High grade non-keys losing value?

[Cimm]

Not a masterpiece, but I rather like "Cowboys and Aliens". Very pulp-like (mixing H.G. wells with John Carter style action) or even comic-like (think "Planet Comics" and "Space Cowboy").

 

+1 it was just fun! Isn't that what movies should be?

[Flex Mentallo]

Not a masterpiece, but I rather like "Cowboys and Aliens". Very pulp-like (mixing H.G. wells with John Carter style action) or even comic-like (think "Planet Comics" and "Space Cowboy").

 

It was certainly better than John Carter. But then it had Olivia Wilde as an alien.

[mintcollector]

Comic books have a proven track record. Garbage Pail Kids, Pez and Beanie Babies do not. An original set of Roy Rogers guns and holster, or a Davy Crocket tin village set, can set you back a pretty penney.

 

When really smart people like DiCaprio, Cage, Gator, MMehdy, Bedrock and DiceX hoard and invest in comic books. How can I not follow their lead?

 

I would be a fool to not get on that train.

 

Sure. No one cares about Mickey Mouse anymore. Or about the Yellow Kid. But still. Go ahead and buy their early stuff. See what you have to pay.

 

Then get back to me.

 

What else can you buy for .12 cents and sell for $11,000.00? Not even cocaine or gold fits that bill.

 

 

 

Western collectibles have been on the decline for the past decade and each new auction has started to bring new lows. High end auction houses like Christie' and Sotheby's' take the items (those that they accept) with caution. Most other high end auctions and price records will confirm the soft sales that have been on decline for years. Just ask any speciality dealer who handles these items. I know several and all have been branching out into other areas for years now as a result if the decline. It is not cyclical; it is dying. Fewer and fewer collectors who grew up with these items remain and more collections are attempting to be sold year after year. Yes, certain pieces do obtain high value marks, but only out of genuine rarity. I can honestly state with certainty that second to newer items with little to no collecting appeal, Western collectibles are an item that brings the most disappointed reaction from clients who want my opinion on appraisals.

 

As to your statement about famous individuals buying comic books, I do not understand the significance. Nick Cage sold his comic book collection. For years celebrities have collected some rather unique items and paid dearly for them. This does not mean that these items are good investments as a result. Most are not. There are celebrities who continue to buy and sell art and antiques at a loss. Some only make money due to their own name being attached to the item in question; at the time of resale.

 

I cannot comment on the forum members you mention, as I do not know them personally. However, intelligent people collect all sorts of items. Does that mean that all items these individuals collect are wise investments? I can name a lot of items that well known intelligent people collect that would cause you to scratch your head. I can assure you that 'investment' is not the motivating factor in most of these choices. I make money in a lot of different markets. I hate to say this, but this has more to do with opportunity than anything else. I routinely make money in antiques (and collectibles) when others cannot; probably much like the fellow board members you mention who do as well. Investing in general has more to do with the individual than the item in question. If it was that easy the turnover of new antique and collectible dealers would not be as high as it is. Unfortunately, the failure rate is very high. Yes, some items (referring to most of my points in this thread) are better than others. As a result, intelligence is generally not always a factor in the equation.

 

I collect comic books because I like them, not for investment. It is true that I analyze items in great detail before I buy them, but I do not have a follow the herd mentality. Following the herd is what caused individuals to blindly buy real estate they cannot afford, buy gold at $1800 an ounce, and hoard Beanie Babies en masse. I for one am so glad I do not follow anyone's lead but my own. I may ask for advice or an opinion from time to time, but overall I have done quite well following my own instinct and I would always encourage others to do the same.

 

 

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

Two Fridays ago I had the day off and happened to be in a part of Burbank, California that is home to many specialty stores. It had been some time since I had been there so I decided to stop in a couple of stores I used to frequent.

 

First was a large model train store. As a kid my brother and I spent many hours building and playing with HO scale trains. We integrated some Erector sets into the layouts to create infrastructure. As an adult I repaired my Dad's old American Flyer trains and built an under the bed layout for my son on his fourth Christmas. While we had a great Christmas that spark never took. As I wandered about the store I wondered about the future of this hobby. A glance at a current catalog showed an inane attempt to capture the youth market with a Walking Dead boxcar with a zombie on top. Note to self - that will be rare as no one will be buying that!

