Interesting article about what the next generation will collect

[joe_collector]

But that's just parents trying to find OOP items as gifts for their squalling progeny, and just about the opposite of a true collectible. I know, as around Xmas, I'm scouring EBay for HTF "Once Upon a Time" 15" Disney Princess BNIB dolls (from 2000-2003) like Pocahontas and Mulan, paying upwards of $60 USD a shot.

 

That means absolutely nothing for future collectibility, as the ages are way off. A child's "Golden Years", where their memories are most vivid and nostalgic, are formed between 8-12 years of age, where they are not little kids/toddlers, but still haven't quite hit those teen years. This is mostly a male phenomenon, and it's likely genetic.

 

It all comes down to those special years (8-12) before the loss of innocence, where same-gender friends and socialization are paramount, and the opposite sex is still a bit scary. It's also around the time when students pass from elementary into middle/high school for the first time, marking a drastic change in the social environment and a need to "put away childhood things" and grow up, when in reality, those special childhood items that were lost will be the most cherished once the child grows up.

 

Passing 12 years old in North America is a huge line in the sand, marking the transition (both socially and academically) to a teen. An entire childhood is lost in that change, and later on, they'll pay a lot for someone to sell it back to them.

 

 

[conditionfreak]

I couldn't care less about, and know little about, video and role playing games

 

Oddly enough, that doesn't seem to stop you from being so sure about their collectibility. I tend to stay out of discussions when I know little to nothing, or don't care about, the subject at hand.

 

However, my three sons 29, 30 and 31, are heavy into them. But they do not "collect" them. Thye just like to play them and throw them around like they do their car keys.

 

Right, and that's what kids were supposed to do with SA comics.

 

I just don't see them being collected by a large group of people

 

They already are collected by large groups of people. They already are collected by large groups of people. They already are collected by large groups of people. They already are collected by large groups of people. They already are collected by large groups of people. They already are collected by large groups of people. They already are collected by large groups of people. They already are collected by large groups of people.

 

 

Man. You have a one track mind , don't you?

 

Owning and collecting are two different things. I would explain it to you but I would just have to see your response in print, ten times over.

 

I don't need to eat dog krap, to know that dog krap tastes bad. I couldn't care less about dog krap either, but I know something about where it comes from and where it goes.

 

Kids MAY have done it (throw around their comic books), but it is not what they were SUPPOSED TO DO. Unless their parents were spoons and didn't teach them to take care of their possessions. Mine did. Twelve cents was a lot of money to just walk on, back in the SA. At least in my family. Maybe you were well off and spoiled a little.

.

[conditionfreak]

Videogames sales have surpassed movie sales, videogames are not just a niche anymore but a way of life. similar to when 20 years ago when people considered cable tv,air conditioners and cellphones a luxury, those same people would now consider those things necessities, times,people and ideals change.

 

Good point. Maybe the Captain and the Rock have some neighbors that are collectors of air conditioners and cable TV boxes.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I can't WAIT for the day when I'll be able to buy my Tec #27 for $5...

 

YAY!

 

A common refrain...

 

But you sure as hell won't be, happily, hoarding "common" issues while you're buying all those grails. Limited collectors will sink all comics. Leaving collections as being more valuable as pet liners than collectibles...

 

Jim

 

I was, of course, kidding, BUT...you raise a good point that I will happily answer...

 

I have collected such that, even if the value of my collection were to drop to zero tomorrow, I would still be quite happy with what I own.

 

As far as making the money back, I'm currently on track to exceed all the money I've put into the hobby in the last 20 years in about 3 years, so everything else is, literally, free.

 

Besides...if everything went to utter hell, after we picked up the pieces, if we could even be bothered with funny books, the joy and delight I would have at being able to buy formerly many thousand dollar books...again, if possible....for next to nothing would far outweigh my dismay at having my collection be worth nothing.

 

I am, at heart, a collector's collector.

[joe_collector]

Kids MAY have done it (throw around their comic books), but it is not what they were SUPPOSED TO DO. Unless their parents were spoons and didn't teach them to take care of their possessions. Mine did. Twelve cents was a lot of money to just walk on, back in the SA. At least in my family. Maybe you were well off and spoiled a little.

 

Wow, you must have grown up in another planet or something, as back when I was a kid, comics were like newspapers - viewed as totally disposable by parents and kids were constantly on the lookout for mothers trying to toss their prized funny books in the trash.

