High grade non-keys losing value?

[ciorac]

No doubt the Disney characters and marketed heavily and will be around for a long time, that doesn't mean high end Ducks books will be bought by future generations. What are the demographics of current high-end Duck book owners? When they sell who will buy them?

 

I don't think many Gen X and Gen Y buyers will and this is unlikely to change because of Ipad apps and cartoons watched by toddlers.

 

The issue is changing times, interests and related purchasing habits not that the characters will be totally obscure or irrelevant.

 

 

Probably the safest statement is that paying big money for any collectible is rolling the dice. Anyone using collectibles as a big part of an investment portfolio he will rely on for his kids' college tuition or his retirement is essentially playing the lottery.

 

+1

 

But the problem is that many people are doing just that. Just by the PM's and emails I receive, I can tell you that there are people on this forum (and otherwise) that have and are doing just this. That is what is scary about the antiques and collectibles market in this day in age. Mind you, these are not dealers; these are people who justify their addiction to spending and collecting by calling it 'investing.'

 

 

So what is a "safe bet" to you Mint??

 

Toys? Nope

Original Art? Nope

Real Estate? HELL nope

Stocks? Puhleeze, nope

Antiques? Not a chance, nope

 

So what, in your learned opinion is the safest bet to "invest" in other than comics that add dividends both to your balance sheet and the enjoyment of your life?

[mrmyst]

[Flex Mentallo]

No doubt the Disney characters and marketed heavily and will be around for a long time, that doesn't mean high end Ducks books will be bought by future generations. What are the demographics of current high-end Duck book owners? When they sell who will buy them?

 

I don't think many Gen X and Gen Y buyers will and this is unlikely to change because of Ipad apps and cartoons watched by toddlers.

 

The issue is changing times, interests and related purchasing habits not that the characters will be totally obscure or irrelevant.

 

 

Probably the safest statement is that paying big money for any collectible is rolling the dice. Anyone using collectibles as a big part of an investment portfolio he will rely on for his kids' college tuition or his retirement is essentially playing the lottery.

 

+1

 

But the problem is that many people are doing just that. Just by the PM's and emails I receive, I can tell you that there are people on this forum (and otherwise) that have and are doing just this. That is what is scary about the antiques and collectibles market in this day in age. Mind you, these are not dealers; these are people who justify their addiction to spending and collecting by calling it 'investing.'

 

 

So what is a "safe bet" to you Mint??

 

Toys? Nope

Original Art? Nope

Real Estate? HELL nope

Stocks? Puhleeze, nope

Antiques? Not a chance, nope

 

So what, in your learned opinion is the safest bet to "invest" in other than comics that add dividends both to your balance sheet and the enjoyment of your life?

 

There is no safe bet for investment except enjoying life.

[Bookery]

I'm saying I don't have a crystal ball...

 

Seriously!? Are you a luddite or something--?

 

[Bookery]

There is no safe bet for investment except enjoying life.

 

I made a fortune on sourpuss futures back in the 90s. Been living off it ever since...

 

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

Ok, so your saying High grade non-keys are not losing value?

Nope. I'm saying I don't have a crystal ball, I don't really care one way or the other whether high grade non-key golden age comics go up or down, and I really think folks should stop and consider the silliness in making a post related to a specific comic stating that that comic is in some way a loser. You hurt my comic's feelings and now it is all sad and humiliated.

Tell your comic book that I am sorry, and it wasn`t my intent.

[ComicConnoisseur]

I'm saying I don't have a crystal ball...

 

Seriously!? Are you a luddite or something--?

That word seems to keep coming up a lot lately in this forum.

 

[jimbo_707]

Ok, so your saying High grade non-keys are not losing value?

Nope. I'm saying I don't have a crystal ball, I don't really care one way or the other whether high grade non-key golden age comics go up or down, and I really think folks should stop and consider the silliness in making a post related to a specific comic stating that that comic is in some way a loser. You hurt my comic's feelings and now it is all sad and humiliated.

 

I for one think it's a very cool book and would buy it even if it's likely to go down in value. I think all niche books are likely to see declines over the next 20 years, but I want to have them to enjoy now, not in 2033, so I try to look at my purchases the way I would look at spending money on travel or dining out. Those things don't pay off in dollars but do pay off in quality of life.

