Supply of Early Silver Age

[clobberintime]

Yeah i would bet in my experience Hulk 1, ToS 39 and Journey 83 are much harder to find than Spidey or X-men 1 but not as pricey due to movie/cartoon hype of x-men and Spidey - but Hulk prices are starting to zoom. A lot of the old time collectors will pay big bucks for Journey 83-112 and Tos 39-66 in grade due to scarcity.Just look at tht Journey 89 that Parrino paid about 20x guide for 2 years ago! And Avengers 1 in grade is hard too- many more copies of Spidey and X-men 1 around than that one!

[supapimp]

nice score on the JIM 102 CGC NM-9.2 WHITE pages, i was eyeing it but didn't pull the trigger.

[clobberintime]

My run is almost complete! I have an 8.0 but all else in that area was 9.2 - all i need for 83 to 200 is a higher grade 89 and 125, 131, and a few in the 180s - it has taken a long time!

[mr_highgrade]

Congratulations counselor.

[NativeNewYorker]

James,

 

I found an old copy of Overstreet's guide (#22) that lists estimates for key Golden Age books. I could have sworn that they had estimates of Silver Age though in other issues. Does anyone have the statistics for Silver Age from the other OS guides?

 

Here are some #'s.

 

Action #1 up to 75+ total copies exist , 4 in NM/MT

Adventure #40 (Rare) up to 50 total copies exist , 3 in NM/MT

Adventure #48 up to 80 total copies exist , 5 in NM/MT

Adventure #61 up to 100+ total copies exist , 7 in NM/MT

Adventure #72 up to 100+ total copies exist , 8 in NM/MT

Adventure #73 up to 100+ total copies exist , 7 in NM/MT

All-American #16 (Rare) up to 35+ total copies exist, 3 in NM/MT

All-American #19 up to 80 total copies exist, 5 in NM/MT

All-American #25 up to 120 total copies exist, 6 in NM/MT

All-Flash #1 up to 200 total copies exist, 11 in NM/MT

All-Star #1 up to 200+ total copies exist, 6 in NM/MT

All-Star #3 up to 150+ total copies exist, 6 in NM/MT

All-Star #8 up to 150 total copies exist, 6 in NM/MT

Amazing-Man #5 (#1) (Rare) up to 60 total copies exist, 3 in NM/MT

Archie Comics #1 (Scarce) up to 50 total copies exist, 5 in NM/MT

Batman #1 up to 250+ total copies exist, 16 in NM/MT

Captain America #1 up to 180 total copies exist, 8 in NM/MT

Captain Marvel Adventures nn (#1) up to 140 total copies exist, 3 in NM/MT

Century of Comics nn up to 20 total copies exist, none in NM/MT

Daredevil Comics #1 up to 215 total copies exist, 12 in NM/MT

Daring Mystery Comics #1 up to 60 total copies exist, 5 in NM/MT

Detective #1 (Scarce) #1 up to 30 total copies exist, 1 in NM/MT

Detective #27 up to 50+ total copies exist, 3 in NM/MT

Detective #29 up to 75+ total copies exist, 6 in NM/MT

Detective #31 up to 75+ total copies exist, 6 in NM/MT

Detective #33 up to 75+ total copies exist, 7 in NM/MT

Detective #38 up to 85+ total copies exist, 9 in NM/MT

Famous Funnies Carnival of Comics up to 50 total copies exist, 2 in NM/MT

Famous Funnies Series 1 (Very Rare) up to 12 total copies exist, 1 in NM/MT

Famous Funnies #1 (Rare) up to 30 total copies exist, 2 in NM/MT

Flash Comics #1 up to 75+ total copies exist, 7 in NM/MT

Funnies On Parade nn up to 50 total copies exist, 3 in NM/MT

Green Giant #1 (Rare) up to 17 total copies exist, 3 in NM/MT

Green Lantern (series 1) #1 up to 200 total copies exist, 8 in NM/MT

Human Torch #2 (#1) up to 190 total copies exist, 10 in NM/MT

Jumbo Comics #1 (Rare) up to 45 total copies exist, 1 in NM/MT

Looney Tunes and Merrie Melodies Comics #1 up to 170 total copies exist, 8 in NM/MT

