When will/will the WALKING DEAD bubble burst? 7 7

[stock_rotation]

MT40 sold yesterday for $610:

 

Mystery Tales 40

 

This book in VG went for about $50 before it was on Lost.

 

[ItsJustRyan]

Demand outstrips demand hence the premium price of TWD #1...

 

You've got tens of thousands of fans (validated by current TWD print runs) that would love to get there hands on a #1.

 

Less than 500 9.8's on the census. Just over 1500 total slabbed. Sure there are raws out there, but who knows the condition and they are not being dropped on the market en mass, but are available.

 

I'd love to see prices come down to $500 for a 9.8, because I'd jump all over it... But I'm not holding my breath.

 

There are, what, like 35 or so copies on ebay at any time? I'm gonna say demand has not outstripped supply.

 

Of course it has... That's like saying there are a 1000 houses for sale at the beach. Everyone wants a beach house, hence that demand drives up the price to a level where the seller can maximize asking prices. Just because there's a lot of something doesn't mean the demand is not there. It means the price has reached a point to curtail rapid sell-outs.

 

How many TWD #1 would be on eBay if the price was $100 per?

 

Again, that is a logical fallacy. You can't pick another scenario and use it as a metaphor just because you like the point it proves. The situations are completely unrelated and stem from very different criteria. For instance: you cannot say that housing supply (necessary for human life) is the same as WD1 supply (NOT necessary for human life). Therefore the market dynamics are not the same, regardless of an economic supply and demand principle..

 

When 35 WD1 are on eBay at any given time and dozens of them remain unsold from month to month, that means that supply is outpacing demand. It doesn't necessarily mean the bubble has burst yet, or growth still isn't happening; but it does mean that the growth curve has slowed significantly.

 

 

 

The whole point of this thread is to predict when the bubble will burst, but I have not seen anyone provide any evidence that it will not.

 

 

Yes, I can use the housing analogy to argue my point - it's a "logical fallacy' for you to try to break my point regarding supply and demand based on perceived needs and wants

 

There are X number of people in America that are homeless. The demand for homes is there, but sadly they cannot afford one. There are X number of Walking Dead collectors that want a #1, but $1500+ might be too rich for their blood.

 

This is simple economics (supply and demand). Just because something is available and sits unsold doesn't mean there is no demand. There is. Go back to my previous post and answer the question... How many TWD #1 would be available if they were listed @ $100 per?

[ItsJustRyan]

However, I could be wrong about these two books...

 

And you don't have to qualify your statements with a disclaimer... it's okay to be wrong. I'm wrong a lot and move on. Being wrong identifies instantly what was right.

[BarryAllen]

Demand outstrips demand hence the premium price of TWD #1...

 

You've got tens of thousands of fans (validated by current TWD print runs) that would love to get there hands on a #1.

 

Less than 500 9.8's on the census. Just over 1500 total slabbed. Sure there are raws out there, but who knows the condition and they are not being dropped on the market en mass, but are available.

 

I'd love to see prices come down to $500 for a 9.8, because I'd jump all over it... But I'm not holding my breath.

 

There are, what, like 35 or so copies on ebay at any time? I'm gonna say demand has not outstripped supply.

 

Of course it has... That's like saying there are a 1000 houses for sale at the beach. Everyone wants a beach house, hence that demand drives up the price to a level where the seller can maximize asking prices. Just because there's a lot of something doesn't mean the demand is not there. It means the price has reached a point to curtail rapid sell-outs.

 

How many TWD #1 would be on eBay if the price was $100 per?

 

Again, that is a logical fallacy. You can't pick another scenario and use it as a metaphor just because you like the point it proves. The situations are completely unrelated and stem from very different criteria. For instance: you cannot say that housing supply (necessary for human life) is the same as WD1 supply (NOT necessary for human life). Therefore the market dynamics are not the same, regardless of an economic supply and demand principle..

 

When 35 WD1 are on eBay at any given time and dozens of them remain unsold from month to month, that means that supply is outpacing demand. It doesn't necessarily mean the bubble has burst yet, or growth still isn't happening; but it does mean that the growth curve has slowed significantly.

 

 

 

The whole point of this thread is to predict when the bubble will burst, but I have not seen anyone provide any evidence that it will not.

 

 

Yes, I can use the housing analogy to argue my point - it's a "logical fallacy' for you to try to break my point regarding supply and demand based on perceived needs and wants

 

There are X number of people in America that are homeless. The demand for homes is there, but sadly they cannot afford one. There are X number of Walking Dead collectors that want a #1, but $1500+ might be too rich for their blood.

 

This is simple economics (supply and demand). Just because something is available and sits unsold doesn't mean there is no demand. There is. Go back to my previous post and answer the question... How many TWD #1 would be available if they were listed @ $100 per?

