raw book that sold for more than OPG in the stated grade. And, as noted, even CGC copies sold for substantially less than guide.

 

The books that sell for Guide or more, I can name:

 

High grade (8.0+ for 1930-1961, 9.0+ 1961-1975) anything up until 1975.

 

Mid to high grade non-superhero books from 1959-1962 (ESPECIALLY OOAW, GI Combat, SSWS Dinosaur & Mlle Marie, Kirby Westerns.)

 

Many DC and Marvel/Atlas superhero from 1950-1954.

 

Super keys in any grade: FF #1, Showcase #4, AF #15, X-Men #1, the GA Usual, etc.

 

But these books constitute a tiny fraction of comic books that exist and are for sale at any given time.

 

[the blob]

Show us a recent auction that ended with any golden age Batman at less than half guide!

 

 

Done.

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/BATMAN-6-GD-2-0-GUIDE-446-00-no-reserve-white-pages_W0QQitemZ390034540295QQihZ026QQcategoryZ35751QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

45% of Guide.

 

That wasn't even difficult.

 

 

Your other examples may help prove your point (I haven't checked and I don't plan to check), but I did happen to check out this book and i see that it is described in the listing as missing the centerfold, and so this isn't really a "GD-2" IMHO. Wouldn't CGC grade this as incomplete, or a qualified 2.0 (I'm asking as I really don't know)? If good is $446, then I'm not sure what that means an incomplete good copy would be, say 25% of Guide? If so, then this book sold for more than 100% of guide... Also, if one just marries a centerfold from another copy to this book like the eBay seller suggests, then the buyer would first have to find such centerfold (at an additional cost), and then it would still only be a restored (with married centerfold) good copy, and would still have cost a lot more than it's worth in guide (for a restored good copy), IMHO...

 

As far as I can tell (or I am concerned) that beat to krap Batman 6 sold for over guide. It is somewhere between a poor and a fair and should guide at like what, $150? This actually isn't unusual for these beaters. I've sold a numer of these sorts of sub-"Good" books and have come close to or better than guide most of the time. Granted, those were under $50 copies of GA books, so I can see the budget conscious collector going for them.

[the blob]

"Do you need more examples? Here are some more:

 

http://Support-the-Collectors-Society.com/1942-Batman-Comic-Book-Issue-11-Very-Good_W0QQitemZ370164147328QQihZ024QQcategoryZ35751QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Batman #11, SUPER KEY, graded VG, OPG is $1486, sold for $861. 57% of guide, for a super key early Batman book."

 

A decent looking book, but VG might still be pushing it. I see a book like that and I bid like it's a Good/Good+ and hope it's a G/VG.

 

 

"http://Support-the-Collectors-Society.com/Batman-43-Oct-Nov-1947-G-2-5-3-0_W0QQitemZ170306412349QQihZ007QQcategoryZ35751QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Batman #43, graded G+ or G/VG, OPG is $181.50 or $151.25, sold for $77. $77 is 42% of G/VG, and 51% of G+."

 

Rusty staples, messed up book...barely a "Good", more like a Fair+.

 

http://Support-the-Collectors-Society.com/BATMAN-40-1947-JOKER-COVER-DC_W0QQitemZ120384568408QQihZ002QQcategoryZ35751QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Batman #40, graded G/VG, OPG = $250, sold for $125. That's 50% OPG, AND it was a Best Offer. Had it been in an open auction, it probably would have sold for less."

 

Not a G/VG either. MISSING CENTERFOLD. Sold for over guide as far as I am concerned.

 

"http://Support-the-Collectors-Society.com/Batman-no-6-Dec-1944_W0QQitemZ130288733617QQihZ003QQcategoryZ68QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Batman #26, graded 4.0-4.5. OPG = $310, or $348, depending on that grade. Sold for $152.50, or 49% in 4.0 and 44% in 4.5."

 

 

Not a VG..this one has the big chunk out of the top corner, right?

 

(Please forgive me if I confused the 40 and 26, I'm doing it from memory)

_______________________________________________________

 

These raw examples seem to show 75% or better of OPG as far as I'm concerned and to me that seems like a lot for these books!

