Official Market Crash Thread: Part Two!

[FlComicFan]

well there is some truth to what you say but likely there reason you dont see more of these issues versus the #1's and keys is simply not many are willing to pay $45 to slab a book that guides for less than what the slab fee is. There is not much point in sending a Captain Marvel 16 in unless you feel its a lock to get a 9.6 or better. Because of that its kind of hard to tell just how many copies are out there. Kind of the same thing with a lot of Golden Age books as few are sending in anything other than extremely expensive books or books that have a chance of grading at least VF as it really isnt economically feasible. The few Golden Age books I bought slab were all between vg to vf- and I bought all for significantly less than guide not counting the money the sellers spent to have them slabbed so I can readily see that it doesnt pay to do it. I have a bunch of Gold books but likely will never send any in with exception to those I might feel I could use a second opinion on as far as retsoration that I want to hold for good. Nice thing is 9.0 and 9.2 while still being great looking books are getting cheaper and cheaper. When I can buy a 9.2 in silver and bronze from my wantlist at guide I'll be buying them up till then I'll hold my cash for great deals on Gold books I can hold for the next 20+ years. Chet.

[Guest]

I think we are reaching a "break-point" for speculator favorites. The saturation of so-called key issues are causing a much more fluid dynamic in sales as they are circulated from speculator to speculator, and only a small percentage of them are being removed from the pool to actual collections. The influx of more slabbed copies in high grade continues far outstipping actual collector demand. There really is only one predictable outcome.

 

I'd agree with this, and the best way to avoid getting burnt is to buy one copy if you like the series, and none if you don't.

 

Other issues in a series are often nearly impossible to locate in high CGC grades. Most dealers will tell you they are not rare, or difficult to obtain raw. There is a serious problem with this however. They are beginning to show up in the last year on the CGC census, but they have NOT been showing up for auction or at shows. The only CGC non-keys we have been seeing are in the lesser grades, from 8.0 to 9.2. This is presumably caused by collectors, not speculators. They are upgrading their collections, and the 9.8's just are not going to be changing hands. I refer anyone with questions to current e-bay prices for high grade slabbed silverage Silver Surfers. I see this as a model for the future, when CGC population numbers have increased dramaticly.Whereas CM #1 9.8 may go for 10X guide, a 9.8 of a "common" issue can demand upwards of 20X, and often does.

 

Yeah, I see this happening as well. The perfectionist collectors will/ are assembling runs and competition for HG books in these runs may get fierce. This will only be for 9.8s in the Bronze age (perhaps selected 9.6s) however, and the 9.4s/9.6s should gradually assume prices reflective of supply in these grades.

[clobberintime]

I had sworn off these chicken litle threads but without Meth and Crusty I am actually a little bored. So I guess I will do my best to ruffle some feathers here. The more i thought about this alleged crash or downturn, the more I have realized that the people putting forth such an argument really have no clue. they are basing their economic theories on other markets, other collectibles or the last 3 years. That is right - take it back to ground zero. any of you doomsdayers collect comics prior to cgc or buy comics other than on the net? Prior to cgc the only books bringing any sort of over guide prices were the known pedigrees as far as i can remember - and sometimes really special key books with the big dealers like metro or motor city who did a good pitch job on rarity and keyness. Were new books or books from 1970 to 1990 selling at any sort of multiple or percentage over guide? No - hell most of them would not bring guide no matter what shape they were in. what you saw in the early 90s were the flash in the pan hot new books that were manufactured collectibles that fizzled as fast as they went up. For all the problems with cgc, it has definitely provided an incredible spark to the market at all grade levels. I think getting any money above the Overstreet price by guide is terrific - or just getting the guide price. The price percentages for books above 9.0 is arbitrary - there is no real formula although folks try to do so. After just 3 years of using this grading and slabbing stuff, how can anyone with a straight face say there is a crash? Heck i would say that the market has not even yet been fully established. How many stores you go to and see CGC slabs? And the vast majority of books at shows are still raw. This thing has a long way to go.

[murph0]

I thought I might point out that long before CGC, Comic-keys was getting really high prices for his ungraded books..usually above guide..it's too bad he can't post here to comment on how much he was getting but in some cases, it was multiples of guide.

 

Brian

[clobberintime]

Yeah -like i said some people were able to on certain books. I was around ebay then also. I don't remember him selling any 9.6 bronze books. Do you? And i don't remember 6 or 8 times guide and i have a very good memory. He has always specialized in silver and gold high grade "unrestored". Why don't you email him a bout it? I have his email address - maybe you can get on his email list too.

[murph0]

I have his email as well. Doubtful he ever got 6 to 8 times guide..he did only do silver as far as I remember...what he did get however was about 200 dollars for ASM's pre-100 when a lot of them were getting no more then 50 dollars..so in essence he was getting 4 times "regular" price for his. I remember him selling specifically some ASMs in the range of 60-75 and getting around 300 dollars for them which was discussed on marketplace newsgroup and tons of ppl thought that those prices he was getting were "ridiculous" and bound to come down. So it was going on before CGC came around. However, it sounds like it may not have been going on in bronze..unless someone has an example?

