Black Cat Mystery Comics #50 CGC 9.4

[*paull*]

I don't really have a read on the future of GA collecting. This I know: major keys (Action #1, Tec #27, etc.) will not be affected in the foreseeable future. Classic pre-code and superhero covers will always be desirable. I do see the possibility of non-keys dropping in value. I think we're due for a correction in this area, particularly with pre-code horror non-keys. Super-hero books non-keys are also a possibility.

[precodekeith]

Cool, man. However, I'm talking about long term comics collecting, like 25 years from now. Will guys like us (who will be in our 50's by then) be the last generation of collectors, or will their be enough teens and pre-pubes of today to pick up the gauntlet and continue the trend of ever-increasing back issue costs?

 

Like I said, I'm going to guess that by the time you and I get into our 40's and 50's, the "older" long time collectors will be passing away or selling off for whatever reason, creating a situation of greater supply than demand for the average GA/SA book and probably lowering prices except in the situation of true historic HG books...

 

I just don't see the youth reading comics anymore. Video games are all-consuming for the majority of them. Maybe others have a different view? I'd like to know!

[*paull*]

That's a good question. I think there will be enough interest to keep the keys and classic covers consistently increasing in value, but I see the separation between these keys and non-keys eventually getting much wider. For instance, you may see books like Witches Tales #25 and Black Cat Mystery #50 continue to increase, but the non-keys facing a long-term correction. These commons simply won't have enough demand if young blood doesn't come into the hobby.

[shrunkenhead]

Keith, I think you're right that days of comic reading might sadly be coming to end in another generation or two, or at least the numbers will continue to get significantly smaller. But I don't think that speaks to a demise for comic collecting, which is a totally different animal. The notion (often incorrect) that "all old comics are valuable" is a myth that is too deeply ingrained in the popular consciousness. I don't see that mentality ever going away, and frustrating as that might be, I think it means that the value of our books won't diminish even though the readers go away. Even if Marvel and DC went under and no more moderns are ever printed again, I think there's a very strong future for comic collectablilty, with new blood regularly entering the hobby.

 

People collect all kinds of stuff that "they just don't make anymore." Why should comics be any different?

[*paull*]

Shrunk, what do you think of keys vs. non-keys? Do you see non-keys suffering in the long-term?

[shiverbones]

i hate to say it, but i think non "keys" are toast. Now in horror "key" to me is a loose term that describes any good cover. Any Ajax issue for example has a great cover and will sell. Most st. john or ace, or any run of the mill horror will just sit at a closer to $10 GD to $45VF sort of range. I think its going to be like pulps are now. Very few people collect pulps, but as long as there is a skeleton or a pretty girl in trouble, they still sell for high dollars in low grade. Horror has always had a market and will continue to for the unforseeable future. I think super hero non keys are much more common and more subject to continual deflation. The definition for key there is much stricter and the dollars at stake much higher. who knows. I agree there will always be people who seek out the obscure, and I think those people will have a much easier time price wise in the future.

[Grimstarman]

2) As anyone that is following CGC sales knows, the action has progressively gotten to the new books. Early on some GA was hot, Silver-Age is still pretty hot but the majority of the boom in prices over the past few years is in Bronze-Age books. I see this trend continuing (maybe to early 80's books, a la copper).

 

But these days the price of gold continues to breakout.

It would seem then that GA comics will follow suit and do this as well.

 

Who wants an X-men #6 with 1000's of copies in existence when you have Flash Comics #6 existing with less than 10 copies. I'll take the Flash at 20 times the cost of the Xmen everytime.

 

Wisdom comes with age and the current bronze collectors will obtain that wisdom.

 

[Grimstarman]

Out of sight out of mind, yes, but I don't believe that scarcity equates to an automatic decline in liquidity. Not in this hobby, anyway. Collectors love owning something that no one else has, some unusual, esoteric treasure or trinket. That's why highgrade GA fits the bill for so many with the bucks to spend on them. You don't need a movie based on Blue Bolt, because that's not where the appeal lies. It's a forgotten relic from a bygone age, like those Indian nickels or whatever it is that the coinees go crazy about.

 

The market is cyclical. Highgrade GA WILL come back. Classic covers are key. Condition across the board is key. Now's the time to buy. 'Nuff said.

 

I strongly agree and I'm buying Golden Age DC comics like a crazy man.

 

Brian

[shrunkenhead]

Paull, I think condition is really the thing when it comes to golden age non-keys. The farther away the book is from being a key (unless it's oddity value lends it additional creedence), the higher the grade needs to be in order to command a nice price. If you were to call a dealer and say, "I have 100 GA books slabbed at 9.2 and up, but absolutely none of them are keys", I'm pretty sure they wouldn't hang up on you.

