the next 9.4 AF15 sale

[Aman619]

we saw a flurry of sales a year ago of some of the 9.4 AF 15s. But nothing for awhile now. Question: have all 7 HG copies found "permanent" homes (defined as securely in the hands of collectors who will not sell them any time soon, nor need to sell them for food during this financial crisis")??

 

and, if so, can we say that AF15 at the top has now joined HG Action 1s in being books we will rarely (if at all) ever see for sale for years and years to come?

 

If one doesn't appear in the next year, I think we must say it has. And it further means that we will be left to GUESS what they are worth from now on, just like Action 1s, with no recent sales data to parse and track.

[Silver Surfer]

I think there are raw high grade copies that will continue to stay in that condition for a while. I remember Paulie talking about a few buddies who own some super nice copies in Oregon [along with some other killer books-that high grade Action #1 with slight P comes to mind, also from Oregon] and they had no intention of selling. Personally it would be tough to hang on to a $100-$300K book unless I had tons of extra cash I could use to continue to buy nice books with. The tempation to sell a $200k book, use the proceeds to buy a $30k-$50k copy and then buy a bunch of other books would be too great. I admire collectors who can hold on to gems for decades at a time, very hard to do.

[Silver Surfer]

After I made my post I just saw this thread in the GA section:

Link

Wonder if this is the same Action #1 I just mentioned?

[Aman619]

could be... how nice o sthe Superman 1 I wonder?

[tth2]

I think you have to use a longer time period than 1 year before saying that it's a "rarely sold" book. My general rule of thumb is 3-4 years. I rarely sell a book within 3 years of purchase.

[Aman619]

I meant for the other copies that didnt sell recently to come out, but, yeah, three or four years is a more realistic timeframe. And it took 4 years, Ill have my answer, Again, what Im "worried" about, or questioning, is if we have arrived at a time when big-time SA keys just stop moving around, like HG Action 1s and Tec 27s have. We spend a lot of ink discussing what the Church Action 1 is worth, but really havent a clue due to nonexistent sales data.

 

Yet we have seen AF15 rapidly and publicly rise in value for a long time now.

[fantastic_four]

and, if so, can we say that AF15 at the top has now joined HG Action 1s in being books we will rarely (if at all) ever see for sale for years and years to come?

 

Too early to even ask the question--or else the answer is simply no. How many copies of this book popped up on the open market in 9.2/9.4 from 2000 to 2005, I think one? If we don't see another public copy for 4 years, then we're being treated to more of the same of what we've seen in the past.

 

Most books like this trade hands privately--also true of most Action 1s I would imagine. Wasn't a big reason we saw the one we saw for sale because it had that dirty little secret, i.e. interior tanning? Or was it a different copy? If not, it's easier to sell books like that publicly and anonymously to newer buyers than directly to known buyers likely to pay great money for a great copy. I bid on the tanned CGC 9.4 AF15 at an anonymous auction and ask no questions, then I just eat my decision, but if someone sells it to me privately and doesn't disclose, but then someone else does later, I don't blame myself as much as I blame the seller.

 

Here's an SAT analogy for today: the movement of high grade Amazing Fantasy 15 copies is to the movement of high grade Action 1 copies as the movement of clouds is to the movement of continents.

[Aman619]

"""Here's an SAT analogy for today: the movement of high grade Amazing Fantasy 15 copies is to the movement of high grade Action 1 copies as the movement of clouds is to the movement of continents."""

 

 

 

it has been up till now.

 

but thats directly to my point: are we now at a new stage?

 

and I think your stats are wrong on how many 9.2/9.4 AF15s have sold publicly since 2004:

Diamond Run (Comiclink), (out of 5 copies)

WM (Pedigree) (out of 5 copies)

"cream pages copy" on PGC (out of 5 copies

Metro slabs 2 more 9.4s (now 7 copies)

Comiclink sells one for 217K

Comiclnk sells WM for 228K (or vice versa)

 

thats 7 public sales in those 4 years.

and nothing since.

 

and in all that time NONE of the top 5 Action 1s have been up for sale or sold.

 

 

[Aman619]

actually, FF I reread you post and see you picked 2000-2005 as a reference point.

 

Im not sure how many slabbed 9.4s existed in that period, wasnt it only 3 until 2003 or 4?

 

anyway, Im not saying none will appear, but, suggesting that, after a year now, none might! They may have landed in happy homes for a long time to come.

[fantastic_four]

Metro slabs 2 more 9.4s (now 7 copies)

 

Were those sold publicly or privately? How were they reported, via Overstreet reported sales?

[tth2]

I meant for the other copies that didnt sell recently to come out, but, yeah, three or four years is a more realistic timeframe. And it took 4 years, Ill have my answer, Again, what Im "worried" about, or questioning, is if we have arrived at a time when big-time SA keys just stop moving around, like HG Action 1s and Tec 27s have. We spend a lot of ink discussing what the Church Action 1 is worth, but really havent a clue due to nonexistent sales data.

 

Yet we have seen AF15 rapidly and publicly rise in value for a long time now.

You can`t have sales of what don`t exist. Unrestored Action 1s and Detective 27s simply don`t exist in HG, and therefore the few relatively HG copies that exist don`t trade hands except once every few decades.

 

AF 15 is fairly plentiful in 9.4 and I would say the number of copies that have changed hands over the last 5 or 6 years is about right. After the recent flurry of sales, if we don`t see another public sale in 4-5 years, then I might start buying into the theory that they`re really buried in collections now.

