Saw this over in "Copper" - Miracleman #15

[delekkerste]

As for the sale, as I said in the Copper thread, congrats to the seller...but I really do want to know where all these buyers throwing around $45k+ offers were in 03-04 when it sold on ebay for $12K or thereabouts....and why these people think it's *now* worth so much more than it was *then.*

 

Perception has become reality. But, given that we are undeniably living in a world of asset price deflation, we'll see how long this "reality" lasts and how smart some of these purchases look a few years from now.

 

...what, then, the cover of Dark Knight Returns #1? (Arguably) the most single most important comic cover from the 1980's? $250K (I say easily, by now.) $500K? $1M? To the billionaire who wants it, and the seller who doesn't want to sell, where's the limit? Is there one?

 

I'm pretty sure the detailed, hand-drawn DKR #2 original cover would trump the price of the #1 cover. The #1 cover is by far the more memorable, but what does the original look like? At best it's a blue painted background with a lightning bolt and an all-black silhouette of Batman. But, who knows if it's even that - maybe they just pasted a Batman stat onto the background.

[comicartcom]

As for the sale, as I said in the Copper thread, congrats to the seller...but I really do want to know where all these buyers throwing around $45k+ offers were in 03-04 when it sold on ebay for $12K or thereabouts....and why these people think it's *now* worth so much more than it was *then.*

 

Art can only be compared to itself, after all. If the (arguably) most important cover from a relatively obscure series (and I say this as a collector who has pursued MM since 1990, when I first started collecting, and fully recognizing how groundbreaking it is) is worth $53K...after being worth only about $12K six or so years ago, and $600 four years before that...

 

...what, then, the cover of Dark Knight Returns #1? (Arguably) the most single most important comic cover from the 1980's? $250K (I say easily, by now.) $500K? $1M? To the billionaire who wants it, and the seller who doesn't want to sell, where's the limit? Is there one?

 

Hi there,

 

I responded to your question in the other thread, regarding my own personal story. However, I think this price escalation has been the "norm" for the key items in OA. For example, what would a Sandman splash from issue #1 have cost back in 2003? Not 20K. What would a Killing Joke page cost in 2003 (5K as I mentioned), compared to 2007 or 2008 (35K). What about Kirby FF? What about Byrne X-Menn covers at 20K versus 80-100K. What about the DD cover? Surely, we could have all bought a nice example for 20K back in 2003....

 

Just saying it's not so far out of the norm, and the run-up in market prices for OA has really occurred over the past decade... so the difference between 2003 and 2010 is enormous!

 

Hari

 

That's correct Hari.. it is beyond the beyond and many people including myself do not think it is a natural market (and why Ruben stated it's retarded).

 

The comics/art market has a certain unique quality that attempts to tie one event (say the sale of Action #1 at $1mil & 1.5mil) to everything else in the hobby and like a high tide, rise all boats. But the reality is that these events have nothing to do with each other.

RockMyAmadeus for instance makes some good points, however, what the MM cover sells for has absolutely nothing to do with what the cover to Dark Knight is worth for a number of reasons, the biggest one being that the buyer of the MM cover may not have one iota of interest in the DK cover. They might not even have any interest in any other MM cover

 

Also, buyers like to use some weird justifications for themselves as to why they bought something for a particular price and therefore why all other items must equally be high priced.

 

It's a falacy and why people don't put it into the same perspective as the housing market of 2000-2007 when homes tripled in "percieved" value (and even more in some markets). Now these house have fallen back to the pre-boom levels, and even lower. Houses here in Las Vegas can be bought for 1/4 of what they were selling for in 2007 and in the case of the house I used to live in, even less than when that house was new in 1999 (in 1999 it sold before building at $125k. during teh next 4 years while I lived in it it sold for $155k, $195k, $225k, $260k and finally $295k. It is currently on the market at $105k and the bank will of course take lower offers). Why anyone cannot see the comparisons is beyond me, but it is exactly what is happening in the market.

