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When will/will the WALKING DEAD bubble burst?
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Started by The-Collector,

3,607 posts in this topic

comix4fun

comix4fun

Posted
Posted
It's definitely losing steam.

The whole title is.

 

*Ahem*...

 

Someone has previously said this would happen...

 

Some Silver Age Dinosaur...

 

CAL. :grin:

 

 

 

Who could have been so prescient?!?! :o

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RedGiant

RedGiant

Posted
Posted (edited)

Being a stock trader for nearly 20 years, I read a lot of charts. A chart doesn't tell you everything, but it's a good starting point. Here is a one year chart for Walking Dead #1 CGC 9.8.

wdchart.jpg

What I see here is at the end of last year, this book become a legitimate $2k book. Popped through $2k, pulled back, held it, then went much higher, then for the last 6 months or so it has been in a range from $2k-$3k. This recent sale of $1,775 could be telling and it could be nothing. One trade doesn't make a trend, but it did make a significant drop through the support line of $2k. This sale with the recent clink sale, it could be trying to say this thing might pull back. That being said, it's not going to completely fall apart anytime soon, it might go down and test those $1500 levels. Then possibly the $1000 levels. I think there is going to be a lot of support for this book around $1000 for at least a few years, so if you missed the boat and are looking to pick one up for under $1k, you might be waiting for a long time. However, there are bigger macro indicators that play into this as well. The next season, future seasons, the franchise, spin-offs, zombie genre, the stock market, the comic market, the commodities market. There are so many factors it's tough to know where this thing is going. I think the safe bet right now is to let it settle down a bit. I don't think we are going to see $3k prices again anytime soon, but I don't think we are going to see sub-$1k prices anytime soon either. But if you want to wait a decade, in my opinion, there's a good chance you will be able to pick one up for around $500 or less. Only time will tell for sure.

 

EDIT/UPDATE: and here is the one year chart prior to that:

wdchart1.jpg

Which clearly looks like an uptrending chart to me, and not the same as the last year.

Edited by diestler
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ComicConnoisseur

ComicConnoisseur

Posted
Posted
Being a stock trader for nearly 20 years, I read a lot of charts. A chart doesn't tell you everything, but it's a good starting point. Here is a one year chart for Walking Dead #1 CGC 9.8.

wdchart.jpg

What I see here is at the end of last year, this book become a legitimate $2k book. Popped through $2k, pulled back, held it, then went much higher, then for the last 6 months or so it has been in a range from $2k-$3k. This recent sale of $1,775 could be telling and it could be nothing. One trade doesn't make a trend, but it did make a significant drop through the support line of $2k. This sale with the recent clink sale, it could be trying to say this thing might pull back. That being said, it's not going to completely fall apart anytime soon, it might go down and test those $1500 levels. Then possibly the $1000 levels. I think there is going to be a lot of support for this book around $1000 for at least a few years, so if you missed the boat and are looking to pick one up for under $1k, you might be waiting for a long time. However, there are bigger macro indicators that play into this as well. The next season, future seasons, the franchise, spin-offs, zombie genre, the stock market, the comic market, the commodities market. There are so many factors it's tough to know where this thing is going. I think the safe bet right now is to let it settle down a bit. I don't think we are going to see $3k prices again anytime soon, but I don't think we are going to see sub-$1k prices anytime soon either. But if you want to wait a decade, in my opinion, there's a good chance you will be able to pick one up for around $500 or less. Only time will tell for sure.

 

EDIT/UPDATE: and here is the one year chart prior to that:

wdchart1.jpg

Which clearly looks like an uptrending chart to me, and not the same as the last year.

Great point.

Also someone mentioned gold. Walking Dead #1 cgc 9.0 to 9.8 has been a better investment then the so called gold standard oz of gold this last 18 months.

In the long run Walking Dead #1 will be a good keeper,but the rest of the series not so.

I had a friend who bought a bunch of Walking Dead 100s and he took a bath this year trying to sell them.

So

Walking Dead #1 is a long-term winner,but the rest of the series is suspect.

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RedGiant

RedGiant

Posted
Posted

And to take this analysis a bit further because people keep talking about the "summer lull" that happened last year too, I just don't see it.

 

Looking at the last 6 transactions while season 2 wrapped up, the average selling price was $1,209. From that point on until June 21 of last summer, the average selling price was $1,360 - UP 12.5%.

 

This year, the average selling price of the last 6 transactions while season 3 was wrapping up, was $2,278. From that point on until today (June 21), the average selling price was $2,231 - DOWN 2.1%.

 

I think that myth has been busted.

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accessndx

accessndx

Posted
Posted
housewives will start giving Oral pleasure for $23.99.

Where do I sign up for that?

 

You want to start giving oral pleasure for $23.99?

 

(:

 

 

 

-slym

 

♪...nice work if you can get it and you can get it if you try...♫

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mschmidt

mschmidt

Posted
Posted
I had a friend who bought a bunch of Walking Dead 100s and he took a bath this year trying to sell them.

 

He decided to speculate on the issue that everyone said "don't speculate on" because it was fairly obvious that the print run would dwarf anything else printed that year?

 

Let me guess - he was big into Turok and Death of Superman as well, right?

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Darkowl

Darkowl

Posted
Posted
And the WD defenders are starting to come out of the woodwork.
Did you miss making a profit? Or did you miss the boat completely?

 

Neither. I purchased the book back in 2003 when it first came out. I was looking for horror comic books, I saw WD1 and thought it had a cool cover, so I picked it up. I had no clue I was going to sell it for $2500 ten years later.

 

 

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Darkowl

Darkowl

Posted
Posted
OMG the sky is falling...Anyone stop to think the fact that it is summertime and the show is not on TV at the moment it creating a dip

 

By my math the last 2 books sold for $125 under 12 month GPA and $225 under 90 day Big deal. The book is still trending up on average. Hence this is why it is an Average

 

So it is the tv show afterall thats supporting the value pillars? How much of a dip will there be when the show ends i wonder???

 

Enormous.

People will lose their homes, children will be pulled from University and housewives will start giving Oral pleasure for $23.99.

Cats and Dogs may even mate.

 

The anger over this books success is gobsmacking.

If you have one, well done. If not - oh well.

This book has bought more young people into comic book reading than any other for the last 15 years.

Why do you have to make a drama out of it?

Its a solid part of modern day pop-culture and should be embraced as such.

Chill out mate. :foryou:

 

Ironically, you have just contributed to the drama. Nice work...mate.

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comix4fun

comix4fun

Posted
Posted
Raw copy ended for over $1100 less than an hour ago

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/The-Walking-Dead-1-Oct-2003-Image/251289716461

 

 

"When I ship I will ship this comic as if it were my child so please don't worry about shipping issues"

 

 

 

So that means with air holes poked in the box and a bottle of water and a pack of Ritz crackers thrown in.

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Darkowl

Darkowl

Posted
Posted
Raw copy ended for over $1100 less than an hour ago

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/The-Walking-Dead-1-Oct-2003-Image/251289716461

 

 

"When I ship I will ship this comic as if it were my child so please don't worry about shipping issues"

 

 

 

So that means with air holes poked in the box and a bottle of water and a pack of Ritz crackers thrown in.

 

:roflmao:

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