Reading inbetween the lines – the OS 34 Market Reports

[dam60]

One of my favorite things to do is read the market reports thoroughly when they come out! While a wealth of information, there is always something that has me aghast. Last year I discussed D’Arcy Farrell’s (Pendragon Comics) market report.

 

This year I would like to comment on Dave Sincere of Sincere Comics report. In the soft cover (and I imagine the hardcover?) This can be found on page 86.

 

“There do not seem to be any mainstream books going over the 150,000 mark, and 80% of the print runs are somewhere between 30K and 70K. This means old laws of supply and demand are starting to kick in. I expect these books from the last three years to shoot up significantly. Most of the low print runs are due to dealers not over-buying because it is too expensive to speculate on books”

 

Does anyone else catch themselves going “huh”. Let’s think about this – “old laws of supply and demand” low print run = significant price increases? I don’t understand. Let’s look at it like this, in a few easy steps:

 

Average Retailers Perspective:

1 – dealers got left holding the bag as they over ordered literally THOUSANDS of books in the new market implosion of the early 1990s.

2 – the dealers that are left don’t want to over-buy / speculate on all new books as they have very bad memories of losing thousands of dollars and being stuck with worthless books

3 – the smart dealers now order based on EXISTING customer demand, not based on FUTURE or ANTICIPATED demand

4 – the result is that the print run for many of these books are 30K to 70K. Print to order!

 

The confused logic that Dave Sincere puts forth is dangerous to the uneducated consumer. No one (relatively speaking – 30K to 70K copies is miniscule!) buys these books now. WHAT IS GOING TO CHANGE TO MAKE PEOPLE WANT THEM!!! The successful answer to that question is what will determine the future worth of these comics as collectibles.

 

It’s important to realize that scarcity is not the sole determinant of value. DEMAND is equally (more so?) important!! Here are two good examples: Platinum comics are truly scarce. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t spend any money of them unless I was GUARANTEED of a sure flip because they don’t fit my collecting interests. On the contrary – a Hulk 181 in uber HG would be fun to have. If a 9.4 didn’t clear $2500 (have no idea, don’t follow the book, making this up) I would consider buying one. Unfortunately for me, there are enough people that do want the 9.4 for $2500 that the price is stable.

 

Now let’s look at these new books in the 30K to 70K print range once more. The retailers order based off of pull copies with a slight few as a buffer for store stock. The comics that aren’t sold are basically dead weight. The fans don’t want them, the lcs doesn’t want them – perhaps the best thing to do is wholesale them out to a larger dealer or blow them out at cons. These books are NOT going to see huge jumps in price just because they are scarce. If there is a proven catalyst, i.e. a movie in the works, then my argument is null and void but for the run of the mill 30K to 70K books this isn’t going to happen.

 

My bottom line – scarcity does not equal price appreciation IN AND OF ITSELF. Don’t be fooled.

 

DAM

[dam60]

a few other things:

 

1 - did anyone else notice how many reports talk about the return of the speculator?

 

2 - how about how most books in below 9.0 in SA and BA go for a fraction of guide?

 

3 - I truly enjoyed Stephen Genter's comment on page 77: "I am not aware of amny completists in the Golden Age arena who will chase entire runs. This is a function of money and opportunity cost. Siler, Atom Age and Bronze are availabe, and the question is, do you want a run-of-the-mill Superman from 1947, or several Bronze Age keys?"

 

[Aman619]

god points. lets hope he really meant that for those books and titles that WILL attract readers/collectors going forward... based on content or the character's popularity improving....that THESE books will be scarcer to find on the open market because all 30,000 copies will be nesteled in collections and not budging since they will still be pretty cheap and not worth selling.

 

I agree with THIS scenario, but it would only affect a few books here and there... Late 90s books wont be valuable just because the print runs were low alone, as you say.

[ninanina]

Historically there have been periods where print runs have been low and the associated talk of the "demise" of the industry that goes along with it. So, the current period is no different, IMO. Recently I witnessed a local dealer buying up a bunch of "new" comics that came out in the last 3-5 years and....he very much wanted them explaining for the most part, they can't be found anywhere. What he liked about the pile was each comic was different. It was a good mix of DC and Marvel - mostly odds and ends. And, he did pay a lot more than .10 or .15 cents a copy.