 

Even more, what one buyer who has a mountain of jack pays for something means nothing to the entirety of the market as he may be out as a buyer the next minute while the folks with modest incomes continue on for decades. As a % of any market, the well-heeled buyer is less than 5% of the population.

 

The uber-fast runup of prices during the past 5 years, as a business model,cannot last for a variety of reasons and that's why slow growth is a much healthier activity for any market. There must be a correction of prices at some point as was evidenced for instance when the Kirby glut of the early-mid '90s depressed that market. Too many pages available, not quite enough buyers at those levels, so the material just sat. In this hobby, people refuse to sell when they can't achieve what they want to. This is unlike other financial markets where gains and losses are expected. Losses in comics or comic art are unacceptable to collectors, so rather than lose, they sit. But that in itself is a form of loss as it is "dead money" that is not creating a benefit to the owner who might do better taking the loss and moving the cash elsewhere. These are the reasons that Ruben thinks it's retarded and why I think that it's built on a pyramid scheme of the greater fool theory. At some point the pyramid is peaked and then the market rolls down the side. It has to happen at some point and those that ignore this basic tenet of business are the ones who get jacked in the end.

 

(and the TTH's of the world who don't like what I write.. I say you should practice your rights, and don't read it)

[delekkerste]

Totally agree with you, Rich. I was going to post this in response to RMA's post in the MM #15 cover thread in the Copper forum, but figured people will care more over here. It echoes some of the points you made:

 

I know, I know, OA has gone crazy...but it's been crazy since the early 90's. There has to be an end somewhere, or we will soon be having routine sales in the millions....

 

I state with confidence that the OA market as a whole peaked in the summer of 2008. The tulipmania-like frenzy at the 2008 SDCC was, in my mind, the peak for the overall OA market to date.

 

Even if the MM #15 and DD #188 covers can still rake in the money now, that is largely a function of these covers not having been on the market for many years and adjusting to the pre-2008 inflation of prices for the first time. If these covers had sold in 2008 for what they just did (and, generally speaking, prices for A-quality material would have been just as strong, if not stronger, 2 years ago at the height of the unprecedented buying mania at that time), do people think they would sell for more if they were resold today? $125K for the DD #188 and $65K for the MM #15, maybe? Don't think so.

 

A-quality material that hasn't been on the market in a while can still command post-inflation prices (though, not necessarily as much as 2 years ago in some cases). Second, third and fourth tier material, with few exceptions, is undeniably weaker across the board since that time. Transaction volume, near as I can tell, has plummeted since 2008, and breadth is undeniably weaker (fewer and fewer winners in the market). These, as any astute observer can tell you, are not signs of a healthy market, and is generally a precursor to an across-the-board decline in prices. We saw very similar patterns with stocks a decade ago (the "average" stock peaked in 1998 even as the major averages peaked in early 2000 before the bubble burst and everything got pole-axed) and in real estate the past few years (which saw some markets like Manhattan hold up even as the Miamis and Las Vegas's of the world imploded...until finally NYC rolled over along with everything else).

[Nexus]

Just an FYI to all:

 

No deal was cut for anyone to buy the cover. If it did not hit reserve, it was not going to sell and the consigner was not going to get any money. End of story.

 

Now......Congrats to all who won (and enjoy) any art they got! (thumbs u

 

Thanks for this info, Steve. Nice to get confirmation, one way or the other.

 

If Hari is correct, and the consignor had multiple private $45K offers (were they all cash?), then yes, he did cost himself quite a bit by going the auction route. Sometimes the open receiver is the better play than the Hail Mary.

[Bronty]

Well there's many different ways of looking at it Felix... without the cover the rest of the pieces would have gotten attention, but nowhere near this much. Would selling the cover privately have cost him on the other lots due to fewer eyeballs on the auction? Maybe he wanted to liquidate everything in which case the auction route may have been the best play? Tough to say and any way you slice it he's got to be one happy boy with the amount of money made in a short time period

[Nexus]

Hey Rich,

 

Can't say I disagree with you at all in what you write. The financial part of the OA equation makes zero sense in real world terms. But I'm not going to pretend I know exactly what's going to happen in the near future. Everyone should just collect at their own comfort level (i.e. what they can afford to lose!).

