Crazy Prices on Marvel Keys?

[sfilosa]

For example the Hulk 1 pacific coast I bought last year - how many times did that go on ebay before i bought it

 

Of all the things you said, this got to me.

 

Wanna sell it?

[burntboy]

I always made sense - at least to myself! I have avoided paying crazy prices when I could but i am a colletion/run longterm collector. I like things in the 9.2/9.4 range buit will spend more for favorite covers - I have always said that cgc's greatest marketing tool was the creation of the tiny differences between books in the 9.2 to 9.8 range. It caters to the wealthy buyer who has to have one up and who doesn't care about paying 20 x guide etc. I have multiple s of a lot of books in ranges of 9.2 to 9.6 and still can't see why the 9.6s command the prices that they do - you pay a lot more for very little upgrade., And yeah I know about the census - but all this was brought over from the coin market. I have never felt comfortable paying prices that i could not relate to Overstreet or to what I knew about the "rarity" of a book. I still think the Marvels pre - 1970 will maintain values consistent with OS fro a long time to come but am not so sure about the prices being paid presently. Everything has its time and nothing is hot forever - so is this the top of the wave? The time to sell? Who knows for sure? I am certainly not selling my stuff - it has been too long and too tough in putting it together. I am starting to buy other comics though - for instnce Golden age in the 7.0 to 8.0 range is a bargain when compared to nutty high grade amarvel prices. That stuff is much harder to find and there is much less competition right now with so mayn focused only on super high grade MARVEL.

 

your comments about wealthy buyers who just gotta have the best and don't care about price struck a chord with me.

 

in some small way it's like WINE. personally, i'll take 4 bottles of Mumm's Cordon Rouge Brut Champagne any day over 1 bottle of Dom Perignon. (for roughly the same money). BUT, i know people who would rather spend the hundred bucks per bottle and feed their wine egos.

 

when i look at the inherent beauty of any silver age marvel that i own that got graded a 9.0, i don't wish for a higher grade - it's already beautiful

[FFB]

With the way your Amazing Spider-Man #7 looked, you'd have to look long and hard for a nicer copy, regardless of the 9.0 that CGC gave it. (I.e., you got robbed on that one.)

 

I always made sense - at least to myself! I have avoided paying crazy prices when I could but i am a colletion/run longterm collector. I like things in the 9.2/9.4 range buit will spend more for favorite covers - I have always said that cgc's greatest marketing tool was the creation of the tiny differences between books in the 9.2 to 9.8 range. It caters to the wealthy buyer who has to have one up and who doesn't care about paying 20 x guide etc. I have multiple s of a lot of books in ranges of 9.2 to 9.6 and still can't see why the 9.6s command the prices that they do - you pay a lot more for very little upgrade., And yeah I know about the census - but all this was brought over from the coin market. I have never felt comfortable paying prices that i could not relate to Overstreet or to what I knew about the "rarity" of a book. I still think the Marvels pre - 1970 will maintain values consistent with OS fro a long time to come but am not so sure about the prices being paid presently. Everything has its time and nothing is hot forever - so is this the top of the wave? The time to sell? Who knows for sure? I am certainly not selling my stuff - it has been too long and too tough in putting it together. I am starting to buy other comics though - for instnce Golden age in the 7.0 to 8.0 range is a bargain when compared to nutty high grade amarvel prices. That stuff is much harder to find and there is much less competition right now with so mayn focused only on super high grade MARVEL.

 

your comments about wealthy buyers who just gotta have the best and don't care about price struck a chord with me.

 

in some small way it's like WINE. personally, i'll take 4 bottles of Mumm's Cordon Rouge Brut Champagne any day over 1 bottle of Dom Perignon. (for roughly the same money). BUT, i know people who would rather spend the hundred bucks per bottle and feed their wine egos.

 

when i look at the inherent beauty of any silver age marvel that i own that got graded a 9.0, i don't wish for a higher grade - it's already beautiful

[blowout]

With the way your Amazing Spider-Man #7 looked, you'd have to look long and hard for a nicer copy, regardless of the 9.0 that CGC gave it. (I.e., you got robbed on that one.)

 

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

[Guest]

In case nobody was paying attention the great "crash" of CGC books already took place. It happened after 9/11 and lasted for about a year. High quality books were going unsold or unbid beyond reserve. I managed to buy a few, which is how I recall pricing so well.

 

I don't know when comic collectors will wake up and realize that comic prices are DIRECTLY tied with stock market performance. I manage stocks for a living and can say without hesitation that when the market is up I am a bigger comic book buyer. When things are tough I pull in my horns. Forget this fantasy that comics have a life of their own. They do so far as keys being pricier, that is what collecting is all about...owning keys. But the overall market is driven by liquidity and discresionary dollars. Most folks like me that have this type of money have money in the stock market as well.

