1983 prices VS 10 years from now?

[mt1000]

I also remeber being like 12 and went to a Con with my mom and i saw a ASM 1 for i think 5K and i was like holy mess, it was NM (or there definition of NM way before CGC). If only we knew now what we could have known then,

What gets me is how so many people continue to fail to learn from this. They still nickel and dime on books and lose out, only to see the book move up so much over the next few years that the additional $10, or $100, or $1000, that they were unwilling to pay wouldn't have made any difference because they would've made back their money many times over. But all they do is lament how they let a book get away, but then they never seem to learn from their experience and continue to be a cheapskate and lose out on books.

 

Sure, everybody likes to feel like they got themselves a bargain, but the history of comic collecting has shown that in the vast majority of cases, when you're buying quality vintage books and not speculative books like mid-80s B&Ws or Valiants, that amount that you overpaid won't matter in the long run.

 

I have a saying: "10 years from now, today will be '10 years ago'." If you really want something, go for it and don't sweat the small change.

 

Trust me if i had the money i probably would have bought it but i was too young. Everyone everyday tells me im stupid for spending this much money on these books, and even after showing details and facts about the values at the end of the day its all about what makes YOU happy.

[goldust40]

I was reading the Jan 1983 issue for Green Lantern #160 today. I may have been only 10 years old when this book came out, but if I had the $$ I would have bought these in a heartbeat. $700 Hulk #1 & $8250 for Superman #1. I assume they were NM (9.2) prices.

Since I was in college at the time, I can guarantee that you wouldn't have been paying those prices in a heartbeat at the time, unless you were particularly bold or particularly wealthy. Those prices only look great in hindsight. At the time, they would have been considered to be fully valued (assuming you could even find them in grade, which you probably couldn't, just like you can't now).

 

 

I was a freshman in college in January 1983. People thought 10K for a comic was the highest price you'd ever see.

 

What a lot of folks don't know (but which I'm sure you do) is that, in the mid-80's, becaue of the run-up in Marvel prices from the late 70's, the market actually CORRECTED for all Silver Age Marvel. From 1983-1986, prices for all SA Marvels were stable, or went DOWN.

 

 

Strange, but true.

 

True indeed...check your 80s Overstreets - for example FF 48 in NM was $30 in 1983, and had gone up one whole dollar by 1988. The market for SA back then (for the most part) was flat. It all changed in '89...

[delekkerste]

Sure, everybody likes to feel like they got themselves a bargain, but the history of comic collecting has shown that in the vast majority of cases, when you're buying quality vintage books and not speculative books like mid-80s B&Ws or Valiants, that amount that you overpaid won't matter in the long run.

 

I have a saying: "10 years from now, today will be '10 years ago'." If you really want something, go for it and don't sweat the small change.

 

I have a saying too: "Past performance is not a guarantee of future results". I know you disagree, but even if people thought prices were "insane" in 1980, the fact is that they were a minuscule fraction vs. incomes compared to where they are today. I don't doubt that the psychology was more skeptical back then, as meaningful numbers hadn't been paid before in the hobby, but, even so, the numbers simply do not lie. Not to mention, you get out-sized gains when negative market psychology has been ingrained for a long time (where we were 30 years ago), not when things are as ebullient as they have been in recent years. For what you are saying about the past being prologue to prove true again, you have to assume that quality vintage books will continue to outstrip income growth indefinitely and that a tipping point will never be reached.

 

I think the reality is that we're seeing numerous secular trends that have persisted for decades now come to an end. These are trends that have been so persistent and ingrained in society that almost everyone takes them to be the norm - easy credit, rising incomes and standards of living, lower bond yields, rising real estate, stock and other asset prices, secure pensions, low unemployment, cheap energy prices, etc. - all of the things that promote an environment which supports a long-term gain in real asset prices.

 

Well, I fibbed a bit, of course. Most of those multi-decade trends that we once took for granted have already started to reverse in the past few years - as will comics likely (I've already posted in a couple of threads a number of examples of major GA books which have taken hits in the past year, even as Action 1 and Tec 27 have continued to soar. Others chimed in indicting recent Silver Age key performance).

