High grade non-keys losing value?

[rjpb]

It used to be a truism of comic collecting that buying high grade was a better investment than low to mid grade, as the gap between GD and NM in the guide seemed ever widening. Then CGC came along and the gap blew up immensely, which Overstreet began to reflect when it changed it's grades to numeric ones, added some over 6.0 and capped them at 9.2, and the gap between 2.0 and 9.2 became something like 20 fold. The result in the early to mid 90s was that a lot of books, not just keys and classic covers, started hitting nose bleed prices in 8.0 and above.

 

Just based on researching random comics in the Heritage archives that I'm interested in, it seems that many high grade books have sold in the last couple for far less than they did 5-10 years ago, even while low to mid grade copies have risen in value. There are exceptions of course, like classic cover PCH and bigger keys, but I'm thinking of more or less random Timely or DC from the 40s. Still, I haven't done a thorough search, and maybe I'm just noticing a few outliers, and admittedly these books are not in my purchasing wheelhouse, but am I wrong in this observation?

[jimjum12]

Keys and Icon covers for the last 10 years. That trend is spilling over into SA now too. If it costs over 300 bucks and it isn't key or icon..... you have 2 choices.... lose money at resale or be buried with it..... GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

P.S. That doesn't mean it isn't cool as heck

[rjpb]

Keys and Icon covers for the last 10 years. That trend is spilling over into SA now too. If it costs over 300 bucks and it isn't key or icon..... you have 2 choices.... lose money at resale or be buried with it..... GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

P.S. That doesn't mean it isn't cool as heck

 

I've noticed with silver age that as high grade keys have gotten out of reach for most collectors, and high grade runs a fantasy, that a lot of the action has been with lesser "keys", especially if there is any movie talk about the character. I wouldn't be surprised to find classic /iconic covers following the golden age path and show a stronger demand in the future, with the caveat that unlike much GA, such books will always be available in quantity in the lower grades, but I can see collectors who just want a few high grade books gravitating towards these instead of just super-expensive keys. It's long been happening with classic battle covers.

[VintageComics]

Keys and Icon covers for the last 10 years. That trend is spilling over into SA now too. If it costs over 300 bucks and it isn't key or icon..... you have 2 choices.... lose money at resale or be buried with it..... GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

P.S. That doesn't mean it isn't cool as heck

 

I've noticed with silver age that as high grade keys have gotten out of reach for most collectors, and high grade runs a fantasy, that a lot of the action has been with lesser "keys", especially if there is any movie talk about the character. I wouldn't be surprised to find classic /iconic covers following the golden age path and show a stronger demand in the future, with the caveat that unlike much GA, such books will always be available in quantity in the lower grades, but I can see collectors who just want a few high grade books gravitating towards these instead of just super-expensive keys. It's long been happening with classic battle covers.

 

Much of it is cyclical.

 

Even keys plateau in price at times and then begin to take off again.

[Aman619]

Yeah. After the ten year run up due to slabbing and grading by the numbers, I'm not surprised to see prices soften. The supply not too is more verifiable, no longer mythical. We all used to see high grade books and believe they were always scarcer Han they were because we rarely saw them at cons etc. but with CGC counting them now, they feel much more plentiful. So the scarcity factor / myth has been broken.

 

The real question shouldn't be why have prices have now slowed their increases, and often retreated at this point, but, will demand going forward push prices higher in the future?

 

Or have our funny books reached full maturity?

 

That's the 100K question nobody can answer definitively.

[sandy reiser]

that's depressing. does this count for high grade non keys/non iconic covers that have pedigrees as well-like some random mile high or san francisico that isn't a key or iconic cover will lose value?

yikes!

[jimbo_707]

I expect to see everything spiral to zero in the next 50 years: I just don't think people in the 2nd half of the 21st century will be particularly interested in 20th-century pop-culture ephemera. I expect prices on mega-keys to remain stable over the next decade, though, because conspicuous consumption will keep prices elevated on those books.

 

Incidentally, when I was younger, almost everyone I knew collected something--comic books, coins, stamps, baseball cards, bottle caps, whatever. I now work as a teacher, and I don't see any of my students collecting anything. It's as if the ritual of collecting just didn't get passed along to generation Y2K, probably because most of them are living virtual lives online.

[comicjack]

I can see that virtual lives indeed

[Duffman_Comics]

I'll throw my 10c worth in here.

 

As has been said, there just aren't many collectors left, and those ranks are thinning. Almost everyone is a collector/dealer/flipper.

 

There's nothing wrong with that, but people should be honest when moaning about a collapse in prices realised.

 

Collectors don't really care. They are not interested in selling - any downward trend in prices is seen as an opportunity to fill those runs or start another one.