 

Brian

[Guest]

I get what you are saying Doc. This is MY point of view. The books I send in to be graded are books that not a lot of people are looking for. I have my GI Joes in the 10 and up to about 30 graded because I WANT THEM GRADED FOR ME! Simple...I dont care if I ever sell them. I dont care about the end of the comic universe as we know it,doom and gloom, dilema. Each person will have to figure it out for themselves. Some will figure it out NOW and some will lose their shirts in the end, but thats just the nature of people. I wont send in my Joes unless I KNOW they will grade a 9.6 or above. Im very good at grading comics and ive figured out by closely studying CGCs grading habits, how they grade to a degree. I know all about the sportscard markets grading fiascoes. I was once a grader for a company I will choose to keep anonymous and I know all about the problems that will face comic books in the months and years to come. The biggest problem is the numerous "fly by night" companies that are saturating the market with poorly graded cards. If you see other "competetive" comic grading companies start to show up then were all in trouble! D-

[FlyingDonut]

Answer this simple question:

 

Are prices on CGC 9.6 graded, "non-key", post-1966, "common" (i.e. Amazing Spider-Man 117) going up or going down?

 

All the other pontificating around this issue is irrelevant. Answer this question.

[Rival61-migration]

Up, up and away. 9.6 trade for high multiples of guide, when they are available. Look at the recent sale of Fantastic Four 124, completely non-key, CGC 9.6 for a whopping $265.00, and tell me collectors are not trying to fill in and upgrade runs. If you have common issues that can grade 9.6 the profit is there to slab them. Most of these are either in the hands of collectors or were long ago delegated to reading stock. Bronze CGC in high grades bid wildly on ebay. I picked up a CGC 9.8 Captain Marvel (1968) #8 for $112.00 and counted myself as lucky. The same dealer got Nearly $300.00 (10X guide) for a 9.8 #5. They just don't show up enough to keep up with collector demand. Even a 9.6 #6 pulled down nearly $200.00!!! But 9.4 is the definite cut-off. I picked up a 9.0 mile high II #6 for $28.00.

 

I am no expert on Spiderman prices, but these other bronze series are pulling down some serious cash for high grade common bronze issues.

[FlComicFan]

well you guys sort of make the same point. Before CGC multiples of guide was a rare occurence left for pedigrees, unique books etc. I can mostly agree with that but seriously strict NM silver/bronze always brought a premium. Books did sell for premiums on Ebay before CGC in strict NM where the sellers were known to grade very strictly (few and far between). Now with CGC three years later high grade slabbed NM Bronze/Silver books go for serious multiples of guide. So....... were these books undervalued before or is this a completely new market . Really no doubt its a completely new market which places little if any relevance on Overstreet pricing only question is will the values hold, increase, or drop. All I'm saying is when the fever/latest new trend/ subsides these prices should come back down to closer to the NM prices in Overstreet. Hobbies tend to have trends will this one last or will it be a blip longterm? I dont mean to beat a dead horse just looking for a logical reason why the same books I was buying for guide 3 years ago raw now are priced at 4-8 times guide slabbed. Granted the third party grading and the resto check and the census are all nice things that are positive for the hobby but the sudden price increase feels like carefully manipulated hype.

[murph0]

Most of the bronze books trying to be sold in the ASM series in 9.6 are the same ones. And there's plenty of them, thus the lower prices for 9.6 in bronze ASM at least.

 

Brian

[delekkerste]

Okay, I've given in to the fact there is a noticeable slump on all but 9.6 and higher graded comics and "hot" keys. How much of this really has to do with the economy, and how much has to do with every other possible reason?

 

I would say:

 

1/4 of my argument has been based on the "evolution of graded collectibles" theory that CI proposes

 

1/4 has been predicated on my forecast for a prolonged economic slump and global deflation

 

1/4 has been because, as a finance professional and obsessive market historian, I know what a speculative bubble and its aftermath looks like

 

1/4 has been based on the extremely negative fundamentals/demographics for the comic collecting hobby

 

An economic rebound will certainly help the market, but probably only in the short and possibly medium-term. Longer-term, as many have eloquently argued, the fundamentals for this hobby are terrible.

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

That is right - take it back to ground zero. any of you doomsdayers collect comics prior to cgc or buy comics other than on the net?

 

Clobberin', for the record, I'm NOT one of the 20-something college kids on this Board who were weaned on McFarlane Spideys and started collecting in the 1990s (not that there is anything wrong with that!) In addition to my other credentials, I'm also a 20-year veteran of collecting.

 

I think Flying Donut has been the voice of reason here. He deals in raw books and has been tracking CGC books closely and has been very frank and forthright about his observations. He has no agenda to bring down the market and he speaks as he does despite his vested interest. I don't see what *rational* person can strongly disagree with most of his conclusions.

