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East of West
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Started by CBT,

9,321 posts in this topic

Mike's Rack

Mike's Rack

Posted
Posted
well, usually all I get is hate for my comments lol . It's nice to get some love too :) . As for the blog post, as a computer guy, I get it. I don't think it's creepy, it's just like saving a notepad text file of quotes for easy reference later.

 

I see in that one quote, my top end for acceptable values for the EoW RRP was a bit higher than what I said yesterday. But, since that original quote, we have had 9.8s of regular 1st prints start to built a price point.

 

In addition, pretty much all "hot" image moderns are tracking downwards at the same time. I suppose as the velocity up is so fast now, it shouldnt surprise that the mean time to price dip is shortening too.

 

I think its a combination of those factors that lead me to putting a lower high end top on what I would pay for the RRP. It makes me wonder if Image "rare variants" might be starting to show the big 2 style pattern for variants of "highest price at release, then decline to real value." Obviously, we aren't there yet, but I suppose that comes with desirability.

 

Image "rare variants" used to be overlooked because no one cared about series they hadnt heard of. Now, they all catch fire in the chase of the next "saga rrp", and then it's up to the book's buzz, optioning, to hold the price...

 

Edit:

=======

As I like to say about WD, and chasing the next WD: "is WD really WD"

so to I'll say it:

"is the Saga RRP really the Saga RRP".

 

 

and for any one who is drunk and doesnt get what i mean, "hat-tip to jjoseph7772 ", if people are going to chase the "next Saga RRP", they should make sure that the Saga RRP really is worth what people are paying for it. If it's price collapses, the "next" ones will likely follow suit, with the ceiling they can reach having lowered accordingly.

 

 

Edit 2:

=======

motley fool is great, as is seekingalpha, and zerohedge. contrarian economics ftw

 

 

 

I know Saga's going through a dip because of the break, but the RRP is sinking fast. This was a 1,300 book a month or so ago, and now 9.8's are going for 800 on ebay. No reason why i wouldn't think it would slip more. If you can get a Raw for $100 or so, why not? You'll at least break even.

I agree this is one to watch during the break and if you can get a raw for $100, snatch it up. But I don't think the price swing has been that drastic yet. I also think a lot of people are watching, hoping to grab a bargain. GPA shows the highest sale for a blue at $1025 with sales of $710 and $760 in February and March. Yellows had one sale at $1400 but the rest were closer to $1000 with the most recent being in march at $1284. Did something sell really low in the last week that hasn't been reported on GPA?
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CBT

CBT

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Posted (edited)

http://www.ebay.com/csc/i.html?_sacat=0&_from=R40&_nkw=saga+9.8+-pgx+-+-bedlam+-2nd+-3rd+-4th+-5th&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&rt=nc

 

a bunch of yellows of regular issues have flamed out bad lately, i think that is what is turning sentiment. As with all things speculation, comics or otherwise, perception is all that matters.

 

 

 

nowhere men, the yellows are still holding a perceived "extra" value(likely cause supply of yellow isnt as rampantly high as saga), but the blues are hurting.

 

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_odkw=nowhere+men+9.8+-pgx++-bedlam+-2nd+-3rd+-4th+-5th+-ss+-signed&LH_Sold=1&_osacat=0&_from=R40&LH_Complete=1&_trksid=p2045573.m570.l1313.TR0.TRC0&_nkw=nowhere+men+9.8+-pgx++-bedlam+-2nd+-3rd+-4th+-5th+-ss+-signed+-9.6&_sacat=0

 

 

Saga is hold for me, NWM I am close to saying buy regular 1st prints. If these are the grandfather and father of the EoW RRP, it's worth watching the cycles to see. Maybe people will realize you dont HAVE to buy that RRP for $200+ the day it comes out.....

Edited by CBT
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CBT

CBT

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you guys REALLY think the Saga RRP is going to dip to $100 raw?

 

i think they were using it as an example, I don't think it will go that low. It depends how rough the market as a whole gets.

 

I dont see 9.8 SS ever going below $750/$800, cause the people with the supply, know what they are doing. I would peg the rest of the types, 9.8 blue, raw, etc, to that value.

 

I think Saga is over sold as well. I stick to the 35/50/75/100 rule for 9.8 blue slabbed books.

 

$35 is the opening price for a slabbed book from the big boys, the guys that slab by the hundred.

 

$50 is about what joe shmoe would have to pay to slab a single book, get it pressed, and double shipped. (Canada eh?)

