MS5 Record in the making

[Marvelous]

My take: the census number will only rise for GR 1 & MS 5. Will demand rise? I doubt it, this is Ghost Rider we're talking about! Ghost Rider!!! How many series has he had cancelled? Outside of a core cult following, who really cares???

 

GR, like any other Super-Hero character, can become popular if a good writer and artist is involved. I might be wrong, but didn't the Punisher have 3 series canceled (Punisher vol. 1, Punisher War Journal, Punisher War Zone)? I think there was a gap of a year or so between volume 1 and 2.

[Marvelous]

So stop waisting your time posting here trying to convince us, and go buy! If these books are such good investments at these prices, and are only going to go up and up,

 

I have bought and continue to buy. Are you saying you DON'T buy comics because you think they won't go up in value? Have you ever paid hundreds or thousands of dollars for a single comic? If so, why?

 

.....or it could be possible that you're trying to find justification for your bullish buying habits by drilling your incessant arguments into the ground, trying to keep up your personal delusions and trying to delude others.

 

Most of the stuff I bought in the last 5+ years has gone up in price. Probably by at least 30%. A lot of individual key bronze and silver have doubled or more in value since I bought them.

[Marvelous]

This isn't directed at you AK, just easiest to respond to the last post. I'm not arguing that the price for this book is going into the stratosphere. But could someone please explain how this is movie hype. The movie isn't even in preproduction. It's at the same stage as it has been for the last SIX YEARS. Talk and that's it. Cage has been talking about this movie since before he did Con Air for fus sake. The movie is at the same stage as the Subby movie and Iron Man movie and a dozen other projects that Marvel may or may not get off the ground. Is it just possible that this book is popular because it's cool and not easy to find in high grade. I don't even like GR and I have a 9.4 MS 5. I guess I'm only trying to make a point that not everything that takes off in price is driven by movie hype and speculators. Just my .02 though.

 

Ditto

[Marvelous]

Shrug. I've been buying. I think it's an excellent book, that's why I've owned 9 copies. If you come across any 9.4 or 9.6's with solid centering, I'll gladly buy.

 

Brian

 

Because you LIKE the book. You're a collector, and that's fine. But you honestly think this is reasonable for a 9.2 fron an "investment" standpoint?

 

Again, I have NO problem with a collector who buys for the LOVE of a book, and if the winner of the 9.2 is buying for that reason, then all the more power to him. But Marvelous is arguing from an investmet standpoint, and that's where I take issue.

 

Are you suggesting that he bought 9 copies of the book and it had nothing to do with making a good investment? I don't have 9 copies of it. I consider myself a collector 1st because I only buy stuff I like to read. I don't own a single DC or Independent comic for investment. My whole collection is strictly Marvel Super-Hero stuff which is the stuff I read as a kid and the stuff I still read as an adult. Very few, if any, in these forums a PURE collectors who buy only to read and enjoy and not invest. I am proud I invest in something that I also love. What could be better than that?

[Marvelous]

My take: the census number will only rise for GR 1 & MS 5. Will demand rise? I doubt it, this is Ghost Rider we're talking about! Ghost Rider!!! How many series has he had cancelled? Outside of a core cult following, who really cares???

 

That's exactly why a very high grade copy of this book is hard to find: a stiff character that has had no traction, a black cover, a period of time where Marvels in high grade at all are hard to find, and a general apathy in the buying public for a long time. I don't think there are lots of this book in high grade, I just don't - I NEVER see high grade copies of this (or Luke Cage 1, FF 122, FF 112, or any other black cover Marvel from the time period).

 

Ditto Ditto Ditto

[joe_collector]

OK JC, if current record prices from Golden to Modern 1980 keys aren't based on a supply that can't meet the high demand what are they based on? Comics don't continue to go up in value because people believe they are plentiful do they?

 

How long have you been collecting comics?

 

It would seem not long, as I could list off tons of examples of comics that experienced huge price spikes, but later settled down once the supply side reacted and equalized things.

 

Hulk 181 is a great example. Check the GPA for prices on 9.X issues and then do a timeline. It's pretty obvious that resale values are tanking, and as I predicted, you could have sold off a 8.0 during the movie hype, and then bought back a 9.2 for the same price, once the supply flew in to nab that payoff.

