Print runs of Moderns = valuable??

[MisterX]

I'd like to think the lower print runs of the 1999-2010 comics might make them more desirable/valuable to collectors in the future, but...

 

Readers and casual collectors just looking for these stories can already find them online. And if they don't want to read their comics on a computer screen, there are tons of trade paperbacks out there (which, thanks to the decompressed storytelling techniques in vogue now, are an easy way to grab single story arc, rather than trying to track down individual issues.)

 

At some point, if an out of print trade starts to cost more than individual isses, the price of a floppy might go up.

 

I'm just not sure how many diehards will be left who will want the floppies.

[marmat]

My opinion is that it depends on the number of new collectors in the next 20-30 year. But still, is a fact that some indipendents (30 Days of Night, Walking Dead) are extremely scarce. Included some mainstream title is hard to find; for example, Thor 80-85

[sckao]

Physical comic collectors will never come back in the same numbers. It's going to be digital.

 

So those Geoff Johns Flash comics WILL be read and appreciated in the future, just not in a pamphlet format.

 

 

 

[Topnotchman]

As long as collected editions, or high cover price trade paperbacks remain popular. They will continue to print new comics with new stories. The money publishers are making with the trades in book stores probably already outweighs the 32 page new releases. You can print and sell books like Watchmen trades for 20 years and people still buy them. The future of comics is trades, the collecting of original first printing trades is also a growing collectable.

[sckao]

 

I don't see Tpbs or HCs going away either... but not every comic is collected in a trade paperback. (And they're frequently "edited" and have subplots removed to concentrate on the core story.)

[RockMyAmadeus]

Physical comic collectors will never come back in the same numbers. It's going to be digital.

 

So those Geof John's Flash comics WILL be read and appreciated in the future, just not in a pamphlet format.

 

 

 

"Read and appreciated" is a lot different from "collected."

 

Human beings have this bizarre need to collect things; it satisfies some deep primal urge for order in a chatoic world, I suppose.

 

Amazing Spiderman #1 has been reprinted several dozen times by now, yet the actual first issue is worth ever more money. Everyone has cheap, easy access to it...so why is the original still worth so much money...?

 

I've said this before, and I'll say it again here: so long as human beings have 5 physical senses, they will always want to smell, touch, see, hear...if not taste...things they've collected.

[sckao]

No question. I'm just coming at this from the viewpoint that the art form will not die. (If you don't correlate paper with the art form..)

 

I look at it like the comic strip. Does everyone still read the daily and Sunday funnies? Much of that audience has moved online. Newspapers are dying out. Comic strips will survive by also moving online.

 

Sure, there will always be collectors. How many modern stamps are valuable though? (Besides the inverted colonial rush lamp candle holder errors and even those are now 30 years old.)

[RedRaven]

Physical comic collectors will never come back in the same numbers. It's going to be digital.

 

So those Geof John's Flash comics WILL be read and appreciated in the future, just not in a pamphlet format.

 

 

 

My collecting is all digital now. I think it's actually the purest form of comic collecting now as you only acquire in order to read. No monetary incentive. No speculating. I look forward to the future of comics. (thumbs u

[James Howlett]

My brother is 10 years younger then me and his generation is really into collecting older video games. None of them care about sports cards or comics however they pay big money for old video games.

 

I've been dabbling in buying Collector/Special Editions when they go on clearance (just because I like them) and I have noticed there is a SERIOUS grassroots movement for this. Lots of kids and young adults actually buy 2 games, one to play and the other for their collection. Lots of people are looking for HTF recent sealed games, and are paying big bucks for them, some versions are rarer than others (variants?) and valuable, etc.

 

Games are incredibly easy to stack and store, as well as to display and I see this absolutely exploding in under 10 years.

 

I think I have about 10 games or so that could fetch between $100-$200 each. I was actually talking to my friend the other day saying how I might have to sell them if I come accross a comic grail one day.

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

No question. I'm just coming at this from the viewpoint that the art form will not die. (If you don't correlate paper with the art form..)