 

Trust me on this, your "must protect and care for the funny books at all costs" family values were NOT the norm, or even close to it.

[joe_collector]

the joy and delight I would have at being able to buy formerly many thousand dollar books...again, if possible....for next to nothing would far outweigh my dismay at having my collection be worth nothing.

 

Why do people on here always talk in absolutes?

 

We all know that high-grade vintage comics will never be worth "next to nothing", and it'll be more along the lines of a drop of value in the 30-50% range. So a hypothetical situation would be for a Hulk 181 9.8 selling for $22K today would be available for $14K - would you buy it then? How about a CGC 9.6 GL/GA for $20K?

 

That kind of drop would kill the speculator market, but I really do hope that people on here are smart enough to realize (and not to repeat on here) this "I can hardly wait to buy XXXXX incredibly-valuable comic for pennies when the crash hits!!!" stupidity.

[homerwannabee]

the joy and delight I would have at being able to buy formerly many thousand dollar books...again, if possible....for next to nothing would far outweigh my dismay at having my collection be worth nothing.

 

Why do people on here always talk in absolutes?

 

We all know that high-grade vintage comics will never be worth "next to nothing", and it'll be more along the lines of a drop of value in the 30-50% range. So a hypothetical situation would be for a Hulk 181 9.8 selling for $22K today would be available for $14K - would you buy it then? How about a CGC 9.6 GL/GA for $20K?

 

That kind of drop would kill the speculator market, but I really do hope that people on here are smart enough to realize (and not to repeat on here) this "I can hardly wait to buy XXXXX incredibly-valuable comic for pennies when the crash hits!!!" stupidity.

 

In the past couple of days I have seen you say that the crash won't happen for another 20 years, and that it will only be 30 to 50 percent when it does happen. If this is the case, why have you done so much crowing about the coming crash the last few years? Really, why talk about it so much? Of course any market will eventually go down 30 to 50 percent. Everything is cyclical. Even the stock market went lower than 50 percent. So there really is no solid investment when you think about it.

 

You know what? The next time you start with your sky is going to fall on the comic market attitude, I will remind everyone what the sky falling is to you. A 30 to 50 percent drop in comic values that will not happen for another 20 years.

[october]

the joy and delight I would have at being able to buy formerly many thousand dollar books...again, if possible....for next to nothing would far outweigh my dismay at having my collection be worth nothing.

 

Why do people on here always talk in absolutes?

 

We all know that high-grade vintage comics will never be worth "next to nothing", and it'll be more along the lines of a drop of value in the 30-50% range. So a hypothetical situation would be for a Hulk 181 9.8 selling for $22K today would be available for $14K - would you buy it then? How about a CGC 9.6 GL/GA for $20K?

 

That kind of drop would kill the speculator market, but I really do hope that people on here are smart enough to realize (and not to repeat on here) this "I can hardly wait to buy XXXXX incredibly-valuable comic for pennies when the crash hits!!!" stupidity.

 

Exactly *how* much books will drop once the crash hits is an interesting question. Looking at baseball cards and other shrinking hobbies, certain things have held their value, certain things have dropped like a stone. Pristine examples of desireable post-1970 items have generally held their value or increased, so a 9.8 Hulk 181 or 9.6 GL 76 will not likely experience large dropoffs, even at current prices.

 

On the other hand, 8.0-9.0 copies of those same books probably will. It only takes a handfull of dedicated collectors to prop up the high end market, while the collecting base for something far more common (like an 8.0 Hulk 181) has to be exponentially larger. It's why top graded rookie cards from the 70s and 80s still fetch good (sometimes stupid) money, while the lesser graded versions of the same card are in the toilet.

 

[AtlasFan]

True or False...There are more people collecting comics now than ever before?

 

I believe the answer is True...therefore, all this talk about comics not being a viable collectible in the next 20 years is just a bunch of Kentucky Windage...

 

The only thing that would cause a massive decrease in the value of comics (short of an atomic war or global depression) would be if there were huge warehouse finds of books in pristine condition.

 

Overall, the trend for the value of collectible GA & SA comics over the last 40 years has been a steady incline. I don't see any evidence here to the contrary.