 

We don't need to get into economic theory here, but the two are honestly not the same. Prices, while driven by supply and demand, also have additional criterion that attribute to successful purchases and sales. For instance, "needs" and "wants" garner different economic responses driving supply and demand. Houses and comics would not demonstrate the same supply/demand curves.

 

Can we get back to the point of the thread? When do you think the bubble will burst?

[BarryAllen]

However, I could be wrong about these two books...

 

And you don't have to qualify your statements with a disclaimer... it's okay to be wrong. I'm wrong a lot and move on. Being wrong identifies instantly what was right.

 

Nice!

[ItsJustRyan]

Can we get back to the point of the thread? When do you think the bubble will burst?

 

Sure...

 

Ask:

 

(1) Beanie Babies

(2) Cabbage Patch Kids

(3) Garbage Pail Kids

(4) Retro toys

(5) Sports cards

(6) Presidential campaign buttons

(7) Bear traps

(8) Vintage Disney

(9) Movie memorabilia

(10) Original art

 

All these categories of collectibles have life-cycles that go up and down and all around. TWD is no different. My simple prediction (with no qualifiers) is that the books will continue to do well through the shows run. They may see peaks and valleys in between seasons, but will be consistent in the short-term.

 

AFTER THE SHOW ENDS... I think prices will go down. Reference Harry Potter and Twilight. When a driving force ends, people are on to the next thing. BUT, I also believe that after a downward trend there will be a return (nostalgia) for these books. People seeking them out that had them 15-20 years ago.

 

Anything is game, but that's my prediction. I've seen it across many other collectibles.

[BarryAllen]

Can we get back to the point of the thread? When do you think the bubble will burst?

 

Sure...

 

Ask:

 

(1) Beanie Babies

(2) Cabbage Patch Kids

(3) Garbage Pail Kids

(4) Retro toys

(5) Sports cards

(6) Presidential campaign buttons

(7) Bear traps

(8) Vintage Disney

(9) Movie memorabilia

(10) Original art

 

All these categories of collectibles have life-cycles that go up and down and all around. TWD is no different. My simple prediction (with no qualifiers) is that the books will continue to do well through the shows run. They my see peaks and valleys in between seasons, but will consistent in the short-term.

 

AFTER THE SHOW ENDS... I think prices will go down. Reference Harry Potter and Twilight. When a driving force ends, people are on to the next thing. BUT, I also believe that after a downward trend there will be a return (nostalgia) for these books. People seeking them out that had them 15-20 years ago.

 

Anything is game, but that's my prediction. I've seen it across many other collectibles.

 

Fair enough. I agree with most of what you said (not sure if I agree on all the examples, but most are good), but I do not see a lot of "nostalgia" for the show in 15-20 years. Something about a repititve zombie movie not resonating with the young children of today enough that 20 years from now when they are in the 30's to drive them to go out and buy this book in droves..

 

Certainly not enough to drive more than $100 a book for a 9.8.

 

But that is my opinion.

[rjpb]

MT40 sold yesterday for $610:

 

Mystery Tales 40

 

This book in VG went for about $50 before it was on Lost.

 

I don't think you will convince rfoiii of that. He seems convinced there is some other factor that keeps a post-code Atlas fantasy book with a fairly pedestrian cover in demand, even though surrounding issues are still only $50 books in that condition, and that Catwoman 51 selling for what it does is some sort of statistical ebay noise.

 

Personally, I think the demand for the Catwoman book is absurd, it's only connection to the show is an oblique reference to it on the cover, but it's continued popularity does show the sustained interest in the more mysterious elements of the show.

[COI]

Douchenomics

[BarryAllen]

MT40 sold yesterday for $610:

 

Mystery Tales 40

 

This book in VG went for about $50 before it was on Lost.

 

I don't think you will convince rfoiii of that. He seems convinced there is some other factor that keeps a post-code Atlas fantasy book with a fairly pedestrian cover in demand, even though surrounding issues are still only $50 books in that condition, and that Catwoman 51 selling for what it does is some sort of statistical ebay noise.

 

Personally, I think the demand for the Catwoman book is absurd, it's only connection to the show is an oblique reference to it on the cover, but it's continued popularity does show the sustained interest in the more mysterious elements of the show.

 

It's not that I can't be convinced, it's that there has been little evidence presented other than the one cited sale. Maybe they are buoyed by the show, but that doesn't mean they are smart buys (particularly in the long-term).

 

Regardless, these books were used as a proxy argument to prove that Walking Dead #1 will hold value long-term. That was not accomplished and to be honest it wasn't a persuasive argument to begin with.

 

I am still waiting for someone to present a valid argument that WD1 prices won't fall off a cliff.