 

The boom in key prices is no coincidence, the stock market has rallied nearly 50% off it's bottom in the last 12 months or so. People ARE getting "richer". Some of this dough is making its way into comics.

 

Comics do seem to lag by about 6 months however. If you want to call a top in the comic market, pick the top in the stock market and add six months.

[clobberintime]

I have noticed that too over the last 4 or 5 years on ebay. After 9/11, ebay and comics were really stagnant for a long time and it was the time for some incredible deals. But the stock market and consumer faith index do play into the strength of expensive back issue sales - even more than movie hype. Prices on these books have been higher the last 6 months than ever since cgc started - even than when Spidey 1 and X-men came out. And with the big sales, long time collectors have taken note and are selling a lot of stuff not seen before - the hot market has brought out a lot of high quality books.

[delekkerste]

I don't know when comic collectors will wake up and realize that comic prices are DIRECTLY tied with stock market performance. I manage stocks for a living and can say without hesitation that when the market is up I am a bigger comic book buyer. When things are tough I pull in my horns. Forget this fantasy that comics have a life of their own.

 

I absolutely agree that comics are heavily influenced by factors external to the hobby. And, it is no coincidence that the mega-explosion in comic book prices occurred simultaneously with the raging bull market of the 1990s. However, I think the correlation is far from perfect. For example, comics soared through most of the 2000-2003 period even as the stock market suffered. In fact, I am a firm believer that a lot of people fled the stock market during this period and particularly after 9/11 and put their money into real estate, collectibles or just plain spent it because they wanted to buy tangible items that they were comfortable with as opposed to seeing their highly intangible stock values evaporate. While I agree that income/wealth trends (for which the stock market can be used as a proxy) are a key "invisible" driver behind comic prices over the long-term, in the short-term, I think this relationship can break down as they have for most of the past 4 years.

 

 

But the overall market is driven by liquidity and discresionary dollars.

 

Another great point that is overlooked. Right now, the market/economy is flush with liquidity. However, looking at asset valuations (unsustainably high IMO if you look at stocks, bonds, real estate and many hard assets) relative to the amount of financial leverage in the system, I think there is only one way for liquidity trends to flow in the future. I think this factor alone can and will derail the comic market at some point in the future, though it will cause so many other problems that falling comic book prices will be the least of our concerns.

 

 

I manage stocks for a living and can say without hesitation that when the market is up I am a bigger comic book buyer. When things are tough I pull in my horns

 

From my own experience, I agree completely. However, judging from many comments made on the Boards here, it doesn't seem like people here have much in the way of stock investments.

 

Gene

[drbanner]

For example, comics soared through most of the 2000-2003 period even as the stock market suffered. In fact, I am a firm believer that a lot of people fled the stock market during this period and particularly after 9/11 and put their money into real estate, collectibles or just plain spent it because they wanted to buy tangible items that they were comfortable with as opposed to seeing their highly intangible stock values evaporate.

 

Yeah, I gotta agree w/Gene. The period from 2000-2003 saw an unprecedented growth in comic book prices, at a time when the stock market was losing double digit percentage points annually. I don't recall anyone commenting that there was a "crash" in prices from 9/11 through the fall of '02, and from personal experience I certainly don't recall any books selling for LESS in the summer of '02 than they sold for in the summer of '01? Anyone?

 

However, when the stock market, and overall economy, is doing well, it certainly gives collectors an air of confidence to go out and spend the $$...

[delekkerste]

I don't recall anyone commenting that there was a "crash" in prices from 9/11 through the fall of '02, and from personal experience I certainly don't recall any books selling for LESS in the summer of '02 than they sold for in the summer of '01? Anyone?

 

I think a lot of books were soft from about September through December/January (I recall getting some pretty good deals around Thanksgiving of that year), but the market rebounded sharply afterwards as pre-Spidey movie hype (release date: May 2002) took over.

 

Gene

[clobberintime]

I think one of the major effects of this cycle is that it has made the value of these comics hard to determine - the guide seems to be meaningless and what is dictating the price is how the economy or stock market is doing. Books that moved slowly just 8 months ago sell for 2x the previous prices and sell within 48 hours! I guess the lesson is to get tuned into the markets and sell during these spikes and hope you don't run into trouble and need to sell during a lull. Imagine if that guy who had that incredible Spidey run with the #1 9.6 could have waited another year to sell instead of running it all thru Heritage - instead of losing about 40% of his investment, he may have made 10 or 15%! But no one predicted or could have guessed the price explosion of the last few months.

