In Search of a Formula: How Do We Calculate the Value of a Comic Graded 9.4 or Higher?

[SW3D]

This question is particularly directed to any and all Math Geniuses!

 

I've recently purchased the Overstreet Price Guide 2013-2014 Edition (yep... I'm a little late on this). And like I do every year, I scour and research the raw/ungraded values of my favorite comics and those I want to sell and purchase.

 

Like many collectors, I am "condition sensitive" and only collect high grades, and when it comes to buying graded comics, I have my personal guidelines:

 

Golden Age: 8.0 and up

Silver Age: 9.0 and up

Bronze Age: 9.2 and up

Copper Age: 9.4 and up

Modern Age: 9.6 and up

 

There are times I will buy below the aforementioned grading scale. And such exceptions are made for comics which are categorized as scarce, rare, or low print runs, or comics with unique signatures from talent seldom seen or no longer living, or comics offered at the right price. Case in point, I purchased a 9.6 Modern recently at $30 ( shipping costs included ), which had a signature and was a key (the 1st Appearance of a Major character). And this comic languished on eBay for I don't know how long, simply because many collectors thumb down on 9.6's from the Modern Age. And the total CGC census population for this comic is low to moderate, with grades evenly represented for 9.4, 9.6, and 9.8 and none above. I personally believe, if there is value to a comic (and there almost always is), a 9.6 which is Near Mint Plus, is an exceptional grade, especially if the comic is over 15 years old (Pre-CGC), then why not go for it if the price is right? And it was, so I did.

 

But anyway... As I was guess-estimating the value of my CGC collection, using OPG, GPA, the CGC census, market trends, and my crystal ball, a thought popped into my head: "Is there a mathematical formula that will help me estimate the value of comics at 9.4 grade or higher based on pricing currently listed in the Overstreet Price Guide?"

 

As you may know, OPG's grading tier tops out at 9.2 for raw/ungraded. So how do I estimate comics graded at 9.4 and above?

 

Now I will admit, I am no math genius. I flunked Calculus in college, and whenever I do numbers crunching, I need the aid of Excel, a calculator, and my digits! Yep... I am mathematically challenged! But using logic and reason, I must assume, there must be a way to predict ascending/appreciating number values by using a mathematical formula or principle that can predict the next theoretical value based on a pre-determined sequence of number values... such as one's already listed in OPG.

 

For instance, for Swamp Thing Volume 1, Number 1, Overstreet has the following values based on raw grades:

 

2.0 $15

4.0 $30

6.0 $45

8.0 $103

9.0 $227

9.2 $350

 

Based on these appreciating price values, coupled evenly with ascending grades, what formula could I use to reasonably predict the raw values of a 9.4, 9.6, 9.8, 9.9, and even a 10.0?

 

Any math savants know?

 

I would greatly appreciate your feedback.

 

SW3D

 

See more journals by screenwriter3d

[seanfingh]

 

Use GPA and board sales for moderns and Coppers, a combination of those two and a thorough review of Pedigree and CL for older books. I'm pretty sure Heritage reports to GPA, but if not, check there, too.

[SW3D]

Okay... let's say, theoretically, a graded comic had yet to exist and therefore has not been sold on any auction site or tracked by GPA.

 

And let say this comic would be the first of its kind once graded by CGC.

 

And let's say the raw values of this comic appears in Overstreet but only up to 9.2.

 

How would I accurately predict the value of this OAK at 9.4 or above?

 

What math formula should I use?

 

Anybody?

 

SW3D

[Ronnylama]

Generally, how the quantity builds is that you take the 9.0 and 9.2 differnce then add that to the 9.4 then do the same incrementally to the 9.2 to the 9.4 for the 9.6

Like Sean said, GPA is a great way to get an understanding but I believe the worth is in the increments.

[X-ray Spexx]

I think the thing to remember is that comics like anything else are only worth what someone is willing to pay you for them. The problem with GPA is that it seems like an amalgamation of what the books has currently sold for not the actual value based on scarcity, quality, quantity, etc. If everybody goes wild over say East of West and is willing to pay ever higher prices because they think its going to be the next big thing then GPA will report ever increasing value regardless of whether its really valuable.

