Brave & Bold #28: Speculation on future pricing 4 4

[BarryAllen]

2.5 sold on eBay for $725 yesterday...

 

Thoughts?

[Mishmashman]

The last comment you made is the most salient: "a butt kicking movie". That's on the horizon. As far as GL SC22 is concerned: that took a hit most probably because of the lukewarm if not ice cold movie reviews. I can't speak to which is more scarce but with the relaunch of the DC franchises after MOS the gloves are off.

To say that BB28 won't steadily increase in value approaching a movie that hasn't happened yet vs. a plateau that was established after a movie flopped with it's corresponding book (SC 22) demonstrating marked increases in pricing prior to the movie is a bit off IMO.

That said, your opinion is equivalently as valuble as anyone else's regarding this subject...that's why we're here speculating on the future. I agree that SC cooled off, but some of that cooling was related to the movie and other soft sales were related to the perceived quality of the book being sold. I believe there were some defects folks pointed out regarding those more recent SC sales. The defects were more probably related to the lighter sales #s as is probably the case with some of the softer BB28 sales as well.

I don't expect every sale to be a new high but if you don't believe that this book is going to become more valuable than it already is based merely upon the elapsing of time I don't know what might convince you otherwise. That coupled with a movie that is anticipated to go toe to toe with the Avengers I feel rather confident that we're going to see more growth.

 

My point in referring to the SC22 sale four months before Green Lantern's theatrical release was that that price was buoyed by movie hype (apparently). Prices softened on SC22 only *after* the movie came out and blew big time. I see the same hype happening here but 4 years ahead of JLA's movie release instead of 4 months. Some desperately want to pick up a copy of BB28 before prices go even higher. But what makes anyone think prices will go higher? Again, it doesn't make sense that it should be worth more than a pre-movie hype SC22 when both are just as hard to find in grade (SC22 even moreso) and with GL being arguably just as, if not more, popular than JLA.

 

IMO, What people need to ask about this book is whether they think it's worth more than SC22 at this point. To me, the answer is a resounding no. A good JLA movie is far, far, far from a given.

 

By way of comparison, the TTA27 hype train seems to have screeched to a halt because I suspect people are asking themselves, Do I want to pay JIM83 prices for Antman?

Edited July 3, 2013 by Mishmashman

[peewee22]

The last comment you made is the most salient: "a butt kicking movie". That's on the horizon. As far as GL SC22 is concerned: that took a hit most probably because of the lukewarm if not ice cold movie reviews. I can't speak to which is more scarce but with the relaunch of the DC franchises after MOS the gloves are off.

To say that BB28 won't steadily increase in value approaching a movie that hasn't happened yet vs. a plateau that was established after a movie flopped with it's corresponding book (SC 22) demonstrating marked increases in pricing prior to the movie is a bit off IMO.

That said, your opinion is equivalently as valuble as anyone else's regarding this subject...that's why we're here speculating on the future. I agree that SC cooled off, but some of that cooling was related to the movie and other soft sales were related to the perceived quality of the book being sold. I believe there were some defects folks pointed out regarding those more recent SC sales. The defects were more probably related to the lighter sales #s as is probably the case with some of the softer BB28 sales as well.

I don't expect every sale to be a new high but if you don't believe that this book is going to become more valuable than it already is based merely upon the elapsing of time I don't know what might convince you otherwise. That coupled with a movie that is anticipated to go toe to toe with the Avengers I feel rather confident that we're going to see more growth.

 

My point in referring to the SC22 sale four months before Green Lantern's theatrical release was that that price was buoyed by movie hype (apparently). Prices softened on SC22 only *after* the movie came out and blew big time. I see the same hype happening here but 4 years ahead of JLA's movie release instead of 4 months. Some desperately want to pick up a copy of BB28 before prices go even higher. But what makes anyone think prices will go higher? Again, it doesn't make sense that it should be worth more than a pre-movie hype SC22 when both are just as hard to find in grade (SC22 even moreso) and with GL being arguably just as, if not more, popular than JLA.