 

Israel Rodriquez wrote in his report that many of the 90's collectors are entering the hobby after a 10 year hiatus. When I re-entered the back-issue market 4 years ago, there were a few runs I wanted like the current Marvel Knights Daredevil and the current JSA and JLA comics. I am certain new readers will continue re-entering the hobby and many will want to buy the comics that are being printed now as well as the ones printed over the last few years. And considering the print runs it won't be long until they become quite in demand and very collectable.

 

 

D'Arcy Farrell writes..."where the 1990's lost the youth market to Nintendo and Pokemon, the new millennia has recaptured them".... I can only suspect he has seen an increase in the new young reader.

 

I just can't see this lack of readership lasting forever and new readers as well as old readers returning to the hobby are the ones that will want the current "stuff" being printed.

[Paul_Maul]

It’s important to realize that scarcity is not the sole determinant of value. DEMAND is equally (more so?) important!!

 

My bottom line – scarcity does not equal price appreciation IN AND OF ITSELF. Don’t be fooled.

 

DAM

 

You couldn't be more right. I collect 1960's-70's gum cards (Wacky Packages in particular) as well as comics. This is a MUCH smaller hobby than comics, of course. There are some items in this hobby where literally 2 or 3 examples are known to exist, and yet these items sell for a couple hundred bucks, because at the same time there are LITERALLY maybe 5 people that want them. Lack of supply is DEFINITELY not in and of itself a guarantor of value.

[THE_BEYONDER]

It’s important to realize that scarcity is not the sole determinant of value. DEMAND is equally (more so?) important!!

 

My bottom line – scarcity does not equal price appreciation IN AND OF ITSELF. Don’t be fooled.

 

DAM

 

You couldn't be more right. I collect 1960's-70's gum cards (Wacky Packages in particular) as well as comics. This is a MUCH smaller hobby than comics, of course. There are some items in this hobby where literally 2 or 3 examples are known to exist, and yet these items sell for a couple hundred bucks, because at the same time there are LITERALLY maybe 5 people that want them. Lack of supply is DEFINITELY not in and of itself a guarantor of value.

 

Are loose Wacky Packages worth anything? If so...what stickers in particluar?

[chromium]

Good point ninanina....

 

When I started collecting ASM about 18 months ago (yes I know, I'm always late to the party)

I was surprised how some modern books were pretty hard to find at a decent price.

 

From Volume #2 issues #20 through to #30 weren't easy to track down, and the final 4-5 issues from volume #1 weren't that easy either.

Not even Mile High had them in stock....

 

I don't know if a lot of people are actively seeking out these books, but if you're building an ASM-run or collection, you will need them sooner or later.

 

Hasn't one of our UK board-members been searching for most ASM V2's between #15 and #40 for over 6 months now ?

[Paul_Maul]

Are loose Wacky Packages worth anything? If so...what stickers in particluar?

 

Basically, by comic hobby standards wacky packages are cheap.

 

There are a few 1st series short prints: Paul Maul, Mutts, Lavirus, Band-Ache --

that go for $50-$100 apiece. There are also some rare back variations which can

fetch around the same amount. Most of them are worth only around $1-$5

apiece.The only REALLY pricey items in the hobby are things like wax boxes and

original art.

 

For all the wacky pack information you could possibly want check out:

 

http://www.wackypackages.org

[justiceleaguer]

links not working.

[THE_BEYONDER]

Thanks for the info. Some day I'll dig out my childhood collection....

[Paul_Maul]

Sorry, I had typoed it, I think it should work now.

[THE_BEYONDER]

Are Mutts and Lavirus numbers 87 & 88 in the first series?

[dam60]

Good point ninanina....

 

When I started collecting ASM about 18 months ago (yes I know, I'm always late to the party)

I was surprised how some modern books were pretty hard to find at a decent price.

 

From Volume #2 issues #20 through to #30 weren't easy to track down, and the final 4-5 issues from volume #1 weren't that easy either.

Not even Mile High had them in stock....

 

I don't know if a lot of people are actively seeking out these books, but if you're building an ASM-run or collection, you will need them sooner or later.

 

Hasn't one of our UK board-members been searching for most ASM V2's between #15 and #40 for over 6 months now ?

 

Chrom - I am drawing some blanks but I would think that a book like ASM wouldn't fall into that range of the 30K to 70K. I can see a 30K to 70K book being something like a GI Joe, a Transformers, and most of the Vertigo titles (I really wish I had that list!), etc. that probably isn't going to raise new eyebrows.