 

Sure, I'd rather not see values crater - but as joe_collector once offered, he saw money spent on comics as money gone. Not an investment, but rather the price paid to enjoy an ephemeral piece of pop culture for a while.

 

Well, I'm paraphrasing/remembering as best I can but the sentiment is there.

 

That's an extremely pessimistic attitude to have - but a lot healthier than believing a whole lot of mid-grade bronze age books are going to fund one's retirement.

 

Me? I'm a collector of lots of books, some good, some rubbish, but I am under no illusion as to their future worth.

 

A collapse in prices? I'd welcome it.

[cheetah]

The majority of high-grade non-keys are dropping quickly but there are also titles and genres that seem to get a strong resurgence from the introduction of just a couple of new collectors. When the available stock of high-grade issues numbers less than 5, it doesn't take much to maintain or increase price.

[markseifert]

I just don't think people in the 2nd half of the 21st century will be particularly interested in 20th-century pop-culture ephemera.

 

That's a really good question. On the one hand, Sherlock Holmes -- now 125 years old -- is still popular and as far as I can tell has a pretty dedicated core of collectors. His first app in Beeton's Christmas Annual 1887 is very rare and very expensive.

 

On the other hand, there's a whole class of pop culture stuff from roughly the same period that is (nearly) forgotten. Frank Reade, also from the late 1800s, is one thing that springs to mind there -- the subject of a series of extremely popular dime novels then, and ought to be popular now given the ongoing popularity of Steampunk, but is little-remembered.

 

Of course, material that early is harder to collect than even Platimum era comics, so there's that. We're actually doing a reasonable job of preserving our comics, so at least there will be something for people to collect in 50 years.

 

 

[jimjum12]

The majority of high-grade non-keys are dropping quickly but there are also titles and genres that seem to get a strong resurgence from the introduction of just a couple of new collectors. When the available stock of high-grade issues numbers less than 5, it doesn't take much to maintain or increase price.

 

...... particularly if quality material. The Planet run, for example, lists no classic covers in OSPG...... but one could argue that may be because they ALL are.With such emphasis on investment these days the waters are definitely muddied. There are still many collectors out there, as I seem to see a resurgence in the Fine (affordable) range quietly taking place. With wages fairly stagnant and the prices of staples like food, gas, and medical spiraling, the collectibles pool almost has to shrink for the average Joe..... it's just simple economics. I try not to look at my comics so much as an investment, but rather an endowment to any surviving family members...... and to them, whatever they are sold for is PURE profit. .......and lets face it, if my son goes into my old bar they'll say " yeah, I remember your Pop, cool guy, that'll be 3 dollars for the beer,son...", where as, if he goes into my old LCS they'll say " sure..... I'd like to make an offer on your Pop's collection." ....... so it certainly isn't all fruitless. Current day economics are just giving us a sobreity check and asks us if we're willing to become "JUST" collectors. Jimbo707 is very astute with his observation and assessment of the entertainment factor of Generation X ....GOD BLESS.....

 

-jimbo(a fried of jesus) (thumbs u

[tth2]

Just based on researching random comics in the Heritage archives that I'm interested in, it seems that many high grade books have sold in the last couple for far less than they did 5-10 years ago, even while low to mid grade copies have risen in value.

I think if you throw out the Gary Keller books, then the decline of high grade is not as dramatic as it may otherwise seem.

[adamstrange]

Just based on researching random comics in the Heritage archives that I'm interested in, it seems that many high grade books have sold in the last couple for far less than they did 5-10 years ago, even while low to mid grade copies have risen in value.

I think if you throw out the Gary Keller books, then the decline of high grade is not as dramatic as it may otherwise seem.

Those and duck books.

 

There are books that have been trending up. There are books that have been trending down. There are books that have been stable. Currently, some books are hot, some cold and some lukewarm. There are more than 30,000 GA comics so without some more specifics about which issues it's hard to provide much of a meaningful response.

 

[rjpb]

Just based on researching random comics in the Heritage archives that I'm interested in, it seems that many high grade books have sold in the last couple for far less than they did 5-10 years ago, even while low to mid grade copies have risen in value.

I think if you throw out the Gary Keller books, then the decline of high grade is not as dramatic as it may otherwise seem.

 

I had to look him up and then check the Heritage archives which were helpful in listing in his name in the descriptions when he sold a lot of stuff in 2009/2010. Apparently a TX real estate millionaire who overpaid earlier in the decade and might have been hurt further by the sheer glut of high grade pedigree books he dumped at one time.

