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Is the Overstreet outdated when it comes to pricing???

Started by Flemmings,

98 posts in this topic

RockMyAmadeus

RockMyAmadeus

Posted
Posted
However, it is obviously unrivaled in terms of information it contains, if you know how to use it correctly.

 

 

 

Umm, exactly how do you use it correctly? If this is top secret, feel free to PM me. :gossip:

 

Simple. Take all OPG prices, cut them in half, and you will have "the high price" of what you will generally have to pay to win raw books on eBay (with some exceptions.)

 

If you bid OPG on everything, you'll win just about everything you bid on, but luckily, the high bid will generally be between 30-50% of Guide.

 

What OPG does, then, is give a baseline to work off of to know how much I'll have to pay if I want a specific book (say, Showcase #35 in VG/F.) It's incredibly useful in this regard. Keeps people from pecking, too.

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kimik

kimik

Posted
Posted

OSPG is 100% accurate on pre-1980 keys/classic/covers/high demand issues, etc. I am happy to offer local sellers close to full guide for most GA or SA Marvel and DC keys. :devil:

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the blob

the blob

Posted
Posted

When I can buy a solid VG copy of Bats #24 for 1/3 OPG in that grade....

 

I want to buy where you do....

 

****

eBay, approximately 4 years ago. I can look it up in my Paypal account, if necessary. Paid about $110, guide in VG was $300+ something.

 

These are, of course, the low end of the auction prices, because I'm a bottom feeder, but they are entirely possible with patience. In my experience, the majority of raw books sell for 30-50% of OPG in grades VF and lower (NM for 1975-up.)

*******************************************************************************************

 

OPG may very well be inaccurate, but you getting lucky in an auction doesn't really prove all that much. In 2002-2003 I bid agressively on GA (1940's) slabs, mostly superhero stuff. I would never pay more than 50% of OPG including shipping. I lost 95%+++ of the auctions, but, of course, came away with a lot of wins because I was tossing out so many bids. Luckily, at the time, I had plenty of money in the bank.

 

I then sold most of them in 2006-2007. By and large I got 75-100% of OPG for them, sometimes a little more. I did not start them at 99 cents. I held out for a good price in the auction and store setting and eventually got them. Some stuff sold right away, some took a little longer, but I had pretty much done the selling in under 2 months (needed money for home renovations).

 

So what was the FMV? What I paid in 2002-2003 or what I sold for in 2006-2007? Somewhere in between? What should OPG be?

 

I think there are less roll the dice auctions nowadays on ebay and less material to shoot for in the auction setting because more and more sellers are tired of getting burned hoping the right people see their stuff in the 7 day setting. I, for one, will not run 99 cent auctions on decent stuff. If I feel like the book should be a $15 (and maybe guides for $20-$25) but can live with $9.99, I start at $9.99 and I think many others are doing the same thing. There are simply fewer scraps of cheap auctions to pick over nowadays.

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RockMyAmadeus

RockMyAmadeus

Posted
Posted
When I can buy a solid VG copy of Bats #24 for 1/3 OPG in that grade....

 

I want to buy where you do....

 

****

eBay, approximately 4 years ago. I can look it up in my Paypal account, if necessary. Paid about $110, guide in VG was $300+ something.

 

These are, of course, the low end of the auction prices, because I'm a bottom feeder, but they are entirely possible with patience. In my experience, the majority of raw books sell for 30-50% of OPG in grades VF and lower (NM for 1975-up.)

*******************************************************************************************

 

OPG may very well be inaccurate, but you getting lucky in an auction doesn't really prove all that much.

 

You are correct. Me getting lucky in ONE auction doesn't really prove all that much.

 

Me "getting lucky" in thousands and thousands and thousands of auctions....(and yes, I can document that)....proves quite a lot.

 

Even the auctions I didn't win, wherein my bid was 25% of OPG (it's ALWAYS 25-35% of OPG, for 99.9937% of everything I've bought) and the winning bidder was an increment above mine...they got the item for 27% of OPG.

 

In 2002-2003 I bid agressively on GA (1940's) slabs...