 

This is what WILL happen (and already has happened to some degree) with ASM 129, and this movie-based speculation demand has virtually nothing to do with overall supply. Once the movie hype subsides, real-world supply-and-demand forces will check back in, and the book will float back to previous price levels.

 

Bob Overstreet has written a few articles on this phenomenon, and that comic books have historically been far more demand-based than centered on supply. Speculation of any form is like a wild-card, and basically tosses out the real-world influences in favor of mindless aquisition. It's a blip, an anomaly, and if you peg your "funny book investments" on what some yahoo in Boise Idaho is spending his kid's education fund on, you deserve what you will get.

 

In terms of any Bronze Age comic, there will always be enough books to satisfy demand, but the CGC lead times (especially pre-75) can cause temporary "dead zones" where sellers wait to capitalize on the increasing prices. Then it all settles down, and the blip recedes into the background. Speculation overtakes "current supply", but Bronze comics are so plentiful, that the back-end submissions are more than enough to satisfy demand and lower prices.

 

ASM 129 should be a textbook example, and already I'm seeing a ton on ComicLink/EBay, some hoard-holders on EBay blowing off lots of raw issues, and the clock is running out on this puppy. I wouldn't even want to hazard a guess at how many high-grade copies of ASM 129 are at CGC right now.

 

But hey, if the price of ASM 129 continues to spiral post-movie, and supply doesn't increase, then you'll be right. I just wouldn't count on that happening.

[Marvelous]

I don't even like GR and I have a 9.4 MS 5. I guess I'm only trying to make a point that not everything that takes off in price is driven by movie hype and speculators.

 

I agree. And I'm not trying to bag on this book, but MMMarvelous is just a little too bullish for me to handle.

 

Just because I think MS #5 is a good investment I am bullish, huh? I bet the majority of the people in these boards also think it is a good investment. Are they bullish too? BTW I don't own 9 copies of MS #5. Don't be a hater because you don't own any yourself.

[Bronty]

"Most of the stuff I bought in the last 5+ years has gone up in price. Probably by at least 30%. A lot of individual key bronze and silver have doubled or more in value since I bought them. "

 

Well I sure as hell hope so! What marvels haven't gone up in price in the last five years??

 

JC, I think you're overstating the supply on this book though. It was tough in high grade pre cgc and it will continue to be tough post cgc (if you ignore the crapola 9.4s that cgc has passed out on this book). I do agree the current price level seems unjustified though. $600 for a 9.2? Too much.

 

PS greggy - it was the 9.6 I was talking about The 9.4 looked like a 8/8.5 Whatever.... you did have them longer so maybe you're in a better position to judge but they were both HUGE gifts; that's for sure.

 

Dan

[Marvelous]

If the ratio of poor grading that I've experienced on this book is held constant for all 9.4 submissions on the MS 5 census...

between 6-7 copies are accurate 9.4's.. :\

 

Brian

Astounding numbers!

 

That means MS #5 is even rarer in grade than the census shows. That just makes HG copies of that issue with high PQ that much more valuable. Just more reason why it is a great investment IMO.

[delekkerste]

I am proud I invest in something that I also love. What could be better than that?

 

Don't get emotional about your investments. 100 out of 100 people who do so will NEVER see a turn coming in the market because they won't want to see it coming.

 

And then, they will only compound their misery by employing every rationalization in the book to justify holding on or even buying more on the way down:

 

"I'm a long-term comic investor."

"Comic prices have always rebounded in the long run."

"Next year's Overstreet will bail me out."

"OK, maybe these comics aren't really investments after all, so I don't care that I'm losing my shirt. I bought 'em because I liked 'em in the first place!"

"Double down! Double down! I still haven't maxed out my credit card yet!"

"Yes! Another movie is in pre-production...now maybe I'll recoup some losses!"

"They're not making any more of these SA/BA keys! They *have* to rebound in price!"

"Ghost Rider rules!! Why can't these insufficiently_thoughtful_persons selling their MS 5s and GR 1s at half of last year's prices see that???"

"I saw a 12-year old kid at my LCS today - maybe the next generation of collectors will take these off my hands at cost!"

