How to fix the Overstreet Guide...

[comicwiz]

Who should be the advisors to Overstreet? If the problem is having market manipulation by the people advising Overstreet, then who should be making suggestions?

 

It ought to be the advisors who faciliate for solutions. And yet I think Overstreet will be forced to experiment with this in the coming years, or face up to the music. Although what I'm about to propose is far from being a solution, (keep also in mind that I am not privy to the process Overstreet currently uses, and how advisors recommendations influence market valuations) here are some suggestions:

 

i) decide which cons/shows are the most popular for advisors and market analysts alike to base their valuations;

 

ii) just as CGC does with its signature series books, Overstreet should send a pair or several indpendent auditors to coroborate and confirm the figures espoused by select dealers at those selected shows/cons. This method is still reliant somewhat on the "word" of the dealers, but in effect you may also be involving "new" and reputable comic dealers who have been around the business for years, but for some reason have been overlooked as advisors;

 

iii) compile this information in a database, and index it in a meaningful way so as to facilitate for efficient valuation reporting and analysis;

 

iv) because the data DOES NOT belong to GPAnalysis per se, Overstreet may benefit significantly by getting a membership, and use the "mean" valuations generated through the GPA site to allow them to compare that data (which includes online auction results from eBay, Heritage Comics, Vault Auctions, All Star Auctions, JP-TheMint and Yahoo.com) with OS's own research (ie. If their own independent research reveals that NM 9.4 Marvel Spotlight 5's sold steadily in the 1K range for over the course of an entire year, and the GPA valuations are consistent with their own valuations, then not only are their valuations predicated on the advise of 20-30 advisors, but rather a collection of dealers, collectors, and online auctions sales). As controversial as this may sound, such a strategy may well relieve OS from any lamentation of manpower and resources related issues. I would also argue that this type of strategy would be far more comprehensive, and all-encompassing, and would reflect more accurate valuations than their current method of market research and valuation.

 

Would it remove the element of market manipulation completely? Maybe not, but I think the aforementioned suggestions would definitely be a step in the right direction.

 

Unfortunately, there is no simple answer to the matter of finding advisors who are not somehow STILL connected to the "business" of comics. But I would argue that the impetus to move to a more technical formula which is independent and neutral of any advice from active dealers and very influential people in the comic market is that the guide will be completely abandoned in the face of more online pricing data, research and information more reflective of todays comic market. And then there is the example of CGC, and as a third-party service provider of grading comic back issues, CGC understood the need to staff people who ARE NOT dealers, or collectors themselves. And still, CGC managed to staff its team with some of the best people in the business. Perhaps OS could learn from CGC, and do the same.

[comicwiz]

Even in 1986, it had no grip on reality, and those contributing to the "verified sales" had every reason to create a huge rift between the "guide price" and the price they were actually selling at.

 

Here is a scenario which further elaborates this point; my CGC NM 9.4 copy of Hulk 181 is stolen. I contact my insurance company, and the adjuster mentions that they will need some proof of ownership and value to process my claim for replacement value. I would be a complete imbecile if I provided the adjuster with a photocopy of the OS values, rather than a list of completed auctions on eBay for a CGC certified NM 9.4, or valuation data from the GPA site.

 

And just when I start searching for a copy to replace mine, the insurance adjuster reviews my file, and contacts me indicating that there is a HUGE discrepancy between my values, and their their appraisers values who sited the NM 9.4 price from the Overstreet guide. As a consumer, and a person nterested in "replacing" my stolen item, the "verfied sales" and OS valuations would not adequately serve my collecting interests, and a discussion highliting how OS values are nothing more than a way to ensure dealers a steady upturn on resale would be imminent.

[Smokinghawk]

Okay, I'm willing to risk being mocked for ignorance in order to ask this question, which genuinely puzzles me...

 

People are often hostile or dismissive toward the Wizard guide.

 

But why? I mean, Overstreet is criticized for lagging behind the "fast-paced" fluctuations of comics pricing, and failing to reflect the actual selling values of comics, including (especially) slabbed books.

