Official Market Crash Thread: Part Two!

[comicinvestor-migration]

I don't know about anyone else, but the prices being paid for CGC 9.8 Bronze are beginning to get scary. Add in the huge drop on CGC 9.4 issues and I'm thinking we're about primed for a major melt-down.

 

I'm sure everyone is familiar with the "evolution of a graded commodity" checklist I've posted before, and it looks like we're currently knee-deep in the final stage. I'm not bragging mind you, just a bit disappointed that we've come this far, this fast. I love the hobby, and no matter how negative I may seem on here, I do not look forward to the pain that will follow.

 

On a more light-hearted note, we've all had a few laughs at Scottish's expense, but his recent CGC Blow-Out may be heralded as one of the smartest and best-timed moves yet!

[keithdagen]

CI,

 

If the market crash happens and follows the coin crash, you'll get a long period where the market slowly recovers. During that time, you get to see which books are REALLY rare as the populations have time to mature, and astute collectors can grab some nice bargains while the prices are hammered down too far on the truly rare issues.

[comicinvestor-migration]

Sure, but as you now, a large percentage of these books will never, ever come back.

[keithdagen]

You're correct. But, when you see a book printed in the last 3 or 4 years in 9.8 selling for $1,000 just because it's the only one, you can't expect to see that same price when there's 30 in that grade.

[murph0]

Also just b/c one sub-section of a market is collapsing doesn't mean it all is. You may say once one part starts it all goes, but that isn't always true. Take real estate for example, it didn't recess like most everything else did in the past couple years. Also, why are we doing this again..this topic has been beaten to death..hopefully this one will be VERY short-lived or I guess I'll just have to take a vacation from the msg board like I did last time

 

Brian

[scottish]

And my ASM 129 9.4 just went for the BIN price of 725.00. Brian chock that one up on the profit side would ya?

 

Seriously, I'm not selling this big a chunck just because I think the market is tanking...I seem to always become 'sell crazy' right before Thanksgiving every year.

 

Must enjoy the frickin' lines at the PO!

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

I guess I'll just have to take a vacation from the msg board like I did last time

 

Aw, come on Murph0, CI just wants a spirited debate, you can always pass this thread up if it disturbs you, it won't be the only one on the board. Start a new topic on something you want to discuss, you're not the only one interested in Spider-Man comics ya know? Surely you are not that upset after such a great response in the thread that you started last night.

 

Hey CI, I don't see anything wrong with trying to predict the future of the market based on past and current market conditions. Can you provide a list of resources of Comic Book Market information, and or provide a link to some information so we can all read it and rejoice or weep or like me shrug my shoulders? I think it can be an interesting topic when discussed with the COMPLETE picture in mind. Some people are gonna loose money, and some are gonna make money, that is my summary of the Comic Book Market. I like to read comics and I buy them raw and dirt cheap, so I for one am not sweating bullets one bit

 

I must admit, It can be tricky to read a CGC slabbed book though

[comicinvestor-migration]

Trust me on this Scottish, you are going to go down as one of the true market geniuses, no matter if you intended to or not. I predicted that once things got crazy on CGC 9.8 issues (and they have without a shadow of a doubt) then we're only a short step away from a major melt-down.

 

If people understood the real reasons for a boom/bust phenomenon, the signs of impending doom would be as clear as day. You may say you think the market is healthy Scottish, but I know a part of you realizes this is a great time to sell.

 

I'm a collector who buys low with virtually no risk (outside of the Posties), but I certainly wouldn't want to be sitting on stacks of CGC 9.6-9.8 comics that I paid 20X Guide for and expected to turn a quick profit on.

[murph0]

I'll worry when ASM 9.4's pre-100 hit 100 dollars..what the hell?? Worry?? I'd love for them to hit 100..bring it on!

 

Brian

[comicinvestor-migration]

Can you provide a list of resources of Comic Book Market information, and or provide a link to some information so we can all read it and rejoice or weep or like me shrug my shoulders?

 

You're making the same error that the majority of people on here do, comparing high-end, ultra-high grade CGC purchases to comic collecting.