"It's OK - I'm only down 50% - I know other guys who are down way more than me."

"Whew, [insert major dealer's name of your choice here] says that it's just a blip and that prices willl come roaring back!"

 

Gene

[joe_collector]

JC, I think you're overstating the supply on this book though. It was tough in high grade pre cgc and it will continue to be tough post cgc (if you ignore the crapola 9.4s that cgc has passed out on this book).

 

But why should we ignore the CGC graded comics?

 

They have been put up on a pedestal, and the Supreme Arbiters of Comic Grading in other cases, but we're free to discount the 9.X numbers with this book?

 

A CGC 9.X is a CGC 9.X for the specs and investors, and based on the CGC grading, there are a ton of high-grade CGC-able MS5 copies out there.

[Bronty]

Yeah but at what price? Because the price has never been higher on this book. If you're buying to invest you sure as hell don't buy when the price is at a record high. How much higher would the price have to get for you to make a decent return? $1000 for a 9.2? $1200? If that happens 9.4s will be what, close to $2000? 9.6s at $3500? So my point is for you to make any money the prices would have to get patently insane.

[Marvelous]

OK JC, if current record prices from Golden to Modern 1980 keys aren't based on a supply that can't meet the high demand what are they based on? Comics don't continue to go up in value because people believe they are plentiful do they?

 

How long have you been collecting comics?

 

It would seem not long, as I could list off tons of examples of comics that experienced huge price spikes, but later settled down once the supply side reacted and equalized things.

 

Hulk 181 is a great example. Check the GPA for prices on 9.X issues and then do a timeline. It's pretty obvious that resale values are tanking, and as I predicted, you could have sold off a 8.0 during the movie hype, and then bought back a 9.2 for the same price, once the supply flew in to nab that payoff.

 

Typical JC, because I have a different opinion than you I must be a newbie, huh? Only JCs opinion counts because he has years of experience and anyone who thinks different must not have been collecting long because they don't agree with your superior knowledge of comics, huh? I think almost everyone would agree that the sharp up and down spikes before and after a movie shouldn't be considered a trend. Everyone knows that is typical and shouldn't be used to make a case that a market crash is coming.

 

This is what WILL happen (and already has happened to some degree) with ASM 129, and this movie-based speculation demand has virtually nothing to do with overall supply. Once the movie hype subsides, real-world supply-and-demand forces will check back in, and the book will float back to previous price levels.

 

Here's a thought. Don't buy comics during the run up to a movie release. I don't. Which is probably the case of most people in these boards.

 

Bob Overstreet has written a few articles on this phenomenon, and that comic books have historically been far more demand-based than centered on supply. Speculation of any form is like a wild-card, and basically tosses out the real-world influences in favor of mindless aquisition. It's a blip, an anomaly, and if you peg your "funny book investments" on what some yahoo in Boise Idaho is spending his kid's education fund on, you deserve what you will get.

 

Any predictions good or bad based on movie-hype sales should be ignored IMHO.

 

In terms of any Bronze Age comic, there will always be enough books to satisfy demand, but the CGC lead times (especially pre-75) can cause temporary "dead zones" where sellers wait to capitalize on the increasing prices. Then it all settles down, and the blip recedes into the background. Speculation overtakes "current supply", but Bronze comics are so plentiful, that the back-end submissions are more than enough to satisfy demand and lower prices.

 

If that was truly the case Bronze Age books would drop in value across the board. Highly sought after books like Hulk #181 would really drop in value because everyone would be selling to get the highest prices at the top of the bubble. That hasn't been the case. Hulk #181 continues to go up and value and the census grows at a snails pace that would require many decades to go by before a 1,000 9.4+ are found. There are thousands if not tens of thousands of people that want a HG copy of that book and 195 copies isn't enough to meet that demand.

 

ASM 129 should be a textbook example, and already I'm seeing a ton on ComicLink/EBay, some hoard-holders on EBay blowing off lots of raw issues, and the clock is running out on this puppy. I wouldn't even want to hazard a guess at how many high-grade copies of ASM 129 are at CGC right now.

 

But hey, if the price of ASM 129 continues to spiral post-movie, and supply doesn't increase, then you'll be right. I just wouldn't count on that happening.