 

IMO, What people need to ask about this book is whether they think it's worth more than SC22 at this point. To me, the answer is a resounding no. A good JLA movie is far, far, far from a given.

 

By way of comparison, the TTA27 hype train seems to have screeched to a halt because I suspect people are asking themselves, Do I want to pay JIM83 prices for Antman?

 

Buy AF15s and you want have to put up with all this DC krap.

[nearmint]

2.5 sold on eBay for $725 yesterday...

 

Thoughts?

 

Sold for less than even 2.0s have been selling for, but not an attractive copy, so that's to be expected. I wonder if it will reappear with a BIN of $995?

[Beige]

The last comment you made is the most salient: "a butt kicking movie". That's on the horizon. As far as GL SC22 is concerned: that took a hit most probably because of the lukewarm if not ice cold movie reviews. I can't speak to which is more scarce but with the relaunch of the DC franchises after MOS the gloves are off.

To say that BB28 won't steadily increase in value approaching a movie that hasn't happened yet vs. a plateau that was established after a movie flopped with it's corresponding book (SC 22) demonstrating marked increases in pricing prior to the movie is a bit off IMO.

That said, your opinion is equivalently as valuble as anyone else's regarding this subject...that's why we're here speculating on the future. I agree that SC cooled off, but some of that cooling was related to the movie and other soft sales were related to the perceived quality of the book being sold. I believe there were some defects folks pointed out regarding those more recent SC sales. The defects were more probably related to the lighter sales #s as is probably the case with some of the softer BB28 sales as well.

I don't expect every sale to be a new high but if you don't believe that this book is going to become more valuable than it already is based merely upon the elapsing of time I don't know what might convince you otherwise. That coupled with a movie that is anticipated to go toe to toe with the Avengers I feel rather confident that we're going to see more growth.

 

My point in referring to the SC22 sale four months before Green Lantern's theatrical release was that that price was buoyed by movie hype (apparently). Prices softened on SC22 only *after* the movie came out and blew big time. I see the same hype happening here but 4 years ahead of JLA's movie release instead of 4 months. Some desperately want to pick up a copy of BB28 before prices go even higher. But what makes anyone think prices will go higher? Again, it doesn't make sense that it should be worth more than a pre-movie hype SC22 when both are just as hard to find in grade (SC22 even moreso) and with GL being arguably just as, if not more, popular than JLA.

 

IMO, What people need to ask about this book is whether they think it's worth more than SC22 at this point. To me, the answer is a resounding no. A good JLA movie is far, far, far from a given.

 

By way of comparison, the TTA27 hype train seems to have screeched to a halt because I suspect people are asking themselves, Do I want to pay JIM83 prices for Antman?

 

TBH - I suspect its more to do with the first appearance of Ant-man in costume growing rapidly in price.

The market may be speaking about the relevancy of TTA #27 vs TTA #35

I don't have either sadly.........

 

[Boba]

Buy AF15s and you want have to put up with all this DC krap.

Yes but with DC's there is room to grow in price whereas AF15's are already at a peak, IMHO.

[accessndx]

The arguments about SC22 peaking 4 months prior to the GL movie is precisely what I was referring to. I'm not sure how there could be a BB28 peak 4 years before a similar movie. Why would the growth have peaked so much earlier? You're using an example I think is great but using an entirely different timeline to justify stating the book is going flat.

[JLA Brad]

There has been, and will be, a lot of hype surrounding an upcoming JLA movie. It gets mentioned a lot in articles about MOS and will only continue over time as another Avengers comes out and people inevitably ask the question about when the JLA will make their appearance.

 

I have to agree that the demand for this book will continue to increase over the next couple of years - most of it on the backs of speculators. If and when the movie comes out, its quality will determine the direction the book goes from that point.