 

I look at it like the comic strip. Does everyone still read the daily and Sunday funnies? Much of that audience has moved online. Newspapers are dying out. Comic strips will survive by also moving online.

 

Sure, there will always be collectors. How many modern stamps are valuable though? (Besides the inverted colonial rush lamp candle holder errors and even those are now 30 years old.)

 

None, but that's because the USPS tapped into the collector market in the 1950's, and became the Franklin Mint of the US Gov't...notwithstanding the ACTUAL US Mint, which became the Franklin Mint of the US Gov't in the 1980's.

 

Look at coins...for the entire decade of the 1990's, coins languished as a collector field. Prices went down across the board, except for the ultra high grade, ultra rare stuff (sound familiar?) for the first time in the history of coins as a popular collecting pastime.

 

Then...the US Treasure Dept. finally wised up, realized that KIDS and average people weren't buying their overpriced proof, mint sets, and commemorative coins. They didn't even know they existed.

 

So they decided to do something that hadn't been done on circulating coinage since 1946 (with the exception of the half in 1964, but the half, like the dollar, doesn't circulate)...they CHANGED the designs! The US quarter had had the same exact design for 66 YEARS by 1998. The nickel for 60 years...same exact design. The dime, 52 years (and now going on 64 itself), and, though the cent's reverse was new in 1959, the obverse hadn't seen a design change in almost 90 years...and now it's on year 101! GACK!

 

And VOILA! Coin collecting enjoyed a SAVAGE renaissance as people bought books again to get all the state quarters, and kids could look at their change and see something different in it.

 

As a result, coin collecting came back in full force, and the gov't was convinced to do likewise changes to the nickel and the cent, in turn.

 

Now...there's nothing analogous in this to comics, I know. The gov't doesn't make comics, obviously. But...if something along these lines were to happen...something different, something new...I think you COULD get people into collecting them again.

 

There's a richness to the artform that just can't be denied. It only needs someone to tap into it, somehow.

[HarrisonJohn]

Have said this here before, but I was working on a run of Uncanny X-Men a few years ago and every convention or comic book store I went to would have issues from all years except the mid to late 90's. Those 70 or so issues were so difficult! There would definetly be some crazy prices IF a good number of people ever start collecting that stuff, which I guess isn't impossible but doesn't seem likely. But I think print runs are even lower now??

[ComicConnoisseur]

Amazing Spider-man, doesn`t matter what the print run is. if you look at the gpa analysis the Amazing Spider-man from the silver age-up is the king and its not even close. a few ASM that you would have made at least double your money in the last 18 months were 569 and 583. ASM is the benchmark for comics at silver age to modern.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Low print run of Independents seem have merit compared to what there original cover price was. I'm thinking original Crow book, Turtles #1, Bone #1, newer books like Walking Dead #1. If one would of boughten 10-100 copies of those books and put them away, the return would of been extra ordinary, someone capable of predicting the future on Independents, is well extra ordinary.

 

I bought Watchmens very heavy two years before the movie, that panned out for me. The books were considered a dead 80's title when in broken sets. There is probably lots of dead 80's and 90's titles out there the may have a resurrection sometime in the next 10 years. I think the Marvel Star books have potential due to low print runs and difficulty in high grades.

yeah but do they have to be CGC`ed to turn a decent profit? that is the question.

Myself, I would put my money on Droids.

[Topnotchman]

Low print run of Independents seem have merit compared to what there original cover price was. I'm thinking original Crow book, Turtles #1, Bone #1, newer books like Walking Dead #1. If one would of boughten 10-100 copies of those books and put them away, the return would of been extra ordinary, someone capable of predicting the future on Independents, is well extra ordinary.

 

I bought Watchmens very heavy two years before the movie, that panned out for me. The books were considered a dead 80's title when in broken sets. There is probably lots of dead 80's and 90's titles out there the may have a resurrection sometime in the next 10 years. I think the Marvel Star books have potential due to low print runs and difficulty in high grades.

yeah but do they have to be CGC`ed to turn a decent profit? that is the question.