 

Whereas it may have been considered folly to spend $20K on comics in 1980, doing so in 2010 doesn't even make you a player. My friends, we have come full circle. We have reached the tipping point. It took 30 years, but we went from extreme fear at spending a small amount of one's income on comics (even on the very best books in the hobby) to no fear at borrowing and spending a large amount on almost anything.

 

Anyone thinking the next 30 years will look anything at all like the past 30 years will likely wind up very disappointed, in all facets of life, including comic collecting.

[Larryw7]

When I went to conventions as a 10 year old kid, even forty bucks for a high grade Batman #37 was out of reach. The comics I want are always more expensive than how much money I have to spend.

[SuperBird]

When I went to conventions as a 10 year old kid, even forty bucks for a high grade Batman #37 was out of reach. The comics I want are always more expensive than how much money I have to spend.

 

yup, totally agree. The 80s prices seem cheap now, but I couldn't afford comics that cost more than $5-10 each back then.

[ft88]

For those with rose colored glasses on future prices of comics, I suggest you find a Beckett from 1993 and check out baseball card prices then compared to now. Or a stamp guide from 1983. Or a coin guide from the same. For those that were collecting in the 1980s we should feel lucky that what we still have over those years has appreciated so much and the hobby has expanded so rapidly. How much would it suck to be a stamp collector these past 30 years.

 

Also, while I was first collecting pretty good in 1985 the market feeling was different back then. For the most part Westerns, War, Romance, and even many Horror books were seen as unworthy in all ages. Fantasy and superhero were all the rage. Hot artists were being pushed and the Cochoran books and collections were being put out right around then so EC and Barks stuff was pretty hot.

 

And restoration in many instances was not even discounted at all from guide price so there would be a high likelihood that in buying a Superman 1 you'd now have a moderate restored book. Grade inflation was rampant and paying multiples of guide was common enough even back then.

 

So the average collector in 1983 was probably buying early Conan (issue 3 with limited distribution anyone?) Star Wars, Captain Marvel (Stalin) and in Golden Age was buying a restored WDCS 31 or FC 9 and a mid grade Worlds Best #1. Plus he'd have a box of 50 Dazzler #1s to help fund his kids college education in 20 years.

 

I can remember buying an X-men 100 in about VFNM at a convention in 1986 for $30 and it might be worth $60 today. I also bought Spiderman 51-99 run for $2 each and I'd guess theyd sell for an avergae $15 each today. Again a great investment but nothing spectacular on a 15 year timeframe.

[ComicConnoisseur]

For those with rose colored glasses on future prices of comics, I suggest you find a Beckett from 1993 and check out baseball card prices then compared to now. Or a stamp guide from 1983. Or a coin guide from the same. For those that were collecting in the 1980s we should feel lucky that what we still have over those years has appreciated so much and the hobby has expanded so rapidly. How much would it suck to be a stamp collector these past 30 years.

 

Also, while I was first collecting pretty good in 1985 the market feeling was different back then. For the most part Westerns, War, Romance, and even many Horror books were seen as unworthy in all ages. Fantasy and superhero were all the rage. Hot artists were being pushed and the Cochoran books and collections were being put out right around then so EC and Barks stuff was pretty hot.

 

And restoration in many instances was not even discounted at all from guide price so there would be a high likelihood that in buying a Superman 1 you'd now have a moderate restored book. Grade inflation was rampant and paying multiples of guide was common enough even back then.

 

So the average collector in 1983 was probably buying early Conan (issue 3 with limited distribution anyone?) Star Wars, Captain Marvel (Stalin) and in Golden Age was buying a restored WDCS 31 or FC 9 and a mid grade Worlds Best #1. Plus he'd have a box of 50 Dazzler #1s to help fund his kids college education in 20 years.

 

I can remember buying an X-men 100 in about VFNM at a convention in 1986 for $30 and it might be worth $60 today. I also bought Spiderman 51-99 run for $2 each and I'd guess theyd sell for an avergae $15 each today. Again a great investment but nothing spectacular on a 15 year timeframe.

Good points but 1983 was 27 years ago, when I look at comic prices from 5 to 8 years ago according to the GPA most comicbook prices have either went down or are stagnant. an ounce of gold bought 5 to 8 years ago would have been more profitable but that`s for another thread somewhere.