 

Wizard publishes a guide monthly that appears to be closer to actual selling values for most comics, and has a special section of prices for high-grade slabbed books. And being monthly, it's fairly quick to note price trends. And for these very reasons, it's criticized as a guide that's tied to trends and moment-to-moment fads, whereas Overstreet is by comparison a "long haul" bedrock record.

 

So the very weaknesses that are noted about OS are the apparent strengths of Wizard, and yet (ironically) then become the very characteristics about Wizard that are criticized too.

 

I know that if I want to buy an ASM #3, I'll find a more representative price in Wizard for actual ebay expectations that I'd find in OS. Like them or hate them, the Wizard people seem to monitor trends and report more "real life" pricing.

 

 

[fantastic_four]

I haven't read Wizard for years. What are current prices on AF15, Spidey 1, and FF #1?

[joe_collector]

I know that if I want to buy an ASM #3, I'll find a more representative price in Wizard for actual ebay expectations that I'd find in OS. Like them or hate them, the Wizard people seem to monitor trends and report more "real life" pricing.

 

I agree, but Wizard is too concerned with covering each and every variant cover of each and every POS book, even if they're all worth cover.

 

For the books they do list, I find it much more accurate on real-world prices, and Wizard even includes a CGC section.

[fantastic_four]

How do they price CGC books? The CGC pricing they had on their web site before it went down was pathetic...they just applied a simple linear formula to the regular prices that was barely different.

[Foolkiller]

It's just that Wizard doesn't provide any detailed breakdown for the prices they list... but are they actually wrong on silver? probably not, especially since they list the prices as representative for CGC 9.0...

 

but really, where does their data come from? Does anybody know? That's the problem... it seems like they ripped the original data off Overstreet... it's not like I would trust the opinion of most store owners on prices of back issues, so their "network of retailers" is worthless for silver/bronze prices... and I get the sense that they don't devote that much time to the tracking of sales other than CGC and modern books.

 

The book knock on Wizard is simply that they sort of randomly decide what will be "hot" or not... sometimes it's on the money, and other times, it's not trends they're picking up on rather than just highlighting books they feel should be pushed. Is the raw data rediculous... probably not that much more.

 

 

[fantastic_four]

but really, where does their data come from? Does anybody know? That's the problem...

 

It's been years since I even thought about Wizard and somehow I had blocked them out of my mind as even being a legitimate price guide, but I rememeber now this is the primary reason they got blocked out of my mind in the first place.

[joe_collector]

but really, where does their data come from? Does anybody know? That's the problem...

 

It's been years since I even thought about Wizard and somehow I had blocked them out of my mind as even being a legitimate price guide, but I rememeber now this is the primary reason they got blocked out of my mind in the first place.

 

I think all you OS supporters would be surprised at where that data comes from.

 

Hint:

 

Enter % Increase

Update All? Yes/No

 

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[lou_fine]

I have surveyed my own small market microcosm here in Virginia and come to the conclusion that almost no dealers realize how much the rarer 9.4 books go for. The reason I know this is because I've bought thousands of dollars worth of books from them at Overstreet NM prices in the last three years that sell for multiples of that. Do I feel guilty? A little. I thought that after a few years of E-Bay and CGC, they'd eventually figure it out...but they simply haven't. And it's almost always the same...they price strictly by Overstreet. Why? They're not high grade collectors themselves, they don't commonly get those books, and they're too busy with their day jobs (regional convention dealers) or the hundreds of types of items sold at their local comic shops to follow the high grade market that consists of a TINY percentage of their sales. They're outsourcing their market pricing data to Overstreet...and unfortunately...Overstreet is coming up short on the rare books. It's an incredible resource for 99% of what small con and local comic shop dealers sell, though...don't let my distaste for Overstreet's pricing on high grade books in short supply overshadow the otherwise excellent job they do.

 

I'm still incredulous that you believe the de facto standard price guide for the comic book industry shouldn't report uncommon prices with accuracy!!!

 

 

FF;

 

Your above comments shows exactly why Overstreet is between a rock and a hard place when it comes to pricing. Should he be basing his guide on the >95% of the conservative prices being realized at conventions and local comic shops or only on the <5% high-end prices being realized by Heritage, speculators, and the top dollar outliers.