 

Once again, movie hype should be used to determine what is going on in the market good or bad. Price fluctuations are to be expected and shouldn't be used to predict impending doom.

 

[joe_collector]

Typical JC, because I have a different opinion than you I must be a newbie, huh? Only JCs opinion counts because he has years of experience and anyone who thinks different must not have been collecting long because they don't agree with your superior knowledge of comics, huh?

 

Just answer the freaking question, rather than typing BS for 10 minutes.

 

Hulk #181 continues to go up and value

 

 

Ah, it's great to speak to a scrub-faced newbie about trends that obviously go far beyond their cranial capacity.

 

Hulk 181 prices HAVE NOT continued to go up in value. That's a fact Jack, and if you had been following these issues since CGC started, you'd know this.

[Marvelous]

Yeah but at what price? Because the price has never been higher on this book. If you're buying to invest you sure as hell don't buy when the price is at a record high. How much higher would the price have to get for you to make a decent return? $1000 for a 9.2? $1200? If that happens 9.4s will be what, close to $2000? 9.6s at $3500? So my point is for you to make any money the prices would have to get patently insane.

 

I bought my MS #5 9.4 at $300 3-4 years ago. I would have made money if I sold it a couple of years ago. I would make more money if I sold it now. I will even make more money if Marvel ever makes a movie and I sell during the hype. Has there ever been a crash that took away value gained by more than 25% of Gold, Silver, and Bronze comics over a long period of time? The crashes I am aware of was due to speculation on new comics, like Jim Lee's X-men #1 and Mc Farlane's Spawn back in the mid-90s. I don't speculate or invest in new comics, I read them.

[Marvelous]

Hulk #181 continues to go up and value

 

Hulk 181 prices HAVE NOT continued to go up in value. That's a fact Jack, and if you had been following these issues since CGC started, you'd know this.

 

 

Does anyone have sells records of Hulk #181 over the passed 30 years that shows JCs downward trend of its value? Can you buy a CGC 9.4 cheaper this year than you could last year? I am going to have start calling JC the bubble_boy because all of his predictions are based on price fluctuations during movie hype bubbles.

[joe_collector]

Does anyone have sells records of Hulk #181 over the passed 30 years that shows JCs downward trend of its value? Can you buy a CGC 9.4 cheaper this year than you could last year?

 

By posting this, it's obvious that you're just trolling, as only a person_having_a_hard_time_understanding_my_point could write something like this. We even had a thread devoted to how drastically CGC copies of Hulk 181 have fallen since the movie-hype period.

 

I'm done here, as I don't converse with either retards or trolls.

[Marvelous]

Does anyone have sells records of Hulk #181 over the passed 30 years that shows JCs downward trend of its value? Can you buy a CGC 9.4 cheaper this year than you could last year? I am going to have start calling JC the bubble_boy because all of his predictions are based on price fluctuations during movie hype bubbles.

 

By posting this, it's obvious that you're just trolling, as only a person_having_a_hard_time_understanding_my_point could write something like this. We even had a thread devoted to how drastically CGC copies of Hulk 181 have fallen since the movie-hype period.

 

I'm done here, as I don't converse with either retards or trolls.

 

Aww poor JC. sniff sniff Maybe if you didn't write stuff like this;

 

Ah, it's great to speak to a scrub-faced newbie about trends that obviously go far beyond their cranial capacity.

 

I wouldn't write stuff like I did above. If you throw flames, don't runaway crying like a baby when they come back to scorch you

 

[joe_collector]

[if you throw flames, don't runaway crying like a baby when they come back to scorch you

 

 

I'll have my 6-year old nephew post on here, so you can have someone of the same cranial capacity and collecting experience to talk to.

 

It's newbie speculators like you that make me want to give up comic collecting.

[Marvelous]

[if you throw flames, don't runaway crying like a baby when they come back to scorch you

 

 

I'll have my 6-year old nephew post on here, so you can have someone of the same cranial capacity and collecting experience to talk to.

 

It's newbie speculators like you that make me want to give up comic collecting.

 

Didn't you say you were done here Bubble_Boy? Guess you are a liar as well.