Interesting article about what the next generation will collect

[dekeuk]

So many of you are missing a key point

 

The market (and prices) for high grade books does NOT depend upon the overall number of collectors in the comic collecting hobby.

 

It depends upon the specific number of collectors that want to collect a specific title (or character or genre) in a specific grade (or grades)

 

The price of Hulk #181 in 9.8 does not depend upon whether there is a growing or shrinking number of comic book collectors in future years

 

It will depend upon how many people in future years really really really want a copy of Hulk #181 in 9.8

 

And to say that "everyone on the boards has been collecting at least 15 years" misses a CRITCAL point

 

Take me for example

 

YES I was collecting comics in the 1980s but I was not collecting SLABS

 

I have only been collecting slabs for less than 2 years

 

How many more people out there are former comic collectors who have not yet discovered the "joy" of collecting slabs

 

Some of the Batman 9.8 issues I want from the late 1970's only have 3 or 4 copies on the census.

 

Lets assume there are 10 people that want them, and they cost about $100 each.

 

Now assume another 50 collectors come along in the next 10 years who start collecting Batman 9.8 books. Guess what is going to happen to the price?

 

Up it goes.

 

So you could get rising prices for high grade slabs even as the total number of comic collectors is shrinking dramatically. All it takes is for more former raw collectors from the 1970s and 1980s to start collecting slabs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

All it takes is for more former raw collectors from the 1970s and 1980s to start collecting slabs.

 

The age of encapsulation is almost a decade old. If these collectors haven't jumped on board by now.....what makes you think they'll jump on board in the future?

[Aman619]

So many of you are missing a key point

 

The market (and prices) for high grade books does NOT depend upon the overall number of collectors in the comic collecting hobby.

 

It depends upon the specific number of collectors that want to collect a specific title (or character or genre) in a specific grade (or grades)

 

The price of Hulk #181 in 9.8 does not depend upon whether there is a growing or shrinking number of comic book collectors in future years

 

It will depend upon how many people in future years really really really want a copy of Hulk #181 in 9.8

 

And to say that "everyone on the boards has been collecting at least 15 years" misses a CRITCAL point

 

Take me for example

 

YES I was collecting comics in the 1980s but I was not collecting SLABS

 

I have only been collecting slabs for less than 2 years

 

How many more people out there are former comic collectors who have not yet discovered the "joy" of collecting slabs

 

Some of the Batman 9.8 issues I want from the late 1970's only have 3 or 4 copies on the census.

 

Lets assume there are 10 people that want them, and they cost about $100 each.

 

Now assume another 50 collectors come along in the next 10 years who start collecting Batman 9.8 books. Guess what is going to happen to the price?

 

Up it goes.

 

So you could get rising prices for high grade slabs even as the total number of comic collectors is shrinking dramatically. All it takes is for more former raw collectors from the 1970s and 1980s to start collecting slabs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

is this a good example? By the time you get 50 collectors, the census will have 200 copies. This is a highly collected amassed and preserved era.

[dekeuk]

All it takes is for more former raw collectors from the 1970s and 1980s to start collecting slabs.

 

The age of encapsulation is almost a decade old. If these collectors haven't jumped on board by now.....what makes you think they'll jump on board in the future?

 

The fact that I myself stood on the sidelines and watched other people pay "crazy" prices for a long time.

 

Then I bought one single slab 2 years ago and have not been able to stop buying them ever since.

 

They are more addictive than crack.

 

Or maybe meth is a better comparison, given that the Denver meth guys also liked comics

 

 

 

 

[dekeuk]

 

 

is this a good example? By the time you get 50 collectors, the census will have 200 copies. This is a highly collected amassed and preserved era.

 

 

Yeah, that's what they keep saying ..........

 

In the meantime, I am still waitng for the first Batman #280 in 9.8 to show up on the census, even though other "first 9.8" copies in the 280's run were sold for $300-$400 each.

 

 

[Aman619]

there will be gaps Im sure... but you can bet they're out there... Is it hard to believe 30 guys on the late 70s were anally picking and saving their Batman comics? We have seen colections appear in pristine shape over and over again.

 

I just dont think its wise to bet against the probability of the books filling the census over time for this era.

[dekeuk]

there will be gaps Im sure... but you can bet they're out there... Is it hard to believe 30 guys on the late 70s were anally picking and saving their Batman comics? We have seen colections appear in pristine shape over and over again.

 

I just dont think its wise to bet against the probability of the books filling the census over time for this era.

 

 

DC's were not hoarded in quantity like Marvels, and that includes Batman books

 

And warehouse finds like MH2 were mostly Marvel books I think

 

 

[Vtcomics]

It only takes a handfull of dedicated collectors to prop up the high end market

 

That's exactly why I don't see the high end market being sustainable. Many of the collectors who are propping up the high grade/high end market now got in for pennies on the dollar. Guys like Schmell, Ghost Town and Brulato built their collections when the getting was good. By Ghost Town's own admission, he wouldn't have anything close to the collection he has today if he were starting at current prices.