 

Second, I went in search of what was the Mecca of automotive book stores. This store had very possible book available on cars old and new as well as planes. It was a wonderland. Sadly, they had moved and it appears we're renting out a small store front to sell out their stock. What had once been a wonderland was now a depressing collection of books that no one really wanted.

 

I left and started thinking that all of the hobbies I had enjoyed in my youth were becoming irrelevant. My kid's hobbies are virtual. They have more interesting material at their fingertips than I could have dreamed of as a kid. Who can blame them for wanting to spend their leisure hours on the computer.

 

My daughter still likes comics. There is something visceral about the medium. It should fare better than some other hobbies. It will change and I also think prices will drop as the interest in the old material is waning but the medium itself is strong and the digital conversion will only make it stronger.

[jbcomicbox]

Not a masterpiece, but I rather like "Cowboys and Aliens". Very pulp-like (mixing H.G. wells with John Carter style action) or even comic-like (think "Planet Comics" and "Space Cowboy").

 

+1 it was just fun! Isn't that what movies should be?

 

 

.....or a comicbook....

[Cat-Man_America]

If all the things you say are going to happen actually happen then it won't matter if comics are high grade or low grade. Why would someone care what condition printed matter is in if they don't want printed matter in the first place? Your argument would actually support the idea that true fans should get out of high grade comics and reduce their exposure. TRADE DOWN!

 

The better the condition the greater the demand even if it is going down. High grade mid range comic books such as adventure, human torch should be sold and Key comic books or key character books should replace them.

For example replace a some high grade adventure comic books with a mid to low grade cap 1.....

 

[font:Times New Roman]Assessing demand and collector motivation is tricky. Why should collectors obsess over titles that aren't trending well if their objective is to build a collection of the books they love? There is an ebb and flow to how books trend; worrying about it tends to take all of the fun out of collecting. Granted, HG is the safest course regardless if you're looking for a reasonable return on investment, but it also follows that BIG books (keys) bring bigger risk when investing large sums of capital.

 

It's wise to keep in mind that the collecting market will always be a subset of the existing fan base and subject to fluctuation as that base changes over time, but regardless of how the community changes investment in the hobby is directly bound by supply and demand. Everything you've stated about the GA market has more in common with the SA to Modern market, from my POV. Given the numbers of SA-Modern books in grade and market speculation there may indeed be a bubble looming ahead that bears watching, but that's a topic for another thread.

 

As I see it, the limited availability of GA collectibles lends itself to safer investment especially given the prospect of younger collectors entering the GA market. While I'm not prepared to state categorically that focusing heavily on market trends and controversial restoration issues is without merit, from where I sit it does seem apropos to craft a Twain-sian response to reports of our hobby's impending death.[/font]

 

 

... but I'm not sold on comparing comics with pulp magazines to make the case. Aside from a couple of failed film attempts, pulp nostalgia never evolved into the widespread media-fueled hobby vis-à-vis comic books (with stratospheric prices paid for iconic titles that coincide with lucrative franchise tie-ins).

 

I have to disagree with this. Until James Bond came along, Tarzan was probably the most popular film franchise in history. And there were tons of cross-promotional items. The symbiotic relationship between the radio program and the pulp magazine kept The Shadow hugely popular in both formats for two decades. Zorro? Movies and TV shows. Lots of media tie-ins. Philip Marlowe was a big hit on radio, and helped further the careers of Humphrey Bogart and Powell. Buck Rogers began in the pulps and became a mega-media sensation. Dr. Kildare became a hit TV series. Max Brand spawned tons of B-westerns. Hopalong Cassidy was probably as popular in his day as Spider-Man is now.

 

Items tying in to these characters became quite collectible early on. Burroughs 1st editions were bringing big dollars even back in the 1960s. Chandler was an early favorite of book collectors. Some of these are still quite valuable, some are beginning to decline.

 

If anything, this points out the opposite argument. Even mega-media characters who are household names have their time and place... and no matter how big, are someday supplanted by something new.