 

I do think there needs to be a correction in price in lower grades in GA, SA, and BA alike. OS's valuation system is terribly faulty in this regard, as the jumps from one grade to another are generally presented as having an identical price climb (2.0 to 4.0, 6.0 to 8.0, etc). We all know that's not how it really works. So when people see that gold in 2.0 or 4.0 is selling for way under guide (because OS starts gold prices high, generally), they're likely to point the finger and say "see, gold is dead." But that's just not accurate, IMO.

 

But for exceptionally highgrade gold, keys and non-keys alike, I see a healthy future. It's the age of disposable comics, so naturally there aren't going to be as many keys! Publishers weren't operating with that kind of mentality (i.e. "we'll kill somebody in this issue, that'll make it a key among collectors"). And consequently I think many GA collectors are often less concerned with "keys." The condition game becomes a greater factor for some collectors, as it's tougher to find books in highgrade than it is to find keys in low to midgrade.

 

Comic collectability was a foreign concept in the "golden" days. Kids read 'em and swapped 'em, and then mom threw 'em away. To find NM comics (or even strict VFs) from the 30s, 40s, and 50s--the age before bags and boards--will always raise an eyebrow, regardless of what those books are.

[precodekeith]

 

Great points of view, Paul, Shrunk, and Shivs! Always interesting to hear what others think about this situation.

 

"We are all interested in the future because that is where we will be spending the rest of our lives....in the future..."

[shrunkenhead]

Yeah!!! Criswell!!

[*paull*]

I agree... interesting analysis from everyone!

 

It's intriguing how far off Overstreet is on pre-code horror classic covers (MM #12, WM #5, Horrific #3, BCM #50, etc.)... those books should be two to three times what they are in guide. Yet, Overstreet is way too high on non-keys, possibly two to three times too high.

 

I tend to think that not as much time is spent on analyzing pre-code horror books. At least on SA superhero material, guide is proportionally correct... a key selling for a multiple of a non-key. The guide doesn't seem so far off. But with pre-code horror, the difference between a key and non-key should be much more pronounced. At least with a SA Marvel book, a non-key may have been illustrated by Ditko, Kirby, Buscema, etc. and featured Captain America, The Hulk, Silver Surfer, etc. A non-key horror book has far, far less appeal than a key one, in my opinion.

 

Interesting point about the Farrell books that was brought up earlier. There were many great covers produced by that publisher, which makes a large amount of the books desirable, even if it's for the cover alone. Other publishers aren't so blessed... many of them have complete titles without a single stand-out cover.

[sfilosa]

2) As anyone that is following CGC sales knows, the action has progressively gotten to the new books. Early on some GA was hot, Silver-Age is still pretty hot but the majority of the boom in prices over the past few years is in Bronze-Age books. I see this trend continuing (maybe to early 80's books, a la copper).

 

But these days the price of gold continues to breakout.

It would seem then that GA comics will follow suit and do this as well.

 

Who wants an X-men #6 with 1000's of copies in existence when you have Flash Comics #6 existing with less than 10 copies. I'll take the Flash at 20 times the cost of the Xmen everytime.

 

Wisdom comes with age and the current bronze collectors will obtain that wisdom.

 

 

Problems with GA (and why I dont' see huge price movement).

 

1) Prices are already high for high grade keys and classic issues. When I mean high, I mean $500 or more (and that's in VF).

 

2) The chance of putting full runs together is next to impossible. Most collectors aren't interested in an impossible task.

 

3) There will actually be more HG increase in supply perecent wise, than in SA. Why, because over the next decade more and more GA collectors will accept CGC (many do not at this time). SA/BA already has wide acceptance. While this will add to the pool of books that are available, it will start to dimish that "truly rare" status that some books have (pretty much the only thing keeping non-key issues from fall, IMO).

 

Just the way I see it.

[ACME]

This is a very interesting conversation, especially since it's almost identical to the "Where are all the GA collectors" thread.

If you take a look at the '96 OS, the exact situation was happening in Golden Age. It was HOT, and everyone was wondering if it would die down. This is just the same cycle repeating itself; Silver and Bronze are driving prices up, and one of these days people are gonna say "GEE, it doesn't make much sense for an Amazing Fantasy 15 to be bringing as much as a Flash Comics 1", and the market will adjust itself. Granted, they are both important books, but look at the census!!

Dealers like JP and PGC know the adjustment is coming, and that's why they're pricing their books so high. Yet they still sell a decent amount. I think if there was true concern on GA crashing, JP would probably have taken the $50k he could've made on the Det #38 on E-Bay instead of raising the price another $50k on his website.

As for the younger generation, I'm 30 and all I collect is GA, and I know of quite a few collectors younger than I am. If future generations really lose interest in the desirable items of the past, then why hasn't the Mona Lisa ended up in a dumpster?

