• When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Are we in a 'speculative' market?

Started by mintcollector,

126 posts in this topic

mintcollector

mintcollector

Posted
Posted

Hello all,

 

I finally took the 'plunge' and signed up for GP Analysis. This is a great 'tool' and one that no serious CGC comic buyer should be without (in my opinion). That being said, I finally found the time to 'play around' with this valuable resource and I noticed a lot of 'trends' developing. Now I have even read that there is a comic book based reality television show coming out set in a comic book store in New Jersey; I believe. This makes me wonder if we are in a 'speculative market.' Normally, due to my involvement in both the antiques and collectibles trade; I am very 'intuned' to what happens in various collectible markets. That being said, I must realize that many other collectors on these boards have been involved in this hobby for many more years than I have. This is why I am asking the question. I do apologize if this question has been asked differently or directly; but a recent search of the forums indicated nothing too recent. The Overstreet Guide has been useful; but it appears even dealers and Overstreet advisors are split on this issue.I thank you all for your responses in advance.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TupennyConan

TupennyConan

Posted
Posted

There is a good chance that we are in a speculative market as evidenced by GP Analysis, the comic book based reality television show coming out set in a comic book store in New Jersey (I believe), & the speculative nature of your post. That being said, there is a good chance that we aren't in a speculative market due to the split on the issue among dealers & Overstreet advisers. That being said, it could be that the market is speculating on the speculative nature of the market; but that is pure conjecture on my part, a longtime speculator. That's my opinion of course, that being said.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
lizards2

lizards2

Posted
Posted
There is a good chance that we are in a speculative market as evidenced by GP Analysis, the comic book based reality television show coming out set in a comic book store in New Jersey (I believe), & the speculative nature of your post. That being said, there is a good chance that we aren't in a speculative market due to the split on the issue among dealers & Overstreet advisers. That being said, it could be that the market is speculating on the speculative nature of the market; but that is pure conjecture on my part, a longtime speculator. That's my opinion of course, that being said.

 

:applause: Bravo!!!! - excellent analysis!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TupennyConan

TupennyConan

Posted
Posted
There is a good chance that we are in a speculative market as evidenced by GP Analysis, the comic book based reality television show coming out set in a comic book store in New Jersey (I believe), & the speculative nature of your post. That being said, there is a good chance that we aren't in a speculative market due to the split on the issue among dealers & Overstreet advisers. That being said, it could be that the market is speculating on the speculative nature of the market; but that is pure conjecture on my part, a longtime speculator. That's my opinion of course, that being said.

 

:applause: Bravo!!!! - excellent analysis!

 

No charge for that excellence either. I offered it free to the internet. Let the speculating begin!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mintcollector

mintcollector

Posted
  • Author
Posted
There is a good chance that we are in a speculative market as evidenced by GP Analysis, the comic book based reality television show coming out set in a comic book store in New Jersey (I believe), & the speculative nature of your post. That being said, there is a good chance that we aren't in a speculative market due to the split on the issue among dealers & Overstreet advisers. That being said, it could be that the market is speculating on the speculative nature of the market; but that is pure conjecture on my part, a longtime speculator. That's my opinion of course, that being said.

 

:applause: Bravo!!!! - excellent analysis!

 

No charge for that excellence either. I offered it free to the internet. Let the speculating begin!

 

I honestly have no idea how to respond. For what it is worth, I was asking a serious question in a nonegocentric tone; hoping to gain useful insight from the members of this forum. I get emails and PM's from other cross collectors asking me my opinions on various other collectible markets (that I know well). If I did something wrong in asking the question; please let me know. I do not wish to offend anyone asking these kinds of questions, but at the same time I believe this is a central part of the collecting hobby.

I am in process of writing abook about various antique and collectible markets. It is a side project I am working on and it hard to find time to do it. I just thought this would be a good discussion to have, but maybe I am wrong?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Flaming_Telepath

Flaming_Telepath

Posted
Posted

For at least the last 20 years, the market has been based on speculation.