 

I'll concede the point that pulp fiction has always played a prominent role in popular entertainment, especially early television of the 1950's & 60's, but the facts as you're presenting them aren't in evidence (I thought I'd toss that in since you left out Perry Mason). I know where you're coming from in appreciating the contributions made by pulps to movies, television, radio and other forms of popular entertainment and respect your POV, but the only way this venerable dog can be persuaded to hunt is by stretching it's leash.

 

 

We can both agree that there are quite a few big-budget comic character movie franchises. Please name one or more recent, marginally successful pulp character movie franchises?

 

You're absolutely right about how important pulp fiction was to radio, early TV and B-movie fare, and I love all of it passionately, but in the era of mega-buck film and media blitzes I'm at a loss to see any pulp character historical equivalent to the current popularity of comic books.

 

Tarzan might've been the most popular B-movie franchise in history, but as an example of first tier filmmaking it's much closer to the rule than the exception. After a promising MGM feature film starring Olympic medalist Johnny Weissmuller the series was relegated to weaker and weaker productions (including a low budget TV series featuring Ron Ely) until the Greystoke reboot of the franchise attempted to reintroduce the character with a bigger budget and much closer to ERB's original concept. Unfortunately, Burrough's vision of the character failed to catch on with the public.

 

Zorro, the Shadow, Tarzan, The Whistler, etc., were all successful as popular fiction, but never green-lighted as more than low budget programmers (that is, rewarded with first class productions comparable in their own time to modern comic character blockbusters or James Bond). On rare occasions over the past forty years when attempts have been made to bring popular pulp characters back to the screen in major productions (including revered pulp icons such as Doc Savage & The Shadow) they've failed to attract an audience validating the bigger production budgets.

 

Undoubtably these failures occurred due to poor choices made by the studios in charge of production and promotion such as failure to trust the audience's ability to relate to characters outside of their generational frame of reference without employing a tongue in cheek approach (camp). Whatever the reasons, audiences young and old seem to connect better with identifiable comic characters that are handled with a bit more sensitivity to the source material.

 

For the sake of clarification, my use of the term symbiotic relationship was in the context of storyboarding and how comics or graphic novels are broken down and visualized in filmmaking. I meant this in the literal sense. Sorry if there was any confusion on that point.

[The-Collector]

I expect to see everything spiral to zero in the next 50 years: I just don't think people in the 2nd half of the 21st century will be particularly interested in 20th-century pop-culture ephemera. I expect prices on mega-keys to remain stable over the next decade, though, because conspicuous consumption will keep prices elevated on those books.

 

Incidentally, when I was younger, almost everyone I knew collected something--comic books, coins, stamps, baseball cards, bottle caps, whatever. I now work as a teacher, and I don't see any of my students collecting anything. It's as if the ritual of collecting just didn't get passed along to generation Y2K, probably because most of them are living virtual lives online.

 

That's an interesting observation. Another trend, though, is that today's geeks, which I assume are one of the most likely demographics to become future collectors, will grow up to higher incomes than for any generation before them. I am living proof of that happening already.

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]

There are many factors that either directly or indirectly impact market stability. Some are obvious; others, more elusive. I doubt that anyone can predict with certainty where things are headed, but these indicators seem relevant (opinions welcomed):

 

1. Artificially inflated auction prices skew market values. Surcharges (buyer premiums) and dueling bidders inflate the value of collectibles to unrealistic proportions which may not be reflected in subsequent auction/private sales of similar books & grades over a short period of time. This may contribute to a false perception of downward trending.

 

2. OS Price Guide, CGC census and GPA. These are all useful tools, but none provide uniformly accurate information except in the abstract. OS tends to be conservative (slow to change) and fails to take into account the value of rarer books which don't occur in higher grades (also, no guidance is provided above 9.2), the CGC census has only marginal accuracy as raw resubs w/o labels can be counted two or more times leaving misleading duplications in the census, and GPA misses many private sales & C-Link auction results limiting it's usefulness for tracking trends and negotiating fair prices.

 

3. Crack & press resubmission. This complicates evaluating HG book values with any consistency as speculators roll the dice repeatedly seeking an elusive grade bump. It also has the potential for destabilizing top end market values, not to mention placing fragile books at risk. Note: I'm not opposed to pressing for legitimate grade reevaluation, but this should be used sparingly on a case by case basis. Some books should never be pressed, much less repressed, and I'm sure we can all point to examples of books that have suffered irreparable damage from the process.

