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THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB
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Started by HarveySwick,

14,484 posts in this topic

namisgr

namisgr

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 1/12/2022 at 11:23 PM, Jaydogrules said:

I only deal in facts and what's actually happened, not what "might" happen or what something "could" be. 

The fact is that books like Action #1 and Detective #27 that are so rare in high grade condition that their copy numbers can be counted using one hand, and because of their historical importance, the characters they introduce, and their extreme scarcity are the hobby's most valuable by a wide margin.  And the fact is that ultrarare books come up for sale far less often than high grade AF #15s do.  And the fact is that when ultrarare books do come up for sale, they often change hands in private transactions, and they sometimes aren't CGC graded copies.

As someone referred to it earlier, you're comparing apples and orangutans.  And trying to make the molehill of a comparison into a mountain.

Edited by namisgr
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Get Marwood & I

Get Marwood & I

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Posted

There hasn't been an actual AF15 posted for a bit.

Here's mine again, which hopefully one day will enhance my retirement :)

978909690_AF15Scan1.thumb.jpg.1d9375b8928fd1a0c024941ead9abd2d.jpg

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Get Marwood & I

Get Marwood & I

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On 1/13/2022 at 3:37 PM, gadzukes said:

YES! Your retirement will definitely be enhanced!  Wow that's nice!  Can we please see the back cover too.

 

A new pipe and slippers seems eminently achievable on current rates :)

I haven't got the BC scan to hand. Will post it when I finally send it off to the Tomb Mongers. We can all have a guess then. Wish me luck... 

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Pantodude

Pantodude

Posted
Posted (edited)

I was hoping to just dart in and out, but this dumpster fire needed more actual data before it peters out!   To be clear, despite my affinity for data-based discussion, I actually prioritize historical significance over valuation in my PC, consistent with my staunch support (in this forum’s ranking threads, anywhere really) for DC grails like SC4 and  BB28, but also Avengers 1 and even IH1 before it caught fire.  I have also put my $ where my mouth is, owning SC4, BB28, JLA1, etc, along with everything great that is Marvel.  No regrets (far from it!) b/c I’m a collector first and foremost, and everything has done well enough anyway.  Can't be too greedy, right?

I’m just reporting numbers because folks have remarked that there has been too much speculation about potential sales of slabs and/or even potential raws.  So let’s get real!  Assuming big money prioritizes return on investment (a safe bet?), there is an emerging pattern supported by actual sales of slabs in the high and some low grades despite the paucity of data for GA books.   Before you shoot the messenger, this is what it is (using just GPA) and could change, of course.  But make no mistake, a trend is emerging, temporary or not.  Don't cheat by jumping ahead to the conclusion.  I'll know.  :devil:

Action Comics 1 (43 blue census) vs AF15 (2269 blue census)

AC1 in 8.5 (highest known graded public sale) sold in April 2021 for $3.25 million.  That exact book sold for $1.75 million in 2013, and an 8.5 sold in 2010 for $1.5 million, so it hardly doubled since 2010. An AC1 in 3.0 sold just last month for $1.6 million, compared to $300K in 2010 for "only" a 5x gain in that grade.

Compare to AF15 in 9.6 (which also happens to be the highest known graded public sale) and 3.0 since 2010.  A 9.6 sold for $3.6 million in September. No 2010 data for a 9.6, but it sold for $1.1 million in 2011.  So a 3.5x increase for AF15 in highest grade since 2011 (compared to only 2x for the AC1 since 2010).   This month, an AF15 in 2.5 sold for $45.5K and a 2.0 sold for $38.4K, but a 3.0 last sold in November 2021 for $43K, so let’s use that.  A 3.0 sold for $5K in 2010, so a 9x increase for AF15 in 3.0 (compared to only 5x gain for AC1 same grade since 2010). 

So AF15 has appreciated much more quickly than AC1 since 2010 in both these high and low grades.  It may be advisable to digest that for a sec before proceeding.

Captain America Comics #1 (88 blue census)

Unlike AC1, which tops out at 9.0, Cap1 has a 9.8, two 9.4s, two 9.2s, and a 9.0, so we could just directly compare same high grades between Cap1 and AF15.  Most recently, Cap1 in high grade sold as an 8.5 in January 2021 for $384K, compared to $95.6K in 2009, for a 4x increase in 12 years. 

A1.0 Cap1 sold for $70K in September 2021, compared to $36K in July 2017, for less than a 2x increase in those 4 years.

AF15 in 8.5 sold for $707K in September 2021 (so twice Cap1 same grade same year!), compared to $104K in 2009 (over 10% higher than Cap1 same grade same year, even way back in 2009), which is almost a 7x increase for AF15 in 8.5 since 2009 (compared to “only” 4x increase for Cap1 same grade).  Who’d a thought?

AF15 in 1.0 sold for $29K in December 2021 and $15.6K in November 2021, compared to $7200 in July 2017, for a 2x (or 4x, if use the $29K figure from Dec) increase in those four years (compared to < 2x increase for Cap1 same grade).  

Detective Comics 27 (36 blue census)

Only grade 7.0 has both a relatively recent sale and a sale in 2010 or so.  A 7.0 sold for $1.5 million in November 2020 and $493K in 2010 for a 3x increase. 

Ignoring the most recent sale of $241.5K last month, AF15 in 7.0 sold for a “measly” $110K and $81K in March 2020, with the next sale in June 2021 for $162K, so let’s approximate $125K for November 2020?  A 7.0 fetched 30K in 2009 and $39.5K in 2011, so let’s say $35K for 2010?   That was about a 3.5x increase, slightly besting even Tec27’s performance in 7.0 since 2010.   

If you use the $95K average for AF15 in 7.0 in March 2020 instead of $125K, AF15 in 7.0 still increased by 2.7x since 2010, almost as much as Tec27 since 2010 in relative terms.  Either way, AF15 overtook even Tec27 in this grade’s appreciation.

Conclusion

In short (you mean I could have avoided typing 750 words!), it matters less which book is currently the most expensive and/or rarest if popularity continues to affect (dominate?) relative valuations.  In our collective consciousness, the GA greats started out expensive and are likely to remain expensive.  But if impartial big money prioritizes ROI, where Spidey apparently outperforms GA greats at this time, AF15 in all grades but especially the highest grades will continue to bridge the gap with the GA greats and could become the most expensive book bar none (whether or not adjusted for inflation!). 

[Now back to your regularly scheduled programming. :foryou:]

Edited by Pantodude
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KCOComics

KCOComics

Posted
Posted
On 1/13/2022 at 1:57 PM, MattTheDuck said:

For those interested, we're about to have a 6.0 AC 1 and an AF 7.0 up for auction at Heritage.  Pre-Live bidding, the AC 1 was at $2.35 million, the AF 15 a very affordable $216,000.

That would almost make it seem like the AC1 is worth more than an AF15. Go figure. 

 

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Pantodude

Pantodude

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 1/13/2022 at 2:17 PM, MattTheDuck said:

The "live bidding" section increased the AC 1 bid by 35 percent, the AF 15 bid by 22 percent.

Honestly, I am a little surprised these finished as low as they did.  

Me too. I play devil's advocate often, but I was expecting anything with the AC1, so a bit underwhelming, agreed.  The AF15 is significantly higher than just last month, so is that really underwhelming ($252K vs $241.5K)?

Edited by Pantodude
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