[the blob]

Let's toss in some mid-grade slabs, just for kicks:

 

http://Support-the-Collectors-Society.com/Batman-6-8-9-1941-CGC-6-0-FINE_W0QQitemZ120382516967QQihZ002QQcategoryZ68QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Bats #6, CGC Universal 6.0, sold for $992, OPG = $1338. A whopping nearly 26% discount off of what OPG says it's "worth", and that's removing all the factors we talked about earlier.

 

http://Support-the-Collectors-Society.com/Batman-7-10-11-1941-CGC-6-0-FINE_W0QQitemZ120382515541QQihZ002QQcategoryZ68QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Bats #7, CGC Uni 6.0, sold for $934, OPG = $1338. Over 30% off what OPG says it's worth.

______________________________________________

 

If both of these CGC "fines" did not have huge ugly scribbling/writing all over the front cover I'd be going along with you. Clearly these sold for more of a discount from OPG because they were ridiculously overgraded by CGC. Since when can a Fine have that kind of massive writing on the cover? People buying slabs do sometimes look at what they're buying and do realize that other people will look too. Not every 6.0 is created equally.

 

And a 25% discount off OPG doesn't seem like all that much to me anyway given the risks of mail order purchases, etc. Most shops are going to give a customer some wiggle room on books like these as well, as would most con sellers. Ebay SHOULD be cheaper than full retail!

[the blob]

Here's another, in case anyone thinks 1,000,000 comix' example is a tad overgraded:

 

http://Support-the-Collectors-Society.com/1944-BATMAN-21-1st-Skinny-Alfred-VG-No-Restoration_W0QQitemZ230329220220QQihZ013QQcategoryZ35751QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Guide is $310.

 

_____________________

 

Yeah, that one is probably a VG, Low feedback seller probably didn't help the results. Hey, sometimes you get a good deal on ebay, otherwise what's the point!?

[the blob]

I guess my point is that you overstate and overgeneralize what sort of discount vs. OPG exists in "the market" if you are looking for a particular book at a particular time. The market isn't the lowest example you can find of something, it's mushing it all together. I'm not saying it isn't there, OPG is "full retail" and just like most things out there, you are rarely going to have to pay full retail if you don't want to, are patient, etc. But sometimes you will have to or pay more (the hot concert ticket, a Prius when they were hot, etc.).

 

 

SO when I try to figure out a price/value of something, I look at OPG to give me a frame of reference and then I look at ebay results, but I don't take those at face value. I try to find the truly representative auctions/sales where the item really looks like what's advertised (proper grading) and factor out things like a lower or poor feedback seller that might seem suscious.

[Rob]

I don't take the OPG as absolute gospel of pricing, exact to the dollar. When using it as a reference for buying, I assume a huge margin of error. But it serves well as a relative guide (when to pay $200 for a comic vs. $50). I don't think they can do any better than that. Unless you have a live database, like GPA, you can't track a rolling average of actual sales prices. But I absolutely love it as a reference book about (almost) every comic ever published, as well as a price guide I consider 50%-75% accurate. Take it to the bathroom with me every time I go. If I'm investing a decent amount in a comic, I'll reference GPA on my iPhone (love that new feature!).

[RockMyAmadeus]

"Do you need more examples? Here are some more:

 

http://Support-the-Collectors-Society.com/1942-Batman-Comic-Book-Issue-11-Very-Good_W0QQitemZ370164147328QQihZ024QQcategoryZ35751QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Batman #11, SUPER KEY, graded VG, OPG is $1486, sold for $861. 57% of guide, for a super key early Batman book."

 

A decent looking book, but VG might still be pushing it. I see a book like that and I bid like it's a Good/Good+ and hope it's a G/VG.

 

 

"http://Support-the-Collectors-Society.com/Batman-43-Oct-Nov-1947-G-2-5-3-0_W0QQitemZ170306412349QQihZ007QQcategoryZ35751QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Batman #43, graded G+ or G/VG, OPG is $181.50 or $151.25, sold for $77. $77 is 42% of G/VG, and 51% of G+."

 

Rusty staples, messed up book...barely a "Good", more like a Fair+.