 

I just wouldn't put the ASM in that same print run and hence the same category . . .

 

DAM

[Paul_Maul]

Are Mutts and Lavirus numbers 87 & 88 in the first series?

 

The original series wackys weren't numbered. The 1979 re-issues (which are

not worth much) were numbered, though I have no clue what the numbers were.

The 1st series I am talking about is blank-backed.

[sfilosa]

In general, the Market Reports, were not a "titillating" as in prior guides.

 

I'm a huge fan of CGC, so I always enjoyed Marnin Rosenberg bashing of them. Nothing like a major dealer crying "sour grapes".

 

Since I stay up to date (probably to much) on the books that I buy, the market reports don't really add anything to what I can't see for myself. Which is probably why I enjoy the one's that bash the comic market, CGC, or insane multiples, etc.. Is almost like they are saying, "hey I missed the boat and I want the boat to go back to the pier".

[justiceleaguer]

Shoot....you know how many of those i used to have. I threw them away years ago. Figured they were worthless. Oh the irony...im a comic collector.

[THE_BEYONDER]

Are Mutts and Lavirus numbers 87 & 88 in the first series?

 

The original series wackys weren't numbered. The 1979 re-issues (which are

not worth much) were numbered, though I have no clue what the numbers were.

The 1st series I am talking about is blank-backed.

 

Just looked it up on the site. Thanks again.

[chromium]

Chrom - I am drawing some blanks but I would think that a book like ASM wouldn't fall into that range of the 30K to 70K. I can see a 30K to 70K book being something like a GI Joe, a Transformers, and most of the Vertigo titles (I really wish I had that list!), etc. that probably isn't going to raise new eyebrows.

 

I just wouldn't put the ASM in that same print run and hence the same category . . .

 

DAM

 

I seem to remember reading that late 1998 through to end 2000 was the absolute low-point for ASM sales-wise.

I pulled my Standard Catalog and issues #15 through to #21 have a max Diamond preorder of 52K.....

Up to #29 the numbers drop even more, with #28 having a mere 48.500 issues preordered....

The series was in deep-deep trouble back then and not a lot of people were buying it....

[Paul_Maul]

Actually there are a couple of connections between wacky packs and comics. Norm Saunders, the late painter who did most of the wackys, painted many sci-fi comic and pulp covers in the 50's. George Evans (of EC fame) did some of the wacky pack checklist art. And Tom Sutton did the 1969 Wacky Ads series.

Other comics types who worked on 'em include Art Spiegelman.

[delekkerste]

Historically there have been periods where print runs have been low and the associated talk of the "demise" of the industry that goes along with it. So, the current period is no different, IMO. Recently I witnessed a local dealer buying up a bunch of "new" comics that came out in the last 3-5 years and....he very much wanted them explaining for the most part, they can't be found anywhere.

 

IMO, it *is* different this time. You may or may not be right about the lower print runs leading to higher prices, in time, but if that is the case, it will undoubtedly be a case of a small group of collectors going after an even smaller number of copies. Unless drastic measures (in terms of format, pricing and/or distribution) are taken (and perhaps not even then), the new issue market will, with metaphysical certainty, slowly continue its secular decline. The numbers speak for themselves.

 

The comic book industry is not cyclical in terms of bouncing from low to high to low to high again. Unfortunately, it's a case of bouncing from low to high to making a lower low to bouncing to a lower high - the *longer-term* trend in circulation of new issues is and has been clearly down. I am hopeful that the publishers can reverse the slide, but the measures they have taken to date (movie tie-ins, increased TPB distribution, "Hollywood" writers, etc.), IMO, haven't addressed the fundamental flaws of poor distribution and not nurturing the next generation of readers.

 

 

D'Arcy Farrell writes..."where the 1990's lost the youth market to Nintendo and Pokemon, the new millennia has recaptured them".... I can only suspect he has seen an increase in the new young reader.

 

Seriously, do NOT listen to that guy. Go read what he wrote in last year's Overstreet. It was so laughable that DAM60 felt compelled to re-type his comments and e-mail them to me and others. Even the uber-bullish on the Boards would have a hard time swallowing his tripe. The "new millennia" has recaptured all in terms of the youth market. This guy is totally brain-dead.