I was flipping 1-12 sets of Watchmen in the 150.00-250.00 range during the hype of the second half of 2008.

 

Of coarse this title has cooled almost to the level it was 5 years ago.

[Currin Comics]

This thread was a good read, and many solid points, this is how I see it. Collecting as we know it is not dying, but it's on life support. I think Ebay is a great barometer, 10 years ago people would clamor and fight over certain issues of a title, and the money fetched was decent to good. Now, I realize that the current state of the economy has driven some of the free spending cash away from ebay and the hobby itself and rightfully so, and I also beleive that when peoples cash flow loosenes up there will be a buying boom once again for those who could not cash in on the great deals out there now. This next spurt will trickle in to the lower print run titles we see today and the past ten years, as people attempt to build some runs up. The variants and would be "keys" will perhaps fetch more, all that being said, I feel like the hobby has one more big push/boom coming that may last say another 10 years once it get's rolling. Also, when the Hollywood craze of making comic book comes to an end, well that may be the end days, as the interest and attention brought on by hyping the movies will come to and end and the gateway to the stories and history will fade away as well. Only time will tell as it always does, and the only thing permanent is change, and our beloved hobby is not immune to the forces of time and technology-Peace CC

[Black Lantern]

I have some hopes that like everything else, comics will also have a big comeback in many years to come. When everything goes digital and online, people might get interested in physical stuff again. Just look at the big comeback of vinyl LPs, which were dead and buried. The art market is the same, it often takes years for something to get interesting for the collectors. I know it's wishful thinking but we should not write off comics for sure.

[RockMyAmadeus]

This thread was a good read, and many solid points, this is how I see it. Collecting as we know it is not dying, but it's on life support. I think Ebay is a great barometer, 10 years ago people would clamor and fight over certain issues of a title, and the money fetched was decent to good. Now, I realize that the current state of the economy has driven some of the free spending cash away from ebay and the hobby itself and rightfully so, and I also beleive that when peoples cash flow loosenes up there will be a buying boom once again for those who could not cash in on the great deals out there now. This next spurt will trickle in to the lower print run titles we see today and the past ten years, as people attempt to build some runs up. The variants and would be "keys" will perhaps fetch more, all that being said, I feel like the hobby has one more big push/boom coming that may last say another 10 years once it get's rolling. Also, when the Hollywood craze of making comic book comes to an end, well that may be the end days, as the interest and attention brought on by hyping the movies will come to and end and the gateway to the stories and history will fade away as well. Only time will tell as it always does, and the only thing permanent is change, and our beloved hobby is not immune to the forces of time and technology-Peace CC

 

I *truly* do not understand people who say that 10 years ago, prices were higher for pretty much anything. 10 years ago was the darkest days of the industry, ever. It is a wonder ANY publisher survived.

 

I spent $150,000 on eBay (and have the Paypal account and check registers to prove it) between late 1998 and 2007. Not a single item...not one...was more than $500 (except the Batman #11 )

 

I spent thousands and thousands of dollars on mid-grade, mid-run Silver age, higher grade Bronze, and "NM or better" 1975-up.

 

I bought well over 100,000 comics. I bought everything from Golden Age, to mainstream Silver, to modern indies. If there was ANY interest in it, I tried to obtain it, or multiple copies of it.

 

What does this mean? It means I had a really good handle on the average prices of average stuff during that time frame. And I'm telling you....prices are much, much higher, across the board, for stuff NOW than at any time when I have been buying on eBay.

 

Books that I used to get for $10 or less (Harbinger #1, complete sets of Death in the Family in NM, VF Uncanny X-Men #34, 36, 37, 42, 43, NM runs of late bronze Avengers, Spiderman, FF, etc.) I cannot touch for less than twice that, often more.

 

I bought acres of Conan, except #1 and #3, in F/VF to VF/NM for $5, $6, $10.

 

I bought a restored VF Batman #9 for $500, for God's sake! $500! In 2006!