 

Regarding your spat with TTH2...all I can tell you is, he's a thoughtful, well-written poster (much in the vein of Gene, of whom you appear to be a fan). And I have to agree with his assessment. (I don't know him at all, btw, outside of his posts...if I've ever PM'd him, it'd be less than I've done with you!) I've mentioned "sour grapes" in the past. You do come off bitter. You may not care, but that's what he was talking about and he's not alone. If OA as an art form is garbage, and it's overvalued, and the collectors are fools...why exactly are you here?

 

BTW...that was funny that you took a page out of Lambo's playbook in his spanking of you last year in the "X-MEN #2 splash" thread (i.e. telling TTH2 not to read your posts the way Lambo told you to stay out of that thread if you didn't like it). You can teach an old dog new tricks after all.

 

Felix

[Nexus]

Well there's many different ways of looking at it Felix... without the cover the rest of the pieces would have gotten attention, but nowhere near this much. Would selling the cover privately have cost him on the other lots due to fewer eyeballs on the auction? Maybe he wanted to liquidate everything in which case the auction route may have been the best play? Tough to say and any way you slice it he's got to be one happy boy with the amount of money made in a short time period

 

Very true, Dan. However, it appears the buyers of the pages are the same Moore/MM cultists (including me) who were aware of them prior to auction. So I'm not entirely sure any of the attention created by the auction mattered in the end. This is a niche market we're talking about. But yes, going the auction route was an expedient way to liquidate.

[jbud73]

Totally agree with you, Rich. I was going to post this in response to RMA's post in the MM #15 cover thread in the Copper forum, but figured people will care more over here. It echoes some of the points you made:

 

I know, I know, OA has gone crazy...but it's been crazy since the early 90's. There has to be an end somewhere, or we will soon be having routine sales in the millions....

 

I state with confidence that the OA market as a whole peaked in the summer of 2008. The tulipmania-like frenzy at the 2008 SDCC was, in my mind, the peak for the overall OA market to date.

 

Even if the MM #15 and DD #188 covers can still rake in the money now, that is largely a function of these covers not having been on the market for many years and adjusting to the pre-2008 inflation of prices for the first time. If these covers had sold in 2008 for what they just did (and, generally speaking, prices for A-quality material would have been just as strong, if not stronger, 2 years ago at the height of the unprecedented buying mania at that time), do people think they would sell for more if they were resold today? $125K for the DD #188 and $65K for the MM #15, maybe? Don't think so.

 

A-quality material that hasn't been on the market in a while can still command post-inflation prices (though, not necessarily as much as 2 years ago in some cases). Second, third and fourth tier material, with few exceptions, is undeniably weaker across the board since that time. Transaction volume, near as I can tell, has plummeted since 2008, and breadth is undeniably weaker (fewer and fewer winners in the market). These, as any astute observer can tell you, are not signs of a healthy market, and is generally a precursor to an across-the-board decline in prices. We saw very similar patterns with stocks a decade ago (the "average" stock peaked in 1998 even as the major averages peaked in early 2000 before the bubble burst and everything got pole-axed) and in real estate the past few years (which saw some markets like Manhattan hold up even as the Miamis and Las Vegas's of the world imploded...until finally NYC rolled over along with everything else).

 

 

Gene,

 

As always enjoy your posts and while I don't pretend to have the same experienced in sight into market analysis as you do, I will say that every market has unique nuances and the OA market is not different in that regard.

 

If we agree that SDCC was the apex it is still hard to ascertain where OA is today with fewer analysis tools, so much trade and very little if no regulation. Of course the overall market is far smaller and niche than other markets that have those facets about them. I have to say that my spider sense is tingling lately; I often ascribe you and Rino (Steve) to the Angel and Devil on my shoulder reinforcing buy it / don't buy it scenarios.

