Phantom Lady 17

[blackterror]

First, how much is Phantom Lady 17 in all grades in guide 34? Thanks in advance...

 

Now, read slowly and ponder what I'm about to say...

 

In this years guide 9.2 is the highest grade and this is fine for pricing Silver on up, but for Atomic and Golden it's really stinks and here's why with a suggestion for improvement.

 

The thinking is that books above 9.2 are so rare that they defy being valued...or more precisely they are too volatile to value. They are "really" worth only what someone is willing to buy or sell them for. Which is true for all books, of course, but for most books we've got a pretty good idea of their fair market value, but not so with high grade golden age. Got it so far?

 

But...But...what if books don't even exist in 9.2 or if they do 9.2 is the best existing or best known. Which is the case for many golden age books. The guide and CGC label and census have not really come together on this point yet...here's an example

 

Case in point, Heritage sold two PL 17's in 8.5 last year...one being the Cage copy...both over guide 9.4 at around 8K. CGC census reveals there is one copy at 9.0, so the question is what is that worth...nobody knows...or rather it is anybody's guess. Which is to say...the 9.0 price is only an educated guess because the book is so rare...so how did Overstreet Value it? They guessed. That's right, that's all they could do...of course they never do this on silver age...because they don't have to guess. But with high grade Golden Age they have to guess all the time.

 

Overstreet realizing this guess factor or perhaps the reality of some books not being suited for annual guide pricing...wisely or at least honestly stopped pricing at 9.4 up ...because that is where volatility should and does begin for silver age up. But in the Golden Age it puts a tremendous brake on value and falsely suggests almost every rare golden age can be accurately valued up to 9.2. It establishes 9.4 as the ultimate...but this is not accurate for the Golden Age. In fact the ultimate of any comic is not CGC 10.0...but the ULTIMATE is and must be, THE BEST KNOWN, OR FINEST EXISTING. In the Golden Age the best known copy is in many cases 9.0 or in many cases 8.0 or less. Remember the PL17's selling above guide NM in 8.5...which was still very cheap by the way... so what should be done?

 

When a known price is established...work with that price by stopping the guide there accordingly as no higher graded copies are known to exist. Overstreet should have guided PL 17 up to 8.5 and then gone blank at 9.0. After all this is at present the best known copy!! And that and beyond that...it's anybody's guess. Wouldn't this be labor intensive....to some extent yes, but not really. Shoot, there's some guy on here that breaks down the whole census in his posts...but at any rate it could and should begin if not for all Golden/Atomic Age at least for the keys and some of the main runs in order to call attention to their relative rarity and value for all Golden Age way before 9.4. If this were done place a note stating that just as grades above 9.2 are very volatile for post-1960 books...all books prior to 1960 should be considered volatile above say 8.0 as demonstrated by the following books or runs in guide where more exhaustive efforts were made to accurately price the books up to there best known value and beyond that ?

 

Further before you says this is a mute point because a lot of collectors don't want golden age...there is not the demand...this is one of the reasons I used PL 17 as an example...there aren't many collectors anywhere that wouldn't be happy to own one...the demand is there and the fact that Overstreet guesses at a 9.0 price and a 9.2 is silly. Seriously, what do you think the 9.0 copy should sell for? After all your guess is as good as Overstreet's....

 

Put another way...would you sell a best known Golden Age at what guide says...because the volatility doesn't kick in until 9.4. Or would you know to treat a 9.0 Phantom Lady as though it were a 9.4 or higher book? Us all being comic nuts would of course, but the guide should help us and support reality if not define it. Rather than GUESS at it. Would you sell your PL17 for what Guide says or even close to it?...or would you treat it as though it were a 9.4 or higher Silver Age book. Of course you would...the price could be in the stratosphere. This applies to all mainline key Golden Age. Overstreet should not price above highest known...or should note...that the prices are "GUESSES"...which it does not in a broad way for the whole book...it is only a guide....but it is a poor guide when it implies 9.4 is the magic number for all comics...and this IS NOT SO FOR GOLDEN AGE....

 

I'm all for calling the publics attention to the reality that books above a certain grade are extremely valuable and volatile in price...I'm against doing this in a blanket manner for golden age along with the rest. Why? Because 8.0 is nosebleed high on a golden age book...not 9.4.....and above that grade...many books don't even exist...and if they do...you better treat it like a 9.4 silver age when it comes to pricing...although the "bible" of the industry, doesn't provide that guidance...and in so doing disrespects the entire GOLDEN AGE. Hopefully, this post is of interest to all comic nuts and not just the golden agers.