Marvel Comics #1 up to 50 total copies exist, 4 in NM/MT

Marvel Mystery Comics #2 up to 50 total copies exist, 5 in NM/MT

Marvel Mystery Comics #5 (Scarce) up to 75 total copies exist, 3 in NM/MT

Marvel Mystery Comics #9 up to 75 total copies exist, 6 in NM/MT

Mickey Mouse Book (1st-4th printings) up to 75 total copies exist, 4 in NM/MT

Mickey Mouse Magazine V1#1 up to 100 total copies exist, 3 in NM/MT

More Fun Comics #7 up to 15 total copies exist, none in NM/MT

More Fun Comics V2#1 up to 10 total copies exist, none in NM/MT

More Fun Comics #52 up to 60 total copies exist, 3 in NM/MT

More Fun Comics #53 up to 60 total copies exist, 3 in NM/MT

More Fun Comics #55 (Scarce) up to 100 total copies exist, 6 in NM/MT

More Fun Comics #67 up to 105 total copies exist, 6 in NM/MT

More Fun Comics #71 up to 90 total copies exist, 6 in NM/MT

More Fun Comics #73 up to 85 total copies exist, 5 in NM/MT

More Fun Comics #101 up to 200 total copies exist, 9 in NM/MT

Mystic Comis (series 1) #1 up to 110 total copies exist, 4 in NM/MT

New Book of Comics #1 (Rare) up to 50 total copies exist, none in NM/MT

New Comics V1#1 up to 50 total copies exist, none in NM/MT

New Fun Comics #1 up to 10 total copies exist, 1 in VF/NM

New Fun Comics #2 up to 5 total copies exist

New Fun Comics #3-6 up to 10 total copies exist

New York World's Fair #1 up to 110 total copies exist, 4 in NM/MT

Pep #1 up to 150 total copies exist, 7 in NM/MT

Pep #22 up to 150 total copies exist, 7 in NM/MT

Planet Comics #1 up to 160 total copies exist, 10 in NM/MT

Red Raven Comics #1 up to 135 total copies exist, 6 in NM/MT

Sensation Comics #1 up to 150 total copies exist, 7 in NM/MT

Silver Streak Comics #1 (Scarce) up to 100 total copies exist, 6 in NM/MT

Special Edition Comics #1 up to 150 total copies exist, 7 in NM/MT

Star Spangled Comics #7 up to 100 total copies exist, 5 in NM/MT

Sun-Mariner Comics #1 up to 190 total copies exist, 8 in NM/MT

Superboy #1 up to 275 total copies exist, 15 in NM/MT

Superman #1 up to 190 total copies exist, 3 in NM/MT

USA Comics #1 up to 145 total copies exist, 7 in NM/MT

Walt Disney Comics and Stories #1 up to 245 total copies exist, 12 in NM/MT

Whiz nn (#1) up to 100 total copies exist, 3 in NM/MT

Wonder Woman #1 up to 150 total copies exist, 8 in NM/MT

World's Best Comics #1 up to 185 total copies exist, 6 in NM/MT

Wow nn (#1) up to 100 total copies exist, 3 in NM/MT

Young Allies #1 up to 165 total copies exist, 9 in NM/MT

 

The most obvious observation is the large quantities of NM/MT books that Overstreet believes are in the marketplace. Given that this copy of the guide is 10 years old, we can arrive at 3 conclusions.

1. [*]Overstreet was overly generous with his estimates.

[*]High grade copies of these books have deteriorated over the last 10 years.

[*]Many of these books are in private collections and are not visible to the marketplace.

Another interesting note is the different standards applied for scarce and rare issues.

 

Ted

[MonumentalCo]

Ted,

Overstreet Guide #21 has the stats for Silver Age.

