How to fix the Overstreet Guide...

[greggy]

The Guide IS annual. When it comes out in April/May it is reporting sales from the previous year. I believe the OS advisors send in their pricing info around November/December. So as you see, OS is already outdated the second you get it in your hands when it comes out in April!

 

I cannot believe you guys on this board! In one (more like 100) thread you talk about the "crash" and how books are going to be worth less (and worthless) and yet in here many of you same members talk about how the guide is too low and Bob is off his gourd with the low pricing!

 

Timely

 

Hey, we wants our cake, and we will eat it too!

[drice6900]

[greggy]

[drice6900]

[Timely]

The Guide IS annual. When it comes out in April/May it is reporting sales from the previous year. I believe the OS advisors send in their pricing info around November/December. So as you see, OS is already outdated the second you get it in your hands when it comes out in April!

 

I cannot believe you guys on this board! In one (more like 100) thread you talk about the "crash" and how books are going to be worth less (and worthless) and yet in here many of you same members talk about how the guide is too low and Bob is off his gourd with the low pricing!

 

Timely

 

Hey, we wants our cake, and we will eat it too!

 

I see that!

 

Timely

[sterlingcomics]

THAT's why moving the Guide entirely to digital format would be a boon...

 

Now that's the first sensible idea I've heard all night! As a previous member noted, it will take time to get something like this together, but the gpanalysis web site is well on its way of doing this. IMO, if there's an electronic data exchange format (such as XML) that can deliver sales data, you'd have tons of ways ot slicing and dicing the data---who would need an old static book format for this stuff that was already outdated when it was being created? (I'm not picking on anything/anyone, just asking the question)

 

Data is only useful if its timely and relevant. Overstreet Guide needs to wake up and smell the coffee--it's all about the information. And yes, I would personally pay a higher price for more relevant and timely info. IMO, something like gpanalysis at least gives me a closer idea for what CGC slabs are selling for than Overstreet is at delivering raw prices...

 

The old computer addage "garbage in, garbage out" rings true here too...it's difficult to make a decision if the data isn't accurate or up to date.

 

[Aman619]

I was trying to hint that if Overstreet/gemstone remains complacent very much longer, GPAnalysis might supplant it for up-to-the-minute data. I would think a web solution works best rather than a CD; or perhaps a program you install that has built in internet lookup tools that mine data from the company's website database. Or a simple solution like Valiantman's CGC Census Analysis filters...

 

Overstreet (as Arnold alluded) has resisted countless overtures to digitize the guide data. But there may comea time when they have waited too long. But clearly, there doesnt seem to be a pot of gold in it for Gemstone as far as they can see.

[sterlingcomics]

Interesting point. Gemstone is primarily not an information services company, no? People pay for information all the time...eBay does it on a transaction per transaction API call. Checking your credit rating, etc etc. Hmmm....

 

Companies build data warehouses to see trends and to remain/become profitable and to target marketing efforts. It's probably over-kill for this hobby (how much money does selling comics generate in our economy?) but it would definitely help to remove some of the data availability issues for buyers and allow sellers to know more (potentially) about those in this hobby...

 

Anyway, the problem can be solved and there's technology to do it. Someone just needs to understand if the costs of building (and more importantly-maintaining) the effort can be justified.

[UnrulyAppendage]

If everybody knows the guide is wrong, is there a need to update?

 

Not everybody knows, just a few hundred people. The average collector doesn't know, the majority of the 3000 or so local comic shops don't know (if the 40-50 shops in my state are any indication), most small regional dealers at conventions don't know (I say this because I consistently buy 9.4 books from dealers in my area priced at Guide and then they knock 10% or so off when I buy), and insurance claims adjusters don't know.

 

It seems like only national dealers and high-end collectors know...and it effectively allows new material to flow into their hands at well below market prices. How hard is it for a dealer to go ahead and offer an original owner the full Overstreet NM price for Gold, early Silver, or key Bronze to see if they bite? I can't imagine that's not just standard procedure--if not offering HALF guide, which is what the essays at the front of Overstreet have always suggested as the most you can expect a dealer to pay. Not hard to see why some people think that's the real reason the Guide prices are too low...although I prefer not to jump to that conclusion, I suspect it has more to do with caution and uncertainty related to inaccurate grading and the lower prices associated with it.