[tth2]

Sure, everybody likes to feel like they got themselves a bargain, but the history of comic collecting has shown that in the vast majority of cases, when you're buying quality vintage books and not speculative books like mid-80s B&Ws or Valiants, that amount that you overpaid won't matter in the long run.

 

I have a saying: "10 years from now, today will be '10 years ago'." If you really want something, go for it and don't sweat the small change.

 

I have a saying too: "Past performance is not a guarantee of future results". I know you disagree, but even if people thought prices were "insane" in 1980, the fact is that they were a minuscule fraction vs. incomes compared to where they are today. I don't doubt that the psychology was more skeptical back then, as meaningful numbers hadn't been paid before in the hobby, but, even so, the numbers simply do not lie. Not to mention, you get out-sized gains when negative market psychology has been ingrained for a long time (where we were 30 years ago), not when things are as ebullient as they have been in recent years. For what you are saying about the past being prologue to prove true again, you have to assume that quality vintage books will continue to outstrip income growth indefinitely and that a tipping point will never be reached.

 

I think the reality is that we're seeing numerous secular trends that have persisted for decades now come to an end. These are trends that have been so persistent and ingrained in society that almost everyone takes them to be the norm - easy credit, rising incomes and standards of living, lower bond yields, rising real estate, stock and other asset prices, secure pensions, low unemployment, cheap energy prices, etc. - all of the things that promote an environment which supports a long-term gain in real asset prices.

 

Well, I fibbed a bit, of course. Most of those multi-decade trends that we once took for granted have already started to reverse in the past few years - as will comics likely (I've already posted in a couple of threads a number of examples of major GA books which have taken hits in the past year, even as Action 1 and Tec 27 have continued to soar. Others chimed in indicting recent Silver Age key performance).

 

Whereas it may have been considered folly to spend $20K on comics in 1980, doing so in 2010 doesn't even make you a player. My friends, we have come full circle. We have reached the tipping point. It took 30 years, but we went from extreme fear at spending a small amount of one's income on comics (even on the very best books in the hobby) to no fear at borrowing and spending a large amount on almost anything.

 

Anyone thinking the next 30 years will look anything at all like the past 30 years will likely wind up very disappointed, in all facets of life, including comic collecting.

But you were saying all of these things with the absolute same certainty when I joined the boards in late 2003. If someone had followed your Dr Doom routine on comics, they would`ve left a LOT of money on the table. In fact, I would be inconsolable today for passing on comics at prices that seemed crazy at the time but seem crazily cheap today.

 

What makes you so sure you`re any less wrong today than you were 7 years ago?

[tth2]

And restoration in many instances was not even discounted at all from guide price so there would be a high likelihood that in buying a Superman 1 you'd now have a moderate restored book. Grade inflation was rampant and paying multiples of guide was common enough even back then.

And that actually proves my point the best. Guess what, even if you had paid the unrestored asking price for that Superman 1 in 1985, submitted it to CGC today adn received a PLOD, you`d still be ahead. As far ahead as if it was unrestored? No, but still ahead.

[rjpb]

I I assume they were NM (9.2) prices.

 

No, those prices were for MINT books!

 

...

 

I was actually thinking those were restored 5.0 prices

 

 

Just pointing out that "NM" and "9.2" were unknown concepts back in 1983. "NM" maybe, but 9.2 fo sho.

 

(thumbs u

 

NM was commonly used in 1983, and long before. As loose as grading was back then, it was clear that most books, even nice ones, were short of actual Mint. NM- (9.2) was pretty much unheard of, though people did use +/- grades ( mostly just +) and split grades, but NM- was probably splitting the hair between VF/NM and NM too thin.

 

Even as late as the mid 90's there was debate in the letter pages of CBM as too whether both +/- grades and split grades should be used or just one or the other.

[tth2]

Sure, everybody likes to feel like they got themselves a bargain, but the history of comic collecting has shown that in the vast majority of cases, when you're buying quality vintage books and not speculative books like mid-80s B&Ws or Valiants, that amount that you overpaid won't matter in the long run.

 

I have a saying: "10 years from now, today will be '10 years ago'." If you really want something, go for it and don't sweat the small change.

