THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[alexgross.com]

On 11/7/2021 at 9:25 AM, woowoo said:

 I have had so many Fantasy 15s from 1982 to 1998 and all where under 1000. I was going to buy a nice 4.5 2018 for 31k but just new this book was to common to pay that kind of money. I did have someone that had a 3.5 he would have took 15k for last year and i thought if it was a 4.0 ya but a 3.5 does not cut it for a silver age book now look. I guess these common books are everywhere but people still want them.

last year a 3.5 was minimum 17k. by late in the year it was 20k. maybe you should subscribe to gpa or gocollect next time. 

[lou_fine]

On 11/7/2021 at 3:42 PM, Math Teacher said:

I guess it's painfully clear to someone who lives and breaths comics, but, if you asked the average Joe on the street, my guess is that they would think the lowest price per point would be for the lowest grades and the highest price per point would be with the highest grades. That seems to fit the definition of counterintuitive.

counterintuitive: contrary to intuition or to common-sense expectation (but still true).

Looks like you are working on the theory that price per point is a straight-line relationship which would be an incorrect assumption on your part. 

Even Gator who was one of the original boardies to come up with this "price per point" concept states quite clearly that it is best used for books ranging from 2.0 up to 6.0; since prices on entry level books and HG books tend to be a lot more volatile.  If it was a linear relationship across the entire condition spectrum, you would see uber HG 9.8 graded copies of books selling for only 2+ percentage premium over the 9.6 graded copies which is clearly not the case.  At the other end, you would also not see a raw Poor condition copy of Action 13 sell for almost $15K several years ago or multiple copies of 1.0 graded copies of 'Tec 31 sell in the $low to mid $40K's price range during the past few years. 

From my personal POV, it is common sense to think more about label chasing collectors when it comes to the high end portion of the marketplace and then budget minded collectors who just wants to have an affordable copy of the book for their personal collection. 

[Math Teacher]

On 11/7/2021 at 10:35 PM, lou_fine said:

Looks like you are working on the theory that price per point is a straight-line relationship which would be an incorrect assumption on your part. 

As a math teacher, I am fully aware that this cannot be modeled by a linear equation. I could use statistics to determine an exponential regression to determine the values, but that's too much work, even for me. But, based on our discussion, an exponential model would still produce unreliable results. I imagine a model could be constructed, but that would involve looking at thousands and thousands of data points. Even though I like working with numbers, this is not a task that I am willing to pursue.

Here's how I deal with it. Let's say I have a CGC 4.0 that I need to evaluate. I try to use data points that are within +- 2 points. Therefore, I only at grades 2.0 - 6.0. Also, I only prices that occurred within the past two months. For this specific book I mentioned above, this is what I did: I only looked at books that had been sold during September and October, and I limited the grades I looked at to 2.0 - 6.0. If I can't find a single data point during those months and within my range, I might be willing to expand the months and range I look at. But I do my best to avoid using data points for the high grade books (8.0 or higher), along with avoiding prices that didn't occur during 2021. When there is a sale in September/October of a CGC 4.0, it makes my life much easier.

I am not claiming that my method is the only correct method to do this. It is just the method I use. Besides, I am just getting an estimate, not computing the price to the nearest cent. If you choose to use a different method, that's fine with me.

Edited November 8, 2021 by Math Teacher

[Sauce Dog]

On 11/7/2021 at 4:45 PM, gadzukes said:

Do I dare ask what anyone would value this 2.0 GLOD on this thread or will I be pounced upon with pitchforks and torches?

I find it hard to understand the value of Green Labels since they rarely come up at auction.

I"M NOT LOOKING TO SELL IT, I'm just trying to understand value.

I was thinking $20k, but with the 1.8 Blue that just sold for $33k... maybe more.

I would honestly consider getting this conserved to re-attach the cover, as I have seen some qualified books (for married covers) loose the 'married' designation after conservation (and go to a blue/grey label with a grade bump).

[PKJ]

On 11/7/2021 at 11:26 PM, alexgross.com said:

last year a 3.5 was minimum 17k. by late in the year it was 20k. maybe you should subscribe to gpa or gocollect next time. 

I noticed that as well, I was looking at adding an additional copy in that range last year  thinking it would be good to have a second to trade or sale. Bought more APPL instead, right now that is proving to be the lesser return of the two.

Edited November 8, 2021 by PKJ

[G.A.tor]

On 11/7/2021 at 11:35 PM, lou_fine said:

Looks like you are working on the theory that price per point is a straight-line relationship which would be an incorrect assumption on your part. 

Even Gator who was one of the original boardies to come up with this "price per point" concept states quite clearly that it is best used for books ranging from 2.0 up to 6.0; since prices on entry level books and HG books tend to be a lot more volatile.  If it was a linear relationship across the entire condition spectrum, you would see uber HG 9.8 graded copies of books selling for only 2+ percentage premium over the 9.6 graded copies which is clearly not the case.  At the other end, you would also not see a raw Poor condition copy of Action 13 sell for almost $15K several years ago or multiple copies of 1.0 graded copies of 'Tec 31 sell in the $low to mid $40K's price range during the past few years. 