 

All that said I also think some of the best advice is that OA item X can be loved at 5K and avoided at 10K, though the nostalgia can still tug at those purse strings. Sometimes a collector's greatest asset is their spider sense, which should be a manifestation of a lot of research and over the past 6 months mine has been tingling with relief over the pieces I did NOT purchase after the initial wore off. That means less than zero from a prognostication stand point (I mean I still wish the Perez panel was mine) but not at almost 4K.

 

Hope all is well,

 

Jason

[pkveronese]

A little off subject now, but does anyone know the whereabouts of this MM #15 page?

 

 

- Keith Veronese

[Bronty]

oooooooooo nice one

[RockMyAmadeus]

Well there's many different ways of looking at it Felix... without the cover the rest of the pieces would have gotten attention, but nowhere near this much. Would selling the cover privately have cost him on the other lots due to fewer eyeballs on the auction?

 

This is a hugely important point. It was very, very successful bait, even if it hadn't sold.

 

Savvy sellers...from Heritage on down to eBay dealers...do this sort of thing all the time.

[RockMyAmadeus]

As for the sale, as I said in the Copper thread, congrats to the seller...but I really do want to know where all these buyers throwing around $45k+ offers were in 03-04 when it sold on ebay for $12K or thereabouts....and why these people think it's *now* worth so much more than it was *then.*

 

Perception has become reality. But, given that we are undeniably living in a world of asset price deflation, we'll see how long this "reality" lasts and how smart some of these purchases look a few years from now.

 

Who knows, they may look downright prescient. Or, they could, Jay Parrino style, divebomb.

 

...what, then, the cover of Dark Knight Returns #1? (Arguably) the most single most important comic cover from the 1980's? $250K (I say easily, by now.) $500K? $1M? To the billionaire who wants it, and the seller who doesn't want to sell, where's the limit? Is there one?

 

I'm pretty sure the detailed, hand-drawn DKR #2 original cover would trump the price of the #1 cover. The #1 cover is by far the more memorable, but what does the original look like? At best it's a blue painted background with a lightning bolt and an all-black silhouette of Batman. But, who knows if it's even that - maybe they just pasted a Batman stat onto the background.

 

Well...that's really just a technical argument. The point remains.

 

I cannot confirm this, but my vague recollection is that it's a watercolor with Bats drawn by Miller in the outline seen.

 

I haven't seen the cover discussed in well over 10 years, so I may be off completely.

 

But the inked (by Miller) and water-colored (by Varley) page would still be worth a fortune, even in its stark, minimalist beauty.

[RockMyAmadeus]

The tulipmania-like frenzy at the 2008 SDCC was, in my mind, the peak for the overall OA market to date.

 

That's the analogy I've been searching for. That's precisely it.

 

[tth2]

I state with confidence that the OA market as a whole peaked in the summer of 2008. The tulipmania-like frenzy at the 2008 SDCC was, in my mind, the peak for the overall OA market to date.

Not to sound like KK, but you've kind of been saying that OA has been in a state of tulipmania for years now, well before 2008.

 

Just out of curiosity, what are some of the highwater marks reached in 2008 that you think would not be replicable today?

[RockMyAmadeus]

RockMyAmadeus for instance makes some good points, however, what the MM cover sells for has absolutely nothing to do with what the cover to Dark Knight is worth for a number of reasons, the biggest one being that the buyer of the MM cover may not have one iota of interest in the DK cover. They might not even have any interest in any other MM cover

 

You misunderstand my comparison.

 

It has nothing to do with, and makes no assumption about, the buyer of the MM #15 cover, or his interest therein.

 

My comparison has to do with a market perception (and here's where I talk about the market as a living, breathing entity, which apparently drives some people batty.) That market perception looks at the sale price of an MM #15, gauges it's relative importance in "the Grand Scheme of 80's OA" and then makes judgements about the entire market that are completely erroneous, because they're based entirely on the intitial analysis of the one piece in question.

 

The thinking goes something like this:

 

Buyer: "Gosh, did you see how much that MM #15 cover sold for? It must really be important/valuable. I better go find a copy to see what all the fuss is about."