 

If you don't like PL17 just plug in some other book from the golden age and the same discussion still holds true. It is just a good example as an ICON book known by every collector that sells for a lot less than some of the High Grade Silver...which is nuts...in part because the last sold copy was "ONLY" 8.5...do you get my point...Overstreet should guide people with great dilligence to know that there is nothing "ONLY" about an 8.5 Golden Age...that is as mind blowing as a 9.4 Silver AGE. The hobby will learn this eventually, the census will bear it out...and the GUIDE should lead the way to this realization....

 

I think this will do for my first big foray onto the boards...and look forward to any discussion.

[sterlingcomics]

WELCOME TO THE BOARDS

Wow, your post is about the length of the -script of USM #1-40 combined...reading it now

 

Prices of books do fluctuate--the combination of supply and demand ultimately shape how much a book goes for. Quite simply, assuming demand is there, the weaker the supply, the bigger the price. Some books simply go for less because the potential buyers are not in the market.

 

Overstreet was never to be a true measure of how much a book should be bought/sold--merely a relative indicator (and there's plenty of mistakes in there that don't reflect current demand). I personally find GPAnalysis a much better tool for (CGC books of course) in this regard.

 

Excellent first post, btw. Glad to have you on board. So, tell the gang your collecting interests and genre...we're listening (as Dr. Frasier Crane would say).

[BEAUMONTS]

g 538

vg 1076

fn 1614

vf 3766

vf/nm 5783

nm- 7800

[Timely]

Nice post, but you have to remember the key word in the next phrase...

 

overstreet price GUIDE.

 

It's a guide, a way of determining approximate value, it is not an absolute.

 

l see and understand your theory but it is critically flawed. Some GA books NEVER exchange hands, and when they do who's to say Overstreet will know about the sale. Many high end sales are private.

 

The last true NM or better Marvel Comics #1 sold for $82,000 twenty years ago. Since no other true NM copy has sold since then should Marvel #1 in 9.2 guide for less than 82k now? It just does not work. Upward momentum is what fuels any collectible, even if an actual sale has not occured in 20 years.

 

Timely

[supapimp]

1984 was the last time a TRUE NM Marvel #1 copy sold for? has it been submitted yet and if so what did it grade out?

 

thanks in advance,

 

pimpy

[Timely]

That copy has not been graded yet.

[mrwoogieman]

YOU'RE GREEEEEEN DUDE!!

[sterlingcomics]

YOU'RE GREEEEEEN DUDE!!

 

I'm green with envy!

[blackterror]

you just read my post...you may be misgrading a lot of books javascript:void(0)...What do you mean I should remember it is only a guide...did you not read what I wrote. Or were you just repeating me to emphasize my point...because it sounds like your trying to point the obvious out to me? I don't mean to be rude, but I generally try to say what I mean and mean what I say and don't be mean.

 

Here is what I said, and I quote ...

 

"Overstreet ... prices are "GUESSES"..... it is only a guide....but it is a poor guide when it implies 9.4 is the magic number for all comics...and this IS NOT SO FOR GOLDEN AGE...."

 

Timely, I often enjoy your posts, but your reply this time was a cop out. The point stands...as I'm not being hypothetical...somebody posted the prices of the PL 17 in 8.5 was 3k and 5k in 9.0 in this years guide.

 

Of course you suggested antoher book. A high grade sale on what the Marvel Mystery twenty years ago. You know what this tells me? Overstreet should stop guessing prices on that book at maybe 7.5 or 8.0, but no...they guessed away on a book that hasn't changed hands in 20 years all the way up to 9.2 they guessed a price...why stop there why not keep guessing? Or better yet stop guessing as the price gets fuzzier to predict.

 

Overstreet would be much better to guess only to a point and beyond that stop. This is exactly what they do now for 9.4 and up...because it is the best guidance possible for 1960 and later...guide. I think Overstreet should stop guessing by at the most 9.0 on Golden Age...get my point...whether you agree or not...or do you want them to guess it all the way up to 10.0?

 

Now back to the Phantom Lady 17. Two copies of this This Golden/Atomic key changed hands twice last year and Overstreet has it priced at 50% off last years retail...in this year's guide. And it prices the best known CGC copy at 9.0 below the 8.5 sales last year...blah blah...this isn't isolated to this book...and my point stands. I think the GUIDE would be wise to sensitize the market to the rarity/value of 8.0 up Golden Age... The moment the guide deviated from the 9.4 pricing formula...a bold and good move...imho...they should have done the same for golden age, but at a lower grade...got it. This was the very least that should have been done. Make the Golden Age cut off at 9.0...why because of the very thing you said...so few copies, so few sales...the higher the grade the bigger the guess and the more likely to MISGUIDE!!! from the third paragraph from the end and I quote that the prices are "GUESSES"...which it does not in a broad way for the whole book...it is only a guide....but it is a poor guide when

[Timely]

YOU'RE GREEEEEEN DUDE!!

