Reading inbetween the lines – the OS 34 Market Reports

[UnrulyAppendage]

One thing about Dave's report that needs to be mentioned is Dave over orders on supposedly hot properties. He will have stacks of the top sellers left after each month. I imagine he hopes back issue demands will go up as he has a healthy inventory of the top sellers.

[FFB]

I go to my LCS every Saturday in the middle of the day. I've been doing this almost every week since last August when I started playing golf near this particular LCS. In all of that time, I do not remember seeing more than one or two kids under the age of 20 in the store. One kid who came in arrived with his mom, who merely came into the store to find out if the store offered "discounts" to school district employees. (The kid didn't even really look around or ask to buy anything.)

 

Back in the 80s, when comics were still sold in supermarkets and newsstands, this would have meant less to me than it does now because my friends and I got almost all of our new issues from the supermarket in the Marvel value packs. But with the direct market comprising over 75% of the comic market, chances are that if kids aren't in the LCSs buying comics, they're not buying them at all.

 

In my opinion, the only way to bring kids back into the new comics market will be to reduce prices drastically and put the comics where the kids are (i.e., supermarket wire racks and convenience stores near jr. high schools). Come out with a special line of comics that use crappy quality paper if they have to. But get the price down to about $1 per comic and put them where the kids are. Make the stories simpler to follow. Even if the profit margin on the books drops a bit, I believe that the increase in comic-related licensed goods revenues (which has a higher margin than the comics do) will offset the lower publishing revenues.

 

Seriously, do NOT listen to that guy. Go read what he wrote in last year's Overstreet. It was so laughable that DAM60 felt compelled to re-type his comments and e-mail them to me and others. Even the uber-bullish on the Boards would have a hard time swallowing his tripe. The "new millennia" has recaptured all in terms of the youth market. This guy is totally brain-dead.

[FlyingDonut]

One of my favorite things to do is read the market reports thoroughly when they come out! While a wealth of information, there is always something that has me aghast. Last year I discussed D’Arcy Farrell’s (Pendragon Comics) market report.

 

This year I would like to comment on Dave Sincere of Sincere Comics report. In the soft cover (and I imagine the hardcover?) This can be found on page 86.

 

“There do not seem to be any mainstream books going over the 150,000 mark, and 80% of the print runs are somewhere between 30K and 70K. This means old laws of supply and demand are starting to kick in. I expect these books from the last three years to shoot up significantly. Most of the low print runs are due to dealers not over-buying because it is too expensive to speculate on books”

 

Does anyone else catch themselves going “huh”. Let’s think about this – “old laws of supply and demand” low print run = significant price increases? I don’t understand. Let’s look at it like this, in a few easy steps:

 

Average Retailers Perspective:

1 – dealers got left holding the bag as they over ordered literally THOUSANDS of books in the new market implosion of the early 1990s.

2 – the dealers that are left don’t want to over-buy / speculate on all new books as they have very bad memories of losing thousands of dollars and being stuck with worthless books

3 – the smart dealers now order based on EXISTING customer demand, not based on FUTURE or ANTICIPATED demand

4 – the result is that the print run for many of these books are 30K to 70K. Print to order!

 

The confused logic that Dave Sincere puts forth is dangerous to the uneducated consumer. No one (relatively speaking – 30K to 70K copies is miniscule!) buys these books now. WHAT IS GOING TO CHANGE TO MAKE PEOPLE WANT THEM!!! The successful answer to that question is what will determine the future worth of these comics as collectibles.

 

It’s important to realize that scarcity is not the sole determinant of value. DEMAND is equally (more so?) important!! Here are two good examples: Platinum comics are truly scarce. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t spend any money of them unless I was GUARANTEED of a sure flip because they don’t fit my collecting interests. On the contrary – a Hulk 181 in uber HG would be fun to have. If a 9.4 didn’t clear $2500 (have no idea, don’t follow the book, making this up) I would consider buying one. Unfortunately for me, there are enough people that do want the 9.4 for $2500 that the price is stable.