 

4. Reliable restoration determination and acceptance. In one sense I agree with Mitch that undetected restoration can have a devastating impact on comic values and trust, but I have a different view on how to address this issue. I see comics from the perspective of the more sophisticated antiquities trade (maps, old manuscripts, rare books, historical documents and miscellaneous aging paper ephemera), with the value of restored books being a much greater percentage of unrestored values than accepted today. IOW, in addition to reliable detection the collecting community needs to be better educated that professionally restored books aren't recyclable boat anchors.

 

5. Other variables that continue to influence comic markets:

 

>>>>> A. Movies - Popular superhero flicks provide momentum and fuel speculation. This is especially true of successful franchises, but across the board the collector market is buoyed by the general Public's continued fascination with superheroes.

 

>>>>> B. New collectors entering the market and GA relevance - This is an unpredictable factor, but given the nature of the hobby and tendency among many SA-Modern collectors to move beyond their comfort zones into rarer GA collectibles there seems little to worry about in the near term.

 

>>>>> C. Reboots and changing trends (digital vs paper, etc.) - Another unpredictable factor, but not one that would necessarily impact the desirability of owning older, rarer, uniquely fragile paper collectibles.

 

>>>>> D. Economic factors - Overall, the recession had negligible impact on GA book values as at least one HG pedigree collection and several smaller collections reached the market under tough economic conditions and were easily absorbed.

 

>>>>> E. Reprints - HC and soft-cover archival editions keep the GA & SA alive fueling fan interest in the more desirable originals.

 

From my POV collectors should take the long view perspective rather than stressing over short term gains or loses. Some trends are obvious, others defy prediction and are impacted by as few as two or three deep pocket investors entering the market with an agenda (such as competition over the acquisition of specific pedigrees or highest graded copies).

 

Given the fact that we're just entering a period of economic recovery, it's too soon to predict any trends in respect to high, middle or low grade books based upon prices realized ten years ago when CGC was still gaining momentum and acceptance, let alone at the height of the recession when things should've been much shakier market-wise. My (and a bit more). [/font]

 

Plain and simple...I just enjoy reading what you have to say sir!!! (thumbs u very poetic and intelligible smart man well put!!!

 

Agree, a very thoughtful post from Cat!

 

+1

 

This made me think about PCH long term trends. they don't have movies to maintain their preference in popular culture and the group collecting them seem to be a bit older. But they do have lots of other plusses.

[ComicConnoisseur]

... but I'm not sold on comparing comics with pulp magazines to make the case. Aside from a couple of failed film attempts, pulp nostalgia never evolved into the widespread media-fueled hobby vis-à-vis comic books (with stratospheric prices paid for iconic titles that coincide with lucrative franchise tie-ins).

 

I have to disagree with this. Until James Bond came along, Tarzan was probably the most popular film franchise in history. And there were tons of cross-promotional items. The symbiotic relationship between the radio program and the pulp magazine kept The Shadow hugely popular in both formats for two decades. Zorro? Movies and TV shows. Lots of media tie-ins. Philip Marlowe was a big hit on radio, and helped further the careers of Humphrey Bogart and Powell. Buck Rogers began in the pulps and became a mega-media sensation. Dr. Kildare became a hit TV series. Max Brand spawned tons of B-westerns. Hopalong Cassidy was probably as popular in his day as Spider-Man is now.

 

Items tying in to these characters became quite collectible early on. Burroughs 1st editions were bringing big dollars even back in the 1960s. Chandler was an early favorite of book collectors. Some of these are still quite valuable, some are beginning to decline.

 

If anything, this points out the opposite argument. Even mega-media characters who are household names have their time and place... and no matter how big, are someday supplanted by something new.

Li'l Abner is the perfect example of this.

The comic strip ran for over 43 years!

August 13, 1934 through November 13, 1977.

It had Licensing, advertising and promotion in the hundreds, plus it also had 7 movies made about it.

It also had a 35 million dollar theme park called Dogpatch USA that is now abandoned collecting dust.

dogpatch-u-s-a abandoned

Yep, I would say if it could happen to Li'l Abner,then it could happen to obscure golden age characters. Ask anybody under the age of 40 who Li'l Abner is?