[BEAUMONTS]

.

I don't mean to be rude, but I generally try to say what I mean and mean what I say and don't be mean.

I understand what your saying but ultimately the overstreet is just a "guide", and I think that most people realize that most Golden age comics are rare in 8.0 or higher. If you look in the Platinum section of the OverStreet the highest grade listed is Fine. What would the price be on a issue if you found a VF?

[lou_fine]

Welcome to the Boards;

 

From my point of view, OS and his gang put a lot more work into this edition of the guide as compared to the past. This has resulted in some positive changes including the dropping of the top grade from a 9.4 down to a 9.2 level. For COLLECTIBLE books, I believe this is a truer reflection of what is currently happening in the real marketplace as 9.4 and up books are just too volatile to even attempt to derive a standard price.

 

Overall, a good step in the right direction. A better and more perfect step would have been setting top guide at 9.0 for GA, 9.2 for SA, 9.4 for BA, and 9.6 for Modern Age. I guess we can't ask for everyting in one year as Bob likes to take the slow and conservative approach to everything.

[PovertyRow]

Well, blackterror, I got Black Terror #20 as my representative copy of Black terror in my GA Type collection. AND, you chose to mention Atom AGe, which is nice to see!

 

So anyway, welcome and you got to visit the Golden Age area!

 

Anyway - you said something intriquing: "in the Golden Age it puts a tremendous brake on value and falsely suggests almost every rare golden age can be accurately valued up to 9.2. It establishes 9.4 as the ultimate...but this is not accurate for the Golden Age. In fact the ultimate of any comic is not CGC 10.0...but the ULTIMATE is and must be, THE BEST KNOWN, OR FINEST EXISTING. In the Golden Age the best known copy is in many cases 9.0 or in many cases 8.0 or less. Remember the PL17's selling above guide NM in 8.5...which was still very cheap by the way... so what should be done?

"

Now one point I would clarify on with GA vs SA: sometimes the Best Known (Finest Existing) in GA is gonna be a single copy - and in SA it may well be several copies. So indeed, what should be done?

 

I guess the real answer is to "use your smarts". Appreciate the OS Guide as a guide up to the grade you feel comfortable. Acknowledge that many prices in the guide are over and under current prices. (Here, "prices" meaning what you ultimately can negotiate with a dealer).

 

You said, and in theory correct, "When a known price is established...work with that price by stopping the guide there accordingly as no higher graded copies are known to exist." But I have to wonder how many of the uber-rare pricces began 34 years ago with the first Overstreet and just either lay there untouched or was subject to an overall % increase as the years passed with no further input from dealers as to how much they sold COMIC X for.

 

I wrote a long letter to Gary Carter in the late 80's or early 90's - whenever it was when the effluence hit the fan and we saw this decrease across the boards for SA books in the lesser grades, as OS atempted to correct their prices as more and more dealers were reporting that SA sold well at X% below guide.

 

What I wrote Gary was the, to my mind, bizarre inclusion of the Atom Age, pre-code horror books from Journey Into Mystery and Strange Tales that were all subject to a seemingly overall percentage decrease. Carter, as I recall, acknowledged the point BUT - in the next year's guide, prices had been adjusted so the Atom Age pre-code horror pre-hero Marvel books did not refelct the decrease.

 

ANYWAY - with this in mind, the Overstreet "prices" have always been somewhat suspect to me as far as how the prices are either gathered or reported.

 

So basically, I don;t expect any guide nowadays to be accurtae. And as far as the upper grades of GA books? Those prices are so volatile and dependant on individual deals, that any attempt at reporting them has to be taken with a TON of salt!

 

And yeah - let's see some GA Thread Presence!

[Timely]

Welcome to the Boards;

 

From my point of view, OS and his gang put a lot more work into this edition of the guide as compared to the past. This has resulted in some positive changes including the dropping of the top grade from a 9.4 down to a 9.2 level. For COLLECTIBLE books, I believe this is a truer reflection of what is currently happening in the real marketplace as 9.4 and up books are just too volatile to even attempt to derive a standard price.

 

Overall, a good step in the right direction. A better and more perfect step would have been setting top guide at 9.0 for GA, 9.2 for SA, 9.4 for BA, and 9.6 for Modern Age. I guess we can't ask for everyting in one year as Bob likes to take the slow and conservative approach to everything.

 

That is a fine idea. The only problem is establishing those parameters. For a title like Detective Comics that spans all those periods how could you (Overstreet) decide what issues those cut-offs would be? And what about other titles such as Adv. of Bob Hope or Four Color? Many comic historians cannot even agree what year or even what decade most of the ages began or ended.