 

Seller: "Wow, man, cover sold for $53K?? My original Swamp Thing page from issue #42 must really be worth a lot, too! I better up my asking price!"

 

Buyers/Sellers: "Wow, that MM #15 cover sold for $53K. Someone must have really wanted it. I guess, since the cover to DKR #1 or Killing Joke or Watchmen #1 or Crisis on Infinite Earths #1 or Amazing Spiderman #300 or Wolverine #1 or Turtles #1, since they're more important covers than MM #15 (and they very much are), they must be worth much more than that!"

 

And thus...as Gene point out...perception becomes reality. Quod erat demonstrandum.

 

Also, buyers like to use some weird justifications for themselves as to why they bought something for a particular price and therefore why all other items must equally be high priced.

 

Sellers do the exact same thing. No one is immune to it.

 

"This copy of Avengers #1 in 9.4 just sold for umpteen million dollars. That must mean my 1.5 copy is worth more, too!"

 

Even more, what one buyer who has a mountain of jack pays for something means nothing to the entirety of the market as he may be out as a buyer the next minute while the folks with modest incomes continue on for decades. As a % of any market, the well-heeled buyer is less than 5% of the population.

 

It doesn't matter, because the market does not operate in a vacuum. If that buyer of the MM #15 cover had never bought anything even remotely comics related before, and never bought anything else ever again, his actions would STILL have ripple effects up and down the market, because the market is an entity. What affects one part, affects everything, to varying degrees (from the immediate and intense to the barely perceptible.)

 

Essentially, I agree with the rest of your points.

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Well there's many different ways of looking at it Felix... without the cover the rest of the pieces would have gotten attention, but nowhere near this much. Would selling the cover privately have cost him on the other lots due to fewer eyeballs on the auction? Maybe he wanted to liquidate everything in which case the auction route may have been the best play? Tough to say and any way you slice it he's got to be one happy boy with the amount of money made in a short time period

 

Very true, Dan. However, it appears the buyers of the pages are the same Moore/MM cultists (including me) who were aware of them prior to auction. So I'm not entirely sure any of the attention created by the auction mattered in the end. This is a niche market we're talking about. But yes, going the auction route was an expedient way to liquidate.

 

If I hadn't seen the post about the #15 cover, I would have been unaware of the other items being sold, not being a regular surfer of Heritage. There's only so much time in a day, after all. And I'm as much of a Moore/MM cultist as anyone else, I daresay.

 

So, in that sense, it did draw in at least one more pair of interested eyeballs. I can't be the only one...

[Bronty]

As for the sale, as I said in the Copper thread, congrats to the seller...but I really do want to know where all these buyers throwing around $45k+ offers were in 03-04 when it sold on ebay for $12K or thereabouts....and why these people think it's *now* worth so much more than it was *then.*

 

Perception has become reality. But, given that we are undeniably living in a world of asset price deflation, we'll see how long this "reality" lasts and how smart some of these purchases look a few years from now.

 

Who knows, they may look downright prescient. Or, they could, Jay Parrino style, divebomb.

 

...what, then, the cover of Dark Knight Returns #1? (Arguably) the most single most important comic cover from the 1980's? $250K (I say easily, by now.) $500K? $1M? To the billionaire who wants it, and the seller who doesn't want to sell, where's the limit? Is there one?

 

I'm pretty sure the detailed, hand-drawn DKR #2 original cover would trump the price of the #1 cover. The #1 cover is by far the more memorable, but what does the original look like? At best it's a blue painted background with a lightning bolt and an all-black silhouette of Batman. But, who knows if it's even that - maybe they just pasted a Batman stat onto the background.

 

Well...that's really just a technical argument. The point remains.

 

I cannot confirm this, but my vague recollection is that it's a watercolor with Bats drawn by Miller in the outline seen.

 

I haven't seen the cover discussed in well over 10 years, so I may be off completely.

 

But the inked (by Miller) and water-colored (by Varley) page would still be worth a fortune, even in its stark, minimalist beauty.

 

just curious... did you see it in person?