 

Still the first book that pops up in the Heritage archives illustrates the point. An Adventure 100 in 9.4 purchased in 2004 for $4715, and sold as a Keller book in 2010 for $1912, and then subsequently sold twice in 2011, the first time for $1553 and then six months late for $1314 ( below current OSPG 9.0 value). Keller ( assuming he was the 2004 buyer) definitely overpaid, as the other 9.4 in the archives sold for $2300 in 2003 and then again in 2006 for $3883. The 2006 resale price may have been influenced by Keller's purchase in 2004, but the book appears to be slowly declining in value well below to what the other 9.4 sold for 10 years ago.

 

Granted, it's just one book, and Adventures without S&K stories have generally been fairly low interest books. I randomly clicked on other Keller books, looking for ones with sale histories other than just his purchase and sale, and came up with a Marvel Mystery 75 in 9.4, which sold for $2760 in 2002, and then likely bought by Keller in 2004 for $3350, and sold as a Keller book in 2009 for $2091, a notable decline from it's 2002 price.

 

I'm not a doomsayer, believing that the GA market is about to crash. There seem to be enough younger collectors coming on board to replace the geezers as they sell off, at least in the short run, and low-mid grade non-key superhero books from the 40s seem to sell for as much as they ever have by and large, and "hot" books still break new records. I was just observing that on average high grade non-key books may have been one of the weaker investments one could have made 2002-2008, and the market may not yet be done declining.

[clarkkentdds]

I have noticed this trend for sure. I have been collecting HG for years, but I am more uncomfortable paying what I used to pay due to a number of factors.

 

I agree with aman... In the CGC early days, a top census 9.4 seemed unbeatable. But due to the expansion of the census, I have lost money buying the "single highest graded 9.4" when a 9.6 pops up..

 

And with the prevalence of pressing, HG collectors are getting very discerning. The supply and demand ratio is skewed these days, and I get uneasy buying top census when there are 3 second place books a notch behind.

[originalisbest]

I'll throw my 10c worth in here.

 

As has been said, there just aren't many collectors left, and those ranks are thinning. Almost everyone is a collector/dealer/flipper.

 

There's nothing wrong with that, but people should be honest when moaning about a collapse in prices realised.

 

Collectors don't really care. They are not interested in selling - any downward trend in prices is seen as an opportunity to fill those runs or start another one.

 

Sure, I'd rather not see values crater - but as joe_collector once offered, he saw money spent on comics as money gone. Not an investment, but rather the price paid to enjoy an ephemeral piece of pop culture for a while.

 

Well, I'm paraphrasing/remembering as best I can but the sentiment is there.

 

That's an extremely pessimistic attitude to have - but a lot healthier than believing a whole lot of mid-grade bronze age books are going to fund one's retirement.

 

Me? I'm a collector of lots of books, some good, some rubbish, but I am under no illusion as to their future worth.

 

A collapse in prices? I'd welcome it.

 

That's all well and good, except a collapse in prices would then make it much more difficult for you to find items to add to your collection, as they suddenly wouldn't be worth the time and effort for people to dig them out of attics/closets/dumpsters and bring them to market for you to ultimately buy.

[VintageComics]

The exact same (unique) book popping up in a high profile auction has always been a recipe for disaster, though.

 

 

People see it, get the impression that something wrong with it and then avoid it.

 

Psychology plays a large part in collecting. How many times have you ever heard someone say "Oh, I would soooo have bought that at that price" and then offered them the same book. They're no longer interested.

 

Collectors often want something that someone else wants. If the collector becomes aware that nobody wants it, then they don't want it either.

 

We're wired that way.

 

Look at the OA world. They're masters at picking into that psychology and profiting from it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[originalisbest]

I expect to see everything spiral to zero in the next 50 years: I just don't think people in the 2nd half of the 21st century will be particularly interested in 20th-century pop-culture ephemera. I expect prices on mega-keys to remain stable over the next decade, though, because conspicuous consumption will keep prices elevated on those books.

 

Incidentally, when I was younger, almost everyone I knew collected something--comic books, coins, stamps, baseball cards, bottle caps, whatever. I now work as a teacher, and I don't see any of my students collecting anything. It's as if the ritual of collecting just didn't get passed along to generation Y2K, probably because most of them are living virtual lives online.

 

, I don't think "everything spiraling to zero in 50 years" is very likely to occur.

[originalisbest]

The exact same (unique) book popping up in a high profile auction has always been a recipe for disaster, though.

 

 

People see it, get the impression that something wrong with it and then avoid it.

 

Psychology plays a large part in collecting. How many times have you ever heard someone say "Oh, I would soooo have bought that at that price" and then offered them the same book. They're no longer interested.

 

Collectors often want something that someone else wants. If the collector becomes aware that nobody wants it, then they don't want it either.

 

We're wired that way.

 

Look at the OA world. They're masters at picking into that psychology and profiting from it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think Roy is right here!