 

Are you proposing that OS's next guide come in with prices such as $6K for X-Men #94, $15K for Hulk #181, $57K for Target Comics #7, etc. since these were some of the prices realized in 2003. I realize that I am stretching it a bit here since these books were all <9.4, but you still get my drift. I wouldn't have a problem with those prices, but only on the condition that they were sustainable prices. My bet is that if OS were to come out with guide prices that reflected only the high-end of the market, the marketplace would experience an immediate price correction to be followed by successive years of price declines. CGC will no longer be a issue and you and I will not be having this discussion because everybody would have left these boards by then.

 

OS has always taken a position whereby they tend to lag the market and wait for prices to consolidate. They seem to try to avoid the situation whereby they appear to be leading the market by using the high end of the market as their primary source of data for pricing. When the Overstreet guide first came out in 1970, a lot of collectors called it the Overpriced guide since they felt that prices were way too high. Believe it or not, some collectors still feel the same way about it today. I guess it really depends on what particular niche of the market you are looking at. No matter what he does, a lot of collectors will still be unhappy and voicing their complaints.

 

Tough for Bob to put out a price guide since there are clearly two distinct markets developing: the raw books and the CGC books with a world of difference between the two of them. I believe he is just going to continue increasing the spread for the higher grades since he really has no other choice. Hopefully he'll break out more of the books with classic covers, scarcer issues, higher demand, etc which are realizing higher prices in the marketplace as compared to the surrounding lower demand common books. IMHO

[Timely]

Well said Lou! 5 stars for you!

Timely

[fantastic_four]

Your above comments shows exactly why Overstreet is between a rock and a hard place when it comes to pricing. Should he be basing his guide on the >95% of the conservative prices being realized at conventions and local comic shops or only on the <5% high-end prices being realized by Heritage, speculators, and the top dollar outliers.

 

Which comes first, the chicken or the egg...or put into comic terms, the price small sellers charge or the price Overstreet lists them at? 95% of the world is using Overstreet to price, and Overstreet won't raise prices because they're using his prices? In the meantime, while the prices aren't reflecting the reality of the short supply, the 95% of sellers who use the guide are leaving tens, hundreds, or thousands of dollars on the table once someone from the 5% minority comes along to buy their books who is aware of the short supply. Which group are the advisors in--the 95% majority or the 5% minority? And if they're in the minority as my experience with looking at some of their inventories leads me to believe...why does the guide not reflect the values THEY place on these high demand comics in short supply?

 

 

My bet is that if OS were to come out with guide prices that reflected only the high-end of the market, the marketplace would experience an immediate price correction to be followed by successive years of price declines. CGC will no longer be a issue and you and I will not be having this discussion because everybody would have left these boards by then.

 

Why is this your bet? It sounds like you're on Timely's side in thinking that GPA and ComicSheet are the beginning of the end of our hobby since they're simply reporting what comics sell for and not what they think will be "best for the market." I've been asking Timely to expound upon this hypothesis, but nothing yet...can you go into more detail as to why the hobby can't handle reality?

 

Aren't Overstreet's prices fine most everywhere except on high grade uncommon comics? If this is the case, why does he have to mislead us--why not just drop that pricing entirely so that small dealers are forced to read the market reports up front or go to alternative sources to find prices on NM 9.4 comics? The prices seem not too far out of wack on the 9.0 and below prices for the books I collect, but the NM 9.4 prices are absolute fiction!

[Timely]

I am not against GPA for the reason that they are reporting factual information. I am against it because info that comes in too fast has the tendancy to induce panic. If some "crash" does begin GPA will instantly report lower sales which will induce sales that are lower than the previous ones.

 

I have already had this happen. A guy was interested in my graded comic. He saw the GPA high, low and average. Since it is human nature to want a deal, you can rest assured his offer was not above the highest listed price, nor was it above the average, it was below the average. If this sale was public knowledge for GPA to report and list, it would lower the average even further on this issue, making the next sale lower then mine. It is a pyramid scheme in reverse! This is what will cause a crash. The stock market works on those same principals, and we all have seen those black Mondays, do we really want to see that in our hobby?

 

Timely

[fantastic_four]

Do you mind sharing what the book was--title, issue, grade, page quality?