 

Well, that is my point. Those that care already know. Anybody who is selling GA and SA high grade should do research on the value of their comics to begin with. I don't think overstreet is pulling anything over because they falt out state that they do not cover CGC graded books at the moment but they do give examples of CGC graded books getting top dollar. This is more to do with overstreet trying to include those prices as part of it's guide prices. If they don't, they may be left behind. CGC values are more dependent on individual issues, and if those values are consistent over a few years time, then Overstreet should include those values. But we have all seen big price flunctuations on CGC books of the same issue that it is hard to put a number on the value.

 

As far as dealers getting better deals, that is the nature of being a dealer. If they did not buy low and sell high, they would not be in business. We collectors have much better options of liquidating our collections online so I think offers dealers make will get better if one decides to go that way. I just don't think putting the burden of being a total source of information on Overstreet in regards to CGC values is fair. They would have to concentrate more resources at keeping track of monthly values for a smaller segment of the collecting community that cares. If CGC prices do stabilise, Overstreet will have to cover those prices in a different format or a supplement format. I can imagine that they will over a traditional guide, or a guide that includes an online subscription covering and charting CGC prices

[fantastic_four]

Well, that is my point. Those that care already know. Anybody who is selling GA and SA high grade should do research on the value of their comics to begin with.

 

How are original owners or small shop owners supposed to know this? Your argument effectively is that they should know better than to trust Overstreet. That's really what you're arguing for in favor of making the guide reflect reality more closely?

 

 

As far as dealers getting better deals, that is the nature of being a dealer. If they did not buy low and sell high, they would not be in business. We collectors have much better options of liquidating our collections online so I think offers dealers make will get better if one decides to go that way. I just don't think putting the burden of being a total source of information on Overstreet in regards to CGC values is fair.

 

It's not just CGC values!!! Before somebody attempts to debate the point that the ONLY types of books that go for multiples of guide are CGC certified, PLEASE point out ONE Overstreet advisor who charges Overstreet prices for tightly graded, unrestored high grade Gold, early Silver, or key Bronze issues. Just one!!!

 

Buying low and selling high isn't the potential evil, it's buying ABSURDLY low because of inaccurate guide pricing. I can't tell whether you're not understanding the problem with that, or just intentionally overlooking it. If someone shows a collector the Overstreet value of a NM Spidey 22 to be $420, offers him $300 for it, and then sells it as a NM 9.4 comic for $1500 or more...you're saying there's no problem there? They're using Overstreet as a crutch to make FAR more profit than they're entitled to!!! I really hold out hope that's not Bob's intent.

[Zanarkand]

GPAnalysis will never be able to be comprehensive. Even if they collect a massive database over the years, covering prices realized for hundreds of thousands of comics, they will always fall short.

 

They do not report sales, they report auctions. Right there they are missing the vast majority of transactions.

 

They really don't even report auctions accurately, just slabbed auctions - no make that CGC auctions, since they don't report CGG or 3PG, which despite all the booers and hissers around here, sell pretty well.

 

Most comics never even get slabbed because the market prices realized don't make a $30 - $80 expense worth it. Even hot sellers. If slabbing it won't bring you an extra $30+ in price realized, don't spend $30 to slab it. Basic business sense. Yet no dealer can deny that BA runs of X-Men and ASM, just to name two, are top sellers in all grades, to say nothing of the keys. GPAnalysis will never reflect that though. They'll only ever record books that realize a premuim when slabbed. Talk about overlooking a huge percentage of the market!

 

No slight against GPAnalysis intended. They do a good job of reporting when Overstreet does not. Overstreet reports sales in general and smooths over aberrations. GPAnalysis reports entirely aberrations.

[UnrulyAppendage]

FF

 

There are alternative guides out there. Each has it's strengths and weakneses. Each has its pros and cons. Overstreet is considered the leading guide but it does not make it the all inclusive source. If I were selling my GA/SA books, I would do research and not take into account one sources information alone. Reading the Overstreet advisors articles, they all say that CGC HG books get multiples of guide, and even raw HG gets multiples of guide. The Guide itself says their prices are general guidlines and the ultimate price is up to the seller and buyer. Are you assuming that collectors are too dumb to figure this out?

 

That seller to the dealer has the option of selling his book to the dealer or getting it slabbed and selling it online. The Guide even gives tips on selling books yourself and bypassing the dealer. No, I don't see anything wrong with buying a book at less than guide, getting it slabbed, and making a big profit. The original owner has the option of doing that himself and if anyone who reads the guide would know this. They would not know the prices the price they could get, but they would know it would be well above guide.

[fantastic_four]

Are you assuming that collectors are too dumb to figure this out?