 

I have a saying too: "Past performance is not a guarantee of future results". I know you disagree, but even if people thought prices were "insane" in 1980, the fact is that they were a minuscule fraction vs. incomes compared to where they are today. I don't doubt that the psychology was more skeptical back then, as meaningful numbers hadn't been paid before in the hobby, but, even so, the numbers simply do not lie. Not to mention, you get out-sized gains when negative market psychology has been ingrained for a long time (where we were 30 years ago), not when things are as ebullient as they have been in recent years. For what you are saying about the past being prologue to prove true again, you have to assume that quality vintage books will continue to outstrip income growth indefinitely and that a tipping point will never be reached.

 

I think the reality is that we're seeing numerous secular trends that have persisted for decades now come to an end. These are trends that have been so persistent and ingrained in society that almost everyone takes them to be the norm - easy credit, rising incomes and standards of living, lower bond yields, rising real estate, stock and other asset prices, secure pensions, low unemployment, cheap energy prices, etc. - all of the things that promote an environment which supports a long-term gain in real asset prices.

 

Well, I fibbed a bit, of course. Most of those multi-decade trends that we once took for granted have already started to reverse in the past few years - as will comics likely (I've already posted in a couple of threads a number of examples of major GA books which have taken hits in the past year, even as Action 1 and Tec 27 have continued to soar. Others chimed in indicting recent Silver Age key performance).

 

Whereas it may have been considered folly to spend $20K on comics in 1980, doing so in 2010 doesn't even make you a player. My friends, we have come full circle. We have reached the tipping point. It took 30 years, but we went from extreme fear at spending a small amount of one's income on comics (even on the very best books in the hobby) to no fear at borrowing and spending a large amount on almost anything.

 

Anyone thinking the next 30 years will look anything at all like the past 30 years will likely wind up very disappointed, in all facets of life, including comic collecting.

But you were saying all of these things with the absolute same certainty when I joined the boards in late 2003. If someone had followed your Dr Doom routine on comics, they would`ve left a LOT of money on the table. In fact, I would be inconsolable today for passing on comics at prices that seemed crazy at the time but seem crazily cheap today.

 

What makes you so sure you`re any less wrong today than you were 7 years ago?

And since I`m on a roll, I should point out that in 1995, there was someone saying the same things and trotting out the same stats to back up their points. And in 1985. And probably 1975 and 1965.

 

And no I`m not in the tank for a rising market, Gene. If anything, I`d be perfectly happy if prices collapsed, seeing as I`ve sold off big chunks of my collection over the past 3 years.

 

So here`s another well-known saying for you that`s fraught with danger: "It`s different this time" (kind of turned on its head ).

[rjpb]

As has been pointed out - few people had the foresight or even interest in investing only or mainly in high grade keys, let alone sleepers, and when it came to GA books, many books were even harder to find than they are now.

 

Unless one had a lot of time, patience and money, most of your GA collection was going to be closer to G/VG than NM, and unless one had an extremely critical eye, and the ability to stubbornly pass on nice books that fell a little short, much of the "high grade" Silver Age they purchased would be in 7.0-8.5 by today's standards.

 

And not everything old was that great an investment. I remember buying EC sci-fi books in mid-grade in the early 70s for around $20-$30 a piece. If I still had them, I'd be lucky if they'd kept up with inflation. Around the same time I bought a small stack of early 1950s Batmans, also in mid-grade, for 70¢ each.

 

Still, for decades now, sticking with the major keys in as nice a shape as you can find and afford has been a pretty smart strategy.

[JasonNewcomb]

This is why I still buy cheap and buy only comic books I really want to read and look at and have in my collection. I don't buy for resale or speculation. I buy for fun, I grade for fun, I read for fun. If the values increase well then, awesome! If not, well then, awesome!

[ComicConnoisseur]

Basically it comes down to four series that everyone wants first

Batman,Superman,Spider-man and X-men, the rest are all supporting characters of these four, take away those four series and comicbooks don`t seem as hot as investments.

We should be thankful that those four series have kept interest alive all these years.Don`t get me wrong, there are other great series but these are the four that either bring people back to the hobby or bring new colectors in .Imagine if these four series ever became unpopular?