 

Tom

[murph0]

Will someone post overstreet's S.A. stats? I don't still have my Overstreet #21

 

Brian

[Crowzilla]

SA stats (courtesy OS #21)

 

Adventure #247 up to 500 exist 9 in Mint

Amazing Fantasy #15 up tp 1400 exist 45 in Mint

Amazing Spider-man #1 up to 1700 exist, 70 in Mint

Avengers #1 and 4 - no estimates

Brave & Bold #28 up to 530 exist, 23 in Mint

Brave & Bold #34 - no estimates

Detective #225 up to 400 exist, 21 in Mint

Fantastic Four #1 up to 1400 exist, 65 in Mint

Flash #105 up to 800 exist, 21 in Mint

Green Lantern #1 - no estimates

Incredible Hulk #1 up to 1200 exist, 32 in Mint

Journey Into Mystery #83 up to 1500 exist, 45 in Mint

Justice League #1 up to 1350 exist, 60 in Mint

Showcase #4 up to 470 exist, 9 in NM/Mint

Showcase #8 up to 790 exist, 20 in NM/Mint

Showcase #22 up to 650 exist, 25 in Mint

Tales of Suspense #39 up to 2100 exist, 55 in Mint

Tales to Astonish #27 up to 1600 exist, 50 in Mint

X-men #1 up to1900 exist, 60 in Mint

 

Note: None of the other Silver Age #1's or keys have estimates

listed - and most of the ones above (with the exception of Showcase)

high grade estimates are listed as "Mint" and not "NM/Mint"

(guess there's a lot of 9.8+ books still to be graded)

 

Sean

 

 

[murph0]

I'd be curious since they can get rough estimates for all the S.A. keys..shouldn't it be assumed that it's capable to figure out rough estimates for every silver and possibly bronze book?

 

Brian

[awe4one]

The most obvious observation is the large quantities of NM/MT books that Overstreet believes are in the marketplace. Given that this copy of the guide is 10 years old, we can arrive at 3 conclusions.

 

Overstreet was overly generous with his estimates.

High grade copies of these books have deteriorated over the last 10 years.

Many of these books are in private collections and are not visible to the marketplace.

 

Or CGC had overgraded to the point that these NM/MTs are now VFs.

 

 

Jim

[underthebigw]

Thanks for posting those. I can't seem to find my copy of OS 21 and was real curious about their figures.

 

That said, I refuse to believe these are accurate. Does anyone know how they derived these figures? There's just no way there's essentially as many copies of Hulk 1 and JIM 83 as there are AF 15 and ASM 1 (or should I say as few copies of AF 15 and ASM 1 as there are Hulk1 and JIM 83). Not even close. I think OS's figures are grossly underestimated and just can't take into consideration the number of unknown collectors who bought these books off the newstands or soon after they were initially published. Just as an example, a couple of years ago I came across an original owner "collection" (I use the term loosely-he was a reader who just loved the books) with copies of JLA 1 and GL1. I can only guess at how many hundreds and thousands of others are out there holding onto books that they picked up in the 60's and early 70's and who slipped under OS's radar.

[fantastic_four]

I agree that they could be off, but until somebody comes up with an empirical explanation of why he's off-base, I can't dispute those numbers.

[Crowzilla]

Or CGC had overgraded to the point that these NM/MTs are now VFs.

 

I'm still going to say that you guys are a bit misinformed in your thinking that all grading has changed since 91. Dealers like Fishler, Payette, Contarino and Edwards have maintained consistent standards, as well as top collectors like Jon Berk and Mike Dalessandro. (There are others of course, but these people stand out as great examples).

 

But all the Overstreet numbers are "guess estimates" and at best they are wildly inaccurate. I think that in time we will see that the guesstimates for existing copies is way too low (especially on Silver Age), and that guesstimates for copies in NM or better is way too high. For example there is no way that in the two short years of CGC's history they're already graded 30% of all the Detective #38's that still survive and/or that of the 50 that are left to grade, 8 of them are in NM or better shape. There is also NO WAY that there are 16 Batman #1's in NM/Mint shape (even if you count the dozen still to be discovered) out there. And 4 NM/Mint Action #1's - sorry, not happening.

 

Similar is true for the Silver Age. I think there are a lot more than 1700 copies of Spider-man #1 out there (probably at least 3x that many), but there aren't going to be 70 Mint copies for sure.