Bill

[conditionfreak]

Kids MAY have done it (throw around their comic books), but it is not what they were SUPPOSED TO DO. Unless their parents were spoons and didn't teach them to take care of their possessions. Mine did. Twelve cents was a lot of money to just walk on, back in the SA. At least in my family. Maybe you were well off and spoiled a little.

 

Wow, you must have grown up in another planet or something, as back when I was a kid, comics were like newspapers - viewed as totally disposable by parents and kids were constantly on the lookout for mothers trying to toss their prized funny books in the trash.

 

Trust me on this, your "must protect and care for the funny books at all costs" family values were NOT the norm, or even close to it.

 

Spoken like a "later generation" kid.

 

Unless you were alive in the early fifties, you just don't have the first hand knowledge to comment as you do. I also love it when you put comments in quatation marks, that were never said. ( "must protect and care for the funny books at all costs"). It is misleading and an over attempt at winning a debate with lies and distortions. Quote correctly or don't wuote at all. Even if it is not a quote, and the quotation marks were used in another manner, I never said anything close to that. It is an exageration at best.

 

Maybe you could read a book or two and get a general idea though. I suggest "The Greatest Generation" for a start. A little before my time, but it set the tone and was carried through, my time.

 

We used to have drills in school, in case of a nuclear attack. We were told to stay seated in our desks and bend over, putting our heads between our legs.

 

Now, think about that for a moment.............Later when we got older, we used to make the joke that the purpose for bending over and putting our heads between our legs, was to kiss are azz goodbye.

 

I comment thusly, because it was a different time and a different outlook on life and possessions. Much much different than the early sixties.

 

But, those of us raised under those old fashion notions, continued right through the hippies, Woodstock and free love era, to take care of our possessions and teach our kids the same. In the 80's when my kids did not put their toys away, or intentionally dismantled them because of boredom or whatever, I would take their toys away and put them in a bag in the attic and they would receive them the next Christmas.

 

I am not saying that I was normal and not weird. I am saying that it was how I was raised. You did not pay money for something and then trash it. Not even a newspaper. It could be used for so many other things after it was read. I don't even to this day. We come from different perspectives and life experiences.

 

So, unless you were alive in the fifties and sixties, how can you make forceful comments on how society was at that time? Is it just because you know everything and your intellect is just too awesome to not pass around and share with us common folk?

 

Oh. P.S. I truly believe you ARE from another planet. Most here do. We agree on that at least. We also apparently agree that RockMyAzz makes some stupid comments now and then.

 

Don't we all. (except you J.C.)

[Bronty]

True or False...There are more people collecting comics now than ever before?

 

I believe the answer is True...therefore, all this talk about comics not being a viable collectible in the next 20 years is just a bunch of Kentucky Windage...

 

I think that more money is being spent in the hobby than ever before, but I certainly believe there were way more collectors 20 years ago.

 

I will grant there were probably fewer collectors than now 12 or so years ago when things were really in the pits; movies and the like having brought some (but far from all) of the old collectors back.

 

Virtually everybody on this board has 15+ years collecting comics. That alone is a pretty good indicator.

[COI]

It only takes a handfull of dedicated collectors to prop up the high end market

 

That's exactly why I don't see the high end market being sustainable. Many of the collectors who are propping up the high grade/high end market now got in for pennies on the dollar. Guys like Schmell, Ghost Town and Brulato built their collections when the getting was good. By Ghost Town's own admission, he wouldn't have anything close to the collection he has today if he were starting at current prices.

 

That's my biggest problem with the sustainability of this market. When the dedicated few leave, is there going to be another group with the resources or desire to take the mantle at current prices?

 

 

[Marvelfangirl]

Todays young collectors (1) collect the things with which they played and grew up and (2) are influenced by decorating and media trends.

 

 

I guess cell phones and ipods will be the big collectibles then......

Dude that sucks big time

[october]

It only takes a handfull of dedicated collectors to prop up the high end market

 

That's exactly why I don't see the high end market being sustainable. Many of the collectors who are propping up the high grade/high end market now got in for pennies on the dollar. Guys like Schmell, Ghost Town and Brulato built their collections when the getting was good. By Ghost Town's own admission, he wouldn't have anything close to the collection he has today if he were starting at current prices.

 

That's my biggest problem with the sustainability of this market. When the dedicated few leave, is there going to be another group with the resources or desire to take the mantle at current prices?

