Do Historical Market Trends Indicate it is Time to Sell?

[tth2]

You make a very good point, Andy. The one area where we`ve seen the same high grade books come up for sale over and over again is in GA (supposedly the province of REAL collectors), which has resulted in flattening or declining prices.

 

The last few months are probably the first period in a while in which an 8.5 or better Marvel Comics #1 hasn`t come up for public sale.

 

Tim, do you have any examples of high grade GA books coming up for sale over and over again?

 

I thought I followed this pretty closely but maybe I am missing something...are you talking about Duck books as I know this is an area that you follow that I don't.

Besides MC #1, there are also the More Fun Spectre issues and I think the Allentown Detective #38 come up for sale at least 3 times in the last 5 years or so.

 

However, the poster child for familiarity breeding contempt is the MH copy of National #7. There was almost mystical reverence for the book when it first came up and sold on Heritage. Then it`s buyer decided to dump it, and then it kept coming up for sale over and over and over, with the book becoming virtually stigmatized. I understand it finally was purchased by a real collector after its price had plummeted and should hopefully regain some of its mojo by being locked away for a long time.

[october]

However, the poster child for familiarity breeding contempt is the MH copy of National #7. There was almost mystical reverence for the book when it first came up and sold on Heritage. Then it`s buyer decided to dump it, and then it kept coming up for sale over and over and over, with the book becoming virtually stigmatized. I understand it finally was purchased by a real collector after its price had plummeted and should hopefully regain some of its mojo by being locked away for a long time.

 

An excellent example, and an excellent bargain (50% off its initial selling price) for the savvy collector who picked it up.

[tth2]

You make a very good point, Andy. The one area where we`ve seen the same high grade books come up for sale over and over again is in GA (supposedly the province of REAL collectors), which has resulted in flattening or declining prices.

 

The last few months are probably the first period in a while in which an 8.5 or better Marvel Comics #1 hasn`t come up for public sale.

 

Tim, do you have any examples of high grade GA books coming up for sale over and over again?

 

I thought I followed this pretty closely but maybe I am missing something...are you talking about Duck books as I know this is an area that you follow that I don't.

 

Well, Tim's one example is accurate. The Denver, Larson and Pay copies of Marvel 1 have all been flipped multiple times in the past few years...and that's just from a casual search through the Heritage archives.

KC copy too, if memory serves. Thinking further, the Pennsylvania and MH copies of various Fawcetts (Capt Midnight, Bulletman, etc.). Although surprisingly I haven`t seen many Crowleys resurfacing after the big run that was brought out on Heritage a few years ago.

[tth2]

However, the poster child for familiarity breeding contempt is the MH copy of National #7. There was almost mystical reverence for the book when it first came up and sold on Heritage. Then it`s buyer decided to dump it, and then it kept coming up for sale over and over and over, with the book becoming virtually stigmatized. I understand it finally was purchased by a real collector after its price had plummeted and should hopefully regain some of its mojo by being locked away for a long time.

 

An excellent example, and an excellent bargain (50% off its initial selling price) for the savy collector who picked it up.

I`m still sore at Adamstrange for that one, because it ended up selling on some bizarro Heritage monthly auction where it was buried among many non-comic items, and I held off going after it at that bargain price because I thought he was going after it and then he didn`t.

[VintageComics]

You make a very good point, Andy. The one area where we`ve seen the same high grade books come up for sale over and over again is in GA (supposedly the province of REAL collectors), which has resulted in flattening or declining prices.

 

The last few months are probably the first period in a while in which an 8.5 or better Marvel Comics #1 hasn`t come up for public sale.

 

Tim, do you have any examples of high grade GA books coming up for sale over and over again?

 

I thought I followed this pretty closely but maybe I am missing something...are you talking about Duck books as I know this is an area that you follow that I don't.

 

Well, Tim's one example is accurate. The Denver, Larson and Pay copies of Marvel 1 have all been flipped multiple times in the past few years...and that's just from a casual search through the Heritage archives.

KC copy too, if memory serves. Thinking further, the Pennsylvania and MH copies of various Fawcetts (Capt Midnight, Bulletman, etc.). Although surprisingly I haven`t seen many Crowleys resurfacing after the big run that was brought out on Heritage a few years ago.

 

And the Allentown MC #1.

 

Yes, there was a fire sale on MC #1 copies...almost like everyone colluded to sell them at the same time.

 

I know the Denver and KC copies are now locked away in collections by board members. Don't know where the Larson went and I didn't even realize the Pay copy had sold recently.