 

The question is will the price go to a point where collectors become willing to part with their copies (as opposed to speculators), bringing more copies into the marketplace?

[accessndx]

Agreed, but with relation to the division between speculators and collectors. They are often one in the same. The activities of both groups are intimately intertwined.

[Boba]

I think is simple - a bunch of people realized they could buy major DC for so cheap and this was just a correction. I think it'll settle down for a while and bump slowly upward as new films release. But I don't think the price spike was solely result of the movie. Certainly it served as a spark.

[AmazingSaul]

Guys, won't post article here. But CNN just posted an article on the justice league movie. They have stated Bale will not be Batman. Batman is going to be a rebooted batman. Read it on CNN its one of the main articles at the bottom.

[accessndx]

On a side note: just grabbed up some super reasonable 9.8 slabs of Cyborg's first appearance (well below current GPA of $258). They have a front cover that is prone to color breaking spine ticks so if you're trying to scoop up raws it's more difficult than it appears to get a 9.8. So many are listed as NM but they are using that description quite liberally. These comics listed around the 400+ mark on the GPA a few years back and slid down to around the 250+ mark. (Highest 9.8 recorded sale was $500 in 2004 with the lowest recorded sale of $118 in 2012) They are likely to see growth if there's info. suggesting Cyborg will join the JLA on the screen.

I think all the signs are there for certain. There aren't many other African-American JLA members that already have a history with the small screen or other media and there has already been preliminary talk about his appearance (beyond this thread).

If you're a really forward thinker and speculator this is the comic to get IMHO. Plus it's the first appearance of Raven and Starfire. This comic may see resurgence regardless of JLA inclusion due to this generation of t.v. viewers becoming active in the market at some point in the forseeable future.

[Boba]

Guys, won't post article here. But CNN just posted an article on the justice league movie. They have stated Bale will not be Batman. Batman is going to be a rebooted batman. Read it on CNN its one of the main articles at the bottom.

 

Had to hunt a little, but . . .

http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/01/showbiz/bale-out-of-justice-league-ew/index.html?hpt=hp_bn9

[accessndx]

I'm relieved it's not Bale. Like I've said before: he doesn't strike me as the world's greatest detective. He isn't the glue that holds the JLA together and he wouldn't be able to portray a Batman that could go up against any other leaguer and take them down. That's the Bats I know and love....not the monosyllabic grunting and stiff one that was in the Nolan flicks.

[Mishmashman]

The arguments about SC22 peaking 4 months prior to the GL movie is precisely what I was referring to. I'm not sure how there could be a BB28 peak 4 years before a similar movie. Why would the growth have peaked so much earlier? You're using an example I think is great but using an entirely different timeline to justify stating the book is going flat.

 

I can't explain why the book is, in my opinion, peaking so much earlier than SC22. If you look at the comparable facts between the two books, it doesn't make much sense that BB28 is now perceivably so much more valuable than SC22, aside from the likelihood that speculators are driving up BB28's value.

 

Look at the facts.

 

SC22 Census numbers (published Sept/Oct 1959):

 

Near Mint 9.4 0

Near Mint - 9.2 1

Very Fine/Near Mint 9.0 3

Very Fine + 8.5 4

Very Fine 8.0 6

Very Fine - 7.5 7

Fine/Very Fine 7.0 16

Fine + 6.5 13

Fine 6.0 19

 

BB28 Census numbers (published Feb/Mar 1960)

 

Near Mint 9.4 1

Near Mint - 9.2 1

Very Fine/Near Mint 9.0 7

Very Fine + 8.5 4

Very Fine 8.0 15

Very Fine - 7.5 12

Fine/Very Fine 7.0 17

Fine + 6.5 19

Fine 6.0 23

 

What's clear is that SC22 is harder to find in grades 6.0 and better than BB28, with SC22 having absolutely no copies better than 9.2 (a CLink 9.2 just sold for $66K). What isn't clear is whether JLA's first appearance is more popular and sought after than Green Lantern's. My belief is that JLA is not more popular than Green Lantern. IMO, BB28 is only more sought after now because of movie hype. Man of Steel, I believe, has only added fuel to that fire (I haven't seen it, but the movie reviews I've read have been tepid.)

