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OT (or maybe not): Do you believe INflation or DEflation for the next 5 years?

Started by Hedge Collector,

62 posts in this topic

Hedge Collector

Hedge Collector

Posted
Posted

Maybe not completely OT because I believe whatever happens in the next 5 years, it will hit the closing prices in all these auctions.

 

Some believe we are in for a Japan style deflationary scenario. Where massive printing will do no good, and the debt/credit bubble unwind will be deflation for years.

 

Some believe the massive increase in money supply will lead to inflation.

 

Which do you believe and why?

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delekkerste

delekkerste

Posted
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Some food for thought:

 

It's true that a ballooning stock of money relative to available goods and services could be inflationary. But only if it is used to increase the total amount of credit. That's not happening. Through the first five years of the Great Depression, the monetary base also expanded strongly, but its robust growth did not end the deflation, nor did it lead to a runaway inflationary surge after the deflation ran its course. Here again, monetary authorities are pulling out the stops. But it cannot override the caution that is causing people to cut back.

 

By the way, for those of you who are still hung up on money growth, M2 growth just went negative. Seriously, everything that the inflationistas claim should be happening simply isn't happening. For the most part, prices are not going up, in fact, they are falling. Consumers are saving, not spending, quite the opposite of how one acts in an inflation. M2 is falling, not growing. Consumer credit is falling, not growing. Gold has been firm and the dollar has been soft, but neither has surpassed its 2008 high or low, respectively, and both look ripe for a correction. T-bill rates are almost zero and Treasury bond yields are near historical lows. When are people going to stop grasping at inflationary straws and actually try to reconcile their views with what is empirically going on in the real world? (shrug)

 

It is undeniable that we are gripped in a debt-deflationary spiral now. At some point in the future we may have an inflation problem as the authorities try to unwind all the measures they took to save the financial system. Personally, I think that is the more likely case, but the experiences of the U.S. in the 1930s and Japan since 1990 indicate that we should keep an open mind. In any case, I think those betting heavily now for a future inflation are likely to experience some deflationary pain first. :eek:

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kapowcat-migration

kapowcat-migration

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comics are not liquid,its a hobby (WHO THE HELL IS OVERSTREET) however we baby boomers can do things from the TWILIGHT ZONE me included,God help me!. Best regards to all my fellow collectors.-- (hey I love americana) -- 7% in your investments to 10% but no more? P.S. its a scam just like 50% of wall street is, if the economy is well so is this great hobby,CGC saved us if its a money matter. Yeah like OVERSTREET can pick values,what B.S. I would love to have that power! GOLD,GOLD,PROPERTY,LIQUIDITY IS KEY! IN BAD TIMES.

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FlyingDonut

FlyingDonut

Posted
Posted
comics are not liquid,its a hobby (WHO THE HELL IS OVERSTREET) however we baby boomers can do things from the TWILIGHT ZONE me included,God help me!. Best regards to all my fellow collectors.-- (hey I love americana) -- 7% in your investments to 10% but no more? P.S. its a scam just like 50% of wall street is, if the economy is well so is this great hobby,CGC saved us if its a money matter. Yeah like OVERSTREET can pick values,what B.S. I would love to have that power! GOLD,GOLD,PROPERTY,LIQUIDITY IS KEY! IN BAD TIMES.

 

doh! Here we go again.

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Green

Green

Posted
Posted
comics are not liquid,its a hobby (WHO THE HELL IS OVERSTREET) however we baby boomers can do things from the TWILIGHT ZONE me included,God help me!. Best regards to all my fellow collectors.-- (hey I love americana) -- 7% in your investments to 10% but no more? P.S. its a scam just like 50% of wall street is, if the economy is well so is this great hobby,CGC saved us if its a money matter. Yeah like OVERSTREET can pick values,what B.S. I would love to have that power! GOLD,GOLD,PROPERTY,LIQUIDITY IS KEY! IN BAD TIMES.