 

I've seen books on GPA at one value which despite what they say you can't actually find at that value, so you end up paying whatever the market demands if you want the book that bad. Think about all the people who list books for ridiculous prices and you'd think nobody would buy it for that price and all of a sudden it sells. Or books that are horribly overpriced and you look and people have made ridiculously high bids on them anyway.

 

My two cents.

[BlowUpTheMoon]

 

How would I accurately predict the value of this OAK at 9.4 or above?

 

Remind me again what OAK is an acronym for, please.

[X-ray Spexx]

Stands for One of A Thousand ( 1K )

[SW3D]

Stop being a person_too_unaware_of_social_graces and be serious for once!

 

If no one can take this seriously don't respond to the f&cking question!

 

SW3D

 

 

[GamingEtc-migration]

Stands for One of A Thousand ( 1K )

 

Seriously? I've never seen it explained but I always assumed it stood for "One of A Kind" as in the only one there currently is of said book. One of a thousand..that's weird and clunky.

[seanfingh]

Stop being a person_too_unaware_of_social_graces and be serious for once!

 

If no one can take this seriously don't respond to the f&cking question!

 

SW3D

 

 

Get over yourself. It is a stupid question and you are fortunate that people have tried to give you usable information. Valuing comics is not chemistry.

[SW3D]

Perhaps you need to get over yourself. If you thought it was such a stupid question then why are you here.

 

The information you provided I already knew.

 

Move on and move out.

 

SW3D

[Mike's Rack]

Perhaps you need to get over yourself. If you thought it was such a stupid question then why are you here.

 

The information you provided I already knew.

 

Move on and move out.

 

SW3D

Making friends with established and respected boardies one thread at a time (thumbs u

[seanfingh]

At first, I was here because you have written some interesting journals. Secondarily, I was hopeful to provide some meaningful structure to a stupid inquiry. Now I am here to see if you are really going to melt down like a double fudge napalm sundae. Congrats on a sweet Journal!

[SW3D]

Dude... you always have a smirky attitude. Little cute comments best relegated for the play ground.

 

If you like my journals that's great!

 

If you don't... that's fine too... but I don't need to hear it from you if you don't like it nor do I need the hear the immature attitude of others to clog this "stupid" discussion.

 

Just tell me when I have ever made insincere and immature comments on a journal you've written? Let me know and I'll shut up and I'll move on and I'll stop posting "stupid" questions, "stupid" journals, and other things.

 

SW3D

[seanfingh]

Dude, you are asking how to value a hypothetical comic that has never been graded through the use of a non- existent math formula. It's like asking how to mate swamp rats with a whiffle ball bat.

 

If the book has never been graded, it either has super low demand, or is ultra rare. Neither have enough data points to extrapolate anything even approaching a formula. You can go free market and drop it on Ebay with no reserve. That might tell you if there is demand, but you can't be sure because you don't know whether you have reached all of the potential purchasers or not. You can put it at a high fixed price, but then you don't know where on the spectrum it is to know how to field best offers.

 

That leaves you with good old common sense. If it is a 3.00 book in Overstreet and it is a 9.4. It is most likely worth a little less or a little more than stabbing costs plus 3.00, or not worth the effort.

 

If it is an 80.00 book in Overstreet and you are the first to market, it might blow up, even in 9.4. It might fall flat. But there is no formula, and there never will be one. It is antithetical to the way the comic market works.

[movingimages-migration]

It requires solving a system of 3 equations if you use the last three data points (8,9, and 9,2)

 

http://askville.amazon.com/formula-curve/AnswerViewer.do?requestId=8796792

 

You can also type "online graphing calculator" in google and there are many that will take a series of plot points and return the graph.

 

Enter values like this

X=condition grade (example 8,9.6, etc)

Y=value in $$$

 

so it would be

point 1 (8,103)

point 2 (9,227)

point 3 (9.2, 350)

 

 

[surfer99]

What up with all the negativity? Life's too short...just hug it out and move on.

