Are we in a 'speculative' market?

[Jeffro.]

 

oh well, at least it got me to post something productive instead of just trolling Tupenny.

 

:think: both have their virtues....,

 

Trolling Tupenny is fun stuff, expecially when it's subtle enough that he's not sure it's trolling.

 

[Dale Roberts]

As always, the market is changing constantly. I have mentioned on here before that the market used to change every 6 months, now it changes every 6 weeks. The people that don't change with the market think it is dying. Those people who are able to adapt are somehow able to keep selling through it all.

 

This bolded part seems just as concerning as a hobby tainted with the historical reputation of manipulative practices keeping it on life support. If the average collector/dealer is having to flip purchases in a shorter amount of time because they are doing it on margins or borrowed money, the question will be how this will all shake out when rapid shifts in the lending market happen and a real credit crunch hits.

 

Actually, I rarely see this at all. Most of my customers are guys who are buying books, and stashing them away. Sure, some use credit cards, but I am pretty sure they are not flipping the books. And I could say with certainty that I took fewer credit card purchases in the past 2 years, and I am not talking about by just a few transactions. Probably 50 - 60% less credit card transaction as compared to 2008, 2009. But my sales were very close to the same.

 

I think most people are pretty adaptable. Most people can manage their money and their budgets pretty well. I have no doubts there are people out there who are spending more money than they have, but it is a small part of the market, and while it might be a fairly important part of the market right now, when those guys go away, there will be someone to take their place.

 

As far as speculation. I don't remember a time when that has not been a part of any collectible market. I know a guy who speculated on Iron Man #1 when it came out and bought 300 copies. I know a guy who bought (and still has) a case of Wolverine Limited Series #1. The same guy has (or had) about a magazine box of Fantasy Quarterly #1 (1st Elfquest). I personally have lots of stuff like New Mutants #98, Sandman #1, Amazing Spider-man #300, etc in bulk. You can't take speculation out of anything which has value, or perceived future value. Those who do it well succeed, those who buy hyped up junk, don't do so well.

 

This is helpful insight (especially, I'm sure for the OP). You've heard my take, but I'd personally be curious to hear what you attribute to the drop from 6 months to 6 weeks as far as the way market trends have been changing.

 

In terms of having to cycle inventory to accommodate this rapid change, I look at this as the equivalent of a car manufacturer having to retool every 6 months to a year. The answer in the car market lies in shifting the single-model manufacturing model to one of a multi-model manufacturing plant, which I understand has already become a reality with a manufacturing facility out in Europe that manufactures and assembles over 30 lines of cars.

 

I don't question that you have been successful, but outside of having to network with dozens of dealers with insanely deep inventories, and/or incorporating a brokering model as a method to remain responsive to rapidly changing trends, how else does a "successful" dealer keep up?

 

I think we have a slight misunderstanding. My 6 months to 6 weeks has nothing to do with turning inventory. I don't care how long it takes me to sell books. Of course, I would rather sell something quickly as opposed to keeping it a couple of years, but I try to price books at what I think they should sell for, and when it sells, it sells.

 

But the internet is the impetus for the speeding up the change in the market. The exchange of information at the speed of DSL has had marked effect on what people buy, when they buy it, etc. For example, the very day that it was announced that Thanos was going to be in the Avengers movie, I sold 2 copies of Iron Man #55. Or if a certain group of books performs particularly well in a Heritage or Comiclink auction, often I see a bump in interest in similar books.

 

I just think that the dealer who uses every bit of information at his disposal is ahead of the game, and more likely to succeed. I also think it is bad long term judgement for guys to play the short profit/buy and flip game. Sure, you can make it work and there will be some good scores. But it is like day trading or playing against the house in a casino. In the long term, you are probably not going to make it. There will always be a few guys who sneak through, but 95% are not going to make it doing it that way. And it is practically impossible unless you have exceptionally deep pockets. I know one guy who spent 16K on a Cap #1, carried it for 2 years and sold it for 16.5K. I mean, does that make any sense? I guess if you have the need to appear as BSD comic dealer that is fine, but from a business standpoint, I just don't get it.

[TupennyConan]

I know a guy who bought a $15k Cap 1 & sold it at a $5k loss.