[Bookery]

Ok, so your saying High grade non-keys are not losing value?

Nope. I'm saying I don't have a crystal ball, I don't really care one way or the other whether high grade non-key golden age comics go up or down, and I really think folks should stop and consider the silliness in making a post related to a specific comic stating that that comic is in some way a loser. You hurt my comic's feelings and now it is all sad and humiliated.

 

I for one think it's a very cool book and would buy it even if it's likely to go down in value. I think all niche books are likely to see declines over the next 20 years, but I want to have them to enjoy now, not in 2033, so I try to look at my purchases the way I would look at spending money on travel or dining out. Those things don't pay off in dollars but do pay off in quality of life.

 

(thumbs u

 

I mentioned I had 300 nice golden-age books awhile ago (nothing super-key) and was asked by many customers what were my favorites. It always surprises them when I pass over the Batmans and Green Lanterns and Wonder Womans in favor of something obscure. Firstly, I've had most of the major super-hero books over time, so a second or fifth copy isn't personally exciting, even if it is more financially lucrative. In this last group, I think my favorites were a Wings issue and a Buzzy #7 because they were simply incredible copies... as raws I priced them as 9.2s, but I suspect the Buzzy would have gotten a 9.6 from CGC. But beyond grade, I liked an issue of Scream Comics in the group most, simply because I'd never had one before.

 

I love Space Western (I mistakenly typed it as "Space Cowboy" earlier...). If I collected, these are the kinds of things I would collect. Would they pay off if I paid retail for them? Probably not, other than natural adjustments for inflation, perhaps. But it doesn't matter.

[Mmehdy]

Ok, so your saying High grade non-keys are not losing value?

Nope. I'm saying I don't have a crystal ball, I don't really care one way or the other whether high grade non-key golden age comics go up or down, and I really think folks should stop and consider the silliness in making a post related to a specific comic stating that that comic is in some way a loser. You hurt my comic's feelings and now it is all sad and humiliated.

 

I for one think it's a very cool book and would buy it even if it's likely to go down in value. I think all niche books are likely to see declines over the next 20 years, but I want to have them to enjoy now, not in 2033, so I try to look at my purchases the way I would look at spending money on travel or dining out. Those things don't pay off in dollars but do pay off in quality of life.

 

Quality of life for the comic book collector has gone downhill ever since the CGC put the books inside the plastic capsules. You cannot read, touch it, smell, and feel it. How is that a improvement of quality of life as true comic book collector. Gone are the days when you can find new undiscovered collections, rather than hoping somebody bought their comics 10 years ago and are not aware of the market conditions which have changed.

 

Isolating the collector from the experience of holding a GA comic book in his hand is a true disconnect in the relationship between collector and book.

Still dollars matter when you buy something you KNOW is gonna be worth less. Prices need to adjust downward on non key material at least 50%.

 

I love comic book collecting, I think with sanity in the comic book world, it will be a much better place, non-keys need to adjust in price to reflect true demand and value.

[mintcollector]

No doubt the Disney characters and marketed heavily and will be around for a long time, that doesn't mean high end Ducks books will be bought by future generations. What are the demographics of current high-end Duck book owners? When they sell who will buy them?

 

I don't think many Gen X and Gen Y buyers will and this is unlikely to change because of Ipad apps and cartoons watched by toddlers.

 

The issue is changing times, interests and related purchasing habits not that the characters will be totally obscure or irrelevant.

 

 

Probably the safest statement is that paying big money for any collectible is rolling the dice. Anyone using collectibles as a big part of an investment portfolio he will rely on for his kids' college tuition or his retirement is essentially playing the lottery.

 

+1

 

But the problem is that many people are doing just that. Just by the PM's and emails I receive, I can tell you that there are people on this forum (and otherwise) that have and are doing just this. That is what is scary about the antiques and collectibles market in this day in age. Mind you, these are not dealers; these are people who justify their addiction to spending and collecting by calling it 'investing.'

 

 

So what is a "safe bet" to you Mint??