 

I work with guys who are very much into analyzing data and coming up with all kinds of formulas...unfortunately I do not possess those skills. Sounds like movingimages knows what he's talking about though.

 

This website offers 9.4 pricing...

http://www.comicspriceguide.com/default.aspx

 

I doubt that was very helpful, but I try.

 

[bagofleas]

There are no stupid questions.

 

A person isn't stupid just because they don't know the terminology involved on a given subject.

 

No one should be teasing or sarcastic to someone just because of a simple question. To do so shows a lack of maturity and a high level of egotism that comes across as condescending and patronizing.

 

Let's all just be friendly and helpful here on the boards and journals without acting like we have a superiority complex. The helpful and loving nature of most of the people here is the biggest reason why I have come to love the CGC registry and the fellow collectors who reside here.

 

Let's keep it that way!

 

Now with all of that out the way, OAK does indeed stand for One of A Kind. I could go farther into my knowledge of this but will refrain from doing so. Don't want to come across as superior or something, right?

 

As far as a mathematical formula is concerned, it is nearly impossible to put an established formula to place a value on these 9.4 and higher graded comics, due to the roller coaster supply and demand nature of this hobby.

 

There are just too many human factors that go into what something is worth and what someone is willing to pay for a graded comic to reliably place a set-in-stone value on it.

 

Don't forget that unforeseen factors, like unintended max bids, can alter what GPA shows.

 

I agree with X-ray Spexx that it comes down to what someone is really willing to pay.

 

Not to mention the value in having CGC AUTHENTICATE the grade! After all, what a seller says is the condition may not be what you consider the same condition. Having spent the money for grading by a third party can drastically alter the final value of a comic.

 

The upside to this is, of course, being able to put an undeniable condition on the comic! But when that condition surpasses even Overstreet's top grade value of 9.2, it begins to break down to multiple variables:

 

1. What is the CGC grade?

2. How many are out there in that grade?

3. How many higher graded copies are out there?

4. How sought after is the comic in raw form? In CGC graded form?

5. What is the 9.2 raw value that Overstreet states and how do you extrapolate a value from it?

6. What are the extraneous features of the issue, such as sigs, sketches, multiple covers, etc...

 

There are many more factors that can apply to placing a monetary value to a particular CGC graded comic book, but suffice it to say there simply is NO way of applying a set-in-stone mathematical principal to the concept. There are just too many HUMAN-NATURE variables involved.

 

However, if you completely remove the human condition from the equation, I would personally multiply the Overstreet 9.2 value by the following:

 

9.4 : x2 minus 25% for 5 or more similar graded copies

9.6 : x3 minus 25% for the same as above

9.8 : x5 minus the same

9.9 : x10 minus the same

10 : x15-20 minus the same

Then take off another 25% from that total for ten or more similar graded copies out there.

 

This is just my opinion, of course, and probably both wrong and simplified for what is being asked for here, but that is why it is so hard to definitively apply a mathematical formula to this.

 

Anyway, I love you guys! Let's just keep trying to make this a wonderful and friendly place for everyone to feel comfortable in,

 

 

 

[meshuggah]

Hoping the bashing is done. But moving on to SW3D's question. I really think there are too many unquantifiable variables for this. As Sean mentioned there are many ways to test said hypothetical book. Even doing a no reserve free bidding someone who may have bid higher may be unaware of this listing.

 

A good example of crazy fluctuation is the BA 12 thread going on in comics general. A 9.8 sold for around $800. Which is crazy to me because I bought a NM raw copy for $60 had it graded and got a 9.4 on it this spring.

 

I wish there was a way to just plug in a few variables and get a price of value. But that will never happen.

[SW3D]

Dear BOF,

 

Thanks for the reply.

 

You're approach to price valuations for higher grades is very sound.

 

Intuitively, I've been utilizing a similar approach, but always felt that may not be enough.

 

I honestly would like Overstreet to expand on its current grading and pricing and begin to include higher grades with their raw values. Then I think it would take out the guessing game in all this.

 

Thanks once again for posting your opinions, as well as your positive state of mind.

 

All the best,

 

SW3D