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Are we headed twoards a split market?

Started by currincomics,

45 posts in this topic

fantastic_four

fantastic_four

Posted
Posted
But, I bet there are a lot of collectors who stay clear of slabbing their books and/or buying slabbed books entirely.

 

I'd say 99.5% of collectors are like this.

 

 

So will we wind up with collectors that only buy exclusively high-grade slabbed books for multiples of guide, and others who only buy raw at guide or less?.... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

I believe we've been there for decades if you remove the word "slabbed" from that sentence. Same types of people who paid big bucks for raw high grade are doing it now for slabbed but with high dollar totals partially (mostly) due to increased confidence of not getting ripped off with overgrading or restoration. I don't include Modern or non-key Bronze buyers in that group, they're a different breed due to the higher supply on those books.

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dam60

dam60

Posted
Posted
That's a good question, and I'm sure we'll have a lively debate on this one. I know for me personally, I have all raw books, and am not even thinking about slabbing any of them right now, in case I actually wanted to read them (some of them very carefully, of course). Also, why would I lay out that money right now to have them slabbed and just sit in my closet anyway? I'm looking forward to the responses on this, as we're on the CGC boards. So, most people on here are slabbers. But, I bet there are a lot of collectors who stay clear of slabbing their books and/or buying slabbed books entirely.

So will we wind up with collectors that only buy exclusively high-grade slabbed books for multiples of guide, and others who only buy raw at guide or less?.... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

Thanks to currin for starting this thread! I agree that we will have a nice lively debate!

 

"Also, why would I lay out that money right now to have them slabbed and just sit in my closet anyway?"

 

Maybe because I am a bit competitive, but I would get books slabbed that I have no intention of selling if they were true NM and better (for my more valuable books of course) just to know what they have. The registry is a great idea and I wish that they would put up a Batman registry so that I can partake in it confused.gif but I for one would love to be able to compare my collection to others on an even footing.

 

So will we wind up with collectors that only buy exclusively high-grade slabbed books for multiples of guide, and others who only buy raw at guide or less?.... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

I think that even raw buyers would be attracted to cgc books just for one thing: the resto check no one says you have to keep your books slabbed . . .

 

DAM

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AllTop8Me

AllTop8Me

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Yes, we do have two markets now. The slabbed market is for people for whom investment considerations play a significant role when buying a book. Not surprisingly, CGC was devised and promoted by dealers such as Metropolis, whose motive in bringing honesty to the market was to increase sales and thus profits. CGC removes ambiguity from the market and, like a reliable securities and exchange commission, increases the value of the objects it polices because investor confidence is something people will pay for.

 

Fair enough, you may say, but if what the purchaser really wants is a book to own and cherish and, yes, to invest in too, and CGC only faciliates truth in disclosure when a purchase is made, why aren't slabs broken open as a matter of course by buyers who have no immediate intent to sell? After all, MOST Golden Age buyers are comic book hobbyists, not dealers, and, given their druthers, would prefer to hold vintage books, not plastic capsules, in their hands. Once their sure they've bought the real McCoy, why keep it locked away? The answer is that because these buyers are the buyers who, as noted above, are most accutely aware of the investment aspect of their purchases, they are the least inclined to pay $50 or more (i.e. the eventual cost of resubmitting) for the pleasure of holding their books raw. Also, as explained on other threads, as savvy collectors continue to buy up undergraded books and submit them for regrading, CGC grades will increasingly reflect the most generous grade that a book that a book could obtain. In such a world, collectors are increasingly reluctant to break open slabs because to do so would entail not only CGC fees if and when they sell, but the real possibility of a downgrade.

 

It would be interesting to see though whether, in addition to high grade CGC books commanding a certain percentage advantage over raw books, the slabbed and unslabbed markets diverge in other ways. Will the contents of a book become less essential to its value relative to its cover when the book is slabbed and thus unreadable? I've already noticed that buyers of CGC books pay little attention to page quality, and would rather have, say, a 9.2 with Cream pages than a 9.0 with one more little stress mark on the spine but White pages. That attitude makes sense if you never expect to actually open the book, whereas raw books with Mile High-type snowy pages may continue to get credit for feeling and smelling fresh and new.