[VintageComics]

Basically it comes down to four series that everyone wants first

Batman,Superman,Spider-man and X-men, the rest are all supporting characters of these four, take away those four series and comicbooks don`t seem as hot as investments.

We should be thankful that those four series have kept interest alive all these years.Don`t get me wrong, there are other great series but these are the four that either bring people back to the hobby or bring new colectors in .Imagine if these four series ever became unpopular?

 

I think there have been plenty of terrific non X-men/Spider-man/Superman/Batman comics that have kept readers glued to comics.

 

Your view is like mine...it's hero-centric...but there are tons of non superhero readers that spend lots of money on books.

 

(thumbs u

[comicalgems]

Sure, just about any Hulk for $700 sounds good now, and that's only around $1500 in today's money according to the inflation calculators (seems low), but Hulk #1 was only about a 20 year old book at the time, now it's closer to 50, and a decade earlier would only have run about $50.

 

Any "NM" copy at the time would likely have been today's 8.0 at best. Even so, a great investment, but it didn't seem like a bargain basement price at the time.

 

I would expect HG Gold and Silver keys to keep going up over the next ten years, but I would be amazed to see the quantum jumps in value we've seen in the last decade or two.

Agreed,I think the main reason is all of the major heroes have had thier big movie moments, Spidey got three, X-men got 3,HULK two and Batman had the king movie, the cats out of bag with these characters now, somewhere there are characters that haven`t taken off right now with mainstream and those characters will be the big picks ten years from now, if I told you in 2003 that Walking Dead 1 would constantly sell at $500 everyday on Ebay, you would have laughed.

 

I just keep thinking about Tick # 1 and TMNT # 1.

[GermanFan]

I agree with you. We have to look up from our field of comic collecting: It seems like the west has reached its wealth peak quite a couple of years ago & until today we could conceal this fact with making huge depts. So a downturn reaching mostly every asset including comics seems logical from todays point of view, with a little hope b/c nobody can see in the future. Most things that make our wealth today were only fantasised in scific stories decades ago. To me its not logical that after the explosion of knowledge & inventions nothing new will come around the corner. So there is still hope...

[VintageComics]

Most things that make our wealth today were only fantasised in scific stories decades ago. To me its not logical that after the explosion of knowledge & inventions nothing new will come around the corner. So there is still hope...

 

This is an interesting thought and one I've heard of several times.

 

I heard that the US Patent Office wanted to shut down in the 1800's because it said that there was nothing new to invent?

 

Think about that for a while....

[ft88]

And restoration in many instances was not even discounted at all from guide price so there would be a high likelihood that in buying a Superman 1 you'd now have a moderate restored book. Grade inflation was rampant and paying multiples of guide was common enough even back then.

And that actually proves my point the best. Guess what, even if you had paid the unrestored asking price for that Superman 1 in 1985, submitted it to CGC today adn received a PLOD, you`d still be ahead. As far ahead as if it was unrestored? No, but still ahead.

 

I guess I'd disagree in terms of scale. A Superman 1 that was called NM or even VF was probably a Fine at best. There are only 6 issues of Superman 1 graded in VF or better and that includes restored. 3 restoreds sold on HA.com recently for $16,500, $16,500 and $23,000 in 6.0, 5.0 and 3.5 respectively. This is before the juice which is upwards of 15% but I'll ignore that.

 

So, lets say you bought a nice restored copy for $5000 in 1985 and sold it net for $20,000 today. Your rate of return would be 5.7% over 25 years. 25 years ago the Dow was at 1300, so an 8 times return vs 4 times. U.S. Bonds were paying 6-10% throughout the mid 80's which are zero risk instruments.

 

I just think its way too easy to pretend that we could have seen the future if we had been there in the past. It gives the false impression that we can see the future now, when we can't. All I'd say is that the comic market will fall at some point and hit doldrums as it has in the past as have other collectibles. When that will happen and at what level is anyones guess. Will it recover or not is also questionable.

[kimik]

Good points but 1983 was 27 years ago, when I look at comic prices from 5 to 8 years ago according to the GPA most comicbook prices have either went down or are stagnant. an ounce of gold bought 5 to 8 years ago would have been more profitable but that`s for another thread somewhere.

 

Yes, gold has definitely held up well............. (thumbs u