[Johnny545]

I expect to see everything spiral to zero in the next 50 years: I just don't think people in the 2nd half of the 21st century will be particularly interested in 20th-century pop-culture ephemera. I expect prices on mega-keys to remain stable over the next decade, though, because conspicuous consumption will keep prices elevated on those books.

 

Incidentally, when I was younger, almost everyone I knew collected something--comic books, coins, stamps, baseball cards, bottle caps, whatever. I now work as a teacher, and I don't see any of my students collecting anything. It's as if the ritual of collecting just didn't get passed along to generation Y2K, probably because most of them are living virtual lives online.

 

That's an interesting observation. Another trend, though, is that today's geeks, which I assume are one of the most likely demographics to become future collectors, will grow up to higher incomes than for any generation before them. I am living proof of that happening already.

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]

There are many factors that either directly or indirectly impact market stability. Some are obvious; others, more elusive. I doubt that anyone can predict with certainty where things are headed, but these indicators seem relevant (opinions welcomed):

 

1. Artificially inflated auction prices skew market values. Surcharges (buyer premiums) and dueling bidders inflate the value of collectibles to unrealistic proportions which may not be reflected in subsequent auction/private sales of similar books & grades over a short period of time. This may contribute to a false perception of downward trending.

 

2. OS Price Guide, CGC census and GPA. These are all useful tools, but none provide uniformly accurate information except in the abstract. OS tends to be conservative (slow to change) and fails to take into account the value of rarer books which don't occur in higher grades (also, no guidance is provided above 9.2), the CGC census has only marginal accuracy as raw resubs w/o labels can be counted two or more times leaving misleading duplications in the census, and GPA misses many private sales & C-Link auction results limiting it's usefulness for tracking trends and negotiating fair prices.

 

3. Crack & press resubmission. This complicates evaluating HG book values with any consistency as speculators roll the dice repeatedly seeking an elusive grade bump. It also has the potential for destabilizing top end market values, not to mention placing fragile books at risk. Note: I'm not opposed to pressing for legitimate grade reevaluation, but this should be used sparingly on a case by case basis. Some books should never be pressed, much less repressed, and I'm sure we can all point to examples of books that have suffered irreparable damage from the process.

 

4. Reliable restoration determination and acceptance. In one sense I agree with Mitch that undetected restoration can have a devastating impact on comic values and trust, but I have a different view on how to address this issue. I see comics from the perspective of the more sophisticated antiquities trade (maps, old manuscripts, rare books, historical documents and miscellaneous aging paper ephemera), with the value of restored books being a much greater percentage of unrestored values than accepted today. IOW, in addition to reliable detection the collecting community needs to be better educated that professionally restored books aren't recyclable boat anchors.

 

5. Other variables that continue to influence comic markets:

 

>>>>> A. Movies - Popular superhero flicks provide momentum and fuel speculation. This is especially true of successful franchises, but across the board the collector market is buoyed by the general Public's continued fascination with superheroes.

 

>>>>> B. New collectors entering the market and GA relevance - This is an unpredictable factor, but given the nature of the hobby and tendency among many SA-Modern collectors to move beyond their comfort zones into rarer GA collectibles there seems little to worry about in the near term.

 

>>>>> C. Reboots and changing trends (digital vs paper, etc.) - Another unpredictable factor, but not one that would necessarily impact the desirability of owning older, rarer, uniquely fragile paper collectibles.

 

>>>>> D. Economic factors - Overall, the recession had negligible impact on GA book values as at least one HG pedigree collection and several smaller collections reached the market under tough economic conditions and were easily absorbed.

 

>>>>> E. Reprints - HC and soft-cover archival editions keep the GA & SA alive fueling fan interest in the more desirable originals.

 

From my POV collectors should take the long view perspective rather than stressing over short term gains or loses. Some trends are obvious, others defy prediction and are impacted by as few as two or three deep pocket investors entering the market with an agenda (such as competition over the acquisition of specific pedigrees or highest graded copies).

 

Given the fact that we're just entering a period of economic recovery, it's too soon to predict any trends in respect to high, middle or low grade books based upon prices realized ten years ago when CGC was still gaining momentum and acceptance, let alone at the height of the recession when things should've been much shakier market-wise. My (and a bit more). [/font]

 

Plain and simple...I just enjoy reading what you have to say sir!!! (thumbs u very poetic and intelligible smart man well put!!!

