Post your Overstreet Surprises...

[sfilosa]

I think by now, truly 9.4 raw comics should sell for pretty much the same amount as CGC 9.4's. I've seen raw 9.4's on eBay with huge pics sell for CGC amounts.

 

 

Have to disagree!!!

 

Simply because the price spread between 9.2 and 9.4 is so big (usually for Silver-Age books at least twice as much).

 

Everyone talks about a TRUE RAW 9.4, but it isn't a CGC 9.4 until CGC SAYS SO.

 

Yes, sometimes it SEEMS that books on eBay with huge pics sell for CGC prices but;

 

1) You're assuming that you could accurately know the value of the same book CGC'd at the exact same selling time.

 

2) You also assume that the buyer believes the grade of the seller. Maybe the buyer thinks the book is really a notch higher. Maybe they are hoping the 9.4 is really a CGC 9.6.

 

3) Ignore all Comic-Keys sales as there is NO WAY to verify if ALL of them were legit. For all we know, he shilled every other auction to inflate the prices he does get on RAW books. If you see a seller consistently get above Market Value prices for his books, it's easy to assume (incorrectly) that the seller is HONEST and an ACCURATE GRADER. In Comic-Keys case we know that isn't true.

[BassGMan]

Metro and Bob Storms have tons of raw NM books on their websites.

 

[

 

Maybe so, who cares? But do they have raw NM books that they are trying to sell for at least $5,000? That is what I am talking about. Not your typical NM Silver selling for a couple hundred bucks. ----Sid

[Aman619]

my biggest OPG surprise was just how hard it will now be to use this years 9.2s as an indication of ho much prices increased. First you have to check last years 9.4, and extrapolate the 9.2 an dmake note of what thi syears 9.2 suggests a 9.4 sells for....

 

sheesh!

 

I didnt expect to have to do so much work. But maybe it will pay off since it appears many prices went way up!!

 

Aman;

 

Have you check pages 115 to 118 to see how OS does his year over year comparisons. He simply assumes that 9.2 last year was halfway between 9.0 and 9.4 last year, and then does a straight comparison to this year's 9.2 price. Maybe a bit too simplified since 9.2 should probably be closer to 9.4 than it is to 9.0, but probably still a fair and fast way of doing it

 

yeah. Its always the first page I check each year. And I noticed the calculated increases which were helpful.

But what I was getting at was a sense of what was changed across the board, from the top 100 books down to all the commons that I collect. I use a database that prices my books by grade using the spreads and the NM price to calculate from. So, I have to reset all the factors for each grade in all the major spreads! ((and there are plenty from 1:3:8 TO 1:3:30 G:F:NM) to accommodate the fact that the new 9.2 top price is only 80% of the previous top price.

 

Its just math--- but I have to wrap my head around it and come up with a far more complex solution this year than just plugging in the new G and NM prices!!!

 

Still, an interesting graph to put up for trend analysis and compare it to some of the other collectibles or investments. Maybe we should ask Gene for his professional opinion to see if it would be relevant.

 

umm, yeah. Lets ask Gene....

[fantastic_four]

Good question...maybe they think the books are undergraded? Maybe they're confident they'll be able to slab them and get the same grade?

 

If this were the case, his operation wouldn't be worthwhile. Since he takes returns, people would just return everything once they slabbed it. He had almost 200 feedback from about 1.5 years worth of selling before he changed his feedback to be private, so you've got to figure he didn't get a high percentage of restored books then. I figure people wait on average 2 to 4 years before slabbing his books, and that over half don't slab at all.

 

I don't see that you can discount his sales simply because he might be shilling, which I find to be likely. He can't be winning them all, or even a majority of them...paying the ebay final value fees wouldn't be worth it. A bunch of people are paying him multiples of guide, and I've talked to around 30 people who have bought from him. The largest multiple of guide I can remember seeing was a forum member who bought a Spidey #23 he had listed as a 9.9 that went for around $3000.

 

I've got over a dozen very specific techniques I've compiled from the many sellers I've seen who get multiples of guide. I suppose it's easy for me to think they're great since I've still never sold any comics, but I can say that I've never seen a seller try the sorts of things I would try to convince buyers to pay high prices for raw books. In an attempt to inspire thought about the topic, consider the following two questions:

 

• Why don't people want to pay the same multiples of guide for raw vintage comics that they do for slabbed vintage comics?
• How do you counter those reasons buyers won't pay multiples for raw?