 

As for you, Scottish, it's great to be an optimistic person. But there is no place for optimism when it comes to markets, because the market simply doesn't care. I'd much rather be realistic with a full bank account than optimistic and holding worthless stocks and comics I way overpaid for. If you ever meet me, you'll see that I'm not a scowling curmudgeon. Quite the opposite. It's easy to be happy when you know you're nobody's fool and nobody's b**ch!

 

Gene

[Guest]

Donut,

 

Are prices on CGC 9.6 graded, "non-key", post-1966, "common" (i.e. Amazing Spider-Man 117) going up or going down?

 

I'll bite. DOWN. At least to my perception. As I posted before, I'll get a flow chart of the past 8-10 months of CBG sales ratios. We'll see if a systematic sampling holds this up.

 

I'll alos end this post with a simple question:

 

Is post 1966 CGC 9.6 common/non-key representative of the CGC market as a whole? Yes or no. (i.e. if prices of these books are lower, can we infer a CGC crash?)

[fantastic_four]

Comic-keys didn't start selling on E-Bay until sometime in 2000, which was after CGC started up. He pointed that out to you himself in another thread when you used him as an example of pre-CGC sales.

 

Paying multiples of guide, however, definitely isn't a new concept. I started a thread about 4-5 months ago solely about the topic of how long people have been doing it. I postulated that it started when Chuck Rozanski charged multiples for the Mile Highs, but several Golden Age collectors pointed out in that thread that people were paying multiples as early as the 1960s; someone pointed out especially how old Barks Disney comics sold for multiples back then.

 

Bottom line--if the books are truly NM or better, then historically, those books have demanded multiples when sold by sellers who high-grade buyers trust. The majority of dealers grade 8.0 to 9.0 books as NM, which is why the multiples phenomenon exists. Overstreet can't usually tell when his advisors are overgrading, which is why his Guide is often thrown out the window on true NM and the truly high-grade books have sold for premiums. This is particularly true for Gold, Silver, and many Bronze books, although due to the greater supply I haven't seen it as a widespread trend on Modern books until CGC came out. And as everybody is noticing, the CGC Modern market is returning to earth with the exception of 9.8 and above.

[Guest]

1/4 has been based on the extremely negative fundamentals/demographics for the comic collecting hobby

 

Gene, if you want me to cast off my optimism, this is the point that tends to do it. If we don't bring in new blood, all our treasured books will be buried with us. The hobby is aging, and without younger collectors, our numbers will dwindle.

[fantastic_four]

Longer-term, as many have eloquently argued, the fundamentals for this hobby are terrible.

Longer term being roughly how long?

[FlyingDonut]

Is post 1966 CGC 9.6 common/non-key representative of the CGC market as a whole? Yes or no. (i.e. if prices of these books are lower, can we infer a CGC crash?)

 

Sorry to be wishy-washy, but the answer is yes and no. What has happened is that everybody sent in their books and hoped for the big pop, which initally happened. Now, as the market is settling back to reality, the books that sold for significant multiples of Guide have dropped dramatically, on both Bronze and Silver. Gold has not dropped, and I don't think it will.

 

Please note that what has not dropped, and, which I believe (unlike both CI and delekkerste) will not drop in price, are post-1966 "keys", both Bronze and Silver. Recent sales of Bronze "keys" on eBay are bearing this out - note sales on ASM 129, Giant Size X-Men 1 and others, for example.

 

I think the term "crash" is the one that gets everybody's blood boiling. What has happened is the bubble burst and valuations of products are going back to what they historically have been.

[scottish]

And on the flipside, I don't care about the market(s). I do NOT invest in stocks (at least right now). I'm buying comics that I want to read regardless of value. This is evident by the big sale I'm having now on ebay.

 

It's also easy to be happy when you're not worrying about money as the bottom line. I'm not saying I'd scoff at winning the lottery or being financially stable for the rest of my life. I have enough money to keep my family fed, sheltered and some extras. Being able to buy anything you want kind of takes the fun out it.

 

And positive thinking isn't just about finances. I was speaking more toward the world view and life in general. If you're out of work, but believe you'll find a job soon it's more likely to happen than if you sit at home and think how screwed up the economy is or that we will go to war with Iraq or the country will self-destruct due to deflation, terrorist plots or what ever...jeez why in the hell would one get up in the morning if all that kept flying about in your thoughts?

 

I respect your opinion Gene and believe you (and 99% of others on here) to be intelligent and knowledgeable about what they speak of. I will, however, remain the optimist and truly believe there will be no war with Irag, no deflation or economic destruction and that the comic industry will remain at least stable. I would say that some point in the future you can say, "I told you so," but since nothing is going to bring about the apocolypse that point is moot.

 

Money is not always the bottom line.

[clobberintime]

I plead the 5th your honor.