 

Agree, a very thoughtful post from Cat!

 

+1

 

This made me think about PCH long term trends. they don't have movies to maintain their preference in popular culture and the group collecting them seem to be a bit older. But they do have lots of other plusses.

 

PCH is in a stronger spot than most niche GA books (IMHO) because it isn't dependent on a trend, popular childhood character or anything else only good art and a universal love for monsters, ghouls, blood, guts and gore there seems to be an insatiable demand for the macabre regardless of demographic and this seems to transcend generations.

 

Johnny

 

 

 

 

 

[HRCostigan]

PCH is in a stronger spot than most niche GA books (IMHO) because it isn't dependent on a trend, popular childhood character or anything else only good art and a universal love for monsters, ghouls, blood, guts and gore there seems to be an insatiable demand for the macabre regardless of demographic and this seems to transcend generations.

 

Might that same type of logic be applied to GGA? I've heard the counterpoint on these boards before that GGA will be one of the next genres to fall.

[Johnny545]

PCH is in a stronger spot than most niche GA books (IMHO) because it isn't dependent on a trend, popular childhood character or anything else only good art and a universal love for monsters, ghouls, blood, guts and gore there seems to be an insatiable demand for the macabre regardless of demographic and this seems to transcend generations.

 

Might that same type of logic be applied to GGA? I've heard the counterpoint on these boards before that GGA will be one of the next genres to fall.

 

I would argue yes and for basically the same reasons anyone of any generation loves to look at GGA and it isn't dependent on some nostalgic link to a childhood character that may ultimately not translate to the next generation of collectors.

[markseifert]

Pulps are and Western Collectibles are some of the best cautionary tales to date. Unless it is something that is truly rare and desirable, Western type collectibles have been selling at a huge discount.

 

Another way to look at this with Westerns is that the genre has had a pretty darn good run -- basically getting going for real around the 1850s. And if we agree for the sake of argument that the genre is well into its sunset years -- though we still get that occasional pop-culture Western phenomenon like David Milch's Deadwood -- that's still a 150+ year lifespan.

 

Not too bad, and to play devil's advocate, maybe it speaks a tiny bit to jimbo's comment that superheroes might not be so popular in the second half of this century. That'd put them at roughly 150 years after their beginnings too.

 

There are some interesting points of comparison. Westerns got giants such as Zane Grey who took the genre to new heights about 50 years after their beginnings. One might say the same thing about superhero comics with creators such as Moore and Miller, also about 50 years after the superhero's beginnings.

 

Westerns then got a boost from the rising popularity of the pulp format, comics then got a boost from the graphic novel or collection format. Westerns then got a boost from film/tv, and that's about the point we're at with superhero comics now. More or less. Each genre working its way towards maximum available exposure. Could be the lifespan of such a thing is connected to the lifespan of humans. It can be expected to last "x" generations, at maximum.

 

There's no way to know if any of that really means anything, but If the comparison does hold, we've still got 75 years or so to go in the lifespan of the popularity of the superhero, which I think probably passes the eyeball test for most of us, as far as you can imagine such things.

 

The lifespan of the collectibility of associated items has quite a few more variables, I'd think, but again, a rough analog with the Western collectibles lifespan wouldn't surprise me -- 50 more good years or so, and after that, who knows.

 

Then again, that could all be wrong.

[Johnny545]

PCH is in a stronger spot than most niche GA books (IMHO) because it isn't dependent on a trend, popular childhood character or anything else only good art and a universal love for monsters, ghouls, blood, guts and gore there seems to be an insatiable demand for the macabre regardless of demographic and this seems to transcend generations.

 

Might that same type of logic be applied to GGA? I've heard the counterpoint on these boards before that GGA will be one of the next genres to fall.

 

I would argue yes and for basically the same reasons anyone of any generation loves to look at GGA and it isn't dependent on some nostalgic link to a childhood character that may ultimately not translate to the next generation of collectors.

 

I think the most vulnerable collectibles are those that are dependent on a generational, childhood, nostalgic link one that does not or may not translate from one generation to another. Lots of things come to mind...