 

But compare it to genuinely tough SA Marvel keys in HG, like FF 1 and Hulk 1, and those really don`t change hands. I don`t count the "sale" of the 9.6 FF 1 by Doug to Tom. What I do find intriguing is the lack of public sales in recent years of the other main SA Marvel keys in 9.4 and above, which are more plentiful than FF 1 or Hulk 1. It`s been a while since a JIM 83, TOS 39 or X-men 1 in that kind of grade changed hands, with TOS 39 probably being most recent. The absence of public sales of X-Men 1s has been particularly suprising.

[tth2]

actually, FF I reread you post and see you picked 2000-2005 as a reference point.

 

Im not sure how many slabbed 9.4s existed in that period, wasnt it only 3 until 2003 or 4?

 

anyway, Im not saying none will appear, but, suggesting that, after a year now, none might! They may have landed in happy homes for a long time to come.

Actually, my recollection is that there were several sales during that period, as that was when the first Spidey movie came around. Bob Storms sold the 9.4 Diamond Run copy around 2000 for a princely $87K or so, and I seem to remember Heritage selling at least 2 9.4 copies, and Mark Wilson had a 9.4 copy that he was asking $150K or so for, if I recall. It`s never been a rare book in 9.4.

[johnnyhedge-migration]

There's always THIS for the more budget concious....

 

 

[Aman619]

I meant for the other copies that didnt sell recently to come out, but, yeah, three or four years is a more realistic timeframe. And it took 4 years, Ill have my answer, Again, what Im "worried" about, or questioning, is if we have arrived at a time when big-time SA keys just stop moving around, like HG Action 1s and Tec 27s have. We spend a lot of ink discussing what the Church Action 1 is worth, but really havent a clue due to nonexistent sales data.

 

Yet we have seen AF15 rapidly and publicly rise in value for a long time now.

You can`t have sales of what don`t exist. Unrestored Action 1s and Detective 27s simply don`t exist in HG, and therefore the few relatively HG copies that exist don`t trade hands except once every few decades.

 

AF 15 is fairly plentiful in 9.4 and I would say the number of copies that have changed hands over the last 5 or 6 years is about right. After the recent flurry of sales, if we don`t see another public sale in 4-5 years, then I might start buying into the theory that they`re really buried in collections now.

 

But compare it to genuinely tough SA Marvel keys in HG, like FF 1 and Hulk 1, and those really don`t change hands. I don`t count the "sale" of the 9.6 FF 1 by Doug to Tom. What I do find intriguing is the lack of public sales in recent years of the other main SA Marvel keys in 9.4 and above, which are more plentiful than FF 1 or Hulk 1. It`s been a while since a JIM 83, TOS 39 or X-men 1 in that kind of grade changed hands, with TOS 39 probably being most recent. The absence of public sales of X-Men 1s has been particularly suprising.

 

yes. nearly ALL the SA Marvels keys in 9.4 have disappeared from sight.

 

[kc120us]

[. The absence of public sales of X-Men 1s has been particularly suprising.

 

As far as I know, none of the three 9.4 X-men #1's have ever gone up for public sale. And the last 9.2 that sold was back in 2005.

[tth2]

[. The absence of public sales of X-Men 1s has been particularly suprising.

 

As far as I know, none of the three 9.4 X-men #1's have ever gone up for public sale. And the last 9.2 that sold was back in 2005.

There've definitely been at least 2 public sales of a 9.4 X-Men #1 within the last 5-6 years. At least one was on CL. I'm trying to remember if Mike Grissmer's X-Men #1 that he sold as part of his incredible X-Men run on CL was a 9.4 or 9.6.

[kc120us]

[. The absence of public sales of X-Men 1s has been particularly suprising.

 

As far as I know, none of the three 9.4 X-men #1's have ever gone up for public sale. And the last 9.2 that sold was back in 2005.

There've definitely been at least 2 public sales of a 9.4 X-Men #1 within the last 5-6 years. At least one was on CL. I'm trying to remember if Mike Grissmer's X-Men #1 that he sold as part of his incredible X-Men run on CL was a 9.4 or 9.6.

 

Ok. I was going by GPA and I don't think GPA had any listed.

[tth2]

[. The absence of public sales of X-Men 1s has been particularly suprising.

 

As far as I know, none of the three 9.4 X-men #1's have ever gone up for public sale. And the last 9.2 that sold was back in 2005.

There've definitely been at least 2 public sales of a 9.4 X-Men #1 within the last 5-6 years. At least one was on CL. I'm trying to remember if Mike Grissmer's X-Men #1 that he sold as part of his incredible X-Men run on CL was a 9.4 or 9.6.

 

Ok. I was going by GPA and I don't think GPA had any listed.

CL is definitely a major gap in GPA's database.

[jimjum12]

[.  The absence of public sales of X-Men 1s has been particularly suprising. 

As far as I know, none of the three 9.4 X-men #1's have ever gone up for public sale. And the last 9.2 that sold was back in 2005.

There've definitely been at least 2 public sales of a 9.4 X-Men #1 within the last 5-6 years.  At least one was on CL.  I'm trying to remember if Mike Grissmer's X-Men #1 that he sold as part of his incredible X-Men run on CL was a 9.4 or 9.6.

Pretty sure it was 9.6 and I believe it fetched 110 K...but don't quote me on it.GOD BLESS...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u