Prediction: The movie announcement spike is going to lose effectiveness

[Westy Steve]

OK, here's the situation. At the last show I attended, I had to swap out my Strange Tales #110 to facilitate the purchase of a ASM 1. The ASM is whipped....but dangit, it's mine now! But before I left the convention, I decided I would hate it if I sold off my Strange Tales #110 and someone announced a movie about Dr. Strange. So I managed to find a beat up copy and I purchased it, not on speculation, but because Dr. Strange is so dang cool and a character I like to "own".

 

Why my paranoid purchase? Because I had a JIM 83 that I "temporarily" sold off to fund something else before the movie hype drove the cost way up. Same with a TOS39. So now I'm paranoid to sell off any key for fear of a movie announcement making them too expensive to buy back.

 

So then I started thinking...Hmm...maybe I should chase after books that already had a "movie pop", and dropped back to reasonable levels. So a "family purchase" for my kids recently included a pretty nice ASM 14. Then a week later, I heard that the Green Goblin will be in the next Spiderman movie.

 

But then I also read that they're trying to prep that movie arc for the Sinister Six, so there are other characters who already had their movies who may have another movie...will those pop again too? Should I chase them, or will I overpay?

 

Then it occurred to me that they are making so many damn movies now (because they are uber-profitable) that trying to predict who might be in what movie is getting to be difficult. I'm seeing that it's getting to the point where there are so many different movies coming with so many different characters that my money (and your money) is getting spread too thin. Yes, I like the idea of going into the Dr. Strange movie secure in the knowledge that I have a Strange Tales #110. I don't know why I like that...maybe I'm greedy...maybe I feel more connected with the character...but I do like that feeling. But it's getting to be impossible to have the feeling anymore. So many movies, so many characters. Perhaps I should just focus on what I like the most, without concerning myself about what movies are being made, and try not to overpay due to movie hype.

 

What do you guys think?

[sd2416]

what?

 

[gyro-1]

Movie announcement spike HAS lost its effectiveness

Here today on Netflix tomorrow for 99 cents

[Dr. Balls]

The movie spike is definitely not lasting as long as it used to - movie/tv deals seem to spike prices for a couple weeks rather than a few months now. Currently, X-Factor #5 and #6 is spiking with the Apocalypse formal announcement, but will probably ease up in the next week or so.

 

Preacher is doing the same thing: TV announcement, prices skyrocket. They are now working their way back down from the whorehouse prices of a few weeks ago ($450+ for a 9.8 on the 'Bay). Still worth WAY more than they were a month ago, though - and will continue to be. I think Preacher is a going to be a hot prospect if the tv show is made. Not Walking Dead hot because the print runs were much more sizeable, but it will become popular, and with only 66 issues, collectors will be looking to complete the run.

 

Silver Samurai and other one-movie villains see a surge and then drop after the film comes out. I think those books are the most volatile, because there isn't that much interest in the character afterwards (unless they do something with him in the franchise). And it could go down to just above previous levels.

 

I remember looking for a nice IM 55 after Thanos showed up and that spike made it impossible and it lasted for months, and I ended up giving up on it.

[fantastic_four]

Movie announcement spike HAS lost its effectiveness

Here today on Netflix tomorrow for 99 cents

 

They sell key vintage comics on Netflix for 99 cents? I had no idea...why have I been paying so much for them on ComicLink and Heritage all this time?!?!

[backtomarvel]

Sounds like you may have a case of something akin to 'flipper's remorse?'

 

 

 

[Dr. Balls]

Perhaps I should just focus on what I like the most, without concerning myself about what movies are being made, and try not to overpay due to movie hype.

 

I think you have to concern yourself with what movies are being made because it's inflating the value of certain books - and those books don't ever come back down completely to their non-movie hype levels. Sometimes there is saturation and you can pick and choose your grade, but it still retains some value over previous levels.

 

If you need a book, you might want to pick it up before it becomes a movie commodity, otherwise you're almost certainly paying more for it down the line.

[Westy Steve]

what?

 

Heh, yeah, I kind of rambled there...but the other guys seemed to figure out what I'm saying.

 

I was just observing that the spike in the price of comics that occur when a movie is announced seem to be coming all the time now. And...as others observed...they aren't as long-lasting as they were. But, on the other hand, they can be frustrating for people like me who are constantlying stiving to pick up key books. So my conclusion is that I'm just not going to sell anything, and focus on the books that haven't spiked, or spiked a long time ago and slid back. I predict that the size of the spike will become less over time, and the quickness that a book backslides will also increase (meaning...books will pop, but slide back quicker now). I think this will happen because we are being spread thin on the books to try to snap up so that we can sit in the movie seat, secure in the knowledge that we have the characters first appearance.

 

Also, as one of the posters here pointed out, it seems like the more important a character is, the more staying power that "spike" seems to have. I don't think prices on JIM83 and TOS39 will ever come back, but I did notice that prices on Spiderman bad-guys did eventually slide backward.

 

So my conclusion is that it's best just to go after what floats your boat and try not to buy into the hype where you can.