Here's a partial list of people who get multiples of raw I've learned from--Marnin Rosenberg, Rob Hughes, Steve Borock (pre-CGC), Chuck Rozanski, Fishler/Zurzolo, Harley Yee, Ted VanLiew, Danny Dupcak, Mark Schreuder, Jeff Williams, Bob Storms, and Ed Jaster. Mike, you're an excellent grader, but think about this--what percentage of your potential bidders realize that fact?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

About six months after I started on eBay, and after I received some glowing feedback, I started getting 2-4 times Guide for high grade late Silver Marvels too. Of course, this was before CGC, and I'm pretty sure that even with my glowing feedback of today and large scans, I doubt I could come close to getting those same percentages.

 

Having a CGC book is pretty much the only feedback you need anymore.

[fantastic_four]

Having a CGC book is pretty much the only feedback you need anymore.

 

Well let's take Banner as an example then since he sells a lot of high grade Bronze in the $10 to $50 range that probably isn't worth slabbing, but that is desirable enough for some people to pay multiples if they truly think it's 9.6 or 9.8 material. What can he do to get multiples?

[goldust40]

Having a CGC book is pretty much the only feedback you need anymore.

 

Well let's take Banner as an example then since he sells a lot of high grade Bronze in the $10 to $50 range that probably isn't worth slabbing, but that is desirable enough for some people to pay multiples if they truly think it's 9.6 or 9.8 material. What can he do to get multiples?

 

Precise and accurate description, big, high resolution scans, and a solid reputation re grading built up over a period of time (say two years) will always (obviously) encourage over guide bidding. Although I've seen the occasional newbie seller do very well due to having everything else in place. It's all about confidence, of course.

 

Equally important would be having the right books. If Banner had an F.F. 112 in NM 9.4 or better, that book would go for multiples.

[fantastic_four]

Precise and accurate description, big, high resolution scans, and a solid reputation re grading built up over a period of time (say two years) will always (obviously) encourage over guide bidding. Although I've seen the occasional newbie seller do very well due to having everything else in place. It's all about confidence, of course.

 

Exactly. People want great books, yet the vast majority of the great books are being sold by people who don't know how to convince other people how great they are! I can't help but believe that the people who think the CGC market is totally separate from the raw one are amongst the vast majority of people who don't know how to sell well. That's a somewhat arrogant--and possibly naive--statement from someone who doesn't sell comics, but when I see the handful of sellers I mentioned in the previous post get multiples whereas the vast majority of sellers don't, I can't help but believe it.

 

Does that mean I'd sell uncommon or extremely popular Gold/Silver/Bronze books worth more than $200 raw? No, I'd definitely slab them, but there are still lots of books out there not quite worth slabbing that call for accurate grading. People are willing to pay multiples of guide for quality books, and they always have been...there just aren't many people out there who can effectively convince buyers that they're grading a book with objective accuracy. This is one of my many motivations for being a student of accurate grading and restoration detection--it seems to be such an uncommon trait in sellers that I thought it was worthwhile to pursue.

[ultimatevenom]

Sorry to go OT but can someone tell me the prices in the guide for Cerebus 1, i won't have mine until at least 11th May.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Sorry to go OT but can someone tell me the prices in the guide for Cerebus 1, i won't have mine until at least 11th May.

 

248 VF 374 VF/NM 500 NM-

[sfilosa]

Just got my guide today, so I'm still reviewing the prices, but:

 

It seems that many Silver-Age books stayed the same in 6.0 and 8.0, or even decreased slightly.

 

Example:

 

ASM #14 in 8.0 was $1,360 last year and this year is $1,320, a $40 decrease.

 

It seems that in general, the prices on the 9.0-9.2 are much more accurate then in previous years, but once again, I really believe that the prices much accurately reflect CGC copies, not RAW copies.

 

Regardless of what anyone says, CGC'd copies should sell for a premium above raw copies. Regardless of how tight a dealers grading is, having three unbasised people review a book (ala CGC), will reduce the chance of errors (i.e. disregarding a defect), compared to one person.

[lou_fine]

Just got my guide today, so I'm still reviewing the prices, but:

 

It seems that many Silver-Age books stayed the same in 6.0 and 8.0, or even decreased slightly.

 

Example:

 

ASM #14 in 8.0 was $1,360 last year and this year is $1,320, a $40 decrease.

 

It seems that in general, the prices on the 9.0-9.2 are much more accurate then in previous years, but once again, I really believe that the prices much accurately reflect CGC copies, not RAW copies.