 

Many collectors/speculators think prices on BB28 will continue to go up. But when I look at the census numbers, the perceived popularity of JLA vis-a-vis Green Lantern, and the rapid increase in prices just over a one year period (a 6.0 has increased by over 80% in the last year according to GPA) what I'm seeing is, at best, the prices of this book plateauing, and, at worst, a bubble forming around BB28.

 

When people say this book is undervalued, I just don't buy it. It was undervalued in 2010 or 2011. Maybe even in 2012. But not in 2013.

 

If I owned a copy (I don't), I'd be selling it as I do not have much faith in its growth potential.

[accessndx]

Admittedly much of your opinion seems to be predicated on "the JLA" not being "more popular than Green Lantern". The rest is straight numbers which are hard to disagree with. I'm not saying you're wrong, but I am saying that GL was not a 'reboot' of the DC franchises. As much as I wish it was a slam dunk hit that knocked it out of the park it demonstrated that GL doesn't resound with the public as much as I'd like (at least not with that movie). Then there was the cancellation of the GL animated series which I truly loved. The GL franchise came to a screeching halt with Reynolds retrospectively bad mouthing the first movie and stating he wasn't really interested in a sequel which was reinforced by the studios. All of that may have had more of an impact on pricing as well as what I've stated before: some of the books that sold for less had PQ that was less than desirable or there were defects that stood out in spite of the grade. All impactful. None of this is to say that BB28 won't fizzle out or plateau or even heat up more....

All I'm getting at is that if there is a connection between movies and pricing that it'll be more readily discernable as we approach a JLA movie, quality notwithstanding. If you want to go out on a limb and say there's not going to be a movie that's an entirely different ball of wax which I'd have to vehemently disagree with based upon everything that's happened leading up to and since MOS.

The movie could come out and totally suck. I do think it's highly unlikely however.

 

http://www.hitfix.com/news/man-of-steel-writer-hints-that-the-film-teases-the-existence-of-cyborg

BTW Here's a cliff notes look back at what D. Goyer said pertaining to Cyborg:

Screenwriter David S. Goyer confirmed that "Steel" not only features visual nods to Lex Luthor's LexCorp and Bruce Wayne's Wayne Enterprises, but also makes a blink-and-you'll-miss-it connection to a less famous DC hero.

 

Goyer told MTV, "We mentioned S.T.A.R. Labs at one point, that's kind of a connection to Cyborg." Once a key member of the Teen Titans (which also featured Batman's sidekick Robin), Cyborg has in recent comic book lore become a founding member of the Justice League.

 

Goyer also talked about the possibility of writing a "Justice League" film -- which would most likely team Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman, Cyborg and other heroes (but maybe not the shapeshifting B-lister Metamorpho).

[AmazingSaul]

It's probably temporary. Showcase 22 will most likely pick up steam before JLA hits. He would be a main character in JLA I am assuming. So it should become popular? I also believe Flash will as well. Right now is a great time to buy showcase 22 and flash books. I have no idea how much they would increase pre trailer.

[AmazingSaul]

I take that back maybe Flash will be left out of the justice league movie?

[accessndx]

I take that back maybe Flash will be left out of the justice league movie?

 

No freaking way: there's absolutely going to be Supes, Bats, WW, GL & Flash. I can't see them going forward without them. Beyond that everyone else is speculation.

[AmazingSaul]

I really hope so... But I just have a feeling they won't? They usually don't add too many main characters to films. They still need a villain as well. I feel at this point they rather use cyborg than flash? I feel Martian Manhunter will be left out as well. I seriously hope they don't leave flash out. I would be a little disappointed. Flash is far more important than cyborg...