[nearmint]

Pulps are and Western Collectibles are some of the best cautionary tales to date. Unless it is something that is truly rare and desirable, Western type collectibles have been selling at a huge discount.

 

Another way to look at this with Westerns is that the genre has had a pretty darn good run -- basically getting going for real around the 1850s. And if we agree for the sake of argument that the genre is well into its sunset years -- though we still get that occasional pop-culture Western phenomenon like David Milch's Deadwood -- that's still a 150+ year lifespan.

 

Not too bad, and to play devil's advocate, maybe it speaks a tiny bit to jimbo's comment that superheroes might not be so popular in the second half of this century. That'd put them at roughly 150 years after their beginnings too.

 

There are some interesting points of comparison. Westerns got giants such as Zane Grey who took the genre to new heights about 50 years after their beginnings. One might say the same thing about superhero comics with creators such as Moore and Miller, also about 50 years after the superhero's beginnings.

 

Westerns then got a boost from the rising popularity of the pulp format, comics then got a boost from the graphic novel or collection format. Westerns then got a boost from film/tv, and that's about the point we're at with superhero comics now. More or less. Each genre working its way towards maximum available exposure. Could be the lifespan of such a thing is connected to the lifespan of humans. It can be expected to last "x" generations, at maximum.

 

There's no way to know if any of that really means anything, but If the comparison does hold, we've still got 75 years or so to go in the lifespan of the popularity of the superhero, which I think probably passes the eyeball test for most of us, as far as you can imagine such things.

 

The lifespan of the collectibility of associated items has quite a few more variables, I'd think, but again, a rough analog with the Western collectibles lifespan wouldn't surprise me -- 50 more good years or so, and after that, who knows.

 

Then again, that could all be wrong.

 

It's easy to update and modernize superhero books. Difficult to do the same for westerns.

[Aman619]

One aspect comics, especially superhero comics have in their favor when compared to the fate of westerns, and Lil Abner is that at heart, superhero stories are a modern retellings of classic stories about the gods interacting with humans on earth. They have been unlimited in locale unlike westerns and Lil Abner, to name the two posed so far here.

 

 

I can see however a time when media absorption with COSTUMED superheroes fades out of fashion. But, Hollywood has largely converted the spandex cartoony look that works in print into fashionable armor fabrics and gear, which suits heir own issues with cameras and lighting.

 

When we see the XMen who are all colorfully spandex clad in print, appear in black leather jumpsuits on screen, we experience an entertainment more like Matrix than a comic book. So that the filmed versions of comics heroes are safely removed from their limited funnybook origins. And I think it's in films and animation hat holds the future of comics.

 

But, there is the nagging feeling that we are probably near a high point for the medium.

[markseifert]

It's easy to update and modernize superhero books. Difficult to do the same for westerns.

 

When we see the XMen who are all colorfully spandex clad in print, appear in black leather jumpsuits on screen, we experience an entertainment more like Matrix than a comic book.

 

75 years from now, the notion of the costumed adventurer might seem just as tied to a certain era and place as the notion of a cowboy does today.

 

One aspect comics, especially superhero comics have in their favor when compared to the fate of westerns, and Lil Abner is that at heart, superhero stories are a modern retellings of classic stories about the gods interacting with humans on earth. They have been unlimited in locale unlike westerns and Lil Abner, to name the two posed so far here.

 

That's a good point, but this all reduces to heroes vs villains, yeah? And further down to man vs man, man vs nature, man vs himself like we all learned in grade school. Looked at a certain way, the difference between the Lone Ranger and Batman is a group of relatively small details. In 75 years, lets say our collective imaginations are again captured by untamed, lawless frontiers -- mining colonies in space or what have you. Is Batman on Mars still Batman, or will he be something else?

[Flex Mentallo]

PCH is in a stronger spot than most niche GA books (IMHO) because it isn't dependent on a trend, popular childhood character or anything else only good art and a universal love for monsters, ghouls, blood, guts and gore there seems to be an insatiable demand for the macabre regardless of demographic and this seems to transcend generations.

 

Might that same type of logic be applied to GGA? I've heard the counterpoint on these boards before that GGA will be one of the next genres to fall.