 

They're not dumb, they're ignorant. Dumb infers mental incapacity; ignorance means they just don't know. Every human being is ignorant of 99.999999999999% of the available human knowledge out there...that's the nature of complexity in our world. They're trusting Overstreet's prices, and I'm NOT assuming it--I'm speaking from experience!!! I have surveyed my own small market microcosm here in Virginia and come to the conclusion that almost no dealers realize how much the rarer 9.4 books go for. The reason I know this is because I've bought thousands of dollars worth of books from them at Overstreet NM prices in the last three years that sell for multiples of that. Do I feel guilty? A little. I thought that after a few years of E-Bay and CGC, they'd eventually figure it out...but they simply haven't. And it's almost always the same...they price strictly by Overstreet. Why? They're not high grade collectors themselves, they don't commonly get those books, and they're too busy with their day jobs (regional convention dealers) or the hundreds of types of items sold at their local comic shops to follow the high grade market that consists of a TINY percentage of their sales. They're outsourcing their market pricing data to Overstreet...and unfortunately...Overstreet is coming up short on the rare books. It's an incredible resource for 99% of what small con and local comic shop dealers sell, though...don't let my distaste for Overstreet's pricing on high grade books in short supply overshadow the otherwise excellent job they do.

 

I'm still incredulous that you believe the de facto standard price guide for the comic book industry shouldn't report uncommon prices with accuracy!!!

[comicwiz]

Buying low and selling high isn't the potential evil, it's buying ABSURDLY low because of inaccurate guide pricing. I can't tell whether you're not understanding the problem with that, or just intentionally overlooking it.

 

The potential for deception in the publication of OS guide has been in allowing its advisors to also be involved with enterprising pursuits in the comic hobby. It is a conflict of interest issue which will always raise rancerous debate, and leaves plenty of room for market manipulation, specifcally in relation to the OS guides low NM pricing, and the phenomemom of "multiple-guide" dealer pricing on NM or higher-grade comics.

.

[joe_collector]

The potential for deception in the publication of OS guide has been in allowing its advisors to also be involved with enterprising pursuits in the comic hobby. It is a conflict of interest issue which will always raise rancerous debate, and leaves plenty of room for market manipulation, specifcally in relation to the OS guides low NM pricing, and the phenomemom of "multiple-guide" dealer pricing on NM or higher-grade comics.

 

This has been going on for a long, long time, and don't you think that someday all these "multiple-guide" raw dealer sales should be reflected in the OS Guide?

 

The OS has two main purposes:

 

1) To provide information, such as first appearances, artists, etc.

 

2) To allow dealers to wave an "industry standard" price guide in front of the general public, and then rape them silly when buying their comics.

[comicwiz]

This has been going on for a long, long time, and don't you think that someday all these "multiple-guide" raw dealer sales should be reflected in the OS Guide?

 

The OS has two main purposes:

 

1) To provide information, such as first appearances, artists, etc.

 

2) To allow dealers to wave an "industry standard" price guide in front of the general public, and then rape them silly when buying their comics.

 

What I call the "Hydra" -- this comparitive component to the OS guide, which would essentially reveal "muliptle-guide" sales and reporting; a face which many believed would never be revealed, nor its apocalyptic mayhem.

 

There are however a few things which I believe are serving as a hinderance to the degree of "opportunism" enjoyed for so long. The first is eBay. The mere mention of the name brings with it calculating pursuits by young and old. A senior who may have otherwise depended on a retailer to cash out on some of thier funny books now have some reprieve in knowing that a grandson, even at the tender age of 7, may assist in translating some of the clutter in their retirement home dwellings into disposable earnings.

 

The second is the advent of third-party grading and CGC. We are seeing more and more, the ability for a close-knit community of collectors who are tracking comics throughout many years of purchasing both through online and private means. The CGC registry has also had a hand in this endeavour. With the help of scanning technology, and digital cameras, collectors are now managing to match up comics, which would otherwise have gone unnoticed. Specifically, books which have ganered higher premiums on resale, specifcally when undetected enhancements are made to improve its appearance and overall grade. It is certainly lending itself to a greater degree of precaution for consigners and dealers entrusted with the fiduciary responsibility of attaining the highest possible premium for their customer.