 

Judging by the activities here...the crack, press & resub, the buy-and-flip, the manipulate-and-then-call-it-something-else...I would suggest there's about 20,000 wannabe 'dealers' and around 300 actual collectors currently active. :/

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jkrk

jkrk

Posted
Posted
There is a good chance that we are in a speculative market as evidenced by GP Analysis, the comic book based reality television show coming out set in a comic book store in New Jersey (I believe), & the speculative nature of your post. That being said, there is a good chance that we aren't in a speculative market due to the split on the issue among dealers & Overstreet advisers. That being said, it could be that the market is speculating on the speculative nature of the market; but that is pure conjecture on my part, a longtime speculator. That's my opinion of course, that being said.

 

:applause: Bravo!!!! - excellent analysis!

 

No charge for that excellence either. I offered it free to the internet. Let the speculating begin!

 

I honestly have no idea how to respond. For what it is worth, I was asking a serious question in a nonegocentric tone; hoping to gain useful insight from the members of this forum. I get emails and PM's from other cross collectors asking me my opinions on various other collectible markets (that I know well). If I did something wrong in asking the question; please let me know. I do not wish to offend anyone asking these kinds of questions, but at the same time I believe this is a central part of the collecting hobby.

I am in process of writing abook about various antique and collectible markets. It is a side project I am working on and it hard to find time to do it. I just thought this would be a good discussion to have, but maybe I am wrong?

 

 

Did you do something wrong in asking the question? Not really. However, aren't you really asking if those of us who have been spending modest to serious sums of money on comics are about to see the values of our collections fall precipitiously? If a speculative bubble exists aren't buyers paying foolish money for books that should sell for a fraction of the current price?

 

People never see bubbles until it's over. There are always rationalizations why the trend will continue. Is the hobby currently in a bubble? Eventually yes. Maybe now? Maybe not? How many of us would spend hard earned money if we truly believed prices were about to fall sharply?

 

Going into someone's house asking a question (even a thoughtful question) which is generally disturbing for the hobby will evoke very cynical comments.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mintcollector

mintcollector

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Since two people have alerted attention to the obvious, by asking 'aren't all markets speculative?' The answer (as you already know); is yes. That being said, maybe I am asking the wrong question. While all markets go through various cycles; some are more 'stable' than others. Would you consider the comic market 'stable' over the long term? By long term I mean decades.

 

Perhaps this is the question I should be asking for a better analysis.I do thank you for pointing this out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mintcollector

mintcollector

Posted
  • Author
Posted

There is a good chance that we are in a speculative market as evidenced by GP Analysis, the comic book based reality television show coming out set in a comic book store in New Jersey (I believe), & the speculative nature of your post. That being said, there is a good chance that we aren't in a speculative market due to the split on the issue among dealers & Overstreet advisers. That being said, it could be that the market is speculating on the speculative nature of the market; but that is pure conjecture on my part, a longtime speculator. That's my opinion of course, that being said.

 

:applause: Bravo!!!! - excellent analysis!

 

No charge for that excellence either. I offered it free to the internet. Let the speculating begin!

 

I honestly have no idea how to respond. For what it is worth, I was asking a serious question in a nonegocentric tone; hoping to gain useful insight from the members of this forum. I get emails and PM's from other cross collectors asking me my opinions on various other collectible markets (that I know well). If I did something wrong in asking the question; please let me know. I do not wish to offend anyone asking these kinds of questions, but at the same time I believe this is a central part of the collecting hobby.

I am in process of writing abook about various antique and collectible markets. It is a side project I am working on and it hard to find time to do it. I just thought this would be a good discussion to have, but maybe I am wrong?

 

 

Did you do something wrong in asking the question? Not really. However, aren't you really asking if those of us who have been spending modest to serious sums of money on comics are about to see the values of our collections fall precipitiously? If a speculative bubble exists aren't buyers paying foolish money for books that should sell for a fraction of the current price?

 

People never see bubbles until it's over. There are always rationalizations why the trend will continue. Is the hobby currently in a bubble? Eventually yes. Maybe now? Maybe not? How many of us would spend hard earned money if we truly believed prices were about to fall sharply?