 

$75 is the sweet spot for hot books, that aren't key, or number 1. SS books deserve maybe a $15 premium in this category, so figure $90 bucks for an SS equivalent.

 

$100 is what speculator driven #1 issues strive for. Once a book is hitting $100 or more, people should be slabbing there own books and selling.

 

Above $100 is the realm of long term speculation. If you are paying over $100, it should be because the book is hard to get and other people are trying to outbid you, OR, you believe it will catch some form of WD style tv/movie hype, and you are waiting to sell later.

 

There aren't many moderns with $150-$200 blue 9.8s. When the RRP SS 9.8 was $1K, the 9.8 blue was about $800, and the reg #1 blue was $200. I think the 1st print reg #1 should always be the price leader, it lead the rise, and leads the decline. If it is $150, down 25%, then the other two should/will fall about the same.

 

That gives you $600 for blue 9.8, $750 SS 9.8 on the RRP. If the prices fall below that, but the regular #1 9.8 blue doesnt decline past $150, I would say the RRP is oversold and buy.

 

If the RAW RRPs were in the $400ish range, then I would peg them to fall to around $300. I wouldn't see a high grade RRP selling for less than $300, and if it looks like a 9.8 candidate, I would expect it to be much closer to the $400 mark.

 

Edit:

-------

Full disclosure, i still have two full runs i still plan to slab to 9.8, and sell when saga catches its next push up. plus a bunch of 9.4/96s i will sell then too. which is why i said Saga is a hold for me.

 

Edit 2:

----------

all this saga talk, is because it's what people are using to justify EoW with, and its good to see what its done, and to talk about where its going. EoW RRP should always be bound by Saga if that's what people are hoping it will become.

Edited by CBT
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Erndog

Erndog

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you guys REALLY think the Saga RRP is going to dip to $100 raw?

 

i think they were using it as an example, I don't think it will go that low. It depends how rough the market as a whole gets.

 

I dont see 9.8 SS ever going below $750/$800, cause the people with the supply, know what they are doing. I would peg the rest of the types, 9.8 blue, raw, etc, to that value.

 

I think Saga is over sold as well. I stick to the 35/50/75/100 rule for 9.8 blue slabbed books.

 

$35 is the opening price for a slabbed book from the big boys, the guys that slab by the hundred.

 

$50 is about what joe shmoe would have to pay to slab a single book, get it pressed, and double shipped. (Canada eh?)

 

$75 is the sweet spot for hot books, that aren't key, or number 1. SS books deserve maybe a $15 premium in this category, so figure $90 bucks for an SS equivalent.

 

$100 is what speculator driven #1 issues strive for. Once a book is hitting $100 or more, people should be slabbing there own books and selling.

 

Above $100 is the realm of long term speculation. If you are paying over $100, it should be because the book is hard to get and other people are trying to outbid you, OR, you believe it will catch some form of WD style tv/movie hype, and you are waiting to sell later.

 

There aren't many moderns with $150-$200 blue 9.8s. When the RRP SS 9.8 was $1K, the 9.8 blue was about $800, and the reg #1 blue was $200. I think the 1st print reg #1 should always be the price leader, it lead the rise, and leads the decline. If it is $150, down 25%, then the other two should/will fall about the same.

 

That gives you $600 for blue 9.8, $750 SS 9.8 on the RRP. If the prices fall below that, but the regular #1 9.8 blue doesnt decline past $150, I would say the RRP is oversold and buy.

 

If the RAW RRPs were in the $400ish range, then I would peg them to fall to around $300. I wouldn't see a high grade RRP selling for less than $300, and if it looks like a 9.8 candidate, I would expect it to be much closer to the $400 mark.

 

 

 

Now explain all that using Vennm diagrams :preach:

Edited by Erndog
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the authority

the authority

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Posted

Now explain all that using Vennm diagrams :preach:

 

wish=command lol

 

lol-venn.png

 

(worship)CBT

(worship)CBT

(worship)CBT

(worship)CBT

(worship)CBT

 

I believe the chart reflects reality. Very nice.

 

On a different note, does anyone have a rough estimate of how close East of West 1 is to being sold out at Midtown, Dynamic Forces, and the other big internet retailers ? They made a 2nd print and it appears most of those are being sold to the big internet retailers also.

 

I also wonder if the majority of you think its good or a bad thing that there are still a lot of these out there. I personally would buy more if not for the limits of 1 or 2 comics per buyer.

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CBT

CBT

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i still would like to know who the guy is on the promotional poster.

 

a much better drawing of death imo, like the cover of 1. He should be much more John Marsden, much less ozzy ozbourne.

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