[sfilosa]

If you take a look at the '96 OS, the exact situation was happening in Golden Age. It was HOT, and everyone was wondering if it would die down.

 

Once again, I repeat:

 

What was hot in GA is the same stuff, Key books and Classic Covers. NOTHING ELSE. That's been the case for 20 years.

 

It's like anyone expecting low and mid-grade SA/BA books to become hot. It's not going to happen.

 

That's not to say GA is dead, it is not. That said, I don't think using Jay Parrino as an example of a "dealer" who knows what he is doing is a good example. The guy knows coins, not books and readily admit on a post that he probably OVERPAID for a lot of books (he said he was given bad advice).

 

Whenever prices increase significantly, it is because the INVESTMENT MENTALITY takes over. Be it a good thing or not, that's how it happens. And I don't ever see the Investor buying run of the mill GA books, EVER.

[*paull*]

Another reason why I don't see GA non-keys ("commons") increasing in value anytime soon (they are way overpriced now) is because GA collectors don't seem to want to collect runs nearly as much as SA collectors do. I came in to the pre-code horror arena looking for the classic covers and as a result MAY end up completing a couple short runs, but that's about it.

[sfilosa]

Another reason why I don't see GA non-keys ("commons") increasing in value anytime soon (they are way overpriced now) is because GA collectors don't seem to want to collect runs nearly as much as SA collectors do. I came in to the pre-code horror arena looking for the classic covers and as a result MAY end up completing a couple short runs, but that's about it.

 

A very good point. I would love to put a run or two together of some Atlas titles, but because I'm looking for CGC 8.0 or better, at this point it's impossible. Half the books in the run aren't available in that grade.

 

Once again, Keys and Classic Covers have a good chance of price escalation, but the more commorn issues will languish in obscurity.

 

While most SA/BA collectors do want the Key issues, they will buy the more common issues to put mini runs together. Once they have a few mini runs, then they want to complete the title even more. Just not going to happen with GA.

[precodekeith]

As for the younger generation, I'm 30 and all I collect is GA, and I know of quite a few collectors younger than I am. If future generations really lose interest in the desirable items of the past, then why hasn't the Mona Lisa ended up in a dumpster?

 

The Mona Lisa? That's a good line , but really, that's a little "apples and oranges" realistically.

 

I'm 33 myself, and I know there are GA collectors in their 20's as well. I think what has been meant by "younger generation" for the purpose of speculation in this thread is the generation of kids who are maybe 10 years old right now. People like you and I got into GA because FIRST and foremost we were into READING comics as kids or teens, most likely.

 

So, are there ENOUGH kids reading comics now to justify the trend of ever increasing back issue prices in, say, 25 years from now?

 

I think by that time there is going to be more supply than demand, as old time/ long-time hoarders start to dump their stuff into the market either by passing away or funding retirement, or whatever. It's going to be interesting.

 

I think most of us have agreed that HG, keys are always going to attract investment $$. Fact is MOST old back issues are neither. I think the mid-low market will adjust itself DOWN. (I know some of you would say this needs to happen NOW, not 25 years from now )

 

BTW: WELCOME TO THE BOARDS

[Shield]

While most SA/BA collectors do want the Key issues, they will buy the more common issues to put mini runs together. Once they have a few mini runs, then they want to complete the title even more. Just not going to happen with GA.

 

With all due respect, please don't speak for all of us golden age collectors. I'm 31, and almost had completed a complete run of MLJ books. I at one point have owned Archie 1-100, Pep 1-100, etc. and love putting together runs. Just finding the issues in decent shape without brittle pages or missing centerfolds is the fun. I recently picked up two Marvel Mystery's in the 30's, and that in fact made me want to complete the run. It's a feasable goal, even if I would have to buy an extensively restored #1 for $8,000. Silver and especially bronze have their pick of copies to get, and are only limited by how much they can afford. If I come across a Pep #23, I buy it, simply because I may not see another one for 2 years.

 

[shrunkenhead]

Shield, here here. I've been working on nice runs of Horrific, Weird Terror, Black Magic, Frankenstein (Prize), and to a slightly lesser extent Haunted Thrills. I expect to have complete sets of the Comic Media and Prize horror books at some point...

 

Just because these boards aren't populated by GA collectors working on runs doesn't mean they're not out there, and in significant numbers. I'd advise forumites to not let these boards and GPA delude them into thinking that they know all the ins and outs of sincere collectors and their major buys/collections (or even the majority of the ins and outs, for that matter).

 

But hey, it's this kind of skewed thinking that got me the River City copy of Haunted Thrills #1 for guide price last month, so who am I to complain?