 

 

Slabs?

 

Who's talking about slabs?

 

The conversation is about raw books, not slabs.

 

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RockMyAmadeus

RockMyAmadeus

Posted
Posted
OSPG is 100% accurate on pre-1980 keys/classic/covers/high demand issues, etc. I am happy to offer local sellers close to full guide for most GA or SA Marvel and DC keys. :devil:

 

I love to tell folks who think OPG is accurate, or even underpriced, "hey...I've got several thousand books that I'd love to sell you at current OPG. Interested?"

 

That usually stops the conversation right in its tracks...because they know, just like everyone else, that OPG for raw books is far and away too high.

 

Now, Rawhide Kid #17-30, or SSWS #84-100ish...or OOAW #81-110ish....these are the exceptions that prove the rule. ;)

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the blob

the blob

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well, most of the slabs I'm talking about were like VG or worse, some a little better, so it's not like they were getting much of a premium, if any.

 

Problem with looking at raw books beyond a certain price theshhold ($75?) are restoration issues. Of course raw should sell at a big discount on ebay if there's a restoration concern. you can't hold the book, examine it, etc., which will help determine seals, pieces added, some color touch, maybe some trimming, etc. And you say your batman 24 is a VG...who else said so? while CGC probably comes back VG as well, maybe it comes back VG with a CT or something else or G/VG, in which case $110 becomes less of a good deal. so, in my mind, it's hard to say things cost 50% of OPG on ebay if you're not sure you're getting the right grade, full disclosure of restoration, etc. the sellers who have buyers who are very confident in their books (zillaf, etc.) do a lot better than that. not to mention, shipping costs totally warp the pricing on less expensive books. i sell plenty of $5 books and charge $5 PM shiping. Buyers rarely combine to save. Are those $5 books or $10 books?

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the blob

the blob

Posted
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love to tell folks who think OPG is accurate, or even underpriced, "hey...I've got several thousand books that I'd love to sell you at current OPG. Interested?"

 

That usually stops the conversation right in its tracks...because they know, just like everyone else, that OPG for raw books is far and away too high.

*************

 

even if it was accurate in the retail setting (and i'm not saying that it is), who on earth would pay full retail for anything in bulk? what's the point?

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str8rcn

str8rcn

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The old saying "it's only worth what someone is willing to give you for it" still holds very true.

 

By combining OSPG,GPA,Ebay Results,Comics Price Guide.com,and even Wizard I can usually get a good idea of the "value".

 

I will say comicspriceguide.com is a good format for OSPG to look into for an online guide.It could be updated quicker and even expanding could provide scans of different grades as reference.There is so much that could be done with an online guide.

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RockMyAmadeus

RockMyAmadeus

Posted
Posted
love to tell folks who think OPG is accurate, or even underpriced, "hey...I've got several thousand books that I'd love to sell you at current OPG. Interested?"

 

That usually stops the conversation right in its tracks...because they know, just like everyone else, that OPG for raw books is far and away too high.

*************

 

even if it was accurate in the retail setting (and i'm not saying that it is), who on earth would pay full retail for anything in bulk? what's the point?

 

Because it's not a "bulk" argument. There are several thousand to pick from. That's all.

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RockMyAmadeus

RockMyAmadeus

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well, most of the slabs I'm talking about were like VG or worse, some a little better, so it's not like they were getting much of a premium, if any.

 

It's still slabs vs. raw. You said I only had one example, and this a rule does not prove. I said it was but ONE example, and that I have literally thousands (which I do.)

 

Problem with looking at raw books beyond a certain price theshhold ($75?) are restoration issues. Of course raw should sell at a big discount on ebay if there's a restoration concern. you can't hold the book, examine it, etc., which will help determine seals, pieces added, some color touch, maybe some trimming, etc. And you say your batman 24 is a VG...who else said so? while CGC probably comes back VG as well, maybe it comes back VG with a CT or something else or G/VG, in which case $110 becomes less of a good deal. so, in my mind, it's hard to say things cost 50% of OPG on ebay if you're not sure you're getting the right grade, full disclosure of restoration, etc. the sellers who have buyers who are very confident in their books (zillaf, etc.) do a lot better than that. not to mention, shipping costs totally warp the pricing on less expensive books. i sell plenty of $5 books and charge $5 PM shiping. Buyers rarely combine to save. Are those $5 books or $10 books?