 

Toys? Nope

Original Art? Nope

Real Estate? HELL nope

Stocks? Puhleeze, nope

Antiques? Not a chance, nope

 

So what, in your learned opinion is the safest bet to "invest" in other than comics that add dividends both to your balance sheet and the enjoyment of your life?

 

 

I believe Bookery answered your questions perfectly. I also support most of his responses.

 

To add to that however, and to answer your question directly:

 

Knowledge in both business and finance, along with the fundamentals as to HOW to apply these concepts to the items in question is most important. Why it is true some things are better to invest in than others; it is also true that some investors are better than others at analyzing these things. Clinging to ideologies related to past performance is a recipe for disaster. It was this same concept that caused countless individuals to adopt the mantra that 'real estate only goes up in value' and that 'gold is the only safe investment.' I feel very sorry for the individuals who adopted such ideas.

 

 

My point is you can't make a list like this (see below):

 

'Toys?

Original Art?

Real Estate?

Stocks?

Antiques?'

 

and ask me to state whether each is a good investment, because it depends on the opportunity and the investor. So please don't put words in my mouth. I actually think equities (i.e. stocks) are a great long term investment even for the uninitiated. Instead of investing in comic books; try an index fund instead.

 

As I have said in previous posts, I do not think that most of the current crop of collectibles will have much of a future twenty years from now. Way too many were made and hoarded; especially in the modern collecting field. The production run of most items today is in the tens of millions. I buy what I like and I bring almost twenty years of experience to the table as well; dealing in both antiques and collectibles and working my way up the ranks. I am now almost solely involved in high end antiques and collectibles in near mint to mint condition. I also do work a career in the corporate world as well. Few question my ideologies and most that do are under the age of 35. They have yet to see any major downturns in the industry (it should be noted that I myself am only in my mid-thirties).

 

I have no problem sharing my knowledge with anyone as there are a lot of opportunities in these markets if you know where to look. As one my favorite cartoon series once pointed out; 'knowing is half the battle'. Unfortunately the next part after knowing comes 'action.' This is where most individuals fail to succeed at. Most get their information (especially in the antiques and collectibles market) from biased sources or television collecting shows and then wonder why they fail in practice. I have absolutely no reason to mislead anyone as I stand to gain nothing by stating that some collectibles are a 'bad long term investment.'

 

 

[skypinkblu]

I think after reading this thread, I need to go hug some of my naked non key comics...

 

and see if the nearby comic therapist has any emergency appointments open for them.

 

 

 

[ciorac]

There is no safe bet for investment except enjoying life.

 

I made a fortune on sourpuss futures back in the 90s. Been living off it ever since...

 

 

[ciorac]

No doubt the Disney characters and marketed heavily and will be around for a long time, that doesn't mean high end Ducks books will be bought by future generations. What are the demographics of current high-end Duck book owners? When they sell who will buy them?

 

I don't think many Gen X and Gen Y buyers will and this is unlikely to change because of Ipad apps and cartoons watched by toddlers.

 

The issue is changing times, interests and related purchasing habits not that the characters will be totally obscure or irrelevant.

 

 

Probably the safest statement is that paying big money for any collectible is rolling the dice. Anyone using collectibles as a big part of an investment portfolio he will rely on for his kids' college tuition or his retirement is essentially playing the lottery.

 

+1

 

But the problem is that many people are doing just that. Just by the PM's and emails I receive, I can tell you that there are people on this forum (and otherwise) that have and are doing just this. That is what is scary about the antiques and collectibles market in this day in age. Mind you, these are not dealers; these are people who justify their addiction to spending and collecting by calling it 'investing.'

 

 

So what is a "safe bet" to you Mint??

 

Toys? Nope

Original Art? Nope

Real Estate? HELL nope

Stocks? Puhleeze, nope

Antiques? Not a chance, nope

 

So what, in your learned opinion is the safest bet to "invest" in other than comics that add dividends both to your balance sheet and the enjoyment of your life?

 

 

I believe Bookery answered your questions perfectly. I also support most of his responses.

 

To add to that however, and to answer your question directly:

 

Knowledge in both business and finance, along with the fundamentals as to HOW to apply these concepts to the items in question is most important. Why it is true some things are better to invest in than others; it is also true that some investors are better than others at analyzing these things. Clinging to ideologies related to past performance is a recipe for disaster. It was this same concept that caused countless individuals to adopt the mantra that 'real estate only goes up in value' and that 'gold is the only safe investment.' I feel very sorry for the individuals who adopted such ideas.