 

Funny, I was thinking similar - that about 25 years ago science fiction books were high tariff books in Overstreet relative to horror. Wolverton horror books were always high.

 

It misled me into thinking that classic art was the best guide to investment.

 

At the time most PCH horror seemed cheap, but nor irrationally so. It just felt like the established order of things...

 

 

[Sqeggs]

 

Li'l Abner is the perfect example of this.

The comic strip ran for over 43 years!

August 13, 1934 through November 13, 1977.

It had Licensing, advertising and promotion in the hundreds, plus it also had 7 movies made about it.

It also had a 35 million dollar theme park called Dogpatch USA that is now abandoned collecting dust.

dogpatch-u-s-a abandoned

Yep, I would say if it could happen to Li'l Abner,then it could happen to obscure golden age characters. Ask anybody under the age of 40 who Li'l Abner is?

 

Seven movies? I can just remember one -- a not very good musical based on a broadway show.

[Sqeggs]

One aspect comics, especially superhero comics have in their favor when compared to the fate of westerns, and Lil Abner is that at heart, superhero stories are a modern retellings of classic stories about the gods interacting with humans on earth. They have been unlimited in locale unlike westerns and Lil Abner, to name the two posed so far here.

 

 

I can see however a time when media absorption with COSTUMED superheroes fades out of fashion. But, Hollywood has largely converted the spandex cartoony look that works in print into fashionable armor fabrics and gear, which suits heir own issues with cameras and lighting.

 

When we see the XMen who are all colorfully spandex clad in print, appear in black leather jumpsuits on screen, we experience an entertainment more like Matrix than a comic book. So that the filmed versions of comics heroes are safely removed from their limited funnybook origins. And I think it's in films and animation hat holds the future of comics.

 

But, there is the nagging feeling that we are probably near a high point for the medium.

 

I think so, too. The success of super hero movies has really been rather unexpected, if you think about it. Stan Lee spent years trying to interest a major studio in the Marvel properties. Super heroes on prime time TV consisted of the 1950s Superman series, the short-lived 1960s campy Batman series, and the even shorter-lived Green Hornet series -- unless I'm forgetting something.

 

Combined with the decline in comic book sales, super heroes must have seemed pretty unpromising material to studio execs.

 

We have had a string of moderately successful to very successful movies, but I think their success can lead us to overstate just how embedded in popular culture super heroes are. I can easily see them following some of the other characters mentioned in this thread along the path from wildly popular to kinda popular to familiar, but not too popular to who? what?

 

For instance, Tarzan is still widely known, but who wants to make or see a new Tarzan movie and how many Tarzan comic collectors are there? Could well be the situation with Batman or Spider Man in 10 years.

[Gatsby77]

Overall I think if you look through the photojournals, it's evident that--factoring in inflation and increased grading standardes--only 20-25% of the books produced in the GA have been truly good investments over the last 20-25 years--primarily superhero, but also some pre-code horror, GGA and Fiction House sci fi.

 

Gerber even omits whole swaths of western, romance and humor titles that had lesser demand then, and have generally fallen since. But I don't think that's a surprise--and folks buying comics for investment in the early 90s were probably ignoring those genres anyway.

 

Frankly, the only declines that have surprised me over the last decade have been with the Gaines File copies and the Disney duck books. If those can take a hit, is any genre safe?

 

The other stagnation that's surprised me has been with Wonder Woman. While I've been ecstatic to acquire several single-digit issues of Wonder Woman & Sensation, I'm still shocked at how the non-keys among 1-10 haven't moved much. One would have been better off buying ASM, Superman, or Batman titles--or investing in the stock market than in buying these books.

 

I know we all read that recent viral missive on why there hasn't been a Wonder Woman movie, but the fact that we'll see a Guardians of the Galaxy film prior to a Wonder Woman one truly boggles my mind.

 

Has anyone put together a ranking of what sub-categories have done best investment-wise since 2003?

 

Ex. Did early Pep and Archie in mid-grade (say realistic 5.0-5.5) oustrip comparable (5.0-5.5) issues of Action 11-20 or Superman 2-10) on a % base?

 

DidTales of Supense 39 bought in 2003 post better cumulative % gains than say...Wonder Woman 1, Crime Suspense Stories 22 or Suspense 3?