silverage collecting, whats its lifespan?

[murph0]

When people constantly post about how bad things are or how they are going to be..that would be negativity. It's certainly not positive?

 

Brian

[fantastic_four]

Very Western-civilization, Aristotilean point of view there. There's a middle ground between positive and negative, and in debate, that middle ground is the truth.

 

ComicInvestor certainly posts his market observations negatively, as you describe. Delekkerste sometimes does. However, the facts and/or opinions they post are, in and of themselves, neutral. Those guys sometimes surround their facts and opinions with negativity; just ignore all that. They just don't wanna get taken for a ride, so they temper whatever zeal for collecting they have with pessimism.

 

Both of those guys are predicting a future state of the market. Whether their observations, or that future market state itself, are interpreted as positive or negative is up to you as a reader. For the sake of debate, ignore the hype of other debators and focus on the points they make.

[murph0]

Certain points can only be construed negatively..if I tell you in 15 years everyone will be dead...that may or may not be true but it is certainly a negative point. While mine is a prediction so is others such as when they predict doom and gloom.

 

Brian

[Guest]

Murph,

 

There is a big difference between being pessimistic and realistic. I turned bearish on the Nasdaq at the 4,500 level (after it had peaked at 5,100 - anybody who tells you they picked the exact top is a LIAR) and predicted that eventually it would fall to 1,500 or below. Probably seemed outlandish to most people, as not many people took my advice and, like yourself, held on to losing investments to the tune of 80 to 100% losses.

 

Was my prediction for a decline of 2/3rds or more "pessimistic"? Was it "doom and gloom"? Well, since it happened and was backed up by rigorous analysis, I would say it was realistic, wouldn't you?

 

It's one thing to say "the sky is falling". It's quite another thing to say, "Hey, those dark clouds look ominous - better get an umbrella". You don't have to agree with me, but don't dismiss my arguments. I have a great track record of predicting market moves that most people never see coming, from predicting the collapse of the US dollar in 1994 (which almost nobody else expected) to the collapse of the Nasdaq in 2000.

 

As Donut as suggested, it's better to go through life with your eyes wide open as opposed to having your head buried in the sand.

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

That's my post above, obviously.

 

Gene

[murph0]

Yeah..its QUITE obvious what posts are yours.

 

Brian

[dam60]

Gene, let me throw my two cents in here:

 

"And the higher back issue prices go, the harder it will be to convert the next generation of collectors into hardcore collectors willing to pay those big bucks to buy those older books (let alone attempt to complete entire runs). "

 

I completely agree. Right now I am about 20 issues shy of having a full run of Batman from 200-609 (only missing from pre 264). While I am employed and could afford to drop a few hundred bucks right now and fill the run immediately, I dont' see these issues appreciating noticeably in the future. I still buy about $50 or so a month of back issues including the Bats, but why make the plunge immediately?

 

I truly believe in what has been said on this thread, namely that kids of today aren't going to be as hard core collectors of the silver age books. Therefore, if the market for these books continues to dwindle, who will buy them? It seems to make more sense economically to wait for the prices to decline as the popularity declines.

 

These books aren't going anywhere, as everyone these days hoards everything (unlike my 53 year old father who readily admits to throwing out his own baseball cards) and as the supply remains stable with a decreased demand, the prices are bound to come down.

[FlComicFan]

it would be nice if they did fall but I doubt it. Lower grade stuff probably will stay where it is or maybe even depreciate a little but VF and better (obviously older books) will keep climbing as there is not enough supply to sate even the current people collecting let alone any future entrants to the hobby. Liklely price spreads will widen to some astronomical degreee like NM is equal to 40-50 times good price on 1960 up books

[COI]

If prices on Silver do begin to fall due to lack of new fans, this will not happen for quite a while. And even if there are A LOT less silver collectors, supply on the ultra high grade books(9.2up) is far too low, especially on pre-1966 books. Demand for true NM-toNM/MT books will NEVER be satisfied, unless the entire hobby becomes almost non-existant.

 

What may begin happening is that there will be fewer and fewer people trying to put together high grade runs because of the expense, so the focus will be steered into buying keys and semi-keys. If any serious decline does begin, it probably won't be for at least another 2-3 decades, as there are a lot of 30-somethings collecting silver, and a lot of 20-somethings who want to, and will soon find themselves in a position financially to do so.

[Rival61-migration]

As usual, I see most people missing some real-world dynamic here.

 

It is my position that most collectors eventually DO try and complete full runs. Whether they ever accomplish a lofty goal of FF or ASM is another story all together, but collecting is a process, not a completion. The assumption everyone appears to be making is that a collector will DEMAND 9.2 or better for their runs. Heck, I would love to see my full run of FF all 9.8. Thats an impossible goal, to be sure, but I have managed a full run over the years, and that in itself is an accomplishment. Yes, my FF #1 is beaten, torn, stained, written on, and quite brittle. But I have one. I have a copy of each and every issue of the FF run from 1961 till the end. Now the collecting process revolves around submitting issues to CGC, and upgrading issues when I can find better issues at a price I can afford. So even completing a run is not the end of my activity in collecting.