 

 

My point is you can't make a list like this (see below):

 

'Toys?

Original Art?

Real Estate?

Stocks?

Antiques?'

 

and ask me to state whether each is a good investment, because it depends on the opportunity and the investor. So please don't put words in my mouth. I actually think equities (i.e. stocks) are a great long term investment even for the uninitiated. Instead of investing in comic books; try an index fund instead.

 

 

 

Nothing says fun like a good index fund investment

 

20 years from now I may or may not be around to give a hoot what my comics are worth. And I assure you, they aren't the basis of how I expect to finance my delcining years. But thanks for the concern. (thumbs u

[mintcollector]

Glad I could help!

 

(thumbs u

 

 

[mrmyst]

Over 35 years I've always collected and bought 'what I liked.' In terms of the monetary investment I'm happy to say that I'm way 'ahead', but in terms of the thousands of hours of enjoyment via the fellowship of other collectors, I could never put a price on that...it's priceless!

[Electron]

 

Quality of life for the comic book collector has gone downhill ever since the CGC put the books inside the plastic capsules. You cannot read, touch it, smell, and feel it. How is that a improvement of quality of life as true comic book collector. Gone are the days when you can find new undiscovered collections, rather than hoping somebody bought their comics 10 years ago and are not aware of the market conditions which have changed.

 

Isolating the collector from the experience of holding a GA comic book in his hand is a true disconnect in the relationship between collector and book.

Still dollars matter when you buy something you KNOW is gonna be worth less. Prices need to adjust downward on non key material at least 50%.

 

I love comic book collecting, I think with sanity in the comic book world, it will be a much better place, non-keys need to adjust in price to reflect true demand and value.

 

If only there was some way for a true comic book collector to open a CGC slab...think of how their quality of life would improve!

[ciorac]

 

Quality of life for the comic book collector has gone downhill ever since the CGC put the books inside the plastic capsules. You cannot read, touch it, smell, and feel it. How is that a improvement of quality of life as true comic book collector. Gone are the days when you can find new undiscovered collections, rather than hoping somebody bought their comics 10 years ago and are not aware of the market conditions which have changed.

 

Isolating the collector from the experience of holding a GA comic book in his hand is a true disconnect in the relationship between collector and book.

Still dollars matter when you buy something you KNOW is gonna be worth less. Prices need to adjust downward on non key material at least 50%.

 

I love comic book collecting, I think with sanity in the comic book world, it will be a much better place, non-keys need to adjust in price to reflect true demand and value.

 

If only there was some way for a true comic book collector to open a CGC slab...think of how their quality of life would improve!

 

 

gosh knows we've cracked out our fair share

[Bookery]

So what, in your learned opinion is the safest bet to "invest" in other than comics that add dividends both to your balance sheet and the enjoyment of your life?

 

I know this question wasn't addressed to me, but if you don't mind, I'll try to put forth some serious thoughts on it, all snarkiness aside (and to be honest, ciorac, aside from being a bit annoyed at the "delusional" thing, I'm not upset in this debate, with you or anyone else... I sometimes get a bit sarcastic as it entertains me a little, which, I know, is a bad habit. But, not having personally met most members, I generally don't remember over time who I've agreed with or disagreed with anyway, so have no idea if this is the first time we've "disagreed", or an ongoing process, so onward...)

 

Short term (meaning 5-10 years) i really have a tough time making any logical assumptions about the marketplace. That's why, whether I'm being sour or not, and maybe I am, I tend to project out 20 or more years because I believe over long periods of time, there are definite patterns in the history of what is popular and collected. This can be useful, perhaps, if you are determing what to set back for your children and grandchildren, but not much use to the person who is directly making the inquiry.

 

With stocks and precious metals there are hundreds of years of patterns and fluctuations to observe, though analyzing them correctly is, of course, the difference between the average person and the mega-millionaires.

 

Most "collectibles", (at least popular ones with ample things to be collected, say, as opposed to Ming vases)... the problem is that these things generally stay culturally relavent for only 2-3 generations. A few last even longer (Sherlock Holmes), and many last much shorter (Beanie Babies).