 

I really don't think there necessarily are restoration issues beyond a certain threshhold, and certainly not $75. There are plenty of sellers, even sellers on this very board, who know how to detect restoration and are capable of disclosing that in their eBay auctions of raw books.

 

The real issue holding back prices on eBay is OVERgrading, which has been the problem for decades in the industry in general.

 

As far as my Bats #24 being VG: *I* say so, and that's all that matters to each individual. It also doesn't have color touch or any other restoration that I am currently capable of detecting, which is quite a bit. Your "it could come back G/VG from CGC" is meaningless to me, because I'm the buyer, and my satisfaction is all that matters. It COULD come back a VG/F, but so what? If I'm satisfied that it's a VG, that's the point.

 

When it's time to SELL, then my argument fails, but until and if that happens, it doesn't matter if anyone else agrees with me in theory. In practice, I've educated the HELL out of myself with regards to restoration detection, which everyone buying GA and SA should be doing, as well as having an excellent understanding of how the market, including CGC, grades.

 

You will get no argument from me about the "discount it a grade" mentality that many, many bidders apply to raw books, but again, that's just one factor.

 

See, all the issues you raise are all factors that contribute to the final result, but they aren't ALL the factors. What about undergrading? What about no restoration? What about excellent sellers who have excellent reputations and feedback? What about plain ol' supply and demand...?

 

You have to factor everything into the equation, and once you do that, you come up with a general rule: raw books sell for about 30-50% of OPG, in the stated grade, with (as in everything) a few exceptions.

 

All of these factors are also why CGC books have, for 9+ years now, sold for OPG or more, in all grades, which was really the point. However...even THAT is not holding true now that more and more books have been slabbed. High grade, sure. Rare, sure. Common, run of the mill books?

 

Well....I bought a Lois Lane #70 in CGC 4.5, with OW pages (typical of the era), for $35 shipped late last year. OPG? $54. So, I got a key silver age book, in mid grade, for 64% of OPG, and all of the factors you mentioned don't apply.

 

Maybe, then, it's not everything else. Maybe the OPG is just wrong.

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RockMyAmadeus

RockMyAmadeus

Posted
Posted
Show us a recent auction that ended with any golden age Batman at less than half guide!

 

 

Done.

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/BATMAN-6-GD-2-0-GUIDE-446-00-no-reserve-white-pages_W0QQitemZ390034540295QQihZ026QQcategoryZ35751QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

45% of Guide.

 

That wasn't even difficult.

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RockMyAmadeus

RockMyAmadeus

Posted
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Here's another, in case anyone thinks 1,000,000 comix' example is a tad overgraded:

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/1944-BATMAN-21-1st-Skinny-Alfred-VG-No-Restoration_W0QQitemZ230329220220QQihZ013QQcategoryZ35751QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Guide is $310.

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/BATMAN-46-COMIC-BOOK-APRIL-MAY-1947-99-CENT-NO-RSRV_W0QQitemZ130288293066QQihZ003QQcategoryZ35751QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Guide is $129

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kimik

kimik

Posted
Posted
OSPG is 100% accurate on pre-1980 keys/classic/covers/high demand issues, etc. I am happy to offer local sellers close to full guide for most GA or SA Marvel and DC keys. :devil:

 

I love to tell folks who think OPG is accurate, or even underpriced, "hey...I've got several thousand books that I'd love to sell you at current OPG. Interested?"

 

That usually stops the conversation right in its tracks...because they know, just like everyone else, that OPG for raw books is far and away too high.

 

Now, Rawhide Kid #17-30, or SSWS #84-100ish...or OOAW #81-110ish....these are the exceptions that prove the rule. ;)

 

Tell them it is overpriced for GA/SA keys then swoop in for the kill. Sounds like a great plan to me, not that I would ever do it :whistle:

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