[sfilosa]

Are prices really moving significantly higher on all books, or is it really just the Key books?

 

Based on my analysis, I really see almost no movement in post-1965 books, regardless of grade. Yes, a super-high sale on a book here or there that rarely comes to the market, but for the most part, stagnant prices.

 

Please give examples if I'm incorrect.

 

 

[tth2]

However, I think the correlation is far from perfect. For example, comics soared through most of the 2000-2003 period even as the stock market suffered.

 

I'm not sure this is a good period to use to illustrate your point, because comic prices during this period were distorted by the advent of CGC and certified books. Silver was in a bad slump in 1999 (perhaps Gold and Bronze were too, but I don't follow those markets), even though the bull market had been roaring solidly since 1996. If CGC or a similar grading service had not come on the scene, I'm certain that we would not have seen the explosion in prices that has in fact occurred.

 

Perhaps a better period to use is the 1970s, which featured a horrendous stock market from 1973 to 1982(?), but which also saw steady appreciation in comic prices throughout the decade (along with real estate and other hard assets).

[Guest]

However, I think the correlation is far from perfect. For example, comics soared through most of the 2000-2003 period even as the stock market suffered.

 

I'm not sure this is a good period to use to illustrate your point, because comic prices during this period were distorted by the advent of CGC and certified books. Silver was in a bad slump in 1999 (perhaps Gold and Bronze were too, but I don't follow those markets), even though the bull market had been roaring solidly since 1996. If CGC or a similar grading service had not come on the scene, I'm certain that we would not have seen the explosion in prices that has in fact occurred.

 

Perhaps a better period to use is the 1970s, which featured a horrendous stock market from 1973 to 1982(?), but which also saw steady appreciation in comic prices throughout the decade (along with real estate and other hard assets).

 

The damage of the 1973 period occured entirely in the period of 1973-1974. It then made effectively no progress for 8 years until 1982, when it exploded. At that time dividends were quite high. So even though the market was effectivlely flat it generated a total return of almost 5-6%. The critical period to make a comparison in that era would have been 1974-1975, when I would have guessed comic book prices would have been soft due to wealth reduction considerations. 1976 on I would guess would have been steady, at least. I don't know the answer however. I do know nobody could sell cars either in 1973-1974 and I know my father was one day from losing his job along with a lot of other folks in the glory days of OPEC, Watergate and the end of Vietnam.

 

One very good point made is that while people keep calling for a comic book crash, my guess is that when it occurs, that will be the LEAST of your worries. This is one of those items that falls under the catagory of " be careful of what you wish for you just might get it". That is unless you enjoy eating cat food for supper.

 

The other point that bears repeating is the convergence of CGC and the period in question. Whether you like CGC or not (and I do as a matter of disclosure) it has changed comic books forever. The reason NM books are at explosive valuations is because the verocity of the grade can now be "guaranteed".

 

For those smart asses that think they can live without CGC try selling a "real" ASM 1 in 9.4 and see what you get for it. Then see what a CGC 9.4 of the same issue pulls in. Comic-Keys ought to have one soon I would guess

 

The point is simple: Just look at the census-9.4 and up books are relatively scarce. Where they are not scarce in census it is usually because a book graded to 9.0 or 9.2 would sell for less than the price of the slab and are therefore not submitted.

 

Anybody that has collected anything knows that higher grade items of anything (stamps, coins, comics, whatever) go for geometrically higher prices as grades go up. Why would anybody expect it to be different for comics. I am lucky enough to own 2 copies of ASM 1 in 8.0. I believe there are less than 60 copies that are better. Maybe there is still plenty of high grade stuff waiting to come out, but when I think that less than 60 copies of ASM exist in 8.5 or better, I feel as though I am in pretty rarified air. There are 11 in 9.4 or better. When you consider tens of thousands of folks collect Spider-Man it reasons that a a very high price might be paid for a book that hardly anybody can own. FF has only six copies in 9.4 or better.

 

I hear people talking baout high grade keys and prices in these forums like they are freely available. High grade silver is very, very hard to come by. The high prices paid for high grade bronze and modern is what has me scratching my head. Hulk 181 currently has OVER 200 copies in 9.4 or better. This is a book that is easily available in high grade. I suppose the low prices paid for gold has some people thinking there is value there (In many case NO graded 9.4 copies exist). I'm not sure. I think the market does a pretty good job of setting prices. I don't have a "real connection" to the golden era and therefore don't spend a lot of money there. The living among us are mostly going to have ties to Silver and Later, I wiould guess. That will create valuation drivers unavailable to all but high visibility Gold titles.