 

[Aman619]

but the sellers expected too much in the beginning of the wave, rather than let them find their true market value. SO they kept appearing waiting for that one guy to step up. And finally had to let them go cheaper.

 

They held out for a perceived value as a % of the mega keys that DO sell, Action 1, Tec27 etc. Im not putting 100K+ into Torch, Namor, Spectre, National 7/Uncle Sam? no matter how many avid fans there are telling me how cool they are. I respect you guys' love for these books... I just dont feel the love. At these prices.

[VintageComics]

but the sellers expected too much in the beginning of the wave, rather than let them find their true market value. SO they kept appearing waiting for that one guy to step up. And finally had to let them go cheaper.

 

They held out for a perceived value as a % of the mega keys that DO sell, Action 1, Tec27 etc. Im not putting 100K+ into Torch, Namor, Spectre, National 7/Uncle Sam? no matter how many avid fans there are telling me how cool they are. I respect you guys' love for these books... I just dont feel the love. At these prices.

 

I'm feeling the love...and possibly would love to go for one of the MC #1 Ped copies as I know where a few of them are.

 

[Silver]

Answer: yes.

 

Have you seen prices on sweet books, on this forum, just today? More than reasonable and below what recent precedence would indicate. I can see it coming on everything except the ultra primo high grade stuff.

 

I think the market is already going lower, I agree with the above statement, "except the ultra primo high grade stuff"

 

Just look at GPA. prices tranding downwars ALL OVER the place. Stick your head in the sand if you want.

[kimik]

I think that we will see more GA keys (not just more common ones like MC #1) come to market over the next few years due to demographics as well as economic woes. Yes, we have a lot of people buying to flip books, but how many long time collectors have copies and are either a) in some sort of financial difficulty due to the economy and need to raise funds to live (or invest in something else) or b) are hitting retirement age and need to raise funds? I expect more long held collections come to market in the coming years, and it will be interesting to see what happens price wise as a result.

 

I agree that there is a lot of speculation on SA/BA/CA/MA books right now, just like the past 5 years. What shocks me is the amount that people are spending on 9.6 or 9.8 common SA and BA books. This market is destined to fall hard, IMHO, as there are a lot of HG copies out there (or that can be pressed) in high grade.

[kimik]

Answer: yes.

 

Have you seen prices on sweet books, on this forum, just today? More than reasonable and below what recent precedence would indicate. I can see it coming on everything except the ultra primo high grade stuff.

 

I think the market is already going lower, I agree with the above statement, "except the ultra primo high grade stuff"

 

Just look at GPA. prices tranding downwars ALL OVER the place. Stick your head in the sand if you want.

 

Agreed, but GPA is not a good measuring stick IMHO for books that do not sell regularly on eBay. They do not capture Clink data, or a lot of private sales of note for that matter. While I use it as a general guideline for prices on slabs (and the OSPG on raw books), it does have holes.

 

 

[14 of spades]

Crash threads have existed as long as this board has. I think all doomsayers have to concede that the comic market has been robust far longer than anyone could have imagined in 2002/03/04 etc.

 

That said, one difference I see now, versus say in 2003, is that there is much less resistance to the concept. In 2003, any crash threads were met with a lot of anger/disagreement, whereas now, many folks seem to concede it is plausible. I think there's two factors that cause this: (1) the ultra-nosebleed prices paid on some books, and (2) the increase in numbers in the census (I still remember when there was only one Hulk 181 in 9.8).

 

If the entire house of cards DOES collapse, then everyone will look back at these threads and wonder, "Why didn't I see it coming? The signs were everywhere!"

 

So what does it mean for the status of a market if crash theories abound? I can't see how it is a characteristic of a healthy market.

 

 

[delekkerste]

Crash threads have existed as long as this board has. I think all doomsayers have to concede that the comic market has been robust far longer than anyone could have imagined in 2002/03/04 etc.

 

Certainly, the top end of the market has reached heights of lunacy I could hardly have imagined back in 2003 or thereabouts. That said, most of the newbs here probably don't remember the early 2000s, when any book in 9.2 or higher would fetch multiples of Guide and almost any book in 9.8 (even Moderns) would routinely fetch $100+. Back when 9.0s and 9.2s were today's 9.4s and 9.4s were today's 9.6s and 9.6s were today's 9.8s. Back when Peter Parker #1 in 9.8 would fetch $600+ dollars on eBay (pre-GPAnalysis) - I knew a guy who was investing in this book, trying to corner the market - and someone found Wolverine #1 Limited Series CGC 8.5 worth making the trip to my apartment to pick it up when I sold it to him on eBay in late 2001!!