 

also, not that it really matters, but from my own vague memory (as I don't have my copy in front of me to look at) I'd venture the blue background is airbrushed acrylic as opposed to watercolor. you get a MUCH smoother tonal blend with the airbrush

[tth2]

RockMyAmadeus for instance makes some good points, however, what the MM cover sells for has absolutely nothing to do with what the cover to Dark Knight is worth for a number of reasons, the biggest one being that the buyer of the MM cover may not have one iota of interest in the DK cover. They might not even have any interest in any other MM cover

 

You misunderstand my comparison.

 

It has nothing to do with, and makes no assumption about, the buyer of the MM #15 cover, or his interest therein.

 

My comparison has to do with a market perception (and here's where I talk about the market as a living, breathing entity, which apparently drives some people batty.) That market perception looks at the sale price of an MM #15, gauges it's relative importance in "the Grand Scheme of 80's OA" and then makes judgements about the entire market that are completely erroneous, because they're based entirely on the intitial analysis of the one piece in question.

 

The thinking goes something like this:

 

Buyer: "Gosh, did you see how much that MM #15 cover sold for? It must really be important/valuable. I better go find a copy to see what all the fuss is about."

 

Seller: "Wow, man, cover sold for $53K?? My original Swamp Thing page from issue #42 must really be worth a lot, too! I better up my asking price!"

 

Buyers/Sellers: "Wow, that MM #15 cover sold for $53K. Someone must have really wanted it. I guess, since the cover to DKR #1 or Killing Joke or Watchmen #1 or Crisis on Infinite Earths #1 or Amazing Spiderman #300 or Wolverine #1 or Turtles #1, since they're more important covers than MM #15 (and they very much are), they must be worth much more than that!"

 

And thus...as Gene point out...perception becomes reality. Quod erat demonstrandum.

 

Also, buyers like to use some weird justifications for themselves as to why they bought something for a particular price and therefore why all other items must equally be high priced.

 

Sellers do the exact same thing. No one is immune to it.

 

"This copy of Avengers #1 in 9.4 just sold for umpteen million dollars. That must mean my 1.5 copy is worth more, too!"

 

Even more, what one buyer who has a mountain of jack pays for something means nothing to the entirety of the market as he may be out as a buyer the next minute while the folks with modest incomes continue on for decades. As a % of any market, the well-heeled buyer is less than 5% of the population.

 

It doesn't matter, because the market does not operate in a vacuum. If that buyer of the MM #15 cover had never bought anything even remotely comics related before, and never bought anything else ever again, his actions would STILL have ripple effects up and down the market, because the market is an entity. What affects one part, affects everything, to varying degrees (from the immediate and intense to the barely perceptible.)

 

Essentially, I agree with the rest of your points.

 

There seems to be an underlying tone of disapproval in your post as you're describing people using benchmarks to come up with values of other pieces of art. I mean, how else can people come up with values for art? It's not like there's some revenue stream to plug into a financial valuation model, or any intrinsic value. All you can do is see what others are willing to pay for a comparable piece of art and extrapolate from that.

[rob_react]

For what ever reason, MM is the only major Moore work I've never read but your passion is infectious and I'm going to go out now and get myself a reprint and see what I've been missing.

You absolutely must! It was an insanely good series.

 

It's a great series, but err.. there are no reprints! You'd have to pay full retail for the individual issues!

 

Malvin

I`m amazed they`re not available in reprints, but in any event, the entire run is dirt cheap in raw.

 

It pushes $400 routinely raw for a 24 issue run. Olympus (11-16) typical goes for $150 to 200 raw as a run. Not what I would call dirt cheap.

 

The trades are even expensive. I sold the set a many years ago for maybe $150-200

[pkveronese]

Anybody on board win the Miracleman #15 prelim lot (the 3 prelim MM vs. KM lot)? If so, would you want to trade or sell this prelim out of the lot?

 

 

 

 

I could do cash or trade if you're out there and interested (I've got some Totleben Prelims from MM #14 if you want to keep it similiar). Shoot me a PM or e-mail at veronesepk@gmail.com if you are. Thanks! - Keith Veronese