 

CGC comics are a graded commodity, like graded coins and sportscards, and are destined to follow the same path, since it is/was the exact same money that drove each of these up to insane heights, and then down to the dirt.

 

One thing you have to realize about this kind of money is that it usually comes on it huge waves, yet is highly transitory and crazy as a house rat.

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

I'm a collector who buys low with virtually no risk (outside of the Posties), but I certainly wouldn't want to be sitting on stacks of CGC 9.6-9.8 comics that I paid 20X Guide for and expected to turn a quick profit on.

 

I hear ya, and I agree especially in the context of 20x Guide. However in a different context would you RIGHT NOW pay 1-2x guide for an Amazing Fantasy 15 in CGC 9.4 condition?

[murph0]

So then..we're just talking about graded books..not raw stuff...so since raw ASM's in NM are already hitting well above 100 dollars, I won't get to see them hit the 100 dollars mark? DAMN

 

Brian

[comicinvestor-migration]

I'll worry when ASM 9.4's pre-100 hit 100 dollars..what the hell?? Worry?? I'd love for them to hit 100..bring it on!

 

You know what's funny murph? When prices do hit this level (at least for non-keys) you probably won't have any interest in collecting them.

 

I remember bringing up the inevitability of a crash and people saying the exact same thing about Fish Police, Elementals, Valiants, Punisher Ltd, New Mutants, etc., etc. "Man, I can hardly wait for them to go down in price...", but when the market moved away from these comics onto something else, their interest quickly faded.

 

It's an interesting phenomenon, this herd mentality.

[scottish]

I don't doubt I made a decent move. I'm just saying I didn't decide to sell the bunch because I think the market is going to hell. If that was true the high grade Adams GLs I have would be up there with the rest. Though I'm such a Green Arrow freak I probably wouldn't care if they weren't worth spit.

 

I partly believe in what you say CI. The prices on eBay have certainly dropped significantly from earlier this year. Sadly I can't count on one hand the number of books I've sold for more (or even equal) than I bought them for. (Two isn't it Brian? ).

 

I'll seriously question a market crash if the Qualified Hulk sells for more than 650.00.

[murph0]

Trust me..I would love for them to hit 100 dollars..I've been there when they were before and have no doubt that they're worth at LEAST that much to me.

 

Brian

[comicinvestor-migration]

I hear ya, and I agree especially in the context of 20x Guide. However in a different context would you RIGHT NOW pay 1-2x guide for an Amazing Fantasy 15 in CGC 9.4 condition?

 

That's a non-issue, unless you qualified it by saying I couldn't sell it for 2 years minimum. Than I'd have to say NO, since I have absolutely no faith in the comic industry allowing back issue prices to increase in the future.

 

We're dinosaurs, and the world has passed us by.

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

CI, you did everything but answer my question, so I'll ask it again. Can you provide a list of resources of Comic Book Market information, and or provide a link to some information so we can all read it and rejoice or weep or like me shrug my shoulders? GIVE US SOME COLD HARD EVIDENCE, not a few links to eBay auctions. I know that you are concentrating on the CGC PORTION of the comic book market, I was merely explaining in plain terms that I have yet to participate in the CGC portion of the comic book market, hence I buy raw comics, at dirt cheap prices. I have thought about purchasing a few CGC books, and IF I do, I seriously doubt I will pay more than current OverStreet guide price given that my boundries are Bronze/Modern Age books, and that I cannot afford to purchase any high end Golden Age/Silver Age books, not even for "flipping" purposes.

[Guest]

murph0, with 3135 posts, will be taking a break from the boards.

[murph0]

I'd have 4,000 if you people hadn't gone off into that "let's bash Meth and talk about how terrible the comic market will become"

 

Brian

[comicinvestor-migration]

I don't know what you're looking for? A paint-by-numbers picture of the future, where CGC collectors are tossing their 9.8 books in the fireplace to keep warm?

 

If so, then it doesn't exist, the same way there was no 100% HARD EVIDENCE that the NASDAQ would melt-down, though many extremely intelligent people predicted it. Smart people can see the signs, apply historical perspective and make pretty fair assessments on the future.

 

If you're looking iron-clad guarantees, then you'd better get to work on your time machine.