 

As far as I know, people aren't paying $1K for ASM #121 CGC 9.4 or $2K+ for ASM #122 in CGC 9.6 anymore - like I actually did in 2000-2001, guilty as charged. And let's not even mention the triple-digit price I paid for Daredevil #163 (yes, #163) CGC 9.4. And, I was far from the biggest offender back then! So don't anyone tell me that prices for a wide range of Bronze-Copper-Modern books haven't crashed since those early days, because I know first-hand! I'm sure there are plenty of older books as well that have not kept up with the supa-hot AF15s and Avengers 1s and GL 76s as well since then.

 

 

So what does it mean for the status of a market if crash theories abound? I can't see how it is a characteristic of a healthy market.

 

Generally speaking, the more people that are looking for a market to crash, the more likely the mania will persist (for a while, at least). I have no doubt that the greed, egos, crazy prices and shady practices that are rampant in this hobby will eventually be the undoing of this bubble market. But, as in life, timing is everything...

[Silver]

Answer: yes.

 

Have you seen prices on sweet books, on this forum, just today? More than reasonable and below what recent precedence would indicate. I can see it coming on everything except the ultra primo high grade stuff.

 

I think the market is already going lower, I agree with the above statement, "except the ultra primo high grade stuff"

 

Just look at GPA. prices tranding downwars ALL OVER the place. Stick your head in the sand if you want.

 

Agreed, but GPA is not a good measuring stick IMHO for books that do not sell regularly on eBay. They do not capture Clink data, or a lot of private sales of note for that matter. While I use it as a general guideline for prices on slabs (and the OSPG on raw books), it does have holes.

 

 

GPA is a great measuring stick IMHO. It does capture CLINK auctions, eBay and Heritage. They represent a pretty good cross section of the auction marketspace, which is a refelction of market value. The fact that raw books arent captured doesnt really matter, does it?

 

The sheer volume of pricing info on GPA and done over time (7 years now?) makes it very credible.

 

I see lower price trends on tons of stuff. Only the *best* material seems to consistantly trend upwards.

[Hedge Collector]

Maybe we can create an index of our own to track the market trend?

 

There are many segments to our hobby, but I am mainly a high grade SA collector, so I'd be up for creating an index for tracking this segment of the market.

 

Would others think this to be valuable? Is something like this already out there?

 

I would think two charts (DC & Marvel) of 9.2+ of the top 10 or 12 books might suffice.

[bronze_rules]

Maybe we can create an index of our own to track the market trend?

 

There are many segments to our hobby, but I am mainly a high grade SA collector, so I'd be up for creating an index for tracking this segment of the market.

 

Would others think this to be valuable? Is something like this already out there?

 

I would think two charts (DC & Marvel) of 9.2+ of the top 10 or 12 books might suffice.

 

Haven't checked the comprehensiveness, but there is a nice blog that covers this segment. (thumbs u

http://www.comicpriceindex.com/2008/07/silver-age-comic-book-price-index-18.html

 

I haven't found her methodology, but the only contention with corroborating any ideas in this thread, is that I believe she is using 'average' prices as a proxy. In order to make the arguments in this thread more sound, you'd need an index that tracked UHG comic key sales (the outliers), not just the averages.

 

Call it something like the niftty fifty money is no object, uber high grade comic index--

NFMNOUHGC (sounds like an option contract).

[14 of spades]

and almost any book in 9.8 (even Moderns) would routinely fetch $100+.

 

And let's not even mention the triple-digit price I paid for Daredevil #163 (yes, #163) CGC 9.4.

 

Ahh. I remember those auctions. Basically - they were selling the grade (a CGC 9.8 - obviously this is worth a lot of money!). If the book was from the 1980s (or egad, from the 1970s!), no matter what the title/number, it was worth over a hundred bucks. I remember the perception that these were ultra-rarities and literally one-time buys.

 

As for Daredevil - I don't think any movie caused speculation on a grand scheme as much as this one did. The first Spidey movie (2002) caused an enormous jump in ASM prices. This was likely due to both movie hype AND the coinciding grading/Ebay/availability hype.