 

NM runs of Deadpool? $30 in 2002. $30! NM runs of New Mutants? $50 for #1-100. $50! I amassed 11 copies of Primer #2...including an eventual 9.8...for NO MORE than $31.69, my "stop bid" for that book. I assembled a COMPLETE run of Batman #100-up, and the most expensive book was VG #100 @ $160. I paid $50 for my VG Batman #121. The rest? $30-$40 TOPS. For ALL of them, including a VF #171! I bought a graded VG/F Brave and the Bold from Flying Donut for $84 shipped in '02-'03 (I'm too lazy to look it up.) Guide at the time for this MAJOR silver age key was $400+!

 

Ask Todd Lange how much he sold stuff for in 2000-2001. It's shocking.

 

So...I dunno, I guess I don't understand why people say prices are lower now. Are they lower for slabbed moderns? Of course. What percentage of the market do slabbed moderns take up? I dunno...1/10th of 1%? Maybe?

 

No offense to you, CC...you're not the first, and probably won't be the last to say that. I just don't know where it comes from.

[codfish]

So the question is do you think current low print runs are going to effect the future value of modern popular titles?

 

First let me clarify “Modern”. I’m talking last 8 years or so after the 90’s bubble popped. Print runs of books seem to have stabilized even as industry sales seem to be gaining some momentum, recession excluded. Even so, according to sales figures, the top selling books month to month rarely have Diamond distributed runs over 200,000 since the bust. We’ll ignore ASM 583 @ 530K as a speculator hiccup. The next highest ordered book of ‘09 was Blackest Night 1 @ 205K. Everything else was below the 200K line. Then we have sleeper hits like Chew and Walking Dead with far lower print runs.

 

I guess a corresponding question would be how many collectors are out there? If there are only ever 150-200K collectors of “key” books then even these print runs are sufficient to keep future prices low assuming not every collector wants every key.

 

I’ve been in this business a long time on both sides of the counter and I’ve never cared to speculate with my wallet just my brain. I have stuck to collecting what I enjoy reading and plan to keep doing so. But right now I see speculator prices on books like those mentioned previously and I really have no idea where comics are headed.

 

 

 

My personal opinion is no. The reason being that I don't see any significant effort by the industry to appeal to more than the 16-30/5 year old male demographic. AS a result I think the rough number of collectors stays roughly level. Even if the numbers were to grow that would be no assurance that those "low" print runs would translate to high demand and a rise in values as a result.

 

In the end though who knows ... I just think it unlikely.

[maloney414]

This thread was a good read, and many solid points, this is how I see it. Collecting as we know it is not dying, but it's on life support. I think Ebay is a great barometer, 10 years ago people would clamor and fight over certain issues of a title, and the money fetched was decent to good. Now, I realize that the current state of the economy has driven some of the free spending cash away from ebay and the hobby itself and rightfully so, and I also beleive that when peoples cash flow loosenes up there will be a buying boom once again for those who could not cash in on the great deals out there now. This next spurt will trickle in to the lower print run titles we see today and the past ten years, as people attempt to build some runs up. The variants and would be "keys" will perhaps fetch more, all that being said, I feel like the hobby has one more big push/boom coming that may last say another 10 years once it get's rolling. Also, when the Hollywood craze of making comic book comes to an end, well that may be the end days, as the interest and attention brought on by hyping the movies will come to and end and the gateway to the stories and history will fade away as well. Only time will tell as it always does, and the only thing permanent is change, and our beloved hobby is not immune to the forces of time and technology-Peace CC

 

I *truly* do not understand people who say that 10 years ago, prices were higher for pretty much anything. 10 years ago was the darkest days of the industry, ever. It is a wonder ANY publisher survived.

 

I spent $150,000 on eBay (and have the Paypal account and check registers to prove it) between late 1998 and 2007. Not a single item...not one...was more than $500 (except the Batman #11 )

 

I spent thousands and thousands of dollars on mid-grade, mid-run Silver age, higher grade Bronze, and "NM or better" 1975-up.

 

I bought well over 100,000 comics. I bought everything from Golden Age, to mainstream Silver, to modern indies. If there was ANY interest in it, I tried to obtain it, or multiple copies of it.