 

Now let’s look at these new books in the 30K to 70K print range once more. The retailers order based off of pull copies with a slight few as a buffer for store stock. The comics that aren’t sold are basically dead weight. The fans don’t want them, the lcs doesn’t want them – perhaps the best thing to do is wholesale them out to a larger dealer or blow them out at cons. These books are NOT going to see huge jumps in price just because they are scarce. If there is a proven catalyst, i.e. a movie in the works, then my argument is null and void but for the run of the mill 30K to 70K books this isn’t going to happen.

 

My bottom line – scarcity does not equal price appreciation IN AND OF ITSELF. Don’t be fooled.

 

DAM

 

Please read Dave Sincere's report again. He mentions very strong selling Looney Toones and Merrie Melodies books with Carl Barks artwork. Barks never did artwork for Looney Toones and Merrie Melodies. You can ignore the rest of his report.

[justiceleaguer]

I go to my LCS every Saturday in the middle of the day. I've been doing this almost every week since last August when I started playing golf near this particular LCS. In all of that time, I do not remember seeing more than one or two kids under the age of 20 in the store. One kid who came in arrived with his mom, who merely came into the store to find out if the store offered "discounts" to school district employees. (The kid didn't even really look around or ask to buy anything.)

 

Back in the 80s, when comics were still sold in supermarkets and newsstands, this would have meant less to me than it does now because my friends and I got almost all of our new issues from the supermarket in the Marvel value packs. But with the direct market comprising over 75% of the comic market, chances are that if kids aren't in the LCSs buying comics, they're not buying them at all.

 

In my opinion, the only way to bring kids back into the new comics market will be to reduce prices drastically and put the comics where the kids are (i.e., supermarket wire racks and convenience stores near jr. high schools). Come out with a special line of comics that use crappy quality paper if they have to. But get the price down to about $1 per comic and put them where the kids are. Make the stories simpler to follow. Even if the profit margin on the books drops a bit, I believe that the increase in comic-related licensed goods revenues (which has a higher margin than the comics do) will offset the lower publishing revenues.

 

Seriously, do NOT listen to that guy. Go read what he wrote in last year's Overstreet. It was so laughable that DAM60 felt compelled to re-type his comments and e-mail them to me and others. Even the uber-bullish on the Boards would have a hard time swallowing his tripe. The "new millennia" has recaptured all in terms of the youth market. This guy is totally brain-dead.

 

 

Thats a brilliant idea. Lets hope that comic company advertising executives have the same sensability as you do.

[joe_collector]

Seriously, do NOT listen to that guy. Go read what he wrote in last year's Overstreet. It was so laughable that DAM60 felt compelled to re-type his comments and e-mail them to me and others. Even the uber-bullish on the Boards would have a hard time swallowing his tripe. The "new millennia" has recaptured all in terms of the youth market. This guy is totally brain-dead.

 

Who is this insufficiently_thoughtful_person, and is he actively speculatiing on these "low run new issues"?

 

If not, and he doesn't have a alterior motive for lying, this statement could be used by relatives to have him declared incompetent.

[dam60]

Please read Dave Sincere's report again. He mentions very strong selling Looney Toones and Merrie Melodies books with Carl Barks artwork. Barks never did artwork for Looney Toones and Merrie Melodies. You can ignore the rest of his report.

 

Yeah, let's add that to my critique as well. Thanks FD!

[UnrulyAppendage]

I go to my LCS every Saturday in the middle of the day. I've been doing this almost every week since last August when I started playing golf near this particular LCS. In all of that time, I do not remember seeing more than one or two kids under the age of 20 in the store. One kid who came in arrived with his mom, who merely came into the store to find out if the store offered "discounts" to school district employees. (The kid didn't even really look around or ask to buy anything.)

 

Back in the 80s, when comics were still sold in supermarkets and newsstands, this would have meant less to me than it does now because my friends and I got almost all of our new issues from the supermarket in the Marvel value packs. But with the direct market comprising over 75% of the comic market, chances are that if kids aren't in the LCSs buying comics, they're not buying them at all.