 

The next movie in line was Daredevil (2003) and everyone knew it was coming. Here comes the bandwagon. The summer leading up to Daredevil (i.e. 2002) caused a huge spike in prices - but this wasn't due to hype (like ASM was), it was purely due to speculation. Obviously - given what happened to ASM prices in 2002, the SAME was going to happen to DD in 2003. Well, after multiple record-setting sales in the summer of 2002 (I specifically recall a DD 183 CGC 9.6 for $251. I remember this because I bought an ungraded 9.6 for $2), by the time DD actually came out, prices were at a whimper.

 

So hype (or a market correction?) caused the ASM jump, and speculation caused the DD jump. I think most folks learned their lesson on DD, because from then on (FF, XM, etc.), the market never got as excited over an impending movie as what occurred for DD.

 

Collecting definitely comes in ebbs and flows. Not too long ago, Avengers 4 was considered ubiquitous/dull/common, and now everyone wants it. Personally, I think SA Batmans have been awfully quiet in the wake of all the Marvel movie success. I think they are in line for a rebound, provided that rebound occurs BEFORE the Great_Crash.

[14 of spades]

Haven't checked the comprehensiveness, but there is a nice blog that covers this segment. (thumbs u

http://www.comicpriceindex.com/2008/07/silver-age-comic-book-price-index-18.html

 

There's also another website that has been doing the same thing for some time.

 

He had two "funds" - one was mid-grade SA, and one was HG SA.

 

It was highly referenced back in the day - I'm sure someone here knows about it.

[LordRahl]

Crash threads have existed as long as this board has. I think all doomsayers have to concede that the comic market has been robust far longer than anyone could have imagined in 2002/03/04 etc.

 

Certainly, the top end of the market has reached heights of lunacy I could hardly have imagined back in 2003 or thereabouts. That said, most of the newbs here probably don't remember the early 2000s, when any book in 9.2 or higher would fetch multiples of Guide and almost any book in 9.8 (even Moderns) would routinely fetch $100+. Back when 9.0s and 9.2s were today's 9.4s and 9.4s were today's 9.6s and 9.6s were today's 9.8s. Back when Peter Parker #1 in 9.8 would fetch $600+ dollars on eBay (pre-GPAnalysis) - I knew a guy who was investing in this book, trying to corner the market - and someone found Wolverine #1 Limited Series CGC 8.5 worth making the trip to my apartment to pick it up when I sold it to him on eBay in late 2001!!

 

As far as I know, people aren't paying $1K for ASM #121 CGC 9.4 or $2K+ for ASM #122 in CGC 9.6 anymore - like I actually did in 2000-2001, guilty as charged. And let's not even mention the triple-digit price I paid for Daredevil #163 (yes, #163) CGC 9.4. And, I was far from the biggest offender back then! So don't anyone tell me that prices for a wide range of Bronze-Copper-Modern books haven't crashed since those early days, because I know first-hand! I'm sure there are plenty of older books as well that have not kept up with the supa-hot AF15s and Avengers 1s and GL 76s as well since then.

 

 

So what does it mean for the status of a market if crash theories abound? I can't see how it is a characteristic of a healthy market.

 

Generally speaking, the more people that are looking for a market to crash, the more likely the mania will persist (for a while, at least). I have no doubt that the greed, egos, crazy prices and shady practices that are rampant in this hobby will eventually be the undoing of this bubble market. But, as in life, timing is everything...

 

Well it has taken 7+ years of crash threads but I finally agree with you Gene. You and I had opposing view points about where the market was going 6-7 years ago but prices are at a point that is unsustainable IMHO. At least at the very high end for late silver and bronze. There are simply wayyyy too many Avengers 93s and FF 72s still sitting around waiting to be graded for these books to be commanding upwards of $5K in 9.6 or 9.8.

 

I can't speak for the GA market since I don't follow it at all. Early silver may survive a bit better since I doubt there are still hundreds of high grade FF 1s and similar books sitting around raw.

[Hedge Collector]

Haven't checked the comprehensiveness, but there is a nice blog that covers this segment. (thumbs u

http://www.comicpriceindex.com/2008/07/silver-age-comic-book-price-index-18.html

 

There's also another website that has been doing the same thing for some time.

 

He had two "funds" - one was mid-grade SA, and one was HG SA.

 

It was highly referenced back in the day - I'm sure someone here knows about it.

 

Does anyone know any current comics "indexes?"

 

My poor google skills yields nothing...

[etanick]

just how up to date is GPA? I won a few books on ComicLink back in May and as far as I can see, what I paid are not reflected or captured yet on their database. Are they as timely as CGC slabbing the books?