 

If I remember correctly, the numbers while not necessarily accurate (and neither is the Gerber guide), were all meant to be relative to themselves.

i.e. there might not be 1700 Spider-man #1's, but relatively speaking it is about 2x as common as Flash #105, or about 10x as common as All Star #8 with about 10x as many high grade copies remaining in existence. When used this way, I think the relative numbers still hold up fairly well.

 

One other note to make, is that many people in '91 might have thought they had nice unrestored copies of books are now finding out the opposite is true, and many of the top books have small amounts of work done to them. Geppi was well known for buying key books and always sought out unrestored ones, but as we saw from the summer Heritage auction, he was fooled many times with a slight tear seal here or small bits of color touch there.

 

Sean

 

 

[comicinvestor-migration]

Or, as should be obvious to anyone, a large number are in private collections, and the owners are not interested in selling and/or want to maintain their privacy.

 

The number of CGC graded copies of any book basically amount to those that are/were up for sale.

[comicinvestor-migration]

I agree that they could be off, but until somebody comes up with an empirical explanation of why he's off-base, I can't dispute those numbers.

 

This is kind of a bizarre statement, since the burden of proof falls on the one making this sort of outlandish claim. The number cannot (I repeat CANNOT) be anything more than logical guesses based on dealer input, and until someone searches each and every house in the world, then that's all they'll ever be.

[fantastic_four]

Logical guesses are all that my, your, CGC's, or Overstreet's words are, too. None of us apply strict science to comic collecting trends, we just do the best we feel like doing, lacking the money, discipline, or passion to spend the time to do a better job. Such is the way hobbies go.

 

Overstreet's 1991 numbers sound incorrect, but not "outlandish." Why are they "strikingly out of the ordinary"? The Mint figures are definitely outlandish, but the overall numbers sound only minorly and reasonably inaccurate.

[comicinvestor-migration]

Logical guesses are all that my, your, CGC's, or Overstreet's words are, too.

 

Not really, since I'm not deluding myself into thinking that "estimating the number of a given comic" is something that can be performed. Anyone who does try is either a insufficiently_thoughtful_person or has delusions of godhood.

[fantastic_four]

Overstreet never said that any number he has ever printed was absolute. He certainly never thought they were dead-on, "Godlike" estimates.

 

Overstreet's writing style communicates to me that he is far, far from being an arrogant egotist. He has always stated that his prices, his grading guidelines, and any other statistics that he offers are good-faith, best-effort, from-one-collector-to-another estimates at reality. He more than asks for his readers' input--for decades he wrote pleading requests in the front of the Guide for his readers to contribute corrections to what he printed. Overstreet isn't, and has never claimed in print to be, "Godlike." I'm sure he was as surprised as anybody that he became an industry icon like he has.

 

I've been asked more than once what the deal with your overbearing attitude is. I usually explain it by saying you're a "raging Overstreet wannabe." Which is admirable, but I wish you'd learn to cooperate with him as opposed to competing with him and railing on him. Overstreet himself seems to be at least partially a cooperative type of guy. Steve Borock seems much the same way, although his attitude is different--less open--because he's got a bigger business to keep running.

 

This was a long-winded way of requesting that you keep your criticism constructive, not destructive. If you think the numbers can be improved somehow, then please, help us out! I'm pretty sure the number of Amazing Fantasy 15s out there is somewhere between 200 and 20,000. If you've got a method to help narrow that number down, then please, contribute.

[comicinvestor-migration]

I've been asked more than once what the deal with your overbearing attitude is. I usually explain it by saying you're a "raging Overstreet wannabe."

 

Gee, my opinion on your IQ just slide even further down the scale; and you're rapidly approaching Swamp Toad. Let's all make up "Be Like Bob" buttons and start a club!!

 

My problem is people who pull numbers out of their butt, for whatever reason that is, when no one short of God can even have a rough estimate.

 

I would never, ever even contemplate being so incredibly egotistical to even utter a thought on the number of any specific comic that exists. If someone else does, then they've got an ego the size of Texas and talk out of their 99.9% of the time.

[awe4one]

I've always taken Overstreet's estimates to mean the number that are "known" to exist in the "marketplace". Not a hypothetical number of what "may" be out there overall.

 

 

Jim