Edited July 2, 2013 by rfoiii

[Iceman399]

 

I am still waiting for someone to present a valid argument that WD1 prices won't fall off a cliff.

 

Because I said so.

[ChicksCosmiComics]

 

I am still waiting for someone to present a valid argument that WD1 prices won't fall off a cliff.

 

Because I said so.

 

If it does go down if nobody cries the sky is falling and floods the market it won't fall off a cliff

[originalisbest]

If heroes was a comic before it was a tv show with 60 plus issues under its belt before the first episode aired, im willing to bet the first issue would be a collectible.

 

Maybe, but I doubt it. There just isn't anything of substance to WD (or Heroes/Lost for that matter). What gives ALL successful comics long-term big value is the characters they feature. Without a great title character that reaches out to millions of people (beginning with children/kids), you don't have anything but a fad.

 

Heroes, Lost, Walking Dead - all great examples of shows/movies that drew large audiences and popularity while available. They air, grow tired and fizzle away with a "pop" instead of a "bang." Minor, lack-luster characters and circular plot lines were common in all three.

 

Star Trek and Star Wars - great examples of shows/movies that inspired generations and created a fandom that is routed in childhood and expressed in adult purchase power. Epic characters defined these genre(s).

 

, some of your arguments are well-reasoned, but this one falls far short. Not sure if you've read the comic at all; it's character-driven at its core, and the zombies are peripheral at best.

[ItsJustRyan]

If heroes was a comic before it was a tv show with 60 plus issues under its belt before the first episode aired, im willing to bet the first issue would be a collectible.

 

Maybe, but I doubt it. There just isn't anything of substance to WD (or Heroes/Lost for that matter). What gives ALL successful comics long-term big value is the characters they feature. Without a great title character that reaches out to millions of people (beginning with children/kids), you don't have anything but a fad.

 

Heroes, Lost, Walking Dead - all great examples of shows/movies that drew large audiences and popularity while available. They air, grow tired and fizzle away with a "pop" instead of a "bang." Minor, lack-luster characters and circular plot lines were common in all three.

 

Star Trek and Star Wars - great examples of shows/movies that inspired generations and created a fandom that is routed in childhood and expressed in adult purchase power. Epic characters defined these genre(s).

 

, some of your arguments are well-reasoned, but this one falls far short. Not sure if you've read the comic at all; it's character-driven at its core, and the zombies are peripheral at best.

 

I don't remember the issue count exactly, but it was like 17 or 18 issues in the back half of the series that did not have ONE zombie in it. Someone else will remember the details...

[rjpb]

MT40 sold yesterday for $610:

 

Mystery Tales 40

 

This book in VG went for about $50 before it was on Lost.

 

I don't think you will convince rfoiii of that. He seems convinced there is some other factor that keeps a post-code Atlas fantasy book with a fairly pedestrian cover in demand, even though surrounding issues are still only $50 books in that condition, and that Catwoman 51 selling for what it does is some sort of statistical ebay noise.

 

Personally, I think the demand for the Catwoman book is absurd, it's only connection to the show is an oblique reference to it on the cover, but it's continued popularity does show the sustained interest in the more mysterious elements of the show.

 

It's not that I can't be convinced, it's that there has been little evidence presented other than the one cited sale. Maybe they are buoyed by the show, but that doesn't mean they are smart buys (particularly in the long-term).

 

I don't disagree with that

 

Regardless, these books were used as a proxy argument to prove that Walking Dead #1 will hold value long-term. That was not accomplished and to be honest it wasn't a persuasive argument to begin with.

 

No they weren't. They were used as examples of TV show related books that sustain value for a few years after the show comes to an end, and as an argument that there is no guarantee that TWD #1 will drop significantly in value as soon as the show runs it's course. It might, it might not, and even if it doesn't I think it lacks the readily identifiable and potentially marketable core characters that have sustained long term interest in titles no longer at their peak like TMNT, Cerebus and Bone, and have doubts about long-term viability.

 

I am still waiting for someone to present a valid argument that WD1 prices won't fall off a cliff.

 

I suspect you wouldn't accept it, even if it were presented.

 

 

[BarryAllen]

MT40 sold yesterday for $610:

 

Mystery Tales 40

 

This book in VG went for about $50 before it was on Lost.

 

I don't think you will convince rfoiii of that. He seems convinced there is some other factor that keeps a post-code Atlas fantasy book with a fairly pedestrian cover in demand, even though surrounding issues are still only $50 books in that condition, and that Catwoman 51 selling for what it does is some sort of statistical ebay noise.

 

Personally, I think the demand for the Catwoman book is absurd, it's only connection to the show is an oblique reference to it on the cover, but it's continued popularity does show the sustained interest in the more mysterious elements of the show.