 

http://Support-the-Collectors-Society.com/BATMAN-40-1947-JOKER-COVER-DC_W0QQitemZ120384568408QQihZ002QQcategoryZ35751QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Batman #40, graded G/VG, OPG = $250, sold for $125. That's 50% OPG, AND it was a Best Offer. Had it been in an open auction, it probably would have sold for less."

 

Not a G/VG either. MISSING CENTERFOLD. Sold for over guide as far as I am concerned.

 

"http://Support-the-Collectors-Society.com/Batman-no-6-Dec-1944_W0QQitemZ130288733617QQihZ003QQcategoryZ68QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Batman #26, graded 4.0-4.5. OPG = $310, or $348, depending on that grade. Sold for $152.50, or 49% in 4.0 and 44% in 4.5."

 

 

Not a VG..this one has the big chunk out of the top corner, right?

 

(Please forgive me if I confused the 40 and 26, I'm doing it from memory)

_______________________________________________________

 

These raw examples seem to show 75% or better of OPG as far as I'm concerned and to me that seems like a lot for these books!

 

You cannot sit there and dissect the individual examples in a situation like this. To YOU, they may not be in the grades stated, but so what? To others, they may be UNDERgraded. The point is very clear, here: IN THE GRADES GIVEN BY THE SELLERS, the books are selling for substantially less than OPG.

 

That's what I said to Mr. Forsythe: what may be "Fair" to you may be perfectly acceptable as "Good" to the people who are actually bidding on that item. We'll never, EVER know that, so you must, must, must go off of what the SELLER grades it at, because that's all you have to go by.

 

Otherwise, for every single example I give, you can just say "well, that's OBVIOUSLY overgraded", and the point is lost. *I* can argue that, in fact, every book sells for OVER OPG...if I just state that every single book on eBay is overgraded two full grades.

 

That is not the point (and it's certainly not even true.) Remember, we don't have any idea how many books are returned or discounted AFTER the fact....though I'm pretty sure we can all agree that the instances where someone has offered MORE for an item because it was in better condition than the seller stated can be counted on one hand. All we can go off of is the information we actually know.

 

Are there going to be books that are OVERgraded, (according to CGC)? Of course. And the bidders may have taken that into account. Are there books that are going to be UNDERgraded? Yes, that's true, too.

 

When you average it out, the picture it paints is this: OPG prices, nearly across the board, are much, much higher than what the total aggregate of "the market" supports.

 

The CGC examples are what PROVE that, even without restoration, even with what most would accept as accurate grading, prices are STILL substantially less than OPG.

 

And, as more and more books get slabbed, this trend will continue.

 

And then all the arguments about "OPG is accurate" will TRULY fail, unless OPG fixes itself.

[kidcolt]

It is hard for a guide that is published once a year to be accurate. There is a lot of things that can influence and change the BV on a comic over a 12 month period. Like most here I use OS as reading material and as a ref guide.

[RockMyAmadeus]

If both of these CGC "fines" did not have huge ugly scribbling/writing all over the front cover I'd be going along with you. Clearly these sold for more of a discount from OPG because they were ridiculously overgraded by CGC.

 

You can make that assumption, but you have absolutely no evidence to support it. You do not know what was going through the minds of the bidders when they were bidding.

 

You can surmise...but without knowing why the bidders bid what they bid, it would only be an assumption.

 

And what about all the other CGC books that sell for a discount off of OPG....?

 

Like this one:

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/Justice-League-of-America-37-CGC-9-2-Near-Mint_W0QQitemZ290301577074QQihZ019QQcategoryZ32737QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

JLA #37, 9.2 Uni, OPG = $200, sold for $150 w/S&H.

 

Or this one:

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/Amazing-Spider-man-65-CGC-7-0-Foggy-Nelson-Appearance_W0QQitemZ260374978848QQihZ016QQcategoryZ74QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Spiderman #65, OPG = $45, sold for $26.99 w/S&H...40% off OPG.

 

If CGC graded books...with all the concerns about resto and overgrading (essentially) removed...don't sell for OPG...what chance do raw books have?

 

Since when can a Fine have that kind of massive writing on the cover? People buying slabs do sometimes look at what they're buying and do realize that other people will look too. Not every 6.0 is created equally.

