Falling prices or a mistake

[Vision75]

I hadn't checked out Nostomania's top 100 most valuable list in a while: http://www.nostomania.com/servlets/com.nostomania.CatPage?name=Top100ComicsMain

 

To my surprise, the 3-month and 1-year gain columns were awash with red revealing how much value comics have lost. I've been buying keys regularly over the last year and keeping up with GPA. Nostomania's numbers just don't jibe with my sense of the market.

 

What do you think?

[slym2none]

 

 

 

-slymthahater

[Aces]

Well there was the huge sell off in the last year and so many nice high grade comics came to market all at once. There's only so much money to go around so some of them went for bargain prices bringing down some averages.

 

[kimik]

Looking at the list, some of the GA prices look low compared to what an actual universal 9.4 would fetch. For example, I can't see a Supes #1 in universal 9.4 selling for that low. On the flip side, I wonder if MF #52 or Adventure #40 would hit that high.

[RockMyAmadeus]

There's only so much money to go around

 

[Green]

What do you think?

 

That they pull numbers out of their .

[Maccai3]

There's only so much money to go around

 

 

tell that to greggy

[asteroid-comix]

After re-reading the data, they are likely right. If you bought one of these books, you would likely realize a loss in the first twelve months of selling, given the cost to sell the book. You would have to hold on to it for a few years to see a profit. I'm not sure that's what they are saying, but the numbers are probably closer to being right when looking at it this way.

 

You pay FMV for a high grade Action #1 at auction and then try to sell three months or 12 months later, you're likely to be in the hole.

[zosocane]

The information is completely wrong on at least one book. They are listing 9.4 prices, right? So they list a JIM83 in 9.4 at $40K. On GPA, a 9.4 sold last month at auction for $171K.

[Glynn Sr]

Does the price listed include the Auctions house %'s

[miraclemet]

The information is completely wrong on at least one book. They are listing 9.4 prices, right? So they list a JIM83 in 9.4 at $40K. On GPA, a 9.4 sold last month at auction for $171K.

 

Yeah that has to be a mistake.

 

Even if they didnt have the numbers on the 9.4 that sold, data about the 9.2 and 9.0 would show that $40k was excessively low...

[miraclemet]

Also considering there's no Showcase #22 in 9.4 how is the price on it falling since there is ZERO market data to support its rise or fall? The last time a 9.0 came on the market it traded for $59k, which is higher than the estimated $53,600 "value" of a 9.4

 

A 9.4 on the market, considering there is only even a sole 9.2 would certainly fetch $75k even in a soft market.

[The-Collector]

Looking at the list, some of the GA prices look low compared to what an actual universal 9.4 would fetch. For example, I can't see a Supes #1 in universal 9.4 selling for that low. On the flip side, I wonder if MF #52 or Adventure #40 would hit that high.

 

The price they have listed for the supes one is pure fantasy. I would have expected a NM supes 1 to fetch ~$2 million.

[Vision75]

Thanks for the comments thus far. I think I understand the premise of their (Nostomania's) methodology. To make a fair comparison about value they had to decide on a particular grade at which to compare. They chose 9.4. The problem, of course, is that for many of the books on this list very few (and sometimes no) books exist in this grade. Further, far fewer sell. So, as opposed to a large cap stock that sells millions of shares a day, it's really difficult to gauge how a price has changed month to month or even year to year. So, they must have to use some computational voodoo to make these extrapolations. What else are they going to do?

 

 

Some of the numbers are just so far off though that I can't buy it. Earlier kimik gave the example of their estimated sup 1 value (~500k) as being far to low. I agree but it's hard to know b/c there's no sales data at that grade and perhaps no comic at all. A more tangible example may be JIM 83. Nostomania lists a JIM 83 (9.4) at $40k. According to GPA, recent sales in that grade are closer to 200k. Even a 9.2 sells for near six figures. If these estimates are so far off - a magnitude of at least 4-fold - why should I believe the oh-so-precise sounding three month decline of "17.9%."

 

I'm not against Nostomania. In fact, I really appreciate what they are trying to do. As a newer collector it's cool to get a ballpark on 100 very valuable comics. No doubt, what they are trying to do is really difficult. For some comics, being off 10s of percent would be permissible. Really, it's just speculation. That said, the estimates should NOT be off by multiples.

 

Thanks.

[The-Collector]

Thanks for the comments thus far. I think I understand the premise of their (Nostomania's) methodology. To make a fair comparison about value they had to decide on a particular grade at which to compare. They chose 9.4. The problem, of course, is that for many of the books on this list very few (and sometimes no) books exist in this grade. Further, far fewer sell. So, as opposed to a large cap stock that sells millions of shares a day, it's really difficult to gauge how a price has changed month to month or even year to year. So, they must have to use some computational voodoo to make these extrapolations. What else are they going to do?

 

 

Some of the numbers are just so far off though that I can't buy it. Earlier kimik gave the example of their estimated sup 1 value (~500k) as being far to low. I agree but it's hard to know b/c there's no sales data at that grade and perhaps no comic at all. A more tangible example may be JIM 83. Nostomania lists a JIM 83 (9.4) at $40k. According to GPA, recent sales in that grade are closer to 200k. Even a 9.2 sells for near six figures. If these estimates are so far off - a magnitude of at least 4-fold - why should I believe the oh-so-precise sounding three month decline of "17.9%."

 

I'm not against Nostomania. In fact, I really appreciate what they are trying to do. As a newer collector it's cool to get a ballpark on 100 very valuable comics. No doubt, what they are trying to do is really difficult. For some comics, being off 10s of percent would be permissible. Really, it's just speculation. That said, the estimates should NOT be off by multiples.

 

Thanks.

 

Out by several orders of magnitude but they give values with 3 significant figures.

[miraclemet]

When trying to compose a list with such elite books, many of which are uber-rare (or non-existent) on the census, I would think aiming a little lowere (say in the FV/VF range would decrease the volatility of the pricing you are trying to gauge.

[october]

Nostomania

 

[seanfingh]

Nostomania

 

 

I was shocked when I discovered the Nostomania was not Greek for "making mess up."

[october]

Nostomania

 

 

I was shocked when I discovered the Nostomania was not Greek for "making mess up."

 

I thought it was Hebrew for "a nonexistent Detective 1 in 9.4 lost exactly 15.2% of its value this year".

 

How can they publish this nonsense with a straight face? Do you know how many data points they have in 9.4 on their top 20 for the past year? Zero. Not one. Absolutely no market data whatsoever to back up those numbers.

 

Nice to know their estimates are good to the first decimal point though.

[Point Five]

Yeah, this is goofy.