 

Nothing new here, OS has quite often kept or even dropped the prices on the mid-grade books throughout the years. This is just a reflection of the real marketplace as the real demand is for high grade books which OS have reflected through his increasing spreads which originally were set at only 1; 1.5; 2 for Good, Fine, Mint. Low grades are usually kept in demand by the readers or completists. Mid grades, on the other hand are usually the orphans since they are too expensive for the readers and at the same time, not high grade enough for the investors.

 

On the issue of raw prices, as I've stated many times before, I believe the guide has always been a blend between raw and slabbed prices. In the past, the OS guide has leaned more towards the raw side with this year's edition clearly slanted more towards the slabbed market. Just a reflection of the current market as slabbed books gain more and more prominence in the marketplace. Just takes Bob a while to acknowledge this since he always likes to play it safe and be on the conservative side.

 

Actually, low and mid grade prices are probably more representative of the raw market while high grades are probably more representative of the slabbed prices. After all, is this not what is happening in the marketplace with most collectors slabbing their high grade copies in order to maximize their money. Low and mid grades are generally not slabbed (except for GA) since they do not generate a premium over the raw books.

[BassGMan]

So... do we think that if the 9.0 and 9.2 OS prices reflect slabbed values, then will we see our raw high grades sell for higher amounts now that the guide is "reflecting" slabbed values? In other words, if an OS 9.2 is mostly referring to a slabbed book, if I sell my raw 9.2 or 9.4 will those books demand a higher price now that the guide is listing them at these higher amounts? That might sound confusing, hopefully I phrased it correctly. ----Sid

[Paul_Maul]

I would agree that the new Overstreet acknowledges slabbed prices more than in the past insofar as prices on NM- 9.2 books (which in the past, I, and many other high grade collectors, would not have considered worthy of "over guide") have been elevated. Also, not listing a price for 9.4 (ie, avoiding the issue of slabbed prices in these grades completely) is a tacit acknowledgement of the importance of slabbed prices to the pricing of these higher grades.

[Aman619]

hey Paul... let me be the first to WELCOME YOU TO THE BOARDS!!!

[sfilosa]

Yes, Welcome.

 

I finally had a good chance to review the guide.

 

While it's great that the guide is trying to have more "real world" prices on the higher graded material, there are MANY cases where GUIDE price for a 8.0 up to 9.2 are higher than most documented CGC sales. And of course this means that RAW books are now even more overvalued.

 

Perfect example:

 

X-Men #1 in 8.0 was $4,500 in last years guide, it is now $5,810.

 

I don't remember seeing any CGC sale for that price. Where did that price amount come from?

 

Another problem arises with VF+ issues. While the quick computation for a VF+ books is to add the values of VF and VF/NM and divide by two, this will now give an overvalued VF+ price. This is because, VF+ books usually sell for prices closer to VF than VF/NM. In prior guides, VF/NM was usually valued too low, so it balanced out the VF+ price.

 

Real world example:

ASM #14 in Overstreet is $1,320 in VF (8.0) and $2,310 in VF/NM (9.0). Split computation puts a VF+ (8.5) at around $1,815.

 

While the VF and VF/NM guide prices are almost exactly the same as the average prices of CGC copies, the documented sales of VF+ copies tend to average around $1,700-1,750. Therefore, guide value of $1,815 is overvalued.

 

So much for a conservative price guide.

[Aman619]

So much for a conservative price guide.

 

It will be interesting to have complaints finally that Overstreets prices are unrealistic cause they are too high for a change!! Poor poor Bob, just cant win.

[valiantman]

Here's a view of a few top books' values from the standpoint of "percentage of top guide"...

 

 

[lou_fine]

So much for a conservative price guide.

 

It will be interesting to have complaints finally that Overstreets prices are unrealistic cause they are too high for a change!! Poor poor Bob, just cant win.

 

Yeah, sounds like the complaints that poor old Bob got when he put out his original price guide back in 1970. They used to call it the Overpriced guide because they couldn't imagine anybody in their right mind who would pay $300.00 for a Mint copy of Action Comics #1.

 

I guess either Bob got it right or I must be pretty insane because I am willing to shell out $300 big ones for a Mint condition copy of Action #1 from 1938.

[valiantman]

They used to call it the Overpriced guide because they couldn't imagine anybody in their right mind who would pay $300.00 for a Mint copy of Action Comics #1.

Since there's not an Action #1 higher than 8.5 on the census...

It sounds like people were debating something that didn't happen anyway.

(Unless there are lots of "secret raw mint" copies out there...)