 

doh! Here we go again.

:baiting::grin:
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Aman619

Aman619

Posted
Posted
comics are not liquid,its a hobby (WHO THE HELL IS OVERSTREET) however we baby boomers can do things from the TWILIGHT ZONE me included,God help me!. Best regards to all my fellow collectors.-- (hey I love americana) -- 7% in your investments to 10% but no more? P.S. its a scam just like 50% of wall street is, if the economy is well so is this great hobby,CGC saved us if its a money matter. Yeah like OVERSTREET can pick values,what B.S. I would love to have that power! GOLD,GOLD,PROPERTY,LIQUIDITY IS KEY! IN BAD TIMES.

 

i cant argue with this.

 

cant understand a word of it neither.

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Hedge Collector

Hedge Collector

Posted
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Posted
comics are not liquid,its a hobby (WHO THE HELL IS OVERSTREET) however we baby boomers can do things from the TWILIGHT ZONE me included,God help me!. Best regards to all my fellow collectors.-- (hey I love americana) -- 7% in your investments to 10% but no more? P.S. its a scam just like 50% of wall street is, if the economy is well so is this great hobby,CGC saved us if its a money matter. Yeah like OVERSTREET can pick values,what B.S. I would love to have that power! GOLD,GOLD,PROPERTY,LIQUIDITY IS KEY! IN BAD TIMES.

 

i cant argue with this.

 

cant understand a word of it neither.

 

Whew. I thought it was just me.

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FlyingDonut

FlyingDonut

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It is just you,please state what exactly are you in disagreement with me about. I believe I have the right to state my opinion without being disrespected by you. I hope you (GET IT HEDGE COLLECTOR) please stop,Best regards

 

In bad times, property isn't liquid.

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Zonker

Zonker

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hopefully, mild inflation. Deflation is bad.

 

Isn't inflation even worse?

 

No way. Inflation is manageable (up to a point). Deflation is a viscious downward spiral.

 

People stop buying now because everything will be cheaper tomorrow. The whole economy starts to grind to a halt.

 

Give me inflation any day. :golfclap:

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Claudio

Claudio

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I was really worried about inflation greatly but it hasn't exactly played out as I thought it would. I am still concerned but I have reason for optimism now. Deflation to me seems a little more far-fetched. Companies can reduce inventories quickly nowadays and shore up excess.

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VintageComics

VintageComics

Posted
Posted
It is just you,please state what exactly are you in disagreement with me about. I believe I have the right to state my opinion without being disrespected by you. I hope you (GET IT HEDGE COLLECTOR) please stop,Best regards

 

In bad times, property isn't liquid.

 

But comics are.

 

:D

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MR.COMICBOOK

MR.COMICBOOK

Posted
Posted
It is just you,please state what exactly are you in disagreement with me about. I believe I have the right to state my opinion without being disrespected by you. I hope you (GET IT HEDGE COLLECTOR) please stop,Best regards

 

In bad times, property isn't liquid.

 

But comics are.

 

:D

(thumbs u

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TheShadowKnows

TheShadowKnows

Posted
Posted
It is just you,please state what exactly are you in disagreement with me about. I believe I have the right to state my opinion without being disrespected by you. I hope you (GET IT HEDGE COLLECTOR) please stop,Best regards

 

In bad times, property isn't liquid.

Just ask Nic Cage

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Hedge Collector

Hedge Collector

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Posted
It is just you,please state what exactly are you in disagreement with me about. I believe I have the right to state my opinion without being disrespected by you. I hope you (GET IT HEDGE COLLECTOR) please stop,Best regards

 

What I meant was, like Aman, I can't understand what you were saying in your post.

 

Actually, when you said comics were not liquid, I do disagree with that. I can get money for most of my books faster than it takes to do an online transfer between my bank accounts. I call that liquid.

 

And no, I don't mean disrepect towards you.

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