Did this book really just flip this fast?

[Tony S]

It's a reasonable observation. The tipping point may come in a few years when -- as I expect -- super hero movies no longer top the charts. If that genre fades, I think there will be significant fallout in the comic market.

 

It could be a long way to the bottom for books currently selling in the mid-five figures and above. Particularly since, as you note, those prices appear to be supported more by continuing rounds of flipping than by books being absorbed long term into collections.

 

Two counterpoints to consider before the sky starts falling.

 

a) Collectors are always flipping books as a means to get to the books they want. Once they get to something they want, it stops being flipped. There's someone who's going to want that ASM #1, it just hasn't reached them yet.

 

b) Books were worth lots of money before the movies became a factor. I'd venture to say that they'll probably still be worth 'a lot' after the movies stop being a factor as well.

 

 

Those are also reasonable observations. (I'm a very agreeable sort of person. )

 

But I would say with respect to a) -- I think this was CC's point -- that a lot of the flippers aren't actually collectors, so should they high tail it out of the hobby, there will be an effect on prices. That is, even if a book eventually lands in the hands of a collector after multiple flips, the collector sees the high price he paid as reasonable only because all of the churning by flippers made it seem reasonable.

 

Here's an analogy to the U.S. housing market. A family might have bought a house in 2005 in Las Vegas, San Diego, Miami, etc. for, say, $400,000 in a neighborhood where a few years before houses were selling for $200,000. They aren't flippers; they actually want to live in the house. But $400,000 seemed like a reasonable price to them only because of the artificial churning of the market caused by flippers, subprime borrowers, and so on. When the artificial churning disappeared, prices plummeted.

 

With respect to b), many books were doing well -- although, not this well (think AF 15) -- before the movies. The broader point is that we are in a highly favorable moment in time for comic book prices: boomers in their max income years, super heroes ascendant in movies/TV, comics widely seen as an "investment," and so on. And we have had one heck of a long bull market in prices.

 

Maybe it will go on indefinitely and 20 years from now mid grade AF 15s will be $100K books. But man, I wouldn't want to risk serious money on the proposition. I would say it's a least as likely that the prices of most key books will be lower 10 years from now as it is that they will be higher.

 

Do you actually know anyone - or lots of anyones - that flip collectible comics that DO NOT collect them? I do not. All of the people I know that buy books short term just to resell (which dealers do all the time - where exactly is the line between flipper and part time dealer?) are collectors. They do some buying and selling on the side to help pay for what can be an expensive hobby. When Valiant was hot back in the day and publishers were glutting the market with manufactured collectibles, there was a brief time where sports cards dealers entered the market. But they ran off with the implosion.

 

If you look at the sports card and coin hobbies - hobbies similar in that they to had grading and slabbing long before comics - the lesson is the really good stuff not only holds it's value, it goes up. I don't think there is any chance at all that AF15 will take a huge hit in price. Certainly not in mid grade or better. Most certainly not in high grade.

 

There is a risk with books that are easily attainable - and the risk is greatest with moderns. I will make a similar point again. I do not know a single soul that has decided to go spend big money on Walking Dead books that was not already a comic book collector. IMHO it's collectors flipping this stuff to each other, not outsiders running up the price. Nova jumped from $50 in CGC 9.4 to $120 because a lot of collectors added it to their "want to own" list. Not because people off the street are buying it. People on the street don't even know a Guardians of the Galaxy movie is coming out, never mind a list of likely characters for the movie.

 

If and when they quit making Spider-man, Batman, Superman, Iron Man, Captain America and Thor movies, the first and key issues of those books are going to continue to be valuable as they had lots of interest before the movies. When the WD series ends - and end it will someday, even Gunsmoke and Andy Griffith eventually quit - that material will likely drop in price. And I don't mean to pick on WD. I could point out other examples, like Nova 1 and Hulk 271

 

All of this said, I'd love to see AF 15, ASM 1, TOS 39, JIM 83, Showcase 4 and 22 and Flash 105 (the list is much longer) go back to 1999 prices. I'd go on a spending spree. When the stock market crashed in 2008, smart investors like Warren Buffet were out there buying. I remember a quote from him early in 2009 explaining all of his purchases. "When it's raining gold, don't go outside with a teacup. Bring a bucket."

 

So bring on the crash. Just don't expect me and others to bail you out if your holding a bunch of WD and the like. We'll be wanting the good stuff.

[Sqeggs]

Once again, none of us can accurately forecast the future of comic book prices because there are too many variables involved. Econ 101 tells us, though, that prices only go up if demand increases. Where is the increased demand for comics going to come from?

 

Current prices are the result of a long bull market propelled by factors that are not going to be repeated: baby boomers entering their prime earning years, expansion of auction houses (particularly HA), the founding of CGC, the spread of the idea of comics as good investments, and the huge popularity of superhero movies.

 

I have no idea what the breakdown is among dealers, collector-dealers, flippers, etc. But the willingness to pay nosebleed prices for a lot of books has to depend in large part, doesn't it, on the belief that prices will only go up from here. If prices take a significant, sustained dip and that belief collapses, it could be a long way to the bottom.

 

I'm not saying that AF 15 will be worthless in 10 years. Far from it. I am saying that AF 15 prices are as likely to be lower in 10 years as they are to be higher. So anyone buying a copy at today's prices -- particularly anyone who thinks they are investing for the long term -- is taking on a lot of risk.