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garthgantu

garthgantu

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I would echo Ian's statement: I'm not interested in collecting slabbed books. I have none in my collection. The knowledge that I can get any of my comics slabbed if/when that became 'necessary' is good enough for me at the moment.

 

I don't claim to be an expert in spotting restoration, but I'm not that concerned about the prospect of buying raw restored books. I tend to stick with a small group of sellers for higher-dollar purchases (books over $100 or so), and only take 'gambles' on cheaper stuff. I resent the notion that there's only one official arbiter / standard for comic book grading, restoration checking, pedigree assignation, etc.

 

One of the things that concerns me most about CGC is that it's a for-profit business that has landed squarely on my favorite collectible. As a business, it's in CGC's interest to continually create new "products" and services to sell. If/when the majority of back issues worth slabbing have been slabbed, I would be surprised if CGC didn't 'modify the market' to create new or expanded revenue streams for itself. One example of this is the Signature Series. A less benign example would be CGC announcing a change to its grading system, such as the addition of 9.1, 9.3, 9.5 and 9.7. If I was running CGC, I'd have this concept mapped out already, with a plan to implement it as soon as the current services start dropping off in terms of generating revenues. This would cause many people to resubmit their 9.2s in the hopes of 9.3s and so forth. And unlike most business where repeat customers receive some consideration/recompense for continuing to patronize the same business, at CGC the customers don't even WANT such a discount - they want to resubmit their books without acknowledging that they were ever submitted before. How sweet a deal is that?

 

The one thing that keeps the market from completely fragmenting is that comics are comics. Even if my copy of Detective 124 is only in VG and yours is in CGC NM 9.4, on some level most of us still share a mutual appreciation for the medium. (I say 'most' because there are certainly some speculators that own 'Tec 27 and don't know who Bruce Wayne is.)

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fantastic_four

fantastic_four

Posted
Posted
I've already noticed that buyers of CGC books pay little attention to page quality, and would rather have, say, a 9.2 with Cream pages than a 9.0 with one more little stress mark on the spine but White pages.

 

A lot of excellent points; the thing about CGC buyers not caring about page quality is the only one I disagree with. I suspect that CGC's notation of page quality on the label has actually increased the number of collectors who look for high page quality, because before CGC, it's not something dealers have advertised much at all. But now it's a "badge of honor" to have a 9.2 with white pages as opposed to cream, and I've definitely seen price differences paid for cream versus white.

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fantastic_four

fantastic_four

Posted
Posted
A less benign example would be CGC announcing a change to its grading system, such as the addition of 9.1, 9.3, 9.5 and 9.7. If I was running CGC, I'd have this concept mapped out already, with a plan to implement it as soon as the current services start dropping off in terms of generating revenues. This would cause many people to resubmit their 9.2s in the hopes of 9.3s and so forth. And unlike most business where repeat customers receive some consideration/recompense for continuing to patronize the same business, at CGC the customers don't even WANT such a discount - they want to resubmit their books without acknowledging that they were ever submitted before. How sweet a deal is that?

 

If they could make that work, I'm all for it. However, the reason Overstreet reduced the resolution of the grading scale from 100 points to 25 points is because the standards didn't allow grade assignments on a 100-point scale with much consistency. I strongly feel that even the 25-point scale is too ambitious at this point in time, and CGC has not shown to date that they're all that consistent on it either. I believe most experienced graders would agree that there's at least a 1-notch margin of error in CGC's process, and the process of almost every other grader also.

 

It'll be interesting to see if 3PG lasts long enough for us to determine how reliable and consistent they are with that 100-point scale they're using.

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garthgantu

garthgantu

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I agree, FF, but Overstreet doesn't/didn't really have any monetary inducement to push the 100-point scale. Further, I'm only talking about 'expanding' the scale at the top of the pyramid, where

- there's clearly a premium paid for .2 difference in grade, or even .1 if you compare a 9.9 book to the same issue in 10.0

- you could make an argument that in that rarified zone, a true grading 'structure' could distinguish between 9.4 and 9.5.