 

It's not that I can't be convinced, it's that there has been little evidence presented other than the one cited sale. Maybe they are buoyed by the show, but that doesn't mean they are smart buys (particularly in the long-term).

 

I don't disagree with that

 

Regardless, these books were used as a proxy argument to prove that Walking Dead #1 will hold value long-term. That was not accomplished and to be honest it wasn't a persuasive argument to begin with.

 

No they weren't. They were used as examples of TV show related books that sustain value for a few years after the show comes to an end, and as an argument that there is no guarantee that TWD #1 will drop significantly in value as soon as the show runs it's course. It might, it might not, and even if it doesn't I think it lacks the readily identifiable and potentially marketable core characters that have sustained long term interest in titles no longer at their peak like TMNT, Cerebus and Bone, and have doubts about long-term viability.

 

I am still waiting for someone to present a valid argument that WD1 prices won't fall off a cliff.

 

I suspect you wouldn't accept it, even if it were presented.

 

 

 

Try me.

[BarryAllen]

If heroes was a comic before it was a tv show with 60 plus issues under its belt before the first episode aired, im willing to bet the first issue would be a collectible.

 

Maybe, but I doubt it. There just isn't anything of substance to WD (or Heroes/Lost for that matter). What gives ALL successful comics long-term big value is the characters they feature. Without a great title character that reaches out to millions of people (beginning with children/kids), you don't have anything but a fad.

 

Heroes, Lost, Walking Dead - all great examples of shows/movies that drew large audiences and popularity while available. They air, grow tired and fizzle away with a "pop" instead of a "bang." Minor, lack-luster characters and circular plot lines were common in all three.

 

Star Trek and Star Wars - great examples of shows/movies that inspired generations and created a fandom that is routed in childhood and expressed in adult purchase power. Epic characters defined these genre(s).

 

, some of your arguments are well-reasoned, but this one falls far short. Not sure if you've read the comic at all; it's character-driven at its core, and the zombies are peripheral at best.

 

Character driven story lines and iconic lasting characters are different in my mind.

 

Do you disagree?

[ItsJustRyan]

I'm going with the on this one...

[thunsicker]

The Marvel Tales comparison doesn't work for me. In Mystery Tales case you are talking about a 57 year old comic with 3 issues on the census. It only takes a dozen or two Lost collectors (as well as horror comic collectors) to drive the price of an issue up to $600. In the Walking Dead case you are talking about a 10 year old comic with over 1500 issues on the census. It would take thousands and thousands of Walking Dead collectors to drive the comic up to $2000. While there might still be a couple dozen people who were really into Lost still I'm not sure there will be the thousands and thousands of collectors who are into The Walking Dead 5 years after the tv series ends.

 

And I have no dog in the fight here. I don't really care if the price goes up or down. I'm not looking to sell or buy an issue.

[rjrjr]

The Marvel Tales comparison doesn't work for me. In Mystery Tales case you are talking about a 57 year old comic with 3 issues on the census. It only takes a dozen or two Lost collectors (as well as horror comic collectors) to drive the price of an issue up to $600. In the Walking Dead case you are talking about a 10 year old comic with over 1500 issues on the census. It would take thousands and thousands of Walking Dead collectors to drive the comic up to $2000. While there might still be a couple dozen people who were really into Lost still I'm not sure there will be the thousands and thousands of collectors who are into The Walking Dead 5 years after the tv series ends.

 

 

I think this would really depend on the Walking Dead comic though. If the new issues of the comic are still selling well when the TV series ends, I don't think you'll see a substantial drop in the prices. While the TV series gave the early issues a boost in value, the comic was popular and climbing in price long before the TV series came about. The TV series did bring more interest to the title, we all acknowledge that. The question is, does the Walking Dead comic have life after the TV series? I'm guessing so, since it had plenty of life before the TV series.

 

The Walking Dead is breaking new ground in many regards. There are no American comic books that I can think of that are character driven that lasted as long as this title has. Furthermore, there does not seem to be a defined end for the series like many titles of it's kind, so the series can continue well past the creator's interest in the title, if the creator wants. I could see a day where all the original main characters are gone and this series is still selling well.

 

I think for the most part, the title has been handled well. The 100th issue was a money grab absolutely, but when you consider the popularity of this title (not just pamphlets, but also in TPB), it was a smart move not to start pumping out auxiliary titles to accompany the main title. If this were a Marvel or DC title, there would be 12 different titles and the interest would have been killed long before now. By keeping the focus on the single monthly comic, the creator has managed to keep interest in this title high. As long as that continues, I don't see the Walking Dead comic fading into obscurity like many here are foretelling.

Edited July 2, 2013 by rjrjr