 

In my opinion, the only way to bring kids back into the new comics market will be to reduce prices drastically and put the comics where the kids are (i.e., supermarket wire racks and convenience stores near jr. high schools). Come out with a special line of comics that use crappy quality paper if they have to. But get the price down to about $1 per comic and put them where the kids are. Make the stories simpler to follow. Even if the profit margin on the books drops a bit, I believe that the increase in comic-related licensed goods revenues (which has a higher margin than the comics do) will offset the lower publishing revenues.

 

Seriously, do NOT listen to that guy. Go read what he wrote in last year's Overstreet. It was so laughable that DAM60 felt compelled to re-type his comments and e-mail them to me and others. Even the uber-bullish on the Boards would have a hard time swallowing his tripe. The "new millennia" has recaptured all in terms of the youth market. This guy is totally brain-dead.

 

There is a problem with selling cheap comics and making them up with licensing. Supermarkets, drug stores, etc will not take up space for low profit products. Instead of cheap single comics, it would be better to have expensive reprints that include several issues worth into one comic. Something like reprinting the months Superman titles into one book for newsstand editions. Charge about $5. There would be a perceived value as you would have a thick comic book with several stories in it. The store can make money as the comic book company has made it's returns direct market so they can afford to give the newstand market a greater share of the profits.

[tth2]

Who is this insufficiently_thoughtful_person, and is he actively speculatiing on these "low run new issues"?

 

If not, and he doesn't have a alterior motive for lying, this statement could be used by relatives to have him declared incompetent.

 

EVERYONE who writes a market report for Overstreet has an ulterior motive and a hidden agenda. I've always read the market reports with a grain of salt THIS big (I need one of the tech talents on these boards to create an emoticon holding his hands far apart!).

[drice6900]

[tth2]

 

[valiantman]

EVERYONE who writes a market report for Overstreet has an ulterior motive and a hidden agenda.

Hidden? Not me.

[Thegoldenage]

One of my favorite things to do is read the market reports thoroughly when they come out! While a wealth of information, there is always something that has me aghast. Last year I discussed D’Arcy Farrell’s (Pendragon Comics) market report.

 

This year I would like to comment on Dave Sincere of Sincere Comics report. In the soft cover (and I imagine the hardcover?) This can be found on page 86.

 

“There do not seem to be any mainstream books going over the 150,000 mark, and 80% of the print runs are somewhere between 30K and 70K. This means old laws of supply and demand are starting to kick in. I expect these books from the last three years to shoot up significantly. Most of the low print runs are due to dealers not over-buying because it is too expensive to speculate on books”

 

Does anyone else catch themselves going “huh”. Let’s think about this – “old laws of supply and demand” low print run = significant price increases? I don’t understand. Let’s look at it like this, in a few easy steps:

 

Average Retailers Perspective:

1 – dealers got left holding the bag as they over ordered literally THOUSANDS of books in the new market implosion of the early 1990s.

2 – the dealers that are left don’t want to over-buy / speculate on all new books as they have very bad memories of losing thousands of dollars and being stuck with worthless books

3 – the smart dealers now order based on EXISTING customer demand, not based on FUTURE or ANTICIPATED demand

4 – the result is that the print run for many of these books are 30K to 70K. Print to order!

 

The confused logic that Dave Sincere puts forth is dangerous to the uneducated consumer. No one (relatively speaking – 30K to 70K copies is miniscule!) buys these books now. WHAT IS GOING TO CHANGE TO MAKE PEOPLE WANT THEM!!! The successful answer to that question is what will determine the future worth of these comics as collectibles.

 

It’s important to realize that scarcity is not the sole determinant of value. DEMAND is equally (more so?) important!! Here are two good examples: Platinum comics are truly scarce. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t spend any money of them unless I was GUARANTEED of a sure flip because they don’t fit my collecting interests. On the contrary – a Hulk 181 in uber HG would be fun to have. If a 9.4 didn’t clear $2500 (have no idea, don’t follow the book, making this up) I would consider buying one. Unfortunately for me, there are enough people that do want the 9.4 for $2500 that the price is stable.