 

That's my biggest problem with the sustainability of this market. When the dedicated few leave, is there going to be another group with the resources or desire to take the mantle at current prices?

 

 

I agree 100%. It will be interesting to see how the market shakes out in the next 10 years; I suspect there will be some folks losing a ton of dough on this current surge we are experiencing; major keys excepted of course....$14k for a 9.4 GL 76??? You have got be be frigging kidding me.

[MR.COMICBOOK]

Regardless of what the next generation is going to collect, it WON'T be hardcopy comics. The trend towards a paperless society is well on it's way and the next generation will see comics as an archaic artifact that is interesting but not an item to collect.

 

This is actually the biggest challenge for video game collecting as well - the lack of a physical item to stack, box and admire.

 

Services like STEAM and GameTap are growing like mad, and games-demand from XBOX Live are very compelling - I wanted to play Jade Empire (as well as KOTOR 1 and 2), but instead of searching for a used copy, I just paid for the download to my 360 HD. Same with STEAM - I have a comp account and I've been downloading lots of stuff like Monkey Island and Sam & Max, and having a hoot playing them.

 

If this digital gaming trend continues to grow, there won't be any more "boxes" or "cases" to collect.

same with movies now, instead of waiting for the watchmen directors cut on blue-ray for $30 dollars, I watched it instantly on comcast ondemand for like $6.00, times are a changin as someone famous once said.

[Bronty]

Its hard to know how gametap and digital distribution will do. I know there was some worry among nes/snes collectors that digital download on the wii might make cartridge/box copies of the games available for download plumment in price but if anything the opposite has happened and the extra focus on retrogames helped prices.

 

I guess its like reprints in comics - sometimes they hurt prices and sometimes they help.

[VintageComics]

The next generation will collect old forum threads.

 

Mark my words!

 

 

[Bronty]

[Aman619]

there will be gaps Im sure... but you can bet they're out there... Is it hard to believe 30 guys on the late 70s were anally picking and saving their Batman comics? We have seen colections appear in pristine shape over and over again.

 

I just dont think its wise to bet against the probability of the books filling the census over time for this era.

 

 

DC's were not hoarded in quantity like Marvels, and that includes Batman books

 

And warehouse finds like MH2 were mostly Marvel books I think

 

 

I didnt necessarily mean hoarding... Heres what I mean: First we gotta agree how many 9.8s will be too many for these books. I say 50 - 100. So Im saying, how hard is it to believe that of all the thousands of careful collectors (a few thousand being only 1-2% of all collectors) in the late 70s, then 80s, when the idea that comics would attain values and werent any more - - - how hard is it to think that 200 collectors carefully saved their comics? And that half of them, or 25% stayed in 9.8?

 

I say there too high a chance for me to spend any money on them.

 

[bug33fouf]

comics are still on my number one list.

because it is what i consider ART.... (thumbs u

[Bronty]

The next generation will collect old forum threads.

 

Mark my words!

 

 

I'll trade you a pressing thread for a "omg-this-book-went-for-this-much" thread!

[seanfingh]

 

WTTB threads for new ostensibly female members will be the gold standard collectible.

[Bronty]

I couldn't care less about, and know little about, video and role playing games

 

Oddly enough, that doesn't seem to stop you from being so sure about their collectibility. I tend to stay out of discussions when I know little to nothing, or don't care about, the subject at hand.

 

However, my three sons 29, 30 and 31, are heavy into them. But they do not "collect" them. Thye just like to play them and throw them around like they do their car keys.

 

Right, and that's what kids were supposed to do with SA comics.

 

I just don't see them being collected by a large group of people

 

They already are collected by large groups of people. They already are collected by large groups of people. They already are collected by large groups of people. They already are collected by large groups of people. They already are collected by large groups of people. They already are collected by large groups of people. They already are collected by large groups of people. They already are collected by large groups of people.

 

 

I should probably have my head examined for bumping this topic, the discussion has happened several times already. But collecting video games as I do it occurred to me today that there are a large number of games (dozens and dozens) from the 80s and 90s worth four figures in the right condition and even 80s and 90s pieces worth five figures; you just can't say that about comics. Pieces as late as 97 can be worth 4 figs. Doesn't that suggest in at least one way that when it comes to the hearts of twenty something collectors going after their childhood memories, comics have already lost to other collectibles like games and action figures? Food for thought.

 

Sure 80s books were overprinted (beside the point IMO, but I know someone will bring it up) but most 90s books weren't overprinted at all.

[Bronty]

and just so everybody knows, I also talk about comic books on the video game forums