 

This is the way I see your average collector. It is the collecting over a period of decades to first complete and then improve the series they enjoy. There is no finish line, unless you go for a goal of completing a series that ran for only 10 issues or so (Nova?) in 9.8. But I think you will find that those who collect ASM, FF, avengers, UXM, or any of the other titles with 300+ issues will follow the same pattern. They can ALL be completed within the constraints of a budget if you complete first and upgrade later.

 

Also, upgrading is a nice process where you can recoup a good percentage of your cost by existing investment. I bought FF 72 9.0 for $140.00. I sold my 8.0 for $50.00. When I find the 9.4 I want, I will have the equity of a future sale of my 9.0 to help offset the cost.

 

So I don't see silverage collecting as having any measurable lifespan, at least not in the context of my lifespan.

 

 

[chromium]

I'm in complete agreement here...

My main goal is to complete about 10 Marvel series, half of which have a run of over 400 issues. Once I have them all, I can then start upgrading my favourite issues (cool covers, keys etc....)

This will prolly keep me busy for another 5 years or so , and then I can start over with DC this time

[ericc123]

I know this thread is long dead but I just read it for the first time and wanted to side with Murph0. I am exactly like you man, I'm 22 and spend $200-$1000+ on comics all the time. I buy silver age books which came out 20 years before I was born. Why? Just because I like them. I however don't think people like you and me are the majority. I had a job which I used to buy all of my comics but I don't pay rent, food, tuition ect. ect. (thanks Dad! ) Man Murph0 you and I have alot in common.

 

Eric

[OldSchoolTerry]

I bought silver age books when I was younger, even though I grew up reading comics from the early modern age (1982-1985). I started buying those silver books because they were the beginnings of where the characters I loved came from, and it was cool to see how they used to be drawn, how their stories were written, etc. Of course, I just always also loved holding those old books in my hands.

I think as long as long-time characters endure (Spider-Man, X-Men, and so on, and so on), people will gravitate towards those silver books to some extent, because people will always want to see their humble beginnings (even though those prices on the books may not be humble)....

[justiceleaguer]

Im 27, and i specifically purchase silver age. I dont believe age has anything to do with the investment into silver, or golden age for that matter. Everyones interests are completely different and based upon various encounters with superheroes in their lifetime. For example....someone may have once seen the Atom on some t.v. cartoon or on the cover of a book. Now, that person might be 16 or 60. If they have a more than passing interest in that character theyll probably try to start collecting that characters series. In the Atoms's case, its a silver age series. Voila, youve just seen the birth of a dc silver age collector. The obvious factor in this is money. My brother loves the x-men and collects monthly. Hes only 20 so the cash isnt there to collect silver age x-men at this point. But in 10 yrs when hes pulling in more cash, hes definitely gonna go after the earlier stuff. So, in conclusion its not age that affects a persons interest in silver age its the fact that usually younger ppl dont have the cash to purchase them. I see the next 10-20 yrs as a silver age bonanza, not as a declining area of interest. The skys the limit.

[delekkerste]

He's only 20 so the cash isn't there to collect silver age x-men at this point. But in 10 yrs when hes pulling in more cash, hes definitely gonna go after the earlier stuff.

 

Or maybe he'll grow up and decide that he wants a nice house, car, trophy wife, taking nice vacations and sending the kids to good schools instead, like most normal people?

 

Gene

[justiceleaguer]

Are you trying to say that those of us who grow up to collect comics arent normal people? How old are you again by the way?

[delekkerste]

Are you trying to say that those of us who grow up to collect comics arent normal people?

 

 

How old are you again by the way?

 

What's with all the questions? Don't make me re-post your "CGC Game" thread!!!

 

Gene

[justiceleaguer]

Are you trying to say that those of us who grow up to collect comics arent normal people?

 

 

How old are you again by the way?

 

What's with all the questions? Don't make me re-post your "CGC Game" thread!!!

 

Gene

 

 

OHHH!!!! Thats the way its gonna be eh? Cmon. Do it. I dare ya. Punk.

[PovertyRow]

Are you trying to say that those of us who grow up to collect comics arent normal people?

 

Wait now! Are you trying to say that we ARE????

[OldSchoolTerry]

He's only 20 so the cash isn't there to collect silver age x-men at this point. But in 10 yrs when hes pulling in more cash, hes definitely gonna go after the earlier stuff.

 

Or maybe he'll grow up and decide that he wants a nice house, car, trophy wife, taking nice vacations and sending the kids to good schools instead, like most normal people?

 

Gene

 

Good point, Gene. That's what happened to me, and probably a lot of other people (most of whom wouldn't be posting here, I suppose...).So, instead of going after the high grade, high $$ CGC stuff, I tend to frequent my LCS a lot more, and buy lower grade silver and bronze books that may have some spine stresses, a folded corner, etc., but still look nice, and more importantly, that I can actually read. I'm happy, my wife's happy, and my collection won't ever need to be sold off for some needed funds...