 

[Flee-Marquette]

I know a guy who bought a $15k Cap 1 & sold it at a $5k loss.

 

Well then that means that I know a guy who knows a guy who bought a $15K Cap 1 & sold it at a $5k loss!

[TupennyConan]

I know a guy who bought a $15k Cap 1 & sold it at a $5k loss.

 

Well then that means that I know a guy who knows a guy who bought a $15K Cap 1 & sold it at a $5k loss!

 

[Mike's Rack]

One thing to remember is that while there is a "comics market", it is more helpful to look at it as a set of sub-markets e.g. High-grade, golden age, keys, moderns, underground, magazines (my favorite), TPB, Manga and many more. These sub markets are very different and respond to different criteria at different times.

 

Trends change all the time. Look at GPA and you will see uber-high grade continue to rise, however many on the the next level, 9.6 or the other second highest grades have dropped since 2008. There is a reason why we don't see many key golden age books come to market until there is a huge record breaking sale, these books are worth more to their owners than the FMV.

 

What makes the market resilient is the diversity. When one is down, another is up. The problem with the crash of the 90's (and any financial bubble) is the failure to diversify. Too many people put too much capital in one place (X-titles, modern #1's every week, poly bagged death of superman). Even then, if you had spent your comic allowance differently, you could have some valuable books right now. I remember listening to older collectors and store owners lament the price of books and the high print runs. But, they based their business model on it and when the market changed quickly, they were left holding the bag. If they had gone with their gut, they may have weathered the storm (maybe not, it was a rough time).

 

I don't buy this "kids are playing video games so comics will be worthless in the future." True, some comics will be worthless. Some will hold hold their value, and some will go up. Quality rules in collecting in any genre. Trends change but great stories and art withstand the test of time. Younger people are rediscovering golden age books, sci-fi covers and violent horror. Not long ago, it was the westerns and romance. Trends change. The dealer's art is to stay on the front of the curve and prepared for the next trend. The signs are there, it takes a good dealer to find them. Nothing is new, one key is to get the old stuff in front of new collectors. If it's packed away, the new generation may never know it existed. Pull out your Golden Age Planets, Pre-Code horror, and black and white magazines and see how people react. Ziff-Davis has some great covers.

 

I'm beginning to rant but I see that the market is still diverse and I feel optimistic. But I don't own a case of DC new 52 #1's.

[comicwiz]

I hear what you're saying, and don't entirely disagree, but with the exception of a handful of dealers with inventories in the millions of comics, you would be hard pressed to find any of the big name dealers with inventories that represent anywhere near 1% of the total number of books represented in Overstreet.

 

Take the busiest convention, and assemble the entire stock on the floor, and I would be amazed if you could bump it over 5%.

 

And that doesn't even factor in books outside of Overstreet's coverage, which would shift the decimal point percentages even further to the left.

 

The hype-cycle of this market is one where we are seeing the same books, over and over again, both as stock getting recycled from one dealer or collector to the next, sold online, and/or resold either as fresh stock or as upgrade candidates.

 

In my opinion, no matter how you slice and dice it, it is still a false representation of market and hobby diversity.

 

Barring a shake-up of the current key-driven market trend dominating all the sub-markets, I can't even really see any practical purpose for a printed guide, which in my mind is one of the barometers we must consider to be a relevant indicator of this hobby's staying power.

 

Sadly, this all translates into too top heavy a percentage of comic books being debased and forgotten, and unless the opposite can be proven and/or an equilibrium can somehow be established, I don't see how this can be good for the long-term health of the hobby.

[USArmyParatrooper]

I think what's also missing from the equasion are speculative collectors. Buyers who make purchases to keep based on perceived future value. The buy it while it's cheap mentality. I happen to be one of those people. I've read comments stating the only reason to press a comic is to flip it, and that's just not true. If you can save a bunch of money pressing an 8.5 to a 9.2, why not? What Walking Dead collector wouldn't want to go back in time and buy WD 1 right off the shelf.

 

I think in all collectible hobbies speculation play some role with most collectors, even if only a very small role.

[comicwiz]

Good point.

 

I think CGC's entrance and acceptance (as far as establishing a very notable difference between perceived values for raw and graded books) is a clear signal that the market had matured to the point where it was ready for speculators, both collectors and dealers alike.