 

Going into someone's house asking a question (even a thoughtful question) which is generally disturbing for the hobby will evoke very cynical comments.

 

 

I apologize for the double post; and I agree with most of what you said. I also appreciate the fact that you did not use sarcasm to attempt to get your point across. That being said, the part I want to respond to is this:

 

"Going into someone's house asking a question (even a thoughtful question) which is generally disturbing for the hobby will evoke very cynical comments."

 

My answer would be; would it, or would it result in serious analysis of the question at hand. I do see where you are coming from. No one wants to address this question in regards to a hobby they have a 'vested' interest in (even myself). That being said, I still believe this question deserves a valid response. Otherwise I would not have asked the question.

 

You are welcome to disagree and I would not argue your point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TupennyConan

TupennyConan

Posted
Posted
There is a good chance that we are in a speculative market as evidenced by GP Analysis, the comic book based reality television show coming out set in a comic book store in New Jersey (I believe), & the speculative nature of your post. That being said, there is a good chance that we aren't in a speculative market due to the split on the issue among dealers & Overstreet advisers. That being said, it could be that the market is speculating on the speculative nature of the market; but that is pure conjecture on my part, a longtime speculator. That's my opinion of course, that being said.

 

:applause: Bravo!!!! - excellent analysis!

 

No charge for that excellence either. I offered it free to the internet. Let the speculating begin!

 

I honestly have no idea how to respond. For what it is worth, I was asking a serious question in a nonegocentric tone; hoping to gain useful insight from the members of this forum. I get emails and PM's from other cross collectors asking me my opinions on various other collectible markets (that I know well). If I did something wrong in asking the question; please let me know. I do not wish to offend anyone asking these kinds of questions, but at the same time I believe this is a central part of the collecting hobby.

I am in process of writing abook about various antique and collectible markets. It is a side project I am working on and it hard to find time to do it. I just thought this would be a good discussion to have, but maybe I am wrong?

 

I've been active in buying comics for most of my 41 yr long life. I spend a lot of my free time thinking about FMV. I don't know how to answer your question beyond recommending that you do what I have done. After you've done what I have done, your answer may be just like mine -- one of pure speculation about the speculative nature of this market; which, like all markets, is speculative in nature & by nature. Of course, that's all studied conjecture.

 

Also, I'm insane. One indication of my insanity is my willingness to pay thousands of dollars for an antique children's magazine that I will store away in a box without ever reading or looking at for more than 5-10 minutes a decade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mintcollector

mintcollector

Posted
  • Author
Posted

TupennyConan,

 

You are NOT insane. If that was the definition of insanity I think a lot of people (including myself) would be considered insane.

 

Actually, your responses tell me a lot about your analysis of the question at hand. I do appreciate your input; I was just trying to understand where you were coming from.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ditch Fahrenheit

Ditch Fahrenheit

Posted
Posted

Also, I'm insane. One indication of my insanity is my willingness to pay thousands of dollars for an antique children's magazine that I will store away in a box without ever reading or looking at for more than 5-10 minutes a decade.

 

Well put.

 

I share your insanity.

 

Maybe it's a contagious disease that can be spread to pandemic proportions for "speculative" purposes?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TupennyConan

TupennyConan

Posted
Posted
TupennyConan,

 

You are NOT insane. If that was the definition of insanity I think a lot of people (including myself) would be considered insane.

 

Actually, your responses tell me a lot about your analysis of the question at hand. I do appreciate your input; I was just trying to understand where you were coming from.

 

I'm insane.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Davenport

Davenport

Posted
Posted
Since two people have alerted attention to the obvious, by asking 'aren't all markets speculative?' The answer (as you already know); is yes. That being said, maybe I am asking the wrong question. While all markets go through various cycles; some are more 'stable' than others. Would you consider the comic market 'stable' over the long term? By long term I mean decades.

 

Perhaps this is the question I should be asking for a better analysis.I do thank you for pointing this out.