 

 

I said highest graded "desireable post-1970 items" (ie keys), not highest graded anything. 99% of their runs will be devalued come crash time. I agree that once they are gone, their won't be anyone to take their place buying a 9.8 run-of-the-mill ASM issue for 25x guide. Will there be someone to take their place on top census ASM 1, 14, 121, 122, 129? I think so.

[VintageComics]

It only takes a handfull of dedicated collectors to prop up the high end market

 

That's exactly why I don't see the high end market being sustainable. Many of the collectors who are propping up the high grade/high end market now got in for pennies on the dollar. Guys like Schmell, Ghost Town and Brulato built their collections when the getting was good. By Ghost Town's own admission, he wouldn't have anything close to the collection he has today if he were starting at current prices.

 

That's my biggest problem with the sustainability of this market. When the dedicated few leave, is there going to be another group with the resources or desire to take the mantle at current prices?

 

 

I said highest graded "desireable post-1970 items" (ie keys), not highest graded anything. 99% of their runs will be devalued come crash time. I agree that once they are gone, their won't be anyone to take their place buying a 9.8 run-of-the-mill ASM issue for 25x guide. Will there be someone to take their place on top census ASM 1, 14, 121, 122, 129? I think so.

 

The only problem with this arguement is that you assume that there will not be any new collectors coming into the market and there are. Every day. Some with deep pockets and some with shallow pockets...either way there is always new blood.

[october]

It only takes a handfull of dedicated collectors to prop up the high end market

 

That's exactly why I don't see the high end market being sustainable. Many of the collectors who are propping up the high grade/high end market now got in for pennies on the dollar. Guys like Schmell, Ghost Town and Brulato built their collections when the getting was good. By Ghost Town's own admission, he wouldn't have anything close to the collection he has today if he were starting at current prices.

 

That's my biggest problem with the sustainability of this market. When the dedicated few leave, is there going to be another group with the resources or desire to take the mantle at current prices?

 

 

I said highest graded "desireable post-1970 items" (ie keys), not highest graded anything. 99% of their runs will be devalued come crash time. I agree that once they are gone, their won't be anyone to take their place buying a 9.8 run-of-the-mill ASM issue for 25x guide. Will there be someone to take their place on top census ASM 1, 14, 121, 122, 129? I think so.

 

The only problem with this arguement is that you assume that there will not be any new collectors coming into the market and there are. Every day. Some with deep pockets and some with shallow pockets...either way there is always new blood.

 

As per my first post, I am speaking hypothetically about what will happen if there is a crash, not what WILL happen.

[VintageComics]

(thumbs u

 

My understanding is that some of these big buyers are relatively new to buying but not new to the hobby...ie they have friends within the hobby.

 

I spoke to a few dealers about this too. They have also mentioned that at cons they see tons of new faces becoming repeat customers.

 

I found it to be encouraging news...or at least not as discouraging as the stuff we usually talk about.

 

R.

 

 

[ChemEng]

People even collect old NES systems and early personal computers. Sure, the next generation won't care about NES games, but my generation has a lot of good memories, and we have money now to invest in those memories.

[COI]

It only takes a handfull of dedicated collectors to prop up the high end market

 

That's exactly why I don't see the high end market being sustainable. Many of the collectors who are propping up the high grade/high end market now got in for pennies on the dollar. Guys like Schmell, Ghost Town and Brulato built their collections when the getting was good. By Ghost Town's own admission, he wouldn't have anything close to the collection he has today if he were starting at current prices.

 

That's my biggest problem with the sustainability of this market. When the dedicated few leave, is there going to be another group with the resources or desire to take the mantle at current prices?

 

 

I said highest graded "desireable post-1970 items" (ie keys), not highest graded anything. 99% of their runs will be devalued come crash time. I agree that once they are gone, their won't be anyone to take their place buying a 9.8 run-of-the-mill ASM issue for 25x guide. Will there be someone to take their place on top census ASM 1, 14, 121, 122, 129? I think so.

 

I understood your original post. I was adding to it, not disagreeing with it.

[VintageComics]

People even collect old NES systems and early personal computers. Sure, the next generation won't care about NES games, but my generation has a lot of good memories, and we have money now to invest in those memories.

 

That seems to be the driving force. Money that people did not have when they were younger.

 

(thumbs u