[Aces]

A guy was interested in my graded comic. He saw the GPA high, low and average. Since it is human nature to want a deal, you can rest assured his offer was not above the highest listed price, nor was it above the average, it was below the average.

 

It was just an offer...

 

Sometimes when I buy a bigger dollar book (raw or slabbed) and I'm not really sure what a fair price is, so my first offer is a little low, not to get a steal, just to set a floor and let the seller know I'm at least serious.

 

Let's say I want a GVG 3.0 FF 1. (Do I ever!)

I've never bought or sold an FF 1 before.

I see one for sale sticker price $1750.

I'm just a small time collector and not a big wheeler dealer so I don't really know what this month's hot books are and if FF1 is hot or cold.

I check GP and see low was $1150 (I'm making up numbers here), high was $1800 with the avgerage being $1500.

I'd make a opening offer of $1250 (a little more than the low ball) just to let the seller know I'm serious.

I'd probably go up to the $1500 avg if I really wanted it.

If I didn't have GP, then I might embarrass myself by making a ridiculous opening offer of like $750 or something.

The seller would think I'm dishonest, or an insufficiently_thoughtful_person and refuse to sell me anything.

[OldSchoolTerry]

So, in a nutshell after all of this debate, what I get out of it, is that the pricing seems to be somewhat fine with everyone here until we get to the real "high grade" books. Unfortunately for the Overstreet people, maybe the solution is to drop these highest grades from the book, and create a 2nd guide for the "high grade" market, with supplements monthly, or even quarterly. But, are they willing to do this? I would think not.

So, what are all of us doing now for pricing? Probably looking at the latest OS guide for prices in lower grades, and checking out GP Analysis, ebay sales, etc. for higher grade books?

[UnrulyAppendage]

So, in a nutshell after all of this debate, what I get out of it, is that the pricing seems to be somewhat fine with everyone here until we get to the real "high grade" books. Unfortunately for the Overstreet people, maybe the solution is to drop these highest grades from the book, and create a 2nd guide for the "high grade" market, with supplements monthly, or even quarterly. But, are they willing to do this? I would think not.

So, what are all of us doing now for pricing? Probably looking at the latest OS guide for prices in lower grades, and checking out GP Analysis, ebay sales, etc. for higher grade books?

 

Yes

[OldSchoolTerry]

So....I guess we're all done now....

[comicwiz]

Overstreet people, maybe the solution is to drop these highest grades from the book, and create a 2nd guide for the "high grade" market, with supplements monthly, or even quarterly. But, are they willing to do this? I would think not.

 

In relation to the extremely low OS NM 9.4 pricing in the guide, here is another angle to consider:

 

When Jay Kennedy decided to publish the Underground Comics price guide in 1982, there were many "hinted" reasons for the "low" valuations on key books. Most of the reasons are based on speculation more than fact. Although many collectors may disagree with my opinions and beliefs, I believe that the most prolific books were intentionally priced "low" giving Kennedy (and whatever he left behind, went to major underground dealers) the ability to sweep up the good, HTF books at "attainable" prices. Although the major difference between mainstream and underground collectors is that underground collectors don't care AS MUCH about high-grade as mainstream collectors do, the rarity and scarcity of certain underground comix titles and issues still leaves a groundswell of opportunity for any savvy dealer or purchaser who in most cases, will be more than willing to sit down with a collection, and price books at Kennedy's guide prices. Over time, underground collectors became more and more aware of this, and instead of being victims of a major fleecing ruse, decided instead to hang-on to what they owned.

 

Many also believe that if a supplement or new undergound guide were to be released with more comprehensive valuations, some of the really HTF stuff would start sufacing again. The only problem with this is that within a relatively dormant market, with collectors hanging on to their goods for so long, there is less likely a possibility for valuations tracking which accurately represents current market prices.

 

Either way, low pricing schemes, mixed with the fact that the guide has been out of print for over 20 years, and collectors begin to develop radical valuation methods like the one I commonly use when I purchase a grail : list it on eBay (with a reserve) to attain more current market values; otherwise in the event of a loss, your book will be appraised with values from a 20 year old price guide

 

The scary thing is that I do the same thing with mainstream books in NM 9.4 or higher grades

[sterlingcomics]

I second Timely's comment! Very good information and perspectives; excellent thread!!!