 

I have completed my ASM run in relative high grade. Anybody that knows me knows that my current fascination is with Marvel 30 and 35 cent variants. Now THAT is a niche where finding books n 9.4 is REALLY, REALLY TOUGH. Many can hardly be found in any grade. That sounds like a lot of fun!

[fantastic_four]

Anybody that knows me knows that my current fascination is with Marvel 30 and 35 cent variants. Now THAT is a niche where finding books n 9.4 is REALLY, REALLY TOUGH. Many can hardly be found in any grade. That sounds like a lot of fun!

 

It SOUNDS like a lot of fun, but once I actually get one of those things in my hand or field of vision, I think to myself...WTF is the difference? The font style and exact figure of the cover price? It seems like such an incredibly minor difference to make such a huge deal over.

 

But then again, the same argument goes for buying 9.6 versus 9.8...and a lot of people split that hair, too.

[Guest]

Anybody that knows me knows that my current fascination is with Marvel 30 and 35 cent variants. Now THAT is a niche where finding books n 9.4 is REALLY, REALLY TOUGH. Many can hardly be found in any grade. That sounds like a lot of fun!

 

It SOUNDS like a lot of fun, but once I actually get one of those things in my hand or field of vision, I think to myself...WTF is the difference? The font style and exact figure of the cover price? It seems like such an incredibly minor difference to make such a huge deal over.

 

But then again, the same argument goes for buying 9.6 versus 9.8...and a lot of people split that hair, too.

 

There is a whole thread on this in bronze, but the basic idea is this: Marvel price variants are some of the only bonafide variants in the market. These were part of a marketing stratagey by Marvel to test price increases in 1976 and 1977. The point at the time was to blanket a few small markets and see how they did with the higher price on the book. Most of the people in these markets presumably had no idea that they and only they were paying more. It was in Marvels's interest that the information not get out to collectors, otherwise their markeing results would be less usefull, I suppose.

 

99% of the variants you see today are "manufactured" variants. That is they are sold as such in a marketing scheme. There are other bona-fide variants, Whitman's notably, though I don't know the relative scarcity of those. A few people collect variants in both Marvel and DC containing "Mark Jewlers" inserts. A few cases exist where a title has just a couple of variant items.

 

For me the neat thing about the Marvel variants is:

 

1) They are relatively scarce

2) They are numerous enough to have a real collection. About 185 of both 30 and 35 cent specimens.

3) Wide range in pricing, a few bucks to thousands of dollars for titles like Star Wars 1 or Iron Fist 13. This allows low budget anbd high budget collectos to participate, creating great potential for an "upgrade" market!

4) If you collect ASM like I do, once I realized the existence of these books I just didn't feel like my collection was complete until I had the price variants. I just happened to go overboard.

 

Anyway, enough of my shameless self promotion of Bronze items in the Silver Forum!

[clobberintime]

Can't give any specific examples of how the current market has hyped up regular book prices but just check the beay sold items and just about anything 8.5 and above is bringing great if not insane prices. And now for the most painfully crazy prices of the day. $3900 for a 9.2 Journey into Mystery #89 on ComicLink! Now the last 89 9.0 I saw went for $1000 which is like double guide - as if the guiide means anything anyway. So approximatly 10x guide on a 9.2 - and it sold in a couple minutes from being posted from what I can tell. Ouch. Guess I will be sticking with my 8.5 for a long time at this rate.

[murph0]

Or perhaps you could find one raw from one of these hoards that supposedly exist?

 

Brian

[burntboy]

Can't give any specific examples of how the current market has hyped up regular book prices but just check the beay sold items and just about anything 8.5 and above is bringing great if not insane prices. And now for the most painfully crazy prices of the day. $3900 for a 9.2 Journey into Mystery #89 on ComicLink! Now the last 89 9.0 I saw went for $1000 which is like double guide - as if the guiide means anything anyway. So approximatly 10x guide on a 9.2 - and it sold in a couple minutes from being posted from what I can tell. Ouch. Guess I will be sticking with my 8.5 for a long time at this rate.

 

that price is outta sight but there are only 2 unrestored copies submitted higher, so far. what has happened to JIM??? FF i can understand due to some early movie excitement, but what's up with these??

 

my JIM's all look lovely to me which means they range from 8.0 to 9.0. my 89 is the same as yours and just 6 months ago they were fetching $300 in 8.5 condition. so i guess $3900 is pretty outlandish for a 9.2.

 

and once again this tends to indicate that this is becoming a numbers game...

[supapimp]

that's because JIM's are SUPAHOT™!

[blowout]

that price is outta sight but there are only 2 unrestored copies submitted higher, so far. what has happened to JIM??? FF i can understand due to some early movie excitement, but what's up with these??

 

 

Rampant speculation due to perceived rarity in high grade.