 

I wanted to know how these spikes are afffecting you guys, how are you dealing with them? Are you trying to predict them and play them? Avoid them altogether? Early Avengers appearances are expensive now, but early Fantastic Fours are not...how is that affecting which of those you'll buy?

[ThoseBackPages]

TLDR

[Westy Steve]

Sorry. I'm sure if you look around you'll find something befitting your attention span.

 

[slym2none]

Here's a whiny little downside to the movie spike as it pertains to the weather - I bought up a few X-Factors right after the movie was announced, some 5s for as little as $1 and a 6 for $9.99, and they either haven't been shipped yet or are delayed due to the weather. (I checked the tracking numbers and sure enough, the books are all located in the storm's worst-hit areas.)

 

If the bubble pops too soon, I won't be able to flip these for as good a profit!

 

::

 

 

 

-slym

[Dr. Balls]

TLDR

 

Why would you ever post something like that? You must be padding your post count.

 

Sorry. I'm sure if you look around you'll find something befitting your attention span.

 

[Dr. Balls]

Here's a whiny little downside to the movie spike as it pertains to the weather - I bought up a few X-Factors right after the movie was announced, some 5s for as little as $1 and a 6 for $9.99, and they either haven't been shipped yet or are delayed due to the weather. (I checked the tracking numbers and sure enough, the books are all located in the storm's worst-hit areas.)

 

If the bubble pops too soon, I won't be able to flip these for as good a profit!

 

::

 

-slym

 

I offered a BA/MA mystery box about two weeks ago for $20. I put about 15 comics in it, and guess what one of them was? X-Factor 5 in NM.

 

I stay pretty on top of this stuff, and I can't believe I stuck that in there. However, the boardie who bought it probably feels good about it, though!

[Mark 1]

 

I remember looking for a nice IM 55 after Thanos showed up and that spike made it impossible and it lasted for months, and I ended up giving up on it.

 

I sold my IM 55 after the announcement and I thought...I can pick one up once things cool off. No such luck. IM 55 has not come down from what I can tell.

 

I wish it would....it's the only book missing from my run

[Mephisto]

I'm not sure how much ASM 14 will rise. It spiked well back in 2002 but some of the villains tied to the newer ASM franchise haven't been surging like one might expect. Lizard went up a little but not much.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Perhaps I should just focus on what I like the most, without concerning myself about what movies are being made, and try not to overpay due to movie hype.

 

What do you guys think?

Buy the comics before the movie hype.

Buy more than one copy.

One to keep and one to flip!

Also this movie hype spike seems to basically only work for Marvel and DC superheroes?

-Oblivion

- R.I.P.D.

- Red 2

- 2 Guns

- Elysium

- Kick-AZZ 2

were all movies that came out this year based on comic books, and not one of them comic book movies caused a spike in their back issues.

Not one.

The spike only seems to work for Marvel and DC superheroes who get film appearances, and The Walking Dead characters who get TV appearances.

 

[miraclemet]

If you are just trying to collect keys, zig when they zag.

 

There are plenty of keys that aren't being movie inflated. Get those now, and wait to get the movie inflated keys later when prices have settled down and the movie is in everyone's rear view mirror.

 

Avengers? Get Avengers #8 Kang the Conqueror's first appearance

X-men? X-men #8 The Juggernaut's first appearance

Fantastic Four? FF#13: 1st Red Ghost, FF#20: 1st Molecule Man, FF#21: 1st Sgt. Fury crossing over into Marvel U.

 

 

none of these have any heat due to movies, but are still keys (or maybe 2nd keys) in most collectors eyes.

[miraclemet]

 

I remember looking for a nice IM 55 after Thanos showed up and that spike made it impossible and it lasted for months, and I ended up giving up on it.

 

I sold my IM 55 after the announcement and I thought...I can pick one up once things cool off. No such luck. IM 55 has not come down from what I can tell.

 

I wish it would....it's the only book missing from my run

 

Well the movie hasnt even come out yet, everyone is in "hold" mode.

 

Wait till the movie comes out and there'll be a flood of them, just wait until people start getting desperate to finish their flip and buy one at a nice price.

 

 

[Mark 1]

 

I remember looking for a nice IM 55 after Thanos showed up and that spike made it impossible and it lasted for months, and I ended up giving up on it.

 

I sold my IM 55 after the announcement and I thought...I can pick one up once things cool off. No such luck. IM 55 has not come down from what I can tell.

 

I wish it would....it's the only book missing from my run

 

Well the movie hasnt even come out yet, everyone is in "hold" mode.

 

Wait till the movie comes out and there'll be a flood of them, just wait until people start getting desperate to finish their flip and buy one at a nice price.

 

 

That's true. When is that damn movie coming out already?!

[HeroX]

X-men? X-men #812 The Juggernaut's first appearance

 

FIFY

 

Juggs first is X-Men #12, with #13 being a great follow up issue for the two issue arc.

 

X-Men #8 is the first appearance of Unus the Untouchable.