From my personal POV, it is common sense to think more about label chasing collectors when it comes to the high end portion of the marketplace and then budget minded collectors who just wants to have an affordable copy of the book for their personal collection. 

thanks Lou...but not "one of", but "the" original PPP concept originator makes me feel more special  

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 11/9/2021 at 12:24 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

I would be super happy pwning a TEC27

Would this involve sneaking up behind it and crouching down while a friend gives it a good shove?

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 11/9/2021 at 1:21 PM, G.A.tor said:

thanks Lou...but not "one of", but "the" original PPP concept originator makes me feel more special  

I'm just glad to hear it's not intended to work above 6.0, because I'm not sure everyone who uses it understands this.

[G.A.tor]

On 11/9/2021 at 1:23 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I'm just glad to hear it's not intended to work above 6.0, because I'm not sure everyone who uses it understands this.

there has always  been an "entry " level, where sometimes a .5 will sell same as a 1.5, depending on whats available etc...and higher grade has always behaved with more exponential quality...but when I started this in 2001 at sdcc, it was more for me to know , "ok, I can sell a hulk 1, in 4.0 for 4K...so as long as I see a copy that is less than 1K a grade point, I can buy to resell"....then I created little notes for me...it worked great on most all books to about 6.0 and then I did a 1.5x factor etc...thats how the entire "price per point" terminology came about...

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 11/9/2021 at 1:34 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

I meant owning.

Oh?

[Pantodude]

  Make him sweat!    now to go check my posts for typos

Edited November 9, 2021 by Pantodude

[peewee22]

On 11/9/2021 at 12:44 PM, G.A.tor said:

there has always  been an "entry " level, where sometimes a .5 will sell same as a 1.5, depending on whats available etc...and higher grade has always behaved with more exponential quality...but when I started this in 2001 at sdcc, it was more for me to know , "ok, I can sell a hulk 1, in 4.0 for 4K...so as long as I see a copy that is less than 1K a grade point, I can buy to resell"....then I created little notes for me...it worked great on most all books to about 6.0 and then I did a 1.5x factor etc...thats how the entire "price per point" terminology came about...

Rick invented the “price per point” (idea) term. 

[PKJ]

@G.A.tor Rick when looking at books for sale.

[Pantodude]

On 11/9/2021 at 1:44 PM, G.A.tor said:

.it worked great on most all books to about 6.0

On 11/7/2021 at 1:45 AM, Batmanis#1 said:

There is still a 6.0 up for grabs on CL at 150k buy it now highest offer 120k.

Maybe we learn soon enough whether PPP predicts AF15 in 6.0, with the backdrop that historically a 4.0 was less than half value of 6.0, although closer to half in recent years.  4.0 sold last month for $75K, and the ask on that 6.0 on CL Exch is precisely $150K.  Perhaps no coincidence.  .  

Edited November 10, 2021 by Pantodude
bored

[lou_fine]

On 11/9/2021 at 10:21 AM, G.A.tor said:

thanks Lou...but not "one of", but "the" original PPP concept originator makes me feel more special  

Hey Rick;

Although I was 95% certain that it was you who had originated the PPP concept and shared it with the rest of us here through your ongoing posts, I guess I just wanted to play it safe in case there might have also been somebody else that I was not aware of.  

[G.A.tor]

On 11/9/2021 at 5:32 PM, lou_fine said:

Hey Rick;

Although I was 95% certain that it was you who had originated the PPP concept and shared it with the rest of us here through your ongoing posts, I guess I just wanted to play it safe in case there might have also been somebody else that I was not aware of.  

Appreciate your acknowledgment none the less 

[Primetime]

On 11/9/2021 at 10:44 AM, G.A.tor said:

there has always  been an "entry " level, where sometimes a .5 will sell same as a 1.5, depending on whats available etc...and higher grade has always behaved with more exponential quality...but when I started this in 2001 at sdcc, it was more for me to know , "ok, I can sell a hulk 1, in 4.0 for 4K...so as long as I see a copy that is less than 1K a grade point, I can buy to resell"....then I created little notes for me...it worked great on most all books to about 6.0 and then I did a 1.5x factor etc...thats how the entire "price per point" terminology came about...

I remember that 2001 SDCC…was that the same year you spoke with Bob in person about the ppp concept?

Edited November 10, 2021 by Primetime

[G.A.tor]

On 11/9/2021 at 7:40 PM, Primetime said:

I remember that 2001 SDCC…was that the same year you spoke with Bob in person about the ppp concept?

Might have been the next year. But memory fades. However you were one of the first I mentioned it too 

[piper]

On 11/2/2021 at 1:17 PM, fishbone said:

NOOOOOOooooooooooooo!     And you are from Edmonton ! You must have met him numerous times, no ?

I'm originally from Windsor, Ontario, so definitely no Gretzky sightings.  I have met a few players over the years: Ted Lindsay, Tie Domi, Lanny McDonald...

For more recent players, I've seen Taylor Hall but no McFavid sightings yet.

(I'm a Leafs Fan )

 

[Subby1938]

Well then you could appreciate the best player in the world McDavid and thanks for Hyman! That’s why those Leafs will never win lord Stanley !!!

Edited November 10, 2021 by Subby1938