 

Sorry, but you cannot discredit these examples simply because they have a defect you do not like. The fact is, they were graded at a specific grade by the accepted grading company who SAW THOSE FLAWS, and STILL graded them a specific grade.

 

Understand that *I* am not disagreeing with your personal assessment about the eye appeal of these specific books....I'm simply stating that you cannot discredit these books based on personal taste, and you MUST acknowledge that, especially with CGC graded books, there will be people who do not see those flaws as you do.

 

If you tried hard enough, you could come up with a reason to discredit every single example out there. What would that prove? For every example you discredit, I can come up with anyone one that illustrates my point.

 

25% discount off OPG doesn't seem like all that much to me anyway given the risks of mail order purchases, etc. Most shops are going to give a customer some wiggle room on books like these as well, as would most con sellers. Ebay SHOULD be cheaper than full retail!

 

With all due respect, none of this is relevant. We're not discussing what shops, stores, and eBay SHOULD do or be. The discussion is simply: are OPG prices too high?

 

At 25% and 30%, which are substantially lower prices, that answer is clearly yes. If it were 10% or 5%, ok, fine, you've got some "auction style" wiggle room. But at 25%, 30%, etc...at some point, you're going to have to say "ok, yeah, OPG prices are too high, with a few exceptions."

[RockMyAmadeus]

I guess my point is that you overstate and overgeneralize what sort of discount vs. OPG exists in "the market" if you are looking for a particular book at a particular time. The market isn't the lowest example you can find of something, it's mushing it all together.

 

Of course it is, which is what I've been saying all along.

 

My point is simple: with some exceptions (already stated), the OPG across the board is too high on their prices, and have been since the early 1990's.

 

If it was 50/50...half the books too high, half the books too low....I'd say "yes, OPG averages out."

 

It isn't.

 

It isn't even CLOSE.

 

That's all I'm saying.

 

I'm not saying it isn't there, OPG is "full retail" and just like most things out there, you are rarely going to have to pay full retail if you don't want to, are patient, etc. But sometimes you will have to or pay more (the hot concert ticket, a Prius when they were hot, etc.).

 

You raise a valid point: IS OPG "full retail"?

 

In coins, there are SEVERAL different price guides, published by the same people, that show retail price, wholesale price, what you could expect to get from a dealer, etc.

 

OPG doesn't claim any of that. They just claim to be a "guide" based on "market information." Nowhere does the current OPG state that they are a "retail" price guide. In fact, on page #70 of the current (#38) OPG, they state the following:

 

"Our book is a...list of comic books and their market values."

 

But, as noted before, the OPG totally ignores the largest chunk of that market...namely eBay, and other online auction sites....then it's not really "market" values, is it?

 

OPG goes on to state (page #73) that "(the) values listed in this book are approximations or guidelines, presenting an average range of what one might expect to pay for the corresponding items."

 

Really...?

 

An AVERAGE range?

 

Does anyone reading this think that the OPG prices represent an AVERAGE of ANY kind?

 

Who are the people out there selling FF #63 for 3.5 times OPG to "average" out the 30% the book gets on eBay?

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/FANTASTIC-FOUR-63-June-1967-12-cover-VERY-GOOD_W0QQitemZ220371451675QQihZ012QQcategoryZ32731QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

FF #63, sold for $5 w/S&H, Guide is $14-$18

 

SO when I try to figure out a price/value of something, I look at OPG to give me a frame of reference and then I look at ebay results, but I don't take those at face value. I try to find the truly representative auctions/sales where the item really looks like what's advertised (proper grading) and factor out things like a lower or poor feedback seller that might seem suscious.

 

As should everyone.

 

But, just as there are lots of people out there buying PGX books, and buying restored and overgraded books without knowing any better, there are a lot of people who are duped into believing that OPG prices are valid and accurate.

 

Don't we care about them, too....?

 

(regardless, this is a great discussion, so thank you for responding!)

[RockMyAmadeus]

And because I feel it needs to be stated again, I love the OPG, and have bought a copy when it comes out nearly every year since 1990. It is INVALUABLE as a resource, and I would not know 10% of what I know about comics without it.