 

A direct opposite effect can be observed in certain sub-markets of toys, where resistance to 3rd-party grading created the opposite effect. In these sub-markets, an unfriendly and unwelcome atmosphere towards new entrants with deep-pockets may have driven out speculators, and to some extent, caused values to remain flat or depressed. There are other divisive factors which are at play, like the circulation of fakes, reproductions, etc.

 

The other day, when a member posted a safe with his collectibles in it, I saw the Gretzky rookie in there, and it occurred to me at that moment that every hobby has that collectible item which just wouldn't make sense to buy without authentication. Even if you get lucky enough to catch a break with a find or discovery that costs you less than buying at full price, the authentication loop catches up with us every time because buyer confidence and spend doesn't like risk on high end items.

 

I'll resign to recognizing that when we get caught up in a situation where grading and/or authentication becomes the only sensible selling tool without leaving money on the table, we inadvertently all become speculators.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

I know a guy who bought a $15k Cap 1 & sold it at a $5k loss.

 

Well then that means that I know a guy who knows a guy who bought a $15K Cap 1 & sold it at a $5k loss!

 

Truely one of the great stories of the convention circuit, second only to Joey G's stack of Star Wars # 1 for a Hulk # 1 trade.

[thirdgreenham]

TupennyConan,

 

You are NOT insane. If that was the definition of insanity I think a lot of people (including myself) would be considered insane.

 

Actually, your responses tell me a lot about your analysis of the question at hand. I do appreciate your input; I was just trying to understand where you were coming from.

 

I disagree. I think he is insane, to a certain degree.

[ComicConnoisseur]

One thing to remember is that while there is a "comics market", it is more helpful to look at it as a set of sub-markets e.g. High-grade, golden age, keys, moderns, underground, magazines (my favorite), TPB, Manga and many more. These sub markets are very different and respond to different criteria at different times.

Good points,and you should post more often.

[Logan510]

TupennyConan,

 

You are NOT insane. If that was the definition of insanity I think a lot of people (including myself) would be considered insane.

 

Actually, your responses tell me a lot about your analysis of the question at hand. I do appreciate your input; I was just trying to understand where you were coming from.

 

I disagree. I think he is insane, to a certain degree.

 

 

I think he's nuts...but not insane.

[lizards2]

TupennyConan,

 

You are NOT insane. If that was the definition of insanity I think a lot of people (including myself) would be considered insane.

 

Actually, your responses tell me a lot about your analysis of the question at hand. I do appreciate your input; I was just trying to understand where you were coming from.

 

I disagree. I think he is insane, to a certain degree.

 

 

I think he's nuts...but not insane.

 

I think his nuts are insane

[Mike's Rack]

One thing to remember is that while there is a "comics market", it is more helpful to look at it as a set of sub-markets e.g. High-grade, golden age, keys, moderns, underground, magazines (my favorite), TPB, Manga and many more. These sub markets are very different and respond to different criteria at different times.

Good points,and you should post more often.

 

[TupennyConan]

[zosocane]

Speculative market?

 

It depends on what niche within collecting. If you say the ultra high-end "high grade" books, stuff that is 9.6 or higher, I would say yes.

 

To wit: an Avengers #1 in CGC 9.6 last month sold for $250,000. That's a quarter of a million dollars. The book is significant because (i) it is the first appearance of NOBODY and (ii) it is the first appearance of the second Silver Age Marvel superhero team (after FF).

 

 

[Dale Roberts]

#1 Sales technique

 

Dale Roberts Comics

 

Buy my comics or I'll eat your children.

 

[Chespirito]

#1 Sales technique

 

Dale Roberts Comics

 

Buy my comics or I'll eat your children

. They'd probably give you gas, the first few I had totally ruined Mike Tyson's career...

True Story

[Bunky Brian]

Speculative market?

 

It depends on what niche within collecting. If you say the ultra high-end "high grade" books, stuff that is 9.6 or higher, I would say yes.

 

To wit: an Avengers #1 in CGC 9.6 last month sold for $250,000. That's a quarter of a million dollars. The book is significant because (i) it is the first appearance of NOBODY and (ii) it is the first appearance of the second Silver Age Marvel superhero team (after FF).

 

(thumbs u