 

Action #1 keeps getting brought up, but unless one is very wealthy, is totally meaningless in terms of comics investing overall. As long as there are only 150 copies available, and there are at least 200-300 millionaires who want one, the price will keep going up. If someday there are only 50 rich folks who care about it... the price will fall dramatically.

 

There are lots of things short term (under 20 years) that defy predictability. A few years back (maybe 8 or 9?, I'm not sure), I was tracking the progress of an Action #1 that surfaced here in Dayton, but was sold to an out-of-state dealer. Now, this dealer was known for often outrageously high prices on many things. But this Action #1 was graded, if I recall, 3.0 by CGC, and the dealer put it on his website at straight guide value of $50,000. I figured an Action #1, slabbed, and offered at straight guide was a quick sell. But it languished on that site for nearly a year before finally, I presume, selling.

 

Then just a scant few years later, Action #1s, in all grades, are skyrocketing way beyond the normal course for an established and seasoned collectible. Who knew?

 

When the Christopher Reeve Superman movies came out, they had no discernable effect on the value of Superman comic books, that I remember, despite the movies' huge popularity. When Keaton's Batman premiered, there was an uptick in Joker issues, but not astronomical. Movies had some impact on comic values, but not an extraordinary amount.

 

Now, even a rumor of a character appearance can send prices on an issue up ten-fold. Why? I don't have an answer, other than speculators seem to be having a much greater influence on the market today than actual collectors.

 

Anything you get for a bargain price can, of course, be a good investment... especially if that investment can be a quick turn. In the 70s, I have no doubt collectors would have claimed Disney comics will be hot forever, just as superhero collectors say now.

 

There are some things you can count on, however...

 

For one thing, once a thing ceases to be produced (especially in pop culture), its long-term collectibility is likely doomed. As long as something is in the public eye, people will seek out the early and rare examples of that something. But if it ceases to be manufactured, such as dime novels, pulps, BLBs... its allure diminishes over time as later generations are unfamiliar with it.

 

It makes no difference if movies about super-heroes continue to be made or not... that's not what will drive comics collectability as a whole. It makes a difference if monthly comic books continue to be produced. If Marvel or DC go all digital some distant day, a generation or two later will have little connection to physical comics. Super heroes will be only a movie genre to them, not a paper collectible.

If comics continue to be produced for the next 10 or 20 years, back-issues and collectibles should continue to be fairly healthy, with character and genre fluctuations within, of course.

 

Truism #2: nothing totally ceases to be collectible... it just loses mass appeal and easy liquidity. The firsts of anything tend to be collected by someone... a Gutenberg, the first colonial bible, the first detective story, the first Remington rifle, the first Playboy magazine (even as most other issues are becoming near worthless). But once an item ceases to be in the public eye, all but the rarest or most singular examples will inevitably fade in desire and value. How many of you collect buggy whips? Certainly somebody somewhere does... but is it going to be liquid or sought after when you're ready to sell?

 

Pop culture collectibles, beyond the short-term, I don't think can ever be an especially wise investment... the public is too fickle. It's not an investment, it's a lottery ticket. That Action #1 that sold for 1.5 mil. may go for 2 mil., next time, or 1 mil. One's a great investment, one's a huge loss. That's truism #3... when dealing in very valuable items, that are likely only to have a few bidders, any collectible is subject to the whims and fancies of those bidders on any given day, regardless of the trends at large. Most people send major collectibles to auction, and auctions are always unpredictable. If Jack and Jill are the only two people on the planet willing to set a record price for an item (and that's what collectibles investing is... the belief that something will forever keep setting record prices for that item), and Jack gets in a car accident and doesn't make it to the auction... well, tough beans for the seller that day.

 

So anyway... sorry about the mini-series treatment here.

It's so trite I hate to say it... but all you can do is buy what you enjoy, and the luck with "investing" will fall where it may.

 

 

 

 

 

[Sqeggs]

I think after reading this thread, I need to go hug some of my naked non key comics...

 

and see if the nearby comic therapist has any emergency appointments open for them.

 

 

 

 

Slab 'em! They'll only get in trouble if you let them run free!