 

That doesn't make it impervious to criticism of its most basic function.

[NewWorldOrder]

OSPG from 1984-current is clueless....

 

Still a good tool for the industry and a fun read ever year. (thumbs u

[RockMyAmadeus]

OSPG from 1984-current is clueless....

 

Still a good tool for the industry and a fun read ever year. (thumbs u

 

I'm glad SOMEBODY finally agrees with me....

[NewWorldOrder]

As far as books selling below grade well usually books for the most part 6.0 and under you have to discount the books like 50% to sell them.

 

They are called low-grade for a reason.

[the blob]

And what about all the other CGC books that sell for a discount off of OPG....?

 

Like this one:

 

http://Support-the-Collectors-Society.com/Justice-League-of-America-37-CGC-9-2-Near-Mint_W0QQitemZ290301577074QQihZ019QQcategoryZ32737QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

JLA #37, 9.2 Uni, OPG = $200, sold for $150 w/S&H.

 

Or this one:

 

http://Support-the-Collectors-Society.com/Amazing-Spider-man-65-CGC-7-0-Foggy-Nelson-Appearance_W0QQitemZ260374978848QQihZ016QQcategoryZ74QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Spiderman #65, OPG = $45, sold for $26.99 w/S&H...40% off OPG.

 

___________________

 

I thought you were talking about GA books (I know that's not what the thread was about, but that's what you were talking about). Both those books have cream to OW pages, which knocked them down as SA books. I'm surprised JLA 37 even got 75% of OPG with c/Ow...that's one of the worst covers ever.

 

I guess we have a different perspective. I almost only buy things on sale, etc (unless it can't be avoided...like food staples, gas, etc.)...so 25% off just seems like the regular world of not paying full retail to me. it's something i'll regularly give except maybe for a cherished or really hot item. has nothing to do with OPG. OPG is full retail. no reason to pay it except for the hard to find or hot item. while that JLA 9.2 might be hard to find, the 7.0 spidey ain't (and who would bother with a slab for that one anyway?)

 

OPG is "high" because of this. Most everyone wants at least 10-25% off the asking price of the non-rare/HTF/hot item. So if OPG cut all prices by 25%, people would just want 25% off those reduced prices. it has little to do with demand, it's the psychology of wanting a "deal". if OPG raised prices by 25% overnight things would simply be getting discounted by 25%% +/- from that bumped up basis. of course, i'm talking about stuff that people actually have an interest in. making assorted 90's drek $20 in OPG isn't going to do much.

[the blob]

Who are the people out there selling FF #63 for 3.5 times OPG to "average" out the 30% the book gets on eBay?

 

http://Support-the-Collectors-Society.com/FANTASTIC-FOUR-63-June-1967-12-cover-VERY-GOOD_W0QQitemZ220371451675QQihZ012QQcategoryZ32731QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

FF #63, sold for $5 w/S&H, Guide is $14-$18

___________________________

 

That's a bizarre result. No way that should sell for 99 cents. I don't think 99 cents is the market for that book. It would sell here for $5-$10 if you had enough other stuff up for people to combine on shipping. I don't bid on 99 cent auctions like that because i don't want to get hit with a $4 s/h charge on a 99 cent win and I think the seller shot himself in the foot going that route. I sold a ton of FFs like that on ebay in the $8-$10 range with $3 shipping. Sure, not guide, but a fair price for some mail order ebay seller to get. Stick that FF 63 in my LCS's bin for $7-10 and it sells in a couple of days (it looked like a decent copy from the scan, maybe possibly undergraded).

[the blob]

of course, there are always inefficiencies in the market. october has made a living (and amassed a sweet collection) finding deals on ebay and flipping them for a tidy profit. donut is putting his kids through private school bin diving and turning 50 cent purchases into $5-$10 sales. are the prices they paid "market" or are they what they sold them for? i tend to toss out stuff on the lowest and high end of the sales in my calculations..figuring low is dumb luck and high end is either shilling or an insane/stupid buyer (at least for common stuff.. i would never suggest that spending $1K on Strawberry Shortcake #1 in 9.8 is dumb or insane, that is clearly a rare piece of comic treasure history... :-)