What's the strongest buy-motivator of the market? If it's resale potential, well, that answers your question. If it's nostalgia, art, story, or building private collections then it's an open question subject to further analysis.

 

I'm going to vote "no" for long term stability. Primarily based on the Generation that created comic collecting cashing out with old age. Today's tiny pro-graded niche market would have to grow considerably to absorb the future supply-side of the stability-equation.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JWKyle

JWKyle

Posted
Posted

I really like the discussion this could create. There was a thread about what is hot now will be hot 25 years from now. Well guess what comic characters are hot they are blazing hot. Superhero Squad , Avengers on Disney, Brave and the Bold, Most of the hero based movies. Look at the kids they are devouring comic characters. They are however not devouring comics. So I guess the Speculation comes from are these kids who are going to be the bread winners of the future going to dish out for that AF 15 for over a million dollars. Remember the kids love the characters but will the comics hold that spot for them. Maybe?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
thehumantorch

thehumantorch

Posted
Posted

I think the OP is asking if we are in a speculative bubble. Have prices been

driven up and are they likely to fall?

 

I'm not sure prices will plummet anytime soon but I do believe that:

 

Collectors who grew up during the SA are probably at their peak earning point

(PEP).

 

The many comic centric movies (CCM) has brought new collectors to the hobby

 

CGC has drastically changed the high end hobby bringing standardization to

grading and creating competition through the census and registry.

 

We are in a perfect storm right now but I don`t know who we will sell to 20

years from now.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jkrk

jkrk

Posted
Posted
There is a good chance that we are in a speculative market as evidenced by GP Analysis, the comic book based reality television show coming out set in a comic book store in New Jersey (I believe), & the speculative nature of your post. That being said, there is a good chance that we aren't in a speculative market due to the split on the issue among dealers & Overstreet advisers. That being said, it could be that the market is speculating on the speculative nature of the market; but that is pure conjecture on my part, a longtime speculator. That's my opinion of course, that being said.

 

:applause: Bravo!!!! - excellent analysis!

 

No charge for that excellence either. I offered it free to the internet. Let the speculating begin!

 

I honestly have no idea how to respond. For what it is worth, I was asking a serious question in a nonegocentric tone; hoping to gain useful insight from the members of this forum. I get emails and PM's from other cross collectors asking me my opinions on various other collectible markets (that I know well). If I did something wrong in asking the question; please let me know. I do not wish to offend anyone asking these kinds of questions, but at the same time I believe this is a central part of the collecting hobby.

I am in process of writing abook about various antique and collectible markets. It is a side project I am working on and it hard to find time to do it. I just thought this would be a good discussion to have, but maybe I am wrong?

 

 

Did you do something wrong in asking the question? Not really. However, aren't you really asking if those of us who have been spending modest to serious sums of money on comics are about to see the values of our collections fall precipitiously? If a speculative bubble exists aren't buyers paying foolish money for books that should sell for a fraction of the current price?

 

People never see bubbles until it's over. There are always rationalizations why the trend will continue. Is the hobby currently in a bubble? Eventually yes. Maybe now? Maybe not? How many of us would spend hard earned money if we truly believed prices were about to fall sharply?

 

Going into someone's house asking a question (even a thoughtful question) which is generally disturbing for the hobby will evoke very cynical comments.

 

 

I apologize for the double post; and I agree with most of what you said. I also appreciate the fact that you did not use sarcasm to attempt to get your point across. That being said, the part I want to respond to is this:

 

"Going into someone's house asking a question (even a thoughtful question) which is generally disturbing for the hobby will evoke very cynical comments."

 

My answer would be; would it, or would it result in serious analysis of the question at hand. I do see where you are coming from. No one wants to address this question in regards to a hobby they have a 'vested' interest in (even myself). That being said, I still believe this question deserves a valid response. Otherwise I would not have asked the question.

 

You are welcome to disagree and I would not argue your point.

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Board=15&Number=4887926&Searchpage=3&Main=226812&Words=jkrk&topic=0&Search=true#Post4887926

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Go to topic listing