 

Given, CGC would never disclose what that 'structure' was exactly, but if you're in possession of an ASM 14 in CGC NM 9.4 that you think has a decent shot at 9.5, you'd send it in, because the difference could amount to thousands of dollars.

 

Again, that was just one example. I foresee CGC finding lots of new revenue streams over the next few years - they have to. Maybe it's "resto check only" services for a flat $10 fee, or some sort of 'arbitration' service whereby buyers and sellers agree to submit a book to CGC, along with some escrowed moneys, allowing CGC to finalize a transaction based on zero resto and a certain minimum grade achieved. Regardless, these all amount to moves that further entrench CGC as the standard, and I'm not convinced that's a good thing.

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OldSchoolTerry

OldSchoolTerry

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I bet there are a lot of collectors who stay clear of slabbing their books and/or buying slabbed books entirely.

So will we wind up with collectors who only buy raw at guide or less?....

 

That's me to a tee.

You couldn't have described my collecting philosophy better.

 

Well, I feel validated that a prolific collector such as yourself shares my philosophy.. thumbsup2.gif

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garthgantu

garthgantu

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To be fair, Ian's not a high-grade collector. High volume, yes. High-dollar, yes. But not high grade.

 

I'm kinda schizophrenic when it comes to condition. I try to get only VF and above SA books, and FN/VF and above GA books, but given my modest discretionary income, that's not always realistic, especially if I want to actually fill runs of most GA (and even many SA) titles.

 

Are there strictly high-grade collectors who don't use CGC in some sense?

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fantastic_four

fantastic_four

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Heh - point taken. Let me rephrase: Are there high grade collectors on these boards who don't use CGC, and who don't purchase CGCed books and then crack the slabs as a rule?

 

I assume you meant who do purchase CGC books and then crack them. Probably not many; the types of books that people get slabbed are probably better protected in a CGC case anyway. I've broken a few open, but if it's a book I could frick up easily through mishandling (i.e. 9.4 or above) or a book I think I might upgrade later I don't break it.

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Timely

Timely

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Even now when a book is mentioned in comic circles you get,"Is it slabbed or raw". I know CGC was created to take the guess work out of a comics grade, and give the buyer peace of mind, but has it become it's own market even as I type? It seems to me that we are headed in that direction, wether that's good or bad I don't know. If the market keeps going as it is now then you will have buyers that are only interested in slabbed books or books that are worthy to be slabbed. I, for one, do not want all the HG books slabbed, because the day one can't sell a HG raw book for fair market value will be a sad and dark day indeed. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

 

One hour ago I sold my Amazing Spiderman #194 CGC 9.8 in person for $600.00 cash! The book guides for $22, that is 27.3 times guide!!! If it were raw and I graded it 9.8 it would sell on ebay for $20-35 max!

 

I have a Detective Comics #526 that I grade 9.8 that is on ebay right now. It currently has NO bids...time to send a few books to CGC.......Me thinks! 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

Timely

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THE_BEYONDER

THE_BEYONDER

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One hour ago I sold my Amazing Spiderman #194 CGC 9.8 in person for $600.00 cash! The book guides for $22, that is 27.3 times guide!!! If it were raw and I graded it 9.8 it would sell on ebay for $20-35 max!

 

It is that exact scenario that is beginning to worry me...... frown.gif

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backtomarvel

backtomarvel

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I've wondered about the resto check only and why they don't do that. It would likely be more than $10 because it would still have to be encased, and breaking the seal would negate the assurance.

 

This would feed "buy the book not the label." It actually seems a very good enterprise for an entreprenuer because it's mostly equipment, a sharp eye and some experience, right?

 

It's an absolute, not an opinion about grade. It's either restored or it isn't, it's slabbed so there's no screwing around and you can post huge scans on eBay where someone can decide the grade for themselves.

 

Seems like there's a business opportunity there for someone in the comic field.

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