 

And to some degree, these two developments in the hobby have also worked well in preventing, as much as they have in aiding, in certain profiteering practices. Further facilitating private purchases are the reporting tools offered by eBay and GPAnalysis which in effect serve as a way to control, or cap, the ability of the dealer to sell a book at exaggerated "muliples" of guide. Why pay 2K for a NM 9.4 X-Men 94, when a copy recently sold on eBay for $1500? Tools which have assited buyers in keeping dealers in check have served as both a saviour for the conscious buyer, and higher than normal levels of frustration for dealers who have come to expect and enjoy significant returns on high-grade books before the advent of eBay. Lets not forget things like quality of production, miscuts, and overall appeal as factors which are also foiling efforts to ganrer higher returns. These are noticeable/observable defects which when mixed with a surging sensitivity within the collecting community for the perfect book, acting as a hinderances to the profiteering speculator, as access to expertise and a maturing collector community is all made possible through digital scans/photos which work to overcome logistical constraints such as distance and travel by simulating real time viewing over the web.

 

Perhaps the Hyrdra may be revealing itself in the comic market; but not in ways that we could ever have imagined.

[Illiterati-migration]

I'm still incredulous that you believe the de facto standard price guide for the comic book industry shouldn't report uncommon prices with accuracy!!!

 

Interesting that "standard" is an antonym for "uncommon"...

[UnrulyAppendage]

I'm still incredulous that you believe the de facto standard price guide for the comic book industry shouldn't report uncommon prices with accuracy!!!

 

If the guide advertised itself as having the latest information with the most accurate pricing available, then yes it should report on those prices.For accurate pricing, the guide would have to come out on a monthly basis, prefferably with an online subscription. Overstreet would have to devote more manhours keeping track of fewer books for a smaller audience. The prices flunctuate greatly within the year on some of these "uncommon prices." The guide is a guide, not the end all resource for comic book buying. Should Overstreet also report how some issues sell below guide in certain regions of the country at certain times of the year? Since the guide does not advertise itself as keeping the latest information, no I don't think it should cover the high end prices 9.6 and over get.

 

My point was this information is out there already in regards to the prices of NM issues and the guide even states that NM books get multiples of guide. Why do you think you have more part time dealers on ebay or old time collectors getting their NM books out of the attic and getting them slabbed? Because they see the prices they are getting on ebay by collectors selling their collections themselves.

 

Who should be the advisors to Overstreet? If the problem is having market manipulation by the people advising Overstreet, then who should be making suggestions? It can't be the dealers on ebay who sell their slabbed gems because they have an interest. Are we going to have an independent audit by coinee guys who have no interest or knowledge of comic books?

 

 

 

[fantastic_four]

If the guide advertised itself as having the latest information with the most accurate pricing available, then yes it should report on those prices.For accurate pricing, the guide would have to come out on a monthly basis, prefferably with an online subscription.

 

Errr...someone already made that argument in this thread...and I STILL don't get the point of it. Multiples of guide for NM Gold, early Silver, and key Bronze didn't start within the last few months!! It started before CGC even came out.

 

 

Since the guide does not advertise itself as keeping the latest information, no I don't think it should cover the high end prices 9.6 and over get.

 

Well I agree...so shouldn't they just drop the 9.4 column too on certain types of books if they can't keep up with it?

 

 

My point was this information is out there already in regards to the prices of NM issues and the guide even states that NM books get multiples of guide.

 

Somehow, smaller dealers aren't seeing it. I've got a great idea! Why not move that information into the pricing itself! Revolutionary, yes...but more people might actually notice it then!

[joe_collector]

Errr...someone already made that argument in this thread...and I STILL don't get the point of it. Multiples of guide for NM Gold, early Silver, and key Bronze didn't start within the last few months!! It started before CGC even came out.

 

In a mid-80's OS, there were two Market Reports that really highlighted what the Guide is all about:

 

Exhibit 1: Dealer A was outliining the prices he was getting on NM Silver Age books, and they went anywhere from 5X Guide to 20X Guide and more. Remember that back then, OS prices were even more ludicrous than they were today, and it was purely a "dealer buy price guide".

 

Exhibit 2: Dealer B was complaining about the "recent price spikes" in the OS Guide and that now he was being forced to pay much more for his back issue stock. One big rant was on Captain America 100 (which Dealer A was selling for $25+ in NM when it was a $4 book) and "how in the world it could now be worth $12!". "Now I have to pay $4 for each NM copy..." and so on and so forth.

 

Dealer B was steamed that Bob had raised prices to about 1/4 to 1/2 true market rates, thus making him pay (gasp) up to $4 for each Captain America 100 NM copy that came in the door. Dealer A was trying to report the truth, and offered up "Buy Prices" that were all well over Guide.

 

Once I read this, any illusion that the OS Price Guide was for anyone by dealers buying old comics quickly evaporated. Even in 1986, it had no grip on reality, and those contributing to the "verified sales" had every reason to create a huge rift between the "guide price" and the price they were actually selling at.