 

What does this mean? It means I had a really good handle on the average prices of average stuff during that time frame. And I'm telling you....prices are much, much higher, across the board, for stuff NOW than at any time when I have been buying on eBay.

 

Books that I used to get for $10 or less (Harbinger #1, complete sets of Death in the Family in NM, VF Uncanny X-Men #34, 36, 37, 42, 43, NM runs of late bronze Avengers, Spiderman, FF, etc.) I cannot touch for less than twice that, often more.

 

I bought acres of Conan, except #1 and #3, in F/VF to VF/NM for $5, $6, $10.

 

I bought a restored VF Batman #9 for $500, for God's sake! $500! In 2006!

 

NM runs of Deadpool? $30 in 2002. $30! NM runs of New Mutants? $50 for #1-100. $50! I amassed 11 copies of Primer #2...including an eventual 9.8...for NO MORE than $31.69, my "stop bid" for that book. I assembled a COMPLETE run of Batman #100-up, and the most expensive book was VG #100 @ $160. I paid $50 for my VG Batman #121. The rest? $30-$40 TOPS. For ALL of them, including a VF #171! I bought a graded VG/F Brave and the Bold from Flying Donut for $84 shipped in '02-'03 (I'm too lazy to look it up.) Guide at the time for this MAJOR silver age key was $400+!

 

Ask Todd Lange how much he sold stuff for in 2000-2001. It's shocking.

 

So...I dunno, I guess I don't understand why people say prices are lower now. Are they lower for slabbed moderns? Of course. What percentage of the market do slabbed moderns take up? I dunno...1/10th of 1%? Maybe?

 

No offense to you, CC...you're not the first, and probably won't be the last to say that. I just don't know where it comes from.

 

I love reading posts like this. You get a lot of great information here on the boards.

 

You see, I would have agreed with the earlier point that prices are down cause they seemed like they were for my collecting habits. But maybe my sample space has just been too small.

 

$150,000 to spend on comics. WOW! I'm jealous. And that definitely shows you've got a incredibly large sample space to better judge the market as a whole.

 

While I do buy a few moderns, my main focus is collecting Silver Age Marvels. Keys, 1st Appearances, ASM, etc... But I'm looking at them in the CGC 4.0 to 7.0 grade range.

 

This is why I would have said prices were down though:

 

A SA book that scores a CGC 7.0 sells for a lot less than it would have years ago, cause that 7.0 wouldn't have been in a holder back then and many dealers were trying to sell it as NM. Books that are now in CGC holders with 6.0 to 7.5 grades were not being sold appropriately before. They were overpriced / overgraded by many dealers.

 

You can get numerous 7.0 graded books for 30% of guide now, while they were being sold at full guide before.

 

I know it's a different kind of argument cause I'm comparing graded books to non graded books, but in my mind its ok cause it's the same actual book.

 

I've purchased quite a few books over the last 2 years that were out of my price range before.

 

Maybe I'm making a different point, cause the major influence on the price change in my sample space is more educated customers on grading than the economy, print runs, or the health of the hobby, etc...

 

So for me I think prices are down, but I believe you that the market as a whole is selling higher. I hope that makes sense.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Granted....prices for slabs are, across the board (except for high grade pre-1975 books) are down. You are absolutely correct. Prices for slabbed books peaked in 2006-2008, and have been sliding since.

 

But slabs are...how much of the market?

 

There's ONE national dealer that I know who deals solely in slabbed books.

Dale doesn't. Harley doesn't. Bob Storms doesn't. Metropolis doesn't. Mile High doesn't. Hardly anyone deals solely in slabbed books. The vast majority of dealers deal in raw books.

 

Well...here, this is relatively unscientific, but consider. Right now, as I type this, there are 141,858 items listed in "comics" on eBay.

 

7,750 have "CGC" in the title (minus PGX)

 

So, after 10+ years of CGC graded books, at this snapshot in time, all the slabbed books on eBay represent only 5% of the listed items in "comics."