 

Timely

[PovertyRow]

For a title like Detective Comics that spans all those periods how could you (Overstreet) decide what issues those cut-offs would be?

 

Well, in the older days, OS was supposed to be reporting prices (or is it sales - BIG diff - think it is sales?) from dealers. So one could say the cutoff point would be when no prices (or sales) are forthcoming from reporting dealers.

 

Now THAT would be interetsing. A guide that stops at a FINE because nothing further has been reported for that year. I tell you *I* would respect such a guide.

[Bronty]

I'm all for your idea.

[fantastic_four]

That is a fine idea. The only problem is establishing those parameters. For a title like Detective Comics that spans all those periods how could you (Overstreet) decide what issues those cut-offs would be?

 

You do what Overstreet has always done--make the dividing lines up in a way that makes some sense and hope there are less egocentric, argumentative SOBs in the hobby than there are people who prefer to accept the idea of standardized metrics so we can all proceed on to the next stage in the continuous refinement of the body of comics collecting knowledge. That's all any innovator in ANY area of human knowledge can do.

[fantastic_four]

I'm all for your idea.

 

Me 3!

[deathlok]

Although I don't think I own any GA books, so take this as you will. What difference does it make if OS places a value to 9.2 for a GA book in which there are no known copies in that grade? If there are no known copies then it's not an issue. If a copy does appear in that grade, the guide is fairly worthless, as the scarcity of the grade may well determine the value.

 

I'm sure Os has some sort of template to determine the estimated value of HG books when there is no realized sales data to draw from. I would hope it would be more logical than plucking a random value.

[blackterror]

Now let's stay on topic. Two known sales of a key book last year in VF+ by Heritage last year. Average price around or over 8k. Guide 34 says price should be around $4700 as the average of VF at $3766 and VF/NM at $5783.

 

We can site many differences between guide and reality. We know that...we all know that. That is not my point, but it's good to see a real example.

 

Now this same guide says the best known...and or existing copy in 9.0 is worth $5783 or a couple of grand less than the known sales.

 

Again this a big, known, icon book. Not a passing thought kind of book by any means.

 

The last poster said, well OS probably has some kind of formula or whatever...I wonder does anybody even remotely agree with OS....and if you don't on this Golden Age Book I can assure you the same holds true on thousands of other books.

 

Now here is my price thoughts...if the 8.5's are solid at 8K...the 9.0 should be double that or 16K and because it is the finest known add a % premium of say 4k...so whoever has the PL 17 should not sell for less than 20k.

 

It is an irreplaceable book and before anybody says poppycock...let me say...I'd love this book. Wouldn't you? We are not talking about some obscure comic that should be valuable just because it is old. There is real and constant demand for this book. Would the finest known copy of the King...make that Queen of it's genre...be a bad buy? At 20k....of course not that's why 2 different buyers bought 2 different copies last year for around 8k and they were not the finest known and they were "ONLY" 8.5's.

 

Any way... I'm asking if the best known PL17 were yours in 9.0...What is your FMV price guess price on the book? Mine would be 20k. More simply, I wouldn't think the seller was trying to rape me asking 20k. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if such a book sold anywhere from say 15 to 50 k. But what do you say? Overstreet says around 6k. Perhaps you think even less? I'm curious if this were your book, what would you want to sell it for and at what price would you think the price was becoming a rape. To be clear, of my opinion of how far off OS is on PL 17...and many other golden/atomic books, below 15k would be a STEAL, 20k would be a good solid sale and my guide price cut off on this book at 9.0...

 

Beyond 50 k would be a rape this year, but maybe not next.

 

One more thing to consider what would a book like this sell for on a site like PGCMINT (not a plug)...could you get the book for say, 6k? Ha, and when the guide is this far off and your golden age collector you feel like your getting raped on every sale, because what you pay and what the guide says often have NO connection.

 

 

Few loose thoughts...

 

I really appreciate the poster who stated *he* for one could respect a guide that did not price the clearly unknown. or something along that lines...your post was SOLID. And clearly I've established Overstreet Price Guide is not in touch with reality on PL17...and many many other golden age books.

 

I can appreciate this may be OS's first conservative move to address high grade books...as poster suggested...90 for gold/atomic...92 for silver....94 for bronze...96 for modern, but until then not only is gold punished in the guide economically, bronze and modern are unjustly rewarded...and this forum at least calls attention to the fact and supersedes the guide as you of course always buy what you like...and pay what you think you should...hang the guide...

 

By the way many posters are always touting GPA analysis...but nobody ever mentions NOSTOMANIA site... that is www.nostomania.com... IT's FREE .... it's based on real data...it does about the same job. And when it guesses grades on high grade material it does a far better job than Overstreet. Why no word for NOSTO? It is a great, did i say, FREE, site.

 

blackterror