 

Now let’s look at these new books in the 30K to 70K print range once more. The retailers order based off of pull copies with a slight few as a buffer for store stock. The comics that aren’t sold are basically dead weight. The fans don’t want them, the lcs doesn’t want them – perhaps the best thing to do is wholesale them out to a larger dealer or blow them out at cons. These books are NOT going to see huge jumps in price just because they are scarce. If there is a proven catalyst, i.e. a movie in the works, then my argument is null and void but for the run of the mill 30K to 70K books this isn’t going to happen.

 

My bottom line – scarcity does not equal price appreciation IN AND OF ITSELF. Don’t be fooled.

 

DAM

 

I think that anything in the OS, including the prices, have to be taken with a grain of salt. I read the market reports purely for their entertainment value. Usually, the BSD's write about how wonderful the market is, going up, up, up (ad nauseum), and other dealers and collectors write about how their own particular niche is doing phenomenally well. Folks like Marnin make the reports interesting, and while I don't necessarily agree with him on every point, I am glad he speaks his mind frankly and openly and is not afraid to [!@#%^&^] someone off.

 

Dave Sincere is smoking something funny when he claims that books from the past three years are starting to be in high demand. The are common in super high grade, and even more common that common 70's and 80's books.

 

And the fact that Sincere got it completely wrong on the Looney Tunes thing and no one at Gemstone caught it bolsters my long held theory that Overstreet and his crew don't bother to proof read the reports and don't bother to check the statements contained within those reports.

[FFB]

You are absolutely correct. This is why comics lost space on the newsstands in the first place. While I think that your inexpensive reprint idea is a good one (especially the idea of including all of a month's stories for a particular character in each month's reprint, or "digest" edition, which had never occurred to me before), I also think that by bringing back the "Marvel Multi-Mag" value packs and spinner racks, they could both increase the profit margins on the books and avoid the "stealing space from other magazines on the newsstand" issue.

 

One thing I especially like about the "Digest edition" idea of yours is that if it is printed in the same month when the actual individual stories come out, it might not be considered a reprint and collectors might buy it too. Perhaps just add in an extra 8-page "original" backup story so it's not a total reprint or something.

 

I go to my LCS every Saturday in the middle of the day. I've been doing this almost every week since last August when I started playing golf near this particular LCS. In all of that time, I do not remember seeing more than one or two kids under the age of 20 in the store. One kid who came in arrived with his mom, who merely came into the store to find out if the store offered "discounts" to school district employees. (The kid didn't even really look around or ask to buy anything.)

 

Back in the 80s, when comics were still sold in supermarkets and newsstands, this would have meant less to me than it does now because my friends and I got almost all of our new issues from the supermarket in the Marvel value packs. But with the direct market comprising over 75% of the comic market, chances are that if kids aren't in the LCSs buying comics, they're not buying them at all.

 

In my opinion, the only way to bring kids back into the new comics market will be to reduce prices drastically and put the comics where the kids are (i.e., supermarket wire racks and convenience stores near jr. high schools). Come out with a special line of comics that use crappy quality paper if they have to. But get the price down to about $1 per comic and put them where the kids are. Make the stories simpler to follow. Even if the profit margin on the books drops a bit, I believe that the increase in comic-related licensed goods revenues (which has a higher margin than the comics do) will offset the lower publishing revenues.

 

Seriously, do NOT listen to that guy. Go read what he wrote in last year's Overstreet. It was so laughable that DAM60 felt compelled to re-type his comments and e-mail them to me and others. Even the uber-bullish on the Boards would have a hard time swallowing his tripe. The "new millennia" has recaptured all in terms of the youth market. This guy is totally brain-dead.

 

There is a problem with selling cheap comics and making them up with licensing. Supermarkets, drug stores, etc will not take up space for low profit products. Instead of cheap single comics, it would be better to have expensive reprints that include several issues worth into one comic. Something like reprinting the months Superman titles into one book for newsstand editions. Charge about $5. There would be a perceived value as you would have a thick comic book with several stories in it. The store can make money as the comic book company has made it's returns direct market so they can afford to give the newstand market a greater share of the profits.

[UnrulyAppendage]

I would like to see reprints in comic book form. Being a DC fan, they could have themes. Superman, Batman, reprints and then have other books. For JLA, reprint the JLA issue, and then WW,GL, and Flash. JSA could have the left over titles. There could be a Batman Family title with Robin, Nightwing, Batgirl and BOP. This way, they could get into other markets, but it would still not take away from the bookstore TPB as those collect story arcs. Also, completionists could still get the titles they like.

 

I just like the thick comic books. I wish they would reprint more in the comic book format as well as TPB.

[Aman619]

I dunno guys... I think we're gonna have to just keep playing the same 32 page hand as long as we can. Theres only so many of us still interested in buying comic books every week. And our numbers will in all likelihood keep dwindling. And the only thing that will turn it around is not a format change, but a content change into more stories that are what readers care to read about.

 

To us, 32 page comics and annuals are collectible. The other formats arent comics. I dont see them being accepted (and collected) like the format we all know so well. The publishers have tried lower prices, and paperback reprints, and they just dont catch on.

[Kevin Boyd]

EVERYONE who writes a market report for Overstreet has an ulterior motive and a hidden agenda. I've always read the market reports with a grain of salt THIS big (I need one of the tech talents on these boards to create an emoticon holding his hands far apart!).

 

I take them as pretty much as they are, with interest, but I have my own perspective on things which may or may not jibe with what the writer has to say. Overall though, I've always found the market reports to be my favorite part of the OS guide and the updates.

 

I thought that the Paradise report was a very insightful analysis of the new book market (as it was last fall when the report had to be submitted) and I can tell you that the writer of that report had no ulterior motives, other than the fact it was very cool to submit a report for the OS guide and he wanted to give an accurate report of how things were selling at the time. (Well we also wanted to mention the show...

 

K

[PovertyRow]

I take them as pretty much as they are, with interest, but I have my own perspective on things which may or may not jibe with what the writer has to say.

 

Me too. I always find in interesting to read the pre-code horror is "hot" (its been "hot" for years) but with the exception of some "classic covers", I can pretty much always get pre-code horror below guide.

[Warlord]

Overall though, I've always found the market reports to be my favorite part of the OS guide and the updates.

 

No market reports in the Big Big OPG. At least they weren't in the #32... were they in BBOPG #33? Going to be in #34?

 

I'm only getting the BBOPG this year, so I may miss out on the MRs.

[Kevin Boyd]

Not sure... I hear they were omitted from the electronic version of this year's OS guide... they may leave them out of the Big one as well.

 

Kev

[dam60]

EVERYONE who writes a market report for Overstreet has an ulterior motive and a hidden agenda. I've always read the market reports with a grain of salt THIS big (I need one of the tech talents on these boards to create an emoticon holding his hands far apart!).

 

I take them as pretty much as they are, with interest, but I have my own perspective on things which may or may not jibe with what the writer has to say. Overall though, I've always found the market reports to be my favorite part of the OS guide and the updates.

 

I thought that the Paradise report was a very insightful analysis of the new book market (as it was last fall when the report had to be submitted) and I can tell you that the writer of that report had no ulterior motives, other than the fact it was very cool to submit a report for the OS guide and he wanted to give an accurate report of how things were selling at the time. (Well we also wanted to mention the show...

 

K

 

Kev - I was joking with Peter on two things:

1 - the hopes that the Azzarello / Risso run on Batman would be able to sustain the Jim Lee numbers and

2 - the fact that the hand out OCPR had the infofrom the Dave Sims 300 gig while